It's not very simple at all Bob...
Especially when everyone is looking for the "trend".
My thoughts are that we can easily enter into a month or 2 of chop, sideways trading.
That would be no buying the dips or pullbacks, but trading off of levels.
I said weeks when we were snugged up against the huge trendline that starts from opex,
that we may be some extreme chop and volatility coming.
Something that may last to the tune of months and months.
I'm talking extreme volatility. It's really going to send these trend traders to the slaughterhouse.
Here's the post I did over 2 weeks ago:
Here's an interesting weekly chart I made that shows the S&P 500 from the start of the 2011 to the current day.
The green trend line you see at the top was huge resistance last year, so much that ultimately
when it couldn't break through into the 20 year channel it broke down in a large way.
In 2011 when we got nudged up against this resistance, we chopped in a 100 point range for over half of the year.
The channel is moving higher, as is the resistance, so we find ourselves up against the same resistance 50 points higher then last year.
Question is;
Will that make us have a pullback in the tune of 100 points?
Will we at least range in a wide level of chop for a few months?
Or will budge through, make it support and flourish into 2007's range of all time highs?
You can see that green trend line in this chart i posted previously that dates back to 1992.
yep.. you pick one and stick with it.. but you can also pick it apart depending on your time perception and move your trying to capture.
Kinda funny how the majority is bearish now, and its mid april lol. When we were irrationally exuberant in the bullish, what 2 weeks ago..
Markets change fast and so does the trend. but no no.. its so simple!! lol.
GL next week MPR.
Trend is fractal associated. Trend may be up on the monthly and weekly, down on the daily, up on the hourly and down on the 15m.
It's pointless to argue about. Naming trends will always be time associated and contradictory to most.
Quote:
I find it kind of funny that everybody was excited to buy into this market once we got a little pullback now everybody is too timid to take any new positions. Always seems to happen that way.
Right?
We have a massive mark up since December and once we have a correction everyone switches mindsets. Shit does not work that way.
yep.. you pick one and stick with it.. but you can also pick it apart depending on your time perception and move your trying to capture.
Kinda funny how the majority is bearish now, and its mid April lol. When we were irrationally exuberant in the bullish, what 2 weeks ago..
Markets change fast and so does the trend. GL next week MPR.
I think you pretty much taught me this lesson. I recall you calling for a pullback around now, and being bearish as we rose to these levels.
I tend to trade from day to day while keeping in mind which fractal's trend is prevailing, but I remember picking you apart when all you were
really doing was trading from a longer perspective.
I managed to adjust a few weeks ago when I couldn't figure wtf was going on with the price action.
I hid all the drawings on my chart, when as far back as I could and began fooling around, drawing and trying to figure out why we were stalling out.
That's when I pulled out that opex chart and wrote that post I quoted above.
I apologize for being ignorant, and appreciate the lesson. Good luck to you next week as well.
yep thats pretty much it.. just sometimes i get confused (as we all do) and other time associations over ride others depending on volume and sentiment to other attributes that feed into the futures. Its a puzzle you have to somewhat piece together. .. im more than happy someone notices, but im not going to hold someone hand either.. i was never shown certain things and learned the hard way and its something you just need to pick up. Kinda like teach a man to fish saying.... but hopefully it hasent been as costly to others basing trades on what is short sighted basically.. ive been burned like that and is why im a stickler on longer term perceptions. but im still learning and tweaking etc etc.. never ends apparently as the dynamics always change.
in short, trade the trend on the given day, but stick to what the medium and longer term etc is hinting towards (if they agree otherwise its a mind game trying to find the needle). It does switch roles and importance (control/reference) as we all have seen too and recently.
50-50 is what i always have in mind.
Well thanks.. 
I think you pretty much taught me this lesson. I recall you calling for a pullback around now, and being bearish as we rose to these levels.
I tend to trade from day to day while keeping in mind which fractal's trend is prevailing, but I remember picking you apart when all you were
really doing was trading from a longer perspective.
I managed to adjust a few weeks ago when I couldn't figure wtf was going on with the price action.
I hid all the drawings on my chart, when as far back as I could and began fooling around, drawing and trying to figure out why we were stalling out.
That's when I pulled out that opex chart and wrote that post I quoted above.
I apologize for being ignorant, and appreciate the lesson. Good luck to you next week as well.
lots of wierd patterns on the NQ... rounding tops, cup and handles.. both which have applicable targets (2500 on the RT) and 2730 on the cup and handle..
but i also see some interesting fibs which kinda give the indication that we have stopped and move up slightly.. not saying it will hold, all im saying is there is conflicting data.. and with the YUAN move china just did.. im not sure the outcome. but no its simple.
Overall a lot of congestion in current areas, longer based trading programs are dead and are not really making any decisions, but as this will change after earnings reports. I tend to lean towards rotation on more time frames now though. One fact is we are at higher prices, securitization of development has changed irrelevant amounts, and we are prone to more intense shock given extraneous outcomes or unknown events. Add in sentiment changing and becoming unconclusive of anything and you get rotating prices being prone to higher downside intensity as I said. While I am bullish on much longer perceptions that doesn't mean we don't pullback along the way, nor get downside trending on certain rotations. The shorter term secular bull market thingy has been ending. Just means some programs are going to be off and not doing as much of anything hence the flat rotation which means moving down to intrinsic prices. Once we have been trading in this flat period for awhile we may be heading north more, but that could be some time, or shit just melts down because stuff starts messing up lmao. I am just glad I started adding to my downside positions going near these areas as a protector EUO, while not playing the long side that much except for scalping some things. Levels are up and posted. I have been bullish, on most of the rally since lows, not hopping on mid rally. As for the bearish side I do not neglect it when it is here or there, but there are certain levels that must be broken before my subjective bear pants are on. This week will be key in seeing how this thing is going to play out. That is just my price action sense of view though. I am not so sure this weeks earnings will give us the down side thrust to really spin things open, but you never honestly know for something at this context and congestion level. All it takes is for one bigger player to react to something and the pyramid no longer looks the same. Europe still having trouble stabilizing certain items as well. Liquidity is very good right now, but you have to ask yourself is that liquidity "real," or is it even here to stay. I am not bambling, just saying what I think is relevant from certain standpoints. Economic data for the bigger picture is so far somewhat okay, nothing to rant about though, but atleast were putting numbers up and banks are not failing in aspects because of fundamental changes. That is why I bring up liquidity though, because if that disappears, then nothing really matters. Really hard to sustain economic growth with income levels the way they are, but there are signs that those are rising, so time will tell if these types of changes can be sustained. Living in a world of low interest rates can not last forever, and once things get better to certain degrees and the low interest rate disappear, that is when you can see problems of sustainability and earnings start going down the drain because company's "models" no longer are working for reasons they cannot explain faithfully.
James,
I'm on my way out and do not have time to read through your whole post, but I will tonight.
But I read that you said longer based trading programs are not in effect or making any decisions and I would have to disagree.
I think that's exactly what is going on now.
Technically speaking, how else would you describe recent price action?
James,
I'm on my way out and do not have time to read through your whole post, but I will tonight.
But I read that you said longer based trading programs are not in effect or making any decisions and I would have to disagree.
I think that's exactly what is going on now.
Technically speaking, how else would you describe recent price action?
I guess it has a lot to do with how you define "long term" trading program. My subjective thoughts about what is long term may different than what you may have in mind. That could be one reason there could be static there. Long term is such a hard word to use, but I was referring to trading programs that are basing there action decisions for 10+ years of market activity. Remember that much longer term trading is based on economic relevant activity, so price action is going to be much more irrelevant, and thats why I say it will take earnings and then some. There are certain programs that are going to be making decisions after or near the end of April, but there are also programs (keep in mind I am generalizing to broader market makers/movers) that won't be making longer biased decisions until about a year, which would be after the break out of my ellipsis on a weekly chart + some rotation.
As far as the recent price action, the market was bid up to a degree after statistical proven investment strategies had been implemented at the lows of 2011. As the price started getting near 2011's (1280ish) high there were certain programs that started accumulating downside biased positions. This accumulation of downside bias will not stop as we continue to move up and eventually the bid will crack. Keep in mind this is generalized, there are always programs trading certain sides and perceptions at given points, but the big players in the algo world that actually make money make the decisions that make them money, not the other way around. Some people use backward induction theories in auction theory, but that is risky serious stuff.
