Stock Market Intraday Chat: May 7 - May 11 - Page 4

nope red day

1272

Don't really see anything that can break this sideways to downward momentum going into the summer months, does anyone else see anything?  I'm more of a long term investor anyways so I'm hoping that this instability will result in good prices to buy back in.  Took out about 80% of my portfolio and sat it in cash mid-March a week before we started this up and down and down and down.

I am excited about the gains tomorrow. May be 25% to 50% gain in UVXY. Tomorrow would probably be a major turning point in the market direction for the weeks and months to come.

VIX closed at 19.16 on Friday and I am thinking it would try for 30 tomorrow or in the next couple of days, which would be a 50% gain.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Philosuffer 

I am excited about the gains tomorrow. May be 25% to 50% gain in UVXY. Tomorrow would probably be a major turning point in the market direction for the weeks and months to come.

VIX closed at 19.16 on Friday and I am thinking it would try for 30 tomorrow or in the next couple of days, which would be a 50% gain.

How are you getting these numbers? You think UVXY will really go up 25-50% tomorrow?

VIX is also known as fear index. Before markets tank, VIX spikes. VIX moves precede markets big down movements. We had a great rally so far this year but that is about to change.

No QE3 hints from uncle Ben, that hopium is not in the cards at the moment

Poor job numbers on Friday dented any confidence that US is recovering

Spain and Italy starting to become major problems in the Euro zone

They thought at least they fixed Greece problem with bailouts and eurozone problem with austerity measures. Change of governments in France and Greece is a major blow to that effort. People did not like that austerity and the old deals related to bailout are facing the risk of not getting implemented. Also, other govts now have to think twice before accepting any bailouts with austerity measures attached as that may lead to a loss of power as it happened in France and Greece.

All these problems point to the fact that a clean downtrend is about to emerge after the rally, and side ways movement we have witnessed so far. Since VIX spikes precede market plunges and markets are about to plunge in the coming weeks, VIX will spike big time at once to reflect such upcoming downward spiral.

Yes, I am thinking a 20%-25% gain is definitely in cards for UVXY tomorrow and beyond that is a bonus and perhaps takes next couple of days.

 

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

How are you getting these numbers? You think UVXY will really go up 25-50% tomorrow?

market is about to wipe out 4 months of gains in a couple of days. F being a bull. I'm a perma-bear. till the day that i die.

So would you recommend being some shares when they open tomorrow and selling at the end of the day?

You're sounding a bit bearish, just a month ago the talking heads on CNBC told me that the economy is strong and not as linked to Europe any longer and that AAPL price target was $1001.  Ah, I love the constant reminder that I only watch CNBC for the tickers.  Heck two months ago they were telling me to buy GMCR, sucks I didn't jump on that opportunity...to want to cut my wrists.

no.. sell sell sell

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

So would you recommend being some shares when they open tomorrow and selling at the end of the day?

I'm looking for a bottom tomorrow (at least a temporary bottom) around SPY 134.50 - 134.75.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tones 

no.. sell sell sell

If they say there is going to be a 25% gain why would you sell?

Wouldn't you sell when it's up 25%?

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

So would you recommend being some shares when they open tomorrow and selling at the end of the day?

Depends on your MO, from a long range stand point I am not likely to buy anything tomorrow since I'll be invested in stocks for decades to come and I am sitting on that cash stockpile that I mentioned earlier for the best entry.  The months that follow will be sideways and down IMO.  I don't see anything that is likely to change the outlook that there is too much uncertainty and not enough concrete to support the market climbing out of a correction or outright downward trend.  I'll probably invest 10-20% of my cash holding each month from here on out if the entries look favorable.

If you're into day trading/options/etc then yes there will be plenty of opportunities to make some money.  Tomorrow will be down with opps to buy and sell back end of trading day, but if your are going that route, I wouldn't hold overnight and I would look for modest gains and quick exits and I probably wouldn't chase after earnings this week, meaning that I wouldn't buy stocks expecting their earnings reports that follow would boost them up as there has been a lot of examples recently of that not happening.

oh you're talking about uvxy. i dunno, your call. stopped messing w/ vix related stuff after the whole tvix thing

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

If they say there is going to be a 25% gain why would you sell?

Wouldn't you sell when it's up 25%?

Absolutely. I even said on Friday to buy UVXY in the after hours.

Try to buy at the market price as soon as it opens for trading in pre-market session. Of course, it will gap up but you should still be able to capture a good amount of the move tomorrow.  If you are worried about a bounce back in the markets, then sell it at EOD. Typically, the trend of the day accelerates at EOD so, buying in the morning is probably a pretty good trade.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

So would you recommend being some shares when they open tomorrow and selling at the end of the day?

same, looking at 1360~ & 1340~ on spx.

Quote:

Originally Posted by o7media 

I'm looking for a bottom tomorrow (at least a temporary bottom) around SPY 134.50 - 134.75.

Philo, why UVXY over TVIX? 
 

Just wondering. I'm not familiar with either but I remember that everyone used to be in TVIX a few months ago so just wondering why you chose UVXY over it.