Stock Market Intraday Chat: May 7 - May 11 - Page 9

Anyone ever thought of setting stops very close, say 1% or half a percent and just letting winners ridee with trailing stops?

Intraday that seems like a good startegy.

I'm going to get out of this sometime this week (UVXY)

I know Phil was trying to help but I think I'm done listening to other peoples stock.

Now for anyone that can project VIX type stocks is there any hope for a rise in the future?

Or should I just cut my losses?

there's always hope, but probability is what you're looking for.

Maybe sell half, because no one knows. Today especially after a few down days and a gap down premarket, we're now in the green.

Do you think the market is more likely to retest the lows or have enough weak longs dumped and whales are accumulating again?

I usually have an idea, but I'm stumped at these levels. at 1400 I'd short, above 1350 I'm long, stuck in the middle right now. Selling off SPY calls little by little today.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

I'm going to get out of this sometime this week (UVXY)

I know Phil was trying to help but I think I'm done listening to other peoples stock.

Now for anyone that can project VIX type stocks is there any hope for a rise in the future?

Or should I just cut my losses?

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

As bad as it sounds Phil said to sell it at the end of the day so I was taking his advice on that...

But now I don't know if I should hang on for a while until it swing back up past $15.27...in a couple days/weeks?

But I don't know how to forecast that stuff...

If you don't know or understand why you are entering a trade don't do it. Try paper trading first until you feel confident enough to make decisions and manage trades. Take every trade recommendation as a suggestion or a heads up, but don't follow blindly expecting to make easy money, it's a lot easier to lose than it is to win. If you are serious about trading I'd recommend you spend a while reading and studying before jumping in. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

I'm going to get out of this sometime this week (UVXY)

I know Phil was trying to help but I think I'm done listening to other peoples stock.

Now for anyone that can project VIX type stocks is there any hope for a rise in the future?

Or should I just cut my losses?

When I wrote that post this morning going 'I don't think we're going to see a 25% gain in the TVIX today' in response to Philo I was afraid someone would see that 25% gain number from Philo's post and jump in on them (a new member).  I see that has been confirmed.

Johndoejohndoes, if you do a search for TVIX or UVXY rando has helped many of us on here learn how bad these things can be when you HOLD onto them.  The timing has to be so precise that you really should learn more about it.  Even if this goes up, you have to ask yourself do you want to be invested in something you don't understand? 

Quote:

Originally Posted by rando 


Your first priority should be to not make similar mistakes you've already made with UVXY, including entering something you do not comprehend, and entering without a sufficient plan to remove emotions from your trade management. Clearly you seem past your pain threshold and should look for the nearest exit. Did you evaluate any equity price levels (example: S&P getting over Friday's low with conviction) that might have triggered your exit? Did you analyze risk vs reward to determine based on desired profit of let's say for example $3, you would only allow $1 in losses before selling? It sounds like you did not even enter with knowledge of whether or not you could exit today, so I'm guessing you didn't do any of that stuff. Don't make those mistakes and you will improve with amazing speed.
The reason I bring this up is you are asking if you should hold UVXY for a few weeks to get out with a profit. This is a losing mentality with levereaged ETFs. Once you exit this trade, promise yourself not to trade these ETFs unless and until you understand the odds that stack up against you for any given ETF. They all decay, faster with higher volatility. Some like UVXY have an additional price erosion that usually factors in, the difference between futures and spot VIX prices. All of this will work against you to decrease the chances you can wait for very long to get a profitable exit.
Rather than repeat the desperate question of when to sell, figure it out yourself and spend your time learning about these flawed instruments, you'll feel better about it over time, even if it costs a little more today, same goes for selling at any given moment rather than holding with hope for a better exit, even if the market reverses and you watch that profitable exit present itself after you sold.

I agree you're right.

My dilemma is I might have to wait until Thursday to trade because if I trade right now I'm going to have to call eTrade and get some stuff handled.

I guess my question is will it decay a lot before Thursday or should I just wait until then so I know I won't have and issues selling it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by barbellman 

When I wrote that post this morning going 'I don't think we're going to see a 25% gain in the TVIX today' in response to Philo I was afraid someone would see that 25% gain number from Philo's post and jump in on them (a new member).  I see that has been confirmed.

 

I was skeptical about Philo's wild % gains because they came without a 95% guarantee. /s

I still think we could get some rotation down by EOD, but who knows, lol, 50/50. If we do I'll come back and quote myself and tell others how awesome I am.

WOW !!!!! 

Hey everyone I actually have my first sucessfull charting prediction...........    woooooooo   goog is up at 609 ! Not saying where it goes next though

Do I get a cookie?

Quote:

Originally Posted by buy4highselllow 

Looks like its going up to me?

(please don't trade on this unless you want to lose money!)

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by rst 


Super Play, jdox!
Have we seen the high for this bounce?

Thanks man. I was actually thinking we'd see one more HOD (around 1372) but if rando thinks the highs are in, I'd say there's a much higher chance (like 1000%) of him being right than me being right.

Edit: Also want to add that I agree with an earlier post of his that if we break 1372, it could trigger a massive RYFOR.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rst 


Where's the next stop after the bounce?

Wish I knew. I do think that if we break 1372, we could see 1385 rather quickly though.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpr 

Did anybody gobble gobble gobble up some longs last night?

Here's a post I did over the weekend in my journal thread:

(it's a bit long, but the work is always worth it in the end)

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpr 

I posted about analyzing the trend from all the different fractals already, but because I'm always going back and erasing my charts and looking for new and different perspectives I decided to do it again and make a little post about how the S&p 500 future is sitting right now in terms of range. I'm utilzing the regression channel, here's some facts about the regression channel and a definition of what it is:

http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/LinRegChannel.html

 

The Line Up:

 

I'll start and backtrack to the early 90s:

 

 

I've posted this chart up plenty of times, Even when the price was above 1400. This chart is very important, it displayed the wall of sellers that ultimately took out the momentum of the run from the 2009 lows to last years highs. I warned that banging up against this resistance could mean a large pullback in the tune of 100 points, and very high volatilty like we saw last year when we chop around off of it for about half the year. 

 

Here's a look at the weekly chart to get closer perspective about this wall:

 

 

 

The next regression channel at bat would be the be the one regression channel off the 2009 low to the current high.

This is also a bearish chart, showing selling over the linear regression line.

 

 

 

Batting up next would be the the channel from the next low in 09. We were cut short from selling and formed another bearish channel as well.

We have to note that there's still support below in the form of the linear regression channel which lies in the low to mid 1350s.

 

 

The the channel coming up next is a very strong channel, correlating with the 20 year channel. This channel was made off the 2010 lows, and big money has had mad respect for it. Linear regression channel support for this chart lies at lows 1340s. Could be the prevailing linear support.

Check it out for yourself:

 

 

 

Another short term time frame channel would be the next one up off the 2011 lows, which is also show more downside until support:

Also showing low 1340s as support.

 

 

 

The next channel would be the last possible channel that can be possibly viewed as being possibly bullish.

Price has broken through ever other channel on anything with a shorter time frame than this.:

 

 

That's enough work for now. I'll put some more work into generating an opinion on what I see this weekend.

But as of right now, next logical support would be in the 1340s.

 

Relax mate. You do sound like Nate. That 45 shares of UVXY you bought do not deserve this much attention on the board. However, regardless of the amount involved, a lesson is a lesson.

Herman suggested selling half but that wont worth the effort as your loss would go up by 50% if you sell those 45 shares in two installments.

Also, if you sell today, you dont have to call Etrade or explain anything, it will be automatically taken care. So, dont worry about it and sell if you want.

Another thing is, while leveraged ETFs decay, it is not as bad as option decay on daily basis. Yes, you can hold UVXY for a couple of days without much worries. I have been holding this thing for last 5 days and it is doing okay. So, yes you can hold it till Thursday or Friday. There are pretty good chances that you will still be able to exit in green in the next couple of days.

After last nights blood bath on ES, todays recovery is amazing. However, the recovery is on relatively low volume and I think it will tank again tomorrow.

So, yes, I recommend you to hang on for next couple of days. I have a 1000 shares of it and I am not selling them today.

Quote:

Originally Posted by johndoejohndoes 

I'm going to get out of this sometime this week (UVXY)

I know Phil was trying to help but I think I'm done listening to other peoples stock.

Now for anyone that can project VIX type stocks is there any hope for a rise in the future?

Or should I just cut my losses?