You're right -- if there hadn't been a sell-off (manipulated) before earnings, then it would have hit 640 - 650 easily after the report.
it wouldn't have gapped up to 610 if there wasn't a sell off pre-earnings..
No, I got out even when I got the chance and rolled over long when my entry, which I thought was going to be resistance, was acting as support.
Missed that little morning juice trade/fade, but at least I didn't lose money. I was pretty hard on myself, my bias almost ruined the day.
Especially when I had a clear head hours before...
The rip is nice 78.6 - 61.8 (8pt. range)
I can't hold for any longer my target was hit. I just don't see it going much higher to that 1387 target. I can see a couple more points higher, but I'm not going to fight for scraps at resistance.
I can see this getting pretty volatile like the last few times it was messing with breaking the trend. I'll probably just crash out and wake up early to position myself before the heavy volume pours in at the open. I figure I have time to sleep while they blow stops out until the volume gets too heavy to hold it back any longer.
I would typically short here, but I have this odd feeling that my slight bias of going towards low 1300's may be "delayed", to put it positively. 
A push up in the morning with heavy volume above 1390 would be dispel the short side.
It all started with not shorting where I typically should! That would've set me up to cover on VWAP support and rollover long into that pre open rip.
I would've been on the right side of things then. Another lesson for me about trading what I see verse what I "feel".
"Trade what you see, not what you think"
...a nice article written by Nial Fuller.
As a forex trader, you have probably read that you need to control your emotions and focus on logic and objectivity instead of giving into the impulses of greed, hope, and fear.However, it is one thing to know you should not trade emotionally and another thing all together to actually know HOW to NOT trade emotionally and how to implement this knowledge.
The human brain is primed to work against us in the markets due to the primitive “fight or flight” brain mechanisms that have guided our existence as a species for thousands of years. Unfortunately, these same mechanisms actually inhibit most traders from achieving their full potential in the market. So in order to become a consistently profitable trader it is necessary to devise a plan using our more logical and objective frontal lobe section of the brain, which is the newest area of the human brain and allows us to plan, reason, and comprehend complicated ideas.
By learning to trade what we see, and not what we think, we can make sure that we are operating on logic and objectivity instead of emotion. Trading only obvious price action trading setups that have already formed, and that are not just ideas or “possible” setups, provides us with a type of “check and balance” to make sure that we are not trading from emotion. The following points will provide you with some insight and solid tips so that you more clearly understand why you need to trade what you see and NOT what you think and how to make sure you follow through with it.
• Stop trying to out-smart or predict what the market will do next.
Trying to guess what the market will do next with no real rational or trade setup is exactly the same as gambling your money away in a slot machine or on the roulette wheel. Yet, every day beginning traders as well as unsuccessful experienced traders commit this exact emotional trading error. Rather than looking at the price chart and checking it against their forex trading plan to see if any price action setups are present, many traders simply “manifest” some idea about what price “should” do.
When you trade off anything other than an obvious and visible price action setup, or in accordance with whatever your pre-defined trading strategy says, you are simply operating on emotion and feeling rather than objective analysis of price movement. Many traders trade emotionally after a losing trade or after a winning trade because they give into the revenge feeling that a losing trade elicits or the greed that a winning trade often elicits. It is at these exact moments when traders stop trading off what they see on the chart and begin trading off what they “think” or feel, and it is also these moments that separate consistently profitable traders from unsuccessful amateurs.
• Don’t get attached to any one trade.
It is important to understand that just because you “think” something will happen in the market does not mean it will. Similarly, even if you do find a very obvious and “perfect” looking setup, you should always remember that the forex market is a dynamic and constantly ebbing and flowing arena where anything can happen at any time, so don’t bet the farm just because you think you have spotted a “sure-thing”, there is no such thing in the forex market.
Rather than allowing yourself to become emotionally attached to any trade or any idea about what the market might do, you need to learn to trade detached from your trades. Allow the price action to light your way through the noise and confusion of the market, all the while keeping in mind that you must constantly manage your risk even on trade setups that look “perfect”. Always make sure you are trading according to the concepts of your forex trading strategy, and not just on a “whim”, if you are a price action trader then follow the trail left by price instead of getting off track and giving into what you think the market “should” do or “might” do.
• Learn to control yourself if you want to make money in forex.
One obvious yet often over-looked fact of forex trading is that the market simply does not care at all about you or if you win or lose money, the market does not know you exist, and it doesn’t get emotional about you. Yet, most traders get emotional about their trades and about the market, thus they are letting a non-living entity control their behavior instead of controlling it themselves. You will not make consistent money in the market until you learn to control your emotions and reactions to the market.
Once you learn to trade only what you see on the price chart instead of what you think, you will be well on your way to becoming a consistently profitable trader, because trading what you see and not just what you think means you are controlling yourself instead of being controlled by the market. The key is to consistently trade only what you see and not what you think or feel, this will help to keep you from giving into the emotions of revenge or greed after a losing or winning trade. Traders who consistently trade only what they see on the price chart and not what they think “might” happen, along with managing their risk effectively, are the traders who make money in forex. When you learn to trade with high-probability price action setups while simultaneously controlling your emotion and risk, you will be in an even better position to make money in the forex market.
• Tips to make sure you only trade what you see and not what you think.
It is one thing to fully understand exactly why you need to only trade what you see instead of what you think, and it is another thing to actually make sure you do it. Here are some concrete tips that you can use to make sure you only trade what you see and instead of giving into emotion:
• Stop and ask yourself before each trade “what I am doing?”, “what is the setup?”, “does it meet my trading plan criteria?”, “am I acting logically or emotionally?”, “am I controlling myself or is the market controlling me?”, “is there a setup or am I am just making one up”? These are all good questions to ask yourself before you enter any trade, doing this will make you think deeper about what you are doing and if a trade is warranted or if you are simply acting on emotion.
• If you are trading a specific forex trading strategy, like price action, make sure each trade you take is in accordance with the concepts that you learned in the trading course or educational material. Ask yourself any or all of the above questions before every trade that you take, until it becomes second nature to only trade what you see. Eventually you will develop a refined discretionary trading perspective that will allow you to almost instantly look at a price chart and spot price action setups.
Here's a link to the article: http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex-articles/trade-what-you-see-not-what-you-think
while today was certainly bullish because of apple, it's premature to say that the bull market is now back on track. i think the next two days will be pretty key, with job numbers and especially gdp. if those don't go well, and the historical bias of selling into may, we may just head back down, disregarding the power of the golden apple.
if the numbers tomorrow and friday are good, then we likely have clear sailing for at least a week until may 6th, when france will likely kick out sarkozy. by then we're going to be out of good earnings news, and europe may take the lead on where the market runs.
Quote:
Being that investor confidence is much higher now given Apple's performance, Sell in May Go away starting in June now?
Ichi -
I just went short at 1387.5. Looks like we are thinking different directions off the same level. My momentum indicators were showing slowing as we passed x85 coupled with some possible overbought conditions I think we head lower this evening before the Europe open. I will likely be watching that open closely and may also be on the sidelines when the US opens tomorrow.
I hoping for the stop on 7s. (topstep)
Hope you are doing well. Didn't see much from you the end of last week.
Quote:
Exactly. 6th time hitting 84s, was looking for a change.
It was either that or 78 (which I missed last night)
Happy Ending, please!
stop on 7s again 
I actually got a sell signal at 87.5 with the start of this new session.
first target 84, second 80.
it's a newer signal so I don't have too much live experience with it though.
Any intraday close (5min or greater) above 88.75 negates the signal though
and I'm looking for longs with 90 being the next obvious resistance, then 97s.
We'll see! Good luck and nice to see you in here.
Looks like our targets are similar I have the first at 83-84 and the second at daily sellers 80. I can see the /ES popping (as opposed to pooping) at EU open and the US open. SO I will be watching and/or adjusting my trades in accordance to momentum.
Best,
Quote:
I actually got a sell signal at 87.5 with the start of this new session.
first target 84, second 80.
it's a newer signal so I don't have too much live experience with it though.
Any intraday close (5min or greater) above 88.75 negates the signal though
and I'm looking for longs with 90 being the next obvious resistance, then 97s.
We'll see! Good luck and nice to see you in here.
If we move to 1390 then I think there is a greater probability that we reach 1396 before 1383. The issue is that I have the /ES right on a major level. As soon as the market decides which side I will follow along. I'm short at the moment but if we reach 1390 I will likely flip my trade.
If we move to 1390 then I think there is a greater probability that we reach 1396 before 1383. The issue is that I have the /ES right on a major level. As soon as the market decides which side I will follow along. I'm short at the moment but if we reach 1390 I will likely flip my trade.
There is going to be a battle here because of all the different risk vs. reward ratios that are in effect here.
Wouldn't be surprised to see more chop in between 1380-1390. We can still go as low as 1373 for the bulls to still have a shot.
So I wouldn't be surprised to see stops get ran not only to early traders positioning long here just below 1390, but also to the traders
who are long around 1380; run stops into that 1373 buyer zone.
I'm setting up a short position up here. I figure the r/r is here for a trade.
I can short right about at 1391-93 here and potentially get 10+ point move in my favor just on running stops out at 1380.
I'll look to further my trading by adding another position around 1380 for either more downside or upside keeping in mind the
probabilities of both sides. Properly setting a solid r/r trade.
Although If I don't get my target short yet, and we retrace back to around 1385, I'll grab long with the r/r result of running to that 1391.93 zone.
Sometimes there is more than just probability risk to be considered, as there has been no significant moves relative to the action to show anything indicative of underlying weakness. It's okay I am willing to play both sides, and I am still long but I want to see something to get me worried before I worry. Just imo
There was that very obvious rising wedge maybe became too obvious to everyone? Then we couldn't break that floor since from the previous low on 4/10. Now with todays action (need more confirmation with the next day or two) looks like it might just turn into a chop fest trading up and down between this range. I like your r/r shorting at this point here mpr to catch a nice 10 points. I have some puts from the 137 level I have to bail on i dont know if we see that (138s as well picked up near todays high). 138 level is def. reasonable. If we break this range on volume I'm going to have to say uncle and open up a few tiny long positons that look good..
Also just read IBD as just changed their outlook from 'market under correction' to 'market in uptrend'
Mixed Signals From The Fed
Wed Apr 25 15:43:45 2012 (EDT)
The Fed offered few surprise in the April press release, though Chairman Bernanke's press conference was more dovish. It is clear Bernanke wants to keep all the tools available to the Fed on the table, and was explicit in noting 'balance sheet tools' which are available. USDJPY followed US 10y yields lower on the statement while equity markets were up on the day.
Bernanke remains concerned over the state of the labour market, though the economy is seen as moving slowly in the right direction. Given the views of the more hawkish members however, he believes the best he can do is push for a normalization delay rather than fresh stimulus barring any major economic shocks.
For USDJPY, bulls will take some solace that the ball is now in the BoJ's court and if they pull through with active policy responses on Friday, USDJPY could push towards 82.00. However, with US yields failing to sustain a rally, and risk largely driven by strong US earnings estimates, a structural move higher seems unlikely, especially if the BoJ disappoint the markets with their actions.
In the new forecasts, 6 out of 17 members expect policy normalization this year or next, which is not enough to sway the FOMC yet. It looks very likely that we will get a first rate hike by Q3 2014 or earlier, as just 4 members expect policy firming in 2015. Dollar bulls may have been slightly disappointed by the pace of the shifts in expectations however. As widely expected, the statement repeated earlier guidance that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.
Richmond Fed President Lacker once again dissented (wanting the language referring to 2014 removed). It was also noted that "inflation has picked up somewhat". Earlier, after initially coming under pressure, the pound pared its losses in the US session versus both the euro and dollar after the Q1 GDP print confirmed that the UK is back in recession. The headline number came in at -0.2% versus consensus estimates of +0.1%. The decline was driven by the construction sector (albeit a small contributor towards the UK economy) which declined the most since Q1 2009. The data is hard to reconcile with the leading indicator data and a recovery in PMI readings from the more important services sector.
Key Events
26 April 2012 Source: UBS Global Economics
Country GMT Release/Event Frequency UBS Prev/Revised Consensus Actual
Euro Area 07:00 ECB's Draghi Speaks
Sweden 07:15 Consumer Confidence (Apr) index 0.0 0.0 0.5
Norway 08:00 Unemployment Rate (Apr) % 2.60% 2.60% 2.50%
Euro Area 09:00 Consumer Confidence (Apr F) index n/a -19.8 -19.8
Germany 12:00 CPI (Apr P) y-o-y n/a 2.10% 2.00%
United States 12:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Apr-21) lvl 375K 386K 375K
United States 20:00 Treasury's Geithner Speaks
Research Spotlight
Eurozone Crisis Redux UBS G10 FX Strategy
The renewed intensification of the Eurozone crisis is very much driven by concerns about Spain. The more the market speculates about external assistance, the higher the likelihood of a vicious circle ultimately forcing Spain into a troika programme. Debt sustainability in Italy remains a longer-term issue as well. While the euro has looked remarkably immune to the recent deterioration, the crisis still poses a serious threat. We remain comfortable with our end-2012 EURUSD forecast of 1.15. Please see http://www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR
Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.30, 3m 1.25
ECB President Mario Draghi called for a growth pact in the euro area alongside the current fiscal compact. Supporting the call, Executive Board member Asmussen said that such a package could involve redirecting structural and regional resources from the EU to bolster employment in indebted countries and implementing labor market reforms similar to those carried out in Germany. The announcements gather significance in light of the growing political unrest in the euro-zone on the effectiveness of austerity.
French Socialist Presedential candidate Francois Hollande said France won't ratify the European agreement in its current form and that "there will be a re-negotiation," if he wins the presidential elections. While it is largely repeating his manifesto, the euro came under slight pressure from the headlines.
LCH Clearnet revised its margin parameters for France and Spain. The 10-15y bonds were increased from 6.10%-6.40%. Margins on Spanish bonds from 2-15y were also raised.
Reacting to the demands for a mandate of growth for ECB from politicians across Europe including France's presidential candidate Hollande, ECB's Weidmann said that such a debate is "not helpful" as it aims at a mandate for "monetary financing" of governments - an approach which has led to "high inflation and uncertainty" in the distant past.
Weidmann also defended his opposition to further stimulus, warning that "If our actions lead to the sense of urgency disappearing, or political actions necessary to tackle the root causes of the crisis being delayed or postponed, then these are side effects that are detrimental." These comments support ECB President Draghi's earlier view that governments needed to play their part in the Eurozone's adjustment to promote growth, and not rely on ECB stimulus.
Sovereign yields of peripheral countries declined on Tuesday after successful auctions from Spain, Italy and The Netherlands. The EFSF sold EUR 3 bn worth of 7-year bonds and the issue was met with strong demand, with participation from Asia, central banks and sovereign wealth funds.
ECB's Executive Board member Gonzalez-Paramo said he's "absolutely convinced" that Spain will meet its budget-deficit targets and that Spain has done a lot to regain credibility.
Greece's central bank revised down its original forecast for Greek economic growth in 2012 to -5.0% from -4.5%. Governor Provopoulus urged the country's politicians to stick to the austerity targets after the May 6 general elections warning that failure to do so will put Greece "very quickly in a particularly adverse situation, eventually driving it out of the Eurozone".
GBP
Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.62, 3m 1.62; EURGBP 1m 0.80, 3m 0.77
After initially coming under pressure, the pound pared its losses in the US session versus both the euro and dollar after the Q1 GDP print confirmed that the UK is back in recession. The headline number came in at -0.2% versus consensus estimates of +0.1%. The decline was driven by the construction sector (albeit a small contributor towards the UK economy) which declined the most since Q1 2009. The data is hard to reconcile with the leading indicator data and a recovery in PMI readings from the more important services sector. Our UK economist believes that positive revisions in services and construction are very likely. This view is shared by the British Chamber of Commerce who stated that "Business surveys, including the BCC's quarterly economic survey, have shown a more positive picture, and we believe these give a more accurate indication of the underlying trends in the economy," following the release. We retain our moderately bullish forecast versus the euro however, and believe that there is greater underlying strength in the UK economy than the GDP data suggests. Indeed the forward looking CBI business optimism indicator rebounded to 22 in April.
CAD
Targets: USDCAD 1m 0.99, 3m 0.98
USDCAD trades to its lowest level since last September. We believe that yesterday's comments from BoC Governor Carney arguing there's no 'Dutch disease' in Canada are helpful for CAD as they dilute the argument that it is overvalued. We hold our 3m 0.9800 target for now, but those comments suggest it can run further
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Europe faces Japan syndrome as credit demand implode
Wed Apr 25 23:05:00 2012 (EDT)
Telegraph by AEP: Europe (minus Germany) looks more like post-bubble Japan each month. The long-feared credit crunch has mutated instead into a collapse in DEMAND for loans. Households and firms are comatose, or scared stiff, in a string of countries. Demand for housing loans fell 70pc in Portugal, 44pc in Italy, and 42pc in the Netherlands in the first quarter of 2012. Enterprise loans fell 38pc in Italy. The survey took place in late March and early April, and therefore includes the second of Mario Draghi's 1 trillion LTRO (LTRO). The ECB said net demand for loans had fallen "to a significantly lower level than had been expected in Q4 2011. This slump in loan demand is more or less what happened during Japan's Lost Decade as Mr and Mrs Watanabe shunned debt. Zero interest rates did nothing.
The LTRO "carry trade" is already revealing the sting in its tail in any case since the banks are by now underwater on a lot of bonds. What happens if and when they need to sell those bonds to cover debts falling due over the next year?
On FX, EUR, EUR/Crosses capped by ongoing concerns over eurozone, but still hearing Asian, sovereign, real money, M.E. Europeans corporates demand on dips for now. Offers at 1.3230-50 from US houses, Swiss supranational - little interest now, with USD/JPY lower on Japanese exporters sales, to 81.15-18 from 81.25-30. EUR/SGD at 1.6440-50, focus on test of 10-year lows 1.6250-60 agaim, as USD/SGD dipped to 3-half month lows around 1.2427-29 on hawkish MAS. WL
