Stock Market Intraday Chat: Apr 30th - May 4th - Page 2

Thanks for the link to the poll bigbear cause I would have missed it. I think charulz is right about the first thread. I think it's way too long but I have said this before and I also want to point out that it's your post so you do whatever you want to do. I also want to say thanks for starting the new thread. Still friends I hope? That's a joke cause I know we're good.

I kind of like the long first post of the thread. It is easy to refer back to things like the calendars throughout the week to see whats coming. All the info and videos really give you a good picture of where things stand IMO.

Dollar On The Ropes
Sun Apr 29 17:49:18 2012 (EDT)

The US dollar sold off across the board on Friday after Italy managed to auction bonds successfully despite Spain's downgrade by S&P earlier. A weak US GDP report for Q1 inflicted further damage, leading to another round of dollar selling. Headline US growth slowed to +2.2% annualised rate (cons. 2.5%, prev. 3.0%). The miss added credibility to Fed Chairman Bernanke's generally dovish assessment of the economic outlook. Indeed, it seems market expectations of further easing have risen again, with the S&P500 back above 1400 and gold climbing $10/oz shortly after the GDP print.

USDJPY remains heavy too as a result, despite the BoJ announcing yet another round of bold policy easing on Friday. Although the pair eventually managed to scramble higher in the wake of the policy announcement itself, falling US yields eventually got the upper hand, and took USDJPY back down to a two-week low. We keep our bullish 3m USDJPY forecast of 85 but recognize that upcoming data flow will be a critical determinant of near term direction. On that front, there is no shortage of potential triggers this week with PCE inflation due today, the manufacturing ISM on Tuesday, and jobless claims on Thursday ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls report. Always an important number, payrolls will assume an even greater significance on this occasion given ongoing uncertainty over whether the US economy is set to suffer another summer slowdown as it did in both 2010 and in 2011.

Our US economics team is on the bullish side of consensus, expecting the unemployment rate to drop to 8.1% (cons. 8.2%) and for the headline payrolls number to come in at +170k (cons. +165k). For the Australian dollar, Tuesday's RBA policy meeting will be a key focus, preceded by a pair of PMI readings out of China. Our economists expect no change from the ECB on Thursday.

Key Events

30 April 2012 Source: UBS Global Economics
Country GMT Release/Event Frequency UBS Prev/Revised Consensus Actual

New Zealand 22:45 Trade Balance (Mar) NZD mn 600 161 417
Australia 01:00 HIA New Home Sales (Mar) m-o-m n/a 3.00% n/a
New Zealand 01:00 NBNZ Business Confidence (Apr) index n/a 33.8 n/a
Australia 01:30 Private Sector Credit (Mar) m-o-m 0.30% 0.40% 0.30%
Euro Area 08:00 Euro-Zone M3 sa (Mar) y-o-y 3.20% 2.80% 2.80%
Euro Area 09:00 Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (Apr) y-o-y 2.50% 2.60% 2.50%
Canada 12:30 GDP (Feb) y-o-y n/a 1.70% 2.10%
United States 12:30 PCE Core (Mar) y-o-y n/a 1.90% 1.80%
United States 13:45 Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr) index n/a 62.2 60.5

Research Spotlight Aussie Early Warning System UBS G10 FX Strategy

We expect the Australian dollar to weaken over the coming months, but not dramatically - to parity on a 3m horizon. China, being Australia's biggest export market, might cause us to become very AUD-bearish. Mine reports, Australian port exports, Chinese steel production, Chinese ore and steel inventories and the outlook for iron ore prices each could give us advance warning of trouble, but aren't. Most important, however, is copper, which exerts its influence on AUD via risk appetite. Please see http://www.ubs.com/fx for details.

EUR
Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.30, 3m 1.25

ECB Governing Council member Constancio said that the ECB's ongoing concerns do not necessarily mean a new 3y LTRO is needed.

Germany's Chancellor Merkel appeared to throw her weight behind the idea of complementing fiscal austerity and economic reforms with a growth agenda. In a weekend press interview she suggested that politicians might "further strengthen the capabilities" of the EIB, and use European structural funds more flexibly in a bid to stimulate growth.

UK Prime Minister Cameron said the Eurozone is not even half-way through its debt crisis.

Germany's Finance Minister Schaeuble said the downgrade of Spain on Friday makes the situation even more critical. S&P's Kraemer said that if that Spain's fiscal position worsens more than the ratings agency currently expects, then further downgrades are likely.

Michael Meister, a minister in Germany's ruling coalition, referred to S&P's decision to downgrade Spain last week. He said that Germany's position continues to be "that banks can't have direct access to Europe's financial backstops".

JPY
Targets: USDJPY 1m 80.00, 3m 85.00

Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa downplayed the possibility of an imminent round of further policy easing, noting that a reckless approach to easing could destabilize the economy. He added that the BoJ cannot be expected to implement new policy steps every month.

Official Ministry of Finance data show that Japan did not intervene between Mar 29-Apr 25. The last intervention operation took place in November 2011.

CHF
Targets: EURCHF 1m 1.20, 3m 1.20

SNB Chairman Jordan said the SNB is ready to take further measures "at any time". He added the EURCHF floor breach on April 5 was "only for a few seconds", that the Swiss franc remains "overvalued" at 1.20, and the SNB are present in currency markets "at all times". There is nothing new in these remarks, and CHF spot was unmoved.

CAD
Targets: USDCAD 1m 0.99, 3m 0.98

Bank of Canada Governor Carney said that the persistent strength of CAD is a challenge but that the bank is not obsessed with the level of the currency. He praised Canada's employment performance as "remarkable" and said it is realistic to expect sizeable CAD inflows. He pledged to adjust interest rates as appropriate.

 

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Hollande's 'Growth Bloc' spells end of German hegemony
Mon Apr 30 00:21:00 2012 (EDT)


Telegraph by AEP: For two years Germany has had its way in Europe, treating historic nations much as Bismarck treated Bavaria - sovereign only in name. The French-led counter-attack and rumblings of revolt through every branch of the EU institutions last week have brought this aberrant phase of the eurozone crisis to an abrupt end.

"It's not for Germany to decide for the rest of Europe," said François Hollande, soon to be French leader, unless he trips horribly next week. Strong words even for the hustings. European allies are flocking to his cause from left and right, he claims. Not even Austria supports Germany's austerity drive any longer.

On FX, good to watch the above, given the final round of French Presidential Elections this Sunday May 6. EUR/USD at 1.3247-49. offers at 1.3270-75 ahead of 1.3275/1.3300 option barriers. Bids at 1.3200, stops below 1.3180. Focus on any M.E, sovereign buying interest. USD/JPY at 80.16-19, off the 2-month lows of 80.10, interest to sell for break of 80.00 options. WL

Hollande's 'Growth Bloc' spells end of German hegemony
Mon Apr 30 00:21:00 2012 (EDT)


Telegraph by AEP: For two years Germany has had its way in Europe, treating historic nations much as Bismarck treated Bavaria - sovereign only in name. The French-led counter-attack and rumblings of revolt through every branch of the EU institutions last week have brought this aberrant phase of the eurozone crisis to an abrupt end.

"It's not for Germany to decide for the rest of Europe," said François Hollande, soon to be French leader, unless he trips horribly next week. Strong words even for the hustings. European allies are flocking to his cause from left and right, he claims. Not even Austria supports Germany's austerity drive any longer.

On FX, good to watch the above, given the final round of French Presidential Elections this Sunday May 6. EUR/USD at 1.3247-49. offers at 1.3270-75 ahead of 1.3275/1.3300 option barriers. Bids at 1.3200, stops below 1.3180. Focus on any M.E, sovereign buying interest. USD/JPY at 80.16-19, off the 2-month lows of 80.10, interest to sell for break of 80.00 options. WL

Looks like we may test HOY either today or tomorrow.
 

damng metals just took a hit on the 830 news, damn damn damn, lets see where it bounces

what does this mean and how do i interpret it?

 

"The Commerce Department said on Monday consumer income rose 0.4 percent last month. Analysts had expected a gain of 0.3 percent. After tax income climbed 0.2 percent in March when accounting for higher prices."

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47228857

Nice catch, someone going long on a boatload. Fed must need more gold lining for their... well they line everything in gold. Who knows who is buying that size.

AAPL having lunch with Richard Branson in the Mariana later today

Short ES at 1394

Good morning traders!

 

Some action on BKS this morning in the top % gainers:

 

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is making a $300 million investment in Barnes & Noble’s Nook digital-book business and college texts unit in a move that helps value the prized Nook business, the companies said. Microsoft will have a 17.6% stake in a new subsidiary for the businesses in a deal that values them at $1.7 billion, the companies said. Shares of Barnes & Noble more than doubled premarket, up 104% to $27.84 in recent trading.

 

BKS    Barnes & Noble    21.91    60.16%
DMD    Demand Media Inc    9.32    28.55%
YRCW    YRC Worldwide Inc    7.86    20.74%
WCRX    Warner Chilcott plc CL A    22.66    20.60%
SUN    Sunoco Inc    49.24    20.36%
GPRO    Gen-Probe Inc    81.73    18.94%
CLNT    Cleantech Solutions Int'l, Inc    5.37    18.28%
TGE    TGC Industries    11.60    15.89%
CPTS    Conceptus Inc    17.38    14.49%
HAR    Harman Intl    52.13    10.30%

Markets looking weak here, the moring lows are about to be testing on SPY, IWM, QQQ

 

 

 

Out at 13932.

 

Edit. Out at 1392. Geez.

Edited by Bob Korreck - 4/30/12 at 1:02pm

OMG!!! @ Barnes and Nobles

 

 

I'm so happy for them! I never want them to go out of business, without bookstores in America I would be very sad, I practicly grew up in Borders and Barnes and Noble.

I would like to just sell everything at 610 but I think that time has come and gone, apple is turning into a bad investment.

 

 

 

 

 

Patience. This company is a money printing press with a super cheap stock.

 

 

if apple is such a great stock why does it go down nearly everyday?

 

 

 

 

I'm not selling until $800/share.

Actually, from a day-traders perspective yes, AAPL looks bad but overall AAPL is an excellent investment. This current downtrend is nothing to be too worried about, we'll get set in the right path sometime soon and $610 will look like such a low price.

 

That's like asking why it rains in the summer. There are so many factors that affect a stock price. The major factors weighing heavy on Apple's stock go back to its rapid success. A lot of funds and even indexes are overweight Apple as it has risen drastically in the last year. So that will lead to selling. Also, after such a major move back up, you have profit taking. And finally you have all those average investors who piled in when we were nearing the top and now we are shaking them out as they have weak stomachs for days like today.