it has been pretty tight leading up to this, and if the news was that great the USD would of broke 79.05 which it didnt. im pretty far up there in terms of a long on the dx so.. if im holding i must see something, otherwise im grabbing my nuts hoping lol.

eh ill post some charts in a bit..

1.322-1.323

a break past 1.326 would bring possibly 1.328 .. but i cant see it going past that.

IF it does run, a 1.328-1.333 short would be ideal.

I just want it to do it already so i can go back to copper.

Edit: i read somewhere that the middle east funds are buying euros lately and target the US and EU sessions.. what im trying to figure out is why not asia.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mjoke 

 

 

euro ratios

Ratios updated today and reference from monday.

Embargoed for release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, April 25, 2012
Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, April 2012

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20120425.pdf

NOTE: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant’s projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy

Chartists see euro in danger of downward slide

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/27/forex-euro-dollar-idUSL2E8FQ5UM20120427

Also..

The FED remains prepared to do more as needed to make sure the US recovery continues. The consensus view of the FOMC meet this week represents a highly accommodative policy stance. With Treasury’s, equities and gold ending the week higher and the dollar stumbling, are we setting the scene for QE3? If Ben’s apparent “conditions” become realized, an extension of Operation Twist or outright QE3 will surely have to be implemented. A disappointing weekly claim print this week has inspired some of the QE3 enthusiastic rhetoric. An uninspiring NFP release next week will be the key to shaping the quantitative outlook. Imagine what the asset class landscape is going to look like if there is no QE3 announcement at the June FOMC meet!

Below are some other highlights of the week:

Americas

• Risk and commodity sensitive currencies started on the back foot on Monday morning on Euro-zone renewed concerns and weaker global data. Even surprising wholesale Canadian data was unable to save the initial selling of the interest sensitive currency. Sales rose +1.6% in February, more than reversing the previous months decline. Sales got a boost from motors and their parts, +2.7%. The report certainly warrants some optimism about the months GDP report.
• CAD: The loonie came under pressure after a disappointing retail sales print of -0.2%. The February release was the first decline in 11-months. The market had expected a growth print of +0.1%. The important sales volume measure happened to drop by an even sharper -0.6%, suggesting a drag on the months GDP, to be released this coming Monday. Last week the BoC was forecasting a +2.5% annualized growth for Q1. Things may not be as hot as Carney believes!
• USD: US home prices continue to fall year-to-date, pushing the S&P’s/Case-Schiller home price index down to new post crisis lows. The February 20-city index was down -0.8% from the previous month. House prices are back to late 2002 levels.
• USD: The US consumer turned slightly more pessimistic this month (69.5 vs. 69.2) as rising gas and weaker job growth continued to pressurize confidence levels.
• USD: The US housing market continues its long struggle with sales of new homes slipping in March while the February print was revised higher. Sales in March decreased -7.1% to +328k. The February print was revised higher by +7.3% to +353k, initial sales were reported at +313k. Year-over-year, March sales were better off by +7.5%. Despite historical mortgage rates and falling prices, an uncertain job market continues to keep buyers on the sidelines.
• USD: March Durable goods orders significantly missed expectations with the headline down -4.2%, ex-transport down -1.1% and non-defense capital goods ex-air down -8%. Even the revisions were negative with the February growth revised to +1.9% from +2.4%. March was the fastest headline decline in two-years. Analysts note that that there are worrying signs for the manufacturing sector which has contributed significant payroll gains for the last quarter.
• FOMC: The FOMC reaffirmed its conditional commitment to near-zero overnight rates through at least late 2014. Like a good Cbanker should do in his situation, Ben played down the more hawkish elements of the statement and interest rate expectations.
• FOMC: They held to the very same policy announcement it issued in March, continuing the existing term extension and rollover into mortgage backed and agency debt, with nothing specific about whether it will extend the “twist” operation when completed, other than the usual pledge to keep reviewing its security holdings.
• FOMC: Their statement points to another “strong policy consensus.” Upgraded assessments of growth and unemployment for 2012 did not extend to the “full forecast horizon.” Ben hinted that the threat to financial stability from Europe’s crisis and the risk of a domestic fiscal policy mistake “may have prompted slight downward revisions to growth forecasts beyond this year.” That said, projections see the pace of recovery gradually improving to an above-trend pace.
• USD: The market is unlikely to rebuild a Fed policy tightening bias without US data finding some stronger traction. Without this, the dollar cannot depend on a yield-drive play medium term. Investors will have to rely on an ECB and BoJ easing bias policy to support the ‘buck.’ “The marginal shift forward in member expectations for policy tightening was offset by Bernanke’s message that the Fed will do more if needed to support recovery.”
• USD: Weekly jobless claims fell -1k to +388k last week. A plus to the market was that there were no seasonality bumps to contend with. However, claims have remained above the +385k print for three consecutive weeks, something that has not occurred in six-months. This would suggest a level consistent with slow hiring. Last week’s 4-week moving average increased by +6.25k to +381,750. Analysts are projecting a payroll print of +175k next week.
• USD: The NAR showed improvement for the US housing market. The number of home buyers who signed contracts to purchase previously owned homes grew last month to the highest level in 2-years. The seasonally adjusted index for pending sales increased +4.1% on a monthly basis to 101.4.
• BoC: Carney said the Canada will continue to attract foreign Capital and urged that care on how funds are used. Demand for domestic bonds has caused lower mortgage interest rates resulting in increasing concerns at the level of household debt.
• USD: Q1 GDP came in below expectations, up +2.2% vs. +2.5%, while final sales were up a “mediocre” +1.6%. The mighty buck initial reaction was to trade under par relative to its larger trading partners.
• USD: Labor department stats showed that employment cost index rose +0.4% in Q1, down from +0.5% advance during Q4.
• USD: US consumers apparently feel better about the economy, with Friday’s UoM sentiment index rising to 76.4 end of April, from 75.7 at the beginning of this month. One year inflation expectation slipped to +3.2% from +3.4%, which is surely to keep Ben happy.

I think it will be a RISK OFF monday, if not leading into the meeting, OR we could continue to run and drop afterwards.. pick your poison.

1. German Retail Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment. Europe’s No. 1 economy saw the volume of sales squeezing in 4 out of the past 5 months, with drops of over 1% in the past two months. This will probably be corrected with a nice rise this time.
2. M3 Money Supply: Monday, 8:00. The ECB observes the amount of money in circulation as another indicator of inflation. After dropping at the end of 2011 below 2%, the pace picked up once again and reached to 2.8% last month. A similar annualized pace is predicted now.
3. CPI Flash Estimate: Monday, 9:00. Headline inflation has been around 2.6%-2.7% in the last few months. The initial read for April is expected to show a similar number, still above the 2% target. The relatively high inflation is causing worries in Germany.
4. German Unemployment Change: Wednesday, 7:55. The German economic strength is clearly seen in the job market. A drop in the number of unemployed people is reported almost each month. A similar drop to last month’s 18K is likely now.
5. Final Manufacturing PMI:Wednesday, 8:00. According to the initial read of the purchasing managers’ survey, the manufacturing sector is contracting for a 9th month in a row. The score of 46 points is the lowest seen since mid 2009. This is another wave of deterioration after the score already advanced towards 50 points (separating growth and contraction) 3 months ago.
6. Unemployment Rate: Wednesday, 9:00. While Germany continues enjoying a drop in unemployment, the general picture for the whole continent is quite depressing: the unemployment rate for the euro-area rose to 10.8% last month, and isn’t expected to change now.
7. French Industrial Production: Thursday, 6:45. Europe’s second largest economy saw slow growth in its industrial output in the past two months: 0.2% and 0.3%. A drop in a similar scale is likely now.
8. PPI: Thursday, 9:00. Producer prices provide another indication of inflation, and they have exceeded estimations in the past two months. Rises of 0.8% and 0.6% were recorded. A smaller rise is predicted now.
9. Rate decision: Thursday, 11:45, press conference at 12:30.
   The gap between north and south has widened. Countries such as Spain and Italy are contracting and suffer no inflationary pressures whatsoever. They would definitely enjoy lower rates to help them grow. On the other hand, Germany is in danger of overheating: employment is high, growth is stable and prices are on the rise. Fear of inflation has already been expressed by German officials.
   For now, the ECB will keep rates at 1%, and will not introduce a third LTRO scheme for now. There still is a chance for a rate cut in 2012. This can happen if the German economy weakens, and especially if German inflation eases. In this case, the ECB will have a full mandate to cut rates to new historic lows.
10. Final Services PMI: Friday, 8:00. Similar to the manufacturing sector, also the contraction in the services sector is deepening once again. The initial read for April showed a score of 47.9, lower than 49.2 seen last month. This will probably be confirmed now.
11. Retail Sales: Friday, 9:00. After a minor slide of 0.1% last time, a small rise is predicted now. It’s dependent on the German results published before the figure for the whole continent.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-outlook-apr-30-may-4/

Breaking:

SP downgrades 16 Spanish banks..

inst much of a shocker since its a subeffect to the countries downgrade.

http://www.ecb.int/press/pdf/md/md1203.pdf

PRESS RELEASE

MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA:

MARCH 2012

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 3.2% in March 2012, from 2.8%

in February 2012.

M3 components

Regarding the main components of M3, the annual growth rate of M1 increased to 2.7% in March 2012,

from 2.5% in February. The annual growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-

M1) increased to 3.3% in March, from 3.1% in the previous month. The annual growth rate of marketable

instruments (M3-M2) increased to 5.1% in March, from 2.8% in February. Among the deposits included in

M3, the annual growth rate of deposits placed by households increased to 2.2% in March, from 2.0% in the

previous month, while the annual growth rate of deposits placed by non-financial corporations decreased to

0.0% in March, from 0.4% in the previous month

. Finally, the annual growth rate of deposits placed by nonmonetary financial intermediaries (excluding insurance corporations and pension funds) increased to 4.1% in March, from 3.5% in the previous month.

Well good trade as you exited at 1.298 or somewhere around there..

now play the rebound. ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by StockJock-e 

Took another piece short on EURUSD 1.3220, Im hoping this is it for the upside, but i have a feeling its not.

 

Saving some ammo for 1.3250 if we get there.

As for the french elections.. 51 to 48 % .. hes gone...

If you dont think the ECB or SNB will take action as its breached its line in the sand.. i wouldnt be so sure..

Wont last for long..

lol are you trying to piss me off here? ;)  - I doubt it,.. only way things can get worse is the yeilds.. but well see  as it could happen tonight.

Also there is no short volume below the 1.295 mark.. (yet)

As for my balls, i think they just reverted back into my stomach from birth.

Quote:

Originally Posted by StockJock-e 

 

My balls are not that large.

 

I bet you anything that if I go long here, we will be at 1.2850 by tomorrow.