Stock Market Intraday Chat: May 7 - May 11 - Page 10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Philosuffer 

Relax mate. You do sound like Nate. That 45 shares of UVXY you bought do not deserve this much attention on the board. However, regardless of the amount involved, a lesson is a lesson.

 

Herman suggested selling half but that wont worth the effort as your loss would go up by 50% if you sell those 45 shares in two installments.

Also, if you sell today, you dont have to call Etrade or explain anything, it will be automatically taken care. So, dont worry about it and sell if you want.

Another thing is, while leveraged ETFs decay, it is not as bad as option decay on daily basis. Yes, you can hold UVXY for a couple of days without much worries. I have been holding this thing for last 5 days and it is doing okay. So, yes you can hold it till Thursday or Friday. There are pretty good chances that you will still be able to exit in green in the next couple of days.

 

After last nights blood bath on ES, todays recovery is amazing. However, the recovery is on relatively low volume and I think it will tank again tomorrow.

So, yes, I recommend you to hang on for next couple of days. I have a 1000 shares of it and I am not selling them today.

 

 

I'm confused...if you think it will tank tomorrow doesn't that mean UVXY will tank too?

Or does UVXY do good when the market does bad?

If Volatility goes up does the stock price go up? Or down?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+Interactive#symbol=%5Evix;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

If you're brand new to trading, I 100% don't recommend following some random on a message board.

I did that when I started here back in 2009 with penny stocks, had a 700% return on my account in a month and gave it all back plus my initial deposit.

(tommygun)

thanks needs to go out to Rando for being extremely active today trying to help others and give slight forecasts & opinions on this wobbly price action

UVXY, TVIX and VXX are vix related ETFs that do well when market tanks. So, if the markets go down tomorrow, UVXY will gain. They are inversely related and hence can serve as hedging instruments in the short term. I think you are better off doing paper trading for a while and following this thread on regular basis.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

I'm confused...if you think it will tank tomorrow doesn't that mean UVXY will tank too?

Or does UVXY do good when the market does bad?

 

If Volatility goes up does the stock price go up? Or down?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+Interactive#symbol=%5Evix;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Quote:

Originally Posted by Philosuffer 

UVXY, TVIX and VXX are vix related ETFs that do well when market tanks. So, if the markets go down tomorrow, UVXY will gain. They are inversely related and hence can serve as hedging instruments in the short term. I think you are better off doing paper trading for a while and following this thread on regular basis.

Definition of 'VIX - CBOE Volatility Index'

The ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, which shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. This volatility is meant to be forward looking and is calculated from both calls and puts. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". 

There are three variations of volatility indexes: the VIX tracks the S&P 500, the VXN tracks the Nasdaq 100 and the VXD tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
 

Investopedia explains 'VIX - CBOE Volatility Index'

The first VIX, introduced by the CBOE in 1993, was a weighted measure of the implied volatility of eight S&P 100 at-the-money put and call options. Ten years later, it expanded to use options based on a broader index, the S&P 500, which allows for a more accurate view of investors' expectations on future market volatility. VIX values greater than 30 are generally associated with a large amount of volatility as a result of investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 generally correspond to less stressful, even complacent, times in the markets.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp#ixzz1uDSdpNE1

Seems to be all news/data release driven the last few days. Don't bank on today's close/action to predict tomorrow's open IMO.

I feel like the change in leader in France was digested properly, selling off before the results combined with weaker than expected jobs data on Friday neutralized by good German data and plan for helping Spanish Banks.

Weak hands are out, big money still looking to accumulate, big U.S. banks upped their target for S&P this year a tad to 1450. I'm be swimming with the whales going long a few points with call spreads.

Dumped LNKD puts today, GMCR was weak today, thought about getting some call spreads on it.

One thing I noted today was there was no volatility self generation right at the open, was more of a who is getting long faster contest. 

this market is fun.. it's like a sports game every day

uvxy.. history repeats itself again

Quote:

Originally Posted by Philosuffer 

UVXY, TVIX and VXX are vix related ETFs that do well when market tanks. So, if the markets go down tomorrow, UVXY will gain. They are inversely related and hence can serve as hedging instruments in the short term. I think you are better off doing paper trading for a while and following this thread on regular basis.

Thanks I appreciate your help. But I sold at $14.08...

I don't really know how these things work so I had to get out with minimal losses...But HEY, a lesson learned.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rando 


The lesson learned is worth the cost so long as you keep it with you. Plus, you got out about a dime from the highest price after you made your decision, good job recognizing the small exit window when it presented itself. Just don't kick yourself if the price is over 15 some time this week... it is often hard not to, but if you do it, it's counterproductive.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing...but the stress and obsessiveness over NOT KNOWING what I was doing was killing me.

I assume it could jump up over the next couple days and I'd be a little bummed...But I'd be WAY more upset if $14.08 looked awesome throughout the rest of the week.

Nice summary.  I kind of look at it like neither bulls nor bears have any real cause for celebration here... as you say, the volume was very low, no real conviction, even though we regained much of the original gap.  I think there will be additional negative indicators flowing from EU (isn't this like Act 28+ of the "EU is screwed, no wait it's fine, no wait it's really screwed" play?).

I'm in a comfortable position currently with some stable long term holds and a small hedge position, which I'll probably maintain in the near term.  You're right, all you can do in these conditions is guess, but I'm kind of leaning towards feeling that it's a bit riskier to go long here than short... I still think we'll test lower levels again, 1335 - 1345-ish.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rando 

Well... if I'm a bear, here is where I get a bit concerned. This light volume leaves it wide open for bears to take this down [but today they did not, maybe didn't even try.] The only thing that could keep me bearish here are the index daily candles. But the price action IMO tells a different story. We bounced almost 30 handles into known resistance and almost tagged the 38.2% retracement from 1342.50 all the way back to 1419.75, that is a pretty huge bounce regardless of what twitterites and bears are saying. I'm expecting more up soon, thinking 1381 by close Weds will most likely be tested. Who knows, we take guesses but that is how this all feels to me. I actually like the slow fade this afternoon, it did not fade much but allowed any micro/short term overbought conditions to ease quite a bit.