Mpr's S&P 500 T/A & Discussion

I've narrowed my trading down to only trading the s&p500, primarily through the E-Mini futures.

In this thread I'll post daily technical analysis, price projection and open it up for discussion.

I'll also frequently post educational bits for anyone interested in learning or discussing

new ways to trade through price action. 

A little background on me; 

-Only trade ES

-Only trade based off of techs and psych

-Techs to find s/r include; regression channels, trendlines, fibonacci retracements

Everyone is welcome to come in and post freely. 

I've had a migraine for a few days now, so I'll post thoughts in here as soon as I can use my head again. 

This can be a tricky period for traders until this has more time to play out.

I posted about analyzing the trend from all the different fractals already, but because I'm always going back and erasing my charts and looking for new and different perspectives I decided to do it again and make a little post about how the S&p 500 future is sitting right now in terms of range. I'm utilzing the regression channel, here's some facts about the regression channel and a definition of what it is:

http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/LinRegChannel.html

The Line Up:

I'll start and backtrack to the early 90s:

I've posted this chart up plenty of times, Even when the price was above 1400. This chart is very important, it displayed the wall of sellers that ultimately took out the momentum of the run from the 2009 lows to last years highs. I warned that banging up against this resistance could mean a large pullback in the tune of 100 points, and very high volatilty like we saw last year when we chop around off of it for about half the year. 

Here's a look at the weekly chart to get closer perspective about this wall:

The next regression channel at bat would be the be the one regression channel off the 2009 low to the current high.

This is also a bearish chart, showing selling over the linear regression line.

Batting up next would be the the channel from the next low in 09. We were cut short from selling and formed another bearish channel as well.

We have to note that there's still support below in the form of the linear regression channel which lies in the low to mid 1350s.

The the channel coming up next is a very strong channel, correlating with the 20 year channel. This channel was made off the 2010 lows, and big money has had mad respect for it. Linear regression channel support for this chart lies at lows 1340s. Could be the prevailing linear support.

Check it out for yourself:

Another short term time frame channel would be the next one up off the 2011 lows, which is also show more downside until support:

Also showing low 1340s as support.

The next channel would be the last possible channel that can be possibly viewed as being possibly bullish.

Price has broken through ever other channel on anything with a shorter time frame than this.:

That's enough work for now. I'll put some more work into generating an opinion on what I see this weekend.

But as of right now, next logical support would be in the 1340s.

From a R/R view point, they may take price up early next week before taking it lower again.

...and while I was over-thinking the chart and looks for possible targets on a larger move down, I'm getting the strongest support point at anywhere between 1325 - 1340. 

But as always, I'm more short term then that and I'll be most likely looking for a bounce on monday to knock on the door of that  1373 to 1387 range.

If 1387 sellers prevail on a upward move like that we could go back down to 1360 and create an ugly h&s pattern.

I'm just going for the cookies on the call, but sometimes things workout and the cookie plan pays off.