Stock Market Intraday Chat: Apr 23rd - 27th - Page 2

About time, took long enough.

Here's a post to paint the overall picture that the market is displaying us through all different fractals.

This was done utilizing the measuring tools: regression channel and fibonacci retracement levels.

 

This how I warned we could act off of that opex trendline..

 

1365-1410 is the channel we're currently failing to hold.The next channel we're on the verge of breaking into has a range from 1305-1365.

 

 

I figure if this past week was liquidation and is indeed bearish continuation, that we begin the process of breaking into that last auction channel of 1305-1365.

That would require a break down through this channel that dates back to last years lows:

 

 

That break down scenario would put us into the range of the regression channel from the 2009 lows.

 

(in which I think is irrelevant, because the channel isn't fully formed yet, which means that new highs would still be in order.)

 

Anyways,

You can see we've been respecting this channel as of late with the connection to the middle of that channel.

 

 

1300 looks logical to me on a longer term basis.

all of this is confirming my theory that I posted when the price was at 1400.

 

    We chop in this 100 point channel before making a larger direction trend move.

Just like we did last year when we hit that opex trendline from the very first chart I posted up top:

 

 

Here's the channel off of this years highs:

Notice it as we regress, the channel range grows larger as the trend is fed time.

This down trend still has much more time in order..

 

 

I'm personally still scalping the price on very small fractals due to the high volatility.

Even though all this makes sense to me, I know it's always best to just trade what I see.

This is a time of high volatility, especially when over a third of the s&p companies are reporting earnings this week. The market looks poised to go down, but who knows how it will react with all the different crap going on this week? 

aapl earnings... they can always just give it a quick pop back up to high prices to sell into it heavily.

Sticking to the 1 & 5m charts for the most part during actual trading as of right now. 

 

I'm very interested though to see if we indeed do go into this multi-month stage of liquidation from larger fractal targets being hit already this year. 

 

I saw Rando post this a week or 2 ago:

 

Edited by mpr - 4/23/12 at 5:27am

Seems we are getting what lot of people thought we would get.  The next big  break down would come via a large gap down right in the morning.  More panic news from EURO too and the EURUSD is taking an absolute .  Anyone trying to play this short it has taken the momentum trade away with this large gap down.  Had to really position yourself from friday if this down 120 points snowballs into 200points.  

Down here looks like a good time to cover the short and position for a pop. At least that's what I'm doing. 

Very near potential support levels.

 

 

Above you can see the green trend lines rising from the bottom right into the chart. Getting damn close to the initial test on those

lows on that regression channel off last years lows:

 

 

 

 

Edited by mpr - 4/23/12 at 5:49am

Good call mpr, I'm learning it's best to cover half and trail the rest if you think there is more to come. I used to let it all ride not smart. I'm in May SPY 138 puts sell half of those off and the rest I'm looking for that magic 1340 number we all keep looking at.

 

 

Agreed. if it doesnt work out then play the downside. Silver looks to have broker to the downside, but Gold hasnt yet

Time to put on your shorts, I am thinking we may even see 125 on SPY in the next couple of weeks to a month. Real bear action is about to begin.

This is no longer Greece play. Now talk about Spain and Italy while Europe is in no position to take any actions as a whole.

Germany tax payers are tired. Netherlands is struggling with internal politics and may lose its credit rating while new elections comes into play. It won't be doing much to resolve the new issues.

 

In the last couple of months, the mantra is if you are not sure play to the long side. Times has changed, now, if you are not sure, play to the short side. The odds are better.

 

 

Its funny how a regular pull back can make you think this. You could be right.. but I won't say 'times have changed' until we break below 133 at least.

Silver in for a beating this morning. Ouch..

IWM

 

Gapped out of that upper channel

i like all these pictures.

TZA long acting well here.. IWM is toast

uvxy so much volume and look at the move

Are all these days going to be "Buy the Dip"?

Looks like a slow day. I'm debating about shorting SPY this week, but if apple beats tomorrow and skyrockets (say back to 600-610), do they have enough weight to make a large impact on SPY? I don't want to lose my ass on an index because one stock has a huge beat.

Very quiet in the thread here today.. that must mean everyone is busy making a killing! Well, carry on then!

 

If SPY bounces I'm going to get more puts on it.  Hard to buy puts here after such a drop. 

 

 

 

Perception is different for all of us. I don't think this is a normal pullback and if I get into a trade it will be on the short side. We should have a much clearer picture by the end of the week.

 

 

 

Nice charts. Can you help nowwhat? lol

Any /ES day traders still short? 

 

 

 

Might be heading back up to 1373?