Stock Market Intraday Chat: May 7 - May 11 - Page 5

I'm excited about it as well Philo... got a good entry on uvxy early last week.  Should be an interesting market open tomorrow morning.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Philosuffer 

I am excited about the gains tomorrow. May be 25% to 50% gain in UVXY. Tomorrow would probably be a major turning point in the market direction for the weeks and months to come.

VIX closed at 19.16 on Friday and I am thinking it would try for 30 tomorrow or in the next couple of days, which would be a 50% gain.

Too many people expecting some huge flush today and I don't see it that way at all.  Yeah, we're going to have a down day no doubt about it but a 25% gain in the TVIX in one day Philo? I just don't see that happening.  I see buyers stepping in the 1350 level for a dead cat bounce

Not saying it will, but it's certainly possible (and it was uvxy, not tvix).  Volitility, especially leveraged, can spike very fast.  A move of 10 - 20% wouldn't surprise me.  It also wouldn't surprise me for this market to find a way to bounce out of this quickly.  I kinda agree with the 134-135 support holding for now, unless something else hits the fan.

Quote:

Originally Posted by barbellman 

Too many people expecting some huge flush today and I don't see it that way at all.  Yeah, we're going to have a down day no doubt about it but a 25% gain in the TVIX in one day Philo? I just don't see that happening.  I see buyers stepping in the 1350 level for a dead cat bounce

30 vix this week? whats your s&p target for the week?

I`m not in and it will be another week or 2 before I have time it looks like. Still the media is saying we are strong and will not see another slowdown,,,  remains to be seen here in the market ... like always we`ll see  GLTA

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-07/no-repeating-slowdown-seen-by-u-s-with-banks-to-housing.html

Taiwan's Index started to sell off over this last month. It seems like that quite a bit of unloading does take place overseas first before shares are dumped in the US. Local spending here in Taipei these days is quite bad. The majority of the people do not have extra cash to spend. Most people doing their spending are using their credit cards these days to make purchases. In the past this was quite rare here in Taipei. I am talking about the average people these days as those with money still have money but generally speaking the economy seems to be turning for the worse here in Taipei. Sooner or later the rally we had seen in the US is going to take a big nose dive. Hard to say when but it is definitely do for a correction.

I dunno fellas, I'd be real careful shorting anything at open.  Big gap fill happening here and in Europe and the dollar index is showing a wicked long upper shadow.  Yesterday evening I was sure this market was going down but now I'm not so sure.  This price action goes nicely with Davecash's lunar theory of buying the full moon, which was two days ago, FWIW.  Just my .02, anything can happen in the next couple hours.

guys i'm scared.. the market opens in an hr and 30 min.. what if the gap never gets filled?

Quote:

Originally Posted by InverseProphet 

I'm excited about it as well Philo... got a good entry on uvxy early last week.  Should be an interesting market open tomorrow morning.

 

Going to buy UVXY at open...when could it hit 15% - 20%?

Towards the middle or the EOD?

Quote:

Originally Posted by rando 

Mr. Topstep's thoughts, mine are quite similar:

Our view:
If the markets want to go down, iPhone sales and the Facebook IPO won’t be enough to hold them up. There is a big-time changing of the guard going on in Europe and the markets reacted in kind last night. The problem this morning is the markets have already moved up significantly off their respective lows. The other problem is “everyone” already sold into it. Despite all the negative Mondays lately and all the down over the last 5 to 6 days, the SPM is trading back above the 1350-1354 level. Our gut tells us the worst is over for now, that the Globex lows are probably good, but there is just too much going on and I want to get to th
floor, get on the IMPro and start trying to figure out what the program levels between the S&P futures and the S&P cash have to say. As always, keep an eye on the 10-handle rule and please use stops.

http://www.mrtopstep.com/2012/05/crude-oil-leads-the-charge/?utm_source=wordtwitpro-onwebsite-s&utm_campaign=wordtwitpro-onwebsite-c&utm_medium=wordtwitpro-onwebsite-m
He also talks about how oil flashed the bear signs last week. Look at the hammer candle being printed in CL today, if that holds, it could end up being the bull signal that the market follow during the balance of this week.
I continue to feel that the French results were sold into ahead of time, largely priced in, and that the big risk/fear today has come from the unexpected performance by the Greek "Nazi" (if they even deserve such a hideous label) party. This has increased the perceived likelihood of Greece exiting the EZ in the next year or two. IMO that weighs more on the market at the moment, we pretty much knew the Socialists were taking over in France.

Bingo. Great post as usual rando.

I suggest caution here. While, I predicted a 20% gain last night, the markets made significant recovery since then. I do think you should still be able to buy at the open and sell for some profit at EOD. I just cant imagine market ending in green today. It may start to turn upwards tomorrow. If you are planning to buy 100 shares or less (as mentioned), that should be an okay bet.

A couple of senior traders here like Rando is saying the market would bounce from this level, which means UVXY would fall.

If you look at the UVXY chart, there was gap that would be filled when it touches 15.8, this morning it already touched that point in premarket and probably touch again in the regular session.

Once that gap is filled, there is risk of it going down.

While it is still possible to see a big gain in UVXY today, it does not look as certain as it looked last night.

Playing UVXY instead of TVIX as there is a 7% gap in its Intrinsic value versus traded market price.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

Going to buy UVXY at open...when could it hit 15% - 20%?

Towards the middle or the EOD?

Why were you waiting to buy at the open? You can buy it right now in the premarket session, it already opened for trading.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Philosuffer 

I suggest caution here. While, I predicted a 20% gain last night, the markets made significant recovery since then.

 

A couple of senior traders here like Rando is saying the market would bounce from this level, which means UVXY would fall. I dont want you to buy at the top.

If you look at the UVXY chart, there was gap that would be filled when it touches 15.8, this morning it already touched that point in premarket and probably touch again in the regular session.

Once that gap is filled, there is risk of it going down.

 

While it is still possible to see a big gain in UVXY today, it does not look as certain as it looked last night.

Playing UVXY instead of TVIX as there is a 7% gap in its Intrinsic value versus traded market price.

 

 

Yeah I'm looking at the pre-market right now and it's up 6.88%.

It most definitely could fall...would've been good to get into on May 1st!

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdox 

agree. we're still in an uptrend if you look at the big picture.

On the daily it looks like the uptrend broke, been moving sideways for the past 2 months (or 1 month depending how one looks at it), and now we're on the lower end of that range.

Like I said, it is still not a bad idea to buy UVXY at the open or in the pre market.

ES went to -140 points over night and it is at -32 at the moment. It recovered more than 100 points and going for the gap fill, once it recovers another 20 points or more, it should tank again at least another 50 points or more. Because of this, UVXY at the moment is still a good buy if you plan to exit EOD.

UVXY is at 15.36 at the time of this posting in pre-market. One should be able to buy at this price and sell at least at 15.8 or above.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

Yeah I'm looking at the pre-market right now and it's up 6.88%.

It most definitely could fall...would've been goo to get into on May 1st!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Philosuffer 

Why were you waiting to buy at the open? You can buy it right now in the premarket session, it already opened for trading.

ETrade is popping up with all this warning crap when I go to do that...are you saying it's safe (not for the 20-25% raise) to make pre-market trades on eTrade?

Yes, it is safe. You are just new to it. Read the following full and understand. Liquidity is low in premarket sessions so trade only the main vehicles such as blue chips, SPY or other major ETFs in pre market sessions.

https://us.etrade.com/e/t/prospectestation/help?id=1301040000

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

ETrade is popping up with all this warning crap when I go to do that...are you saying it's safe (not for the 20-25% raise) to make pre-market trades on eTrade?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Philosuffer 

Yes, it is safe. You are just new to it. Read the following full and understand. Liquidity is low in premarket sessions so trade only the main vehicles such as blue chips, SPY or other major ETFs in pre market sessions.

 

https://us.etrade.com/e/t/prospectestation/help?id=1301040000

 

Say I sell a stock on eTrade...how long before I can re-invest the money I get back?

Does it take 24hrs or something?