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Stock Market Intraday Chat: Apr 9th - 13th

post #1 of 586
Thread Starter 

welcome to a new week, fresh start traders! hope y'all enjoyed the long holiday (easter) weekend! thumbup.gif time to get back to business... so, the markets are coming off posting their biggest weekly decline of the entire year last week! about time i say... are we finally starting to see the cracks in the ice for these markets? here's a chart of the spx daily (pulled from my weekend update). notice how on thursday we busted through a major support line. this was before any news came out... could this be the start of something big or nothing at all? stay tuned to find out! best of luck to everyone out there in the week ahead...

 

230eue.png

 

(these charts will update when the futures open at 6pm sunday -- they are delayed about roughly 15 minutes)

 

*courtesy of finviz.com

 

  

  

  

  

     

 

mktstats_image.ashx?0&rev=634694766276358750  mktstats_image.ashx?1&rev=634694766276358750  mktstats_image.ashx?3&rev=634694766276358750

mktstats_image.ashx?4&rev=634694766276358750

 

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fut_image.ashx?gc.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?si.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?pl.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?hg.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?pa.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?lc.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?lh.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?fc.png&rev=634694712287765000
fut_image.ashx?zc.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?zl.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?zm.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?zo.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?zr.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?zs.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?zw.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?pb.png&rev=634694712287765000
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fut_image.ashx?dx.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?6e.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?6j.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?6b.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?6c.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?6s.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?6a.png&rev=634694712287765000 fut_image.ashx?6n.png&rev=634694712287765000

 

 

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Apr 8 - Apr 14 Filter
Date 8:34am Currency Impact   Detail Actual Forecast Previous Chart
Sun
Apr 8
All Day NZD
 
Bank Holiday
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
All Day AUD
 
Bank Holiday
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
7:50pm JPY
 
Current Account
calendar_detail_star.gif
0.85T
0.66T
0.14T
ic_chart.png
9:30pm CNY
 
CPI y/y
calendar_detail_star.gif
3.6%
3.3%
3.2%
ic_chart.png
9:30pm CNY
 
PPI y/y
calendar_detail_star.gif
-0.3%
-0.2%
0.0%
ic_chart.png
Mon
Apr 9
1:00am JPY
 
Economy Watchers Sentiment
calendar_detail_star.gif
51.8
46.6
45.9
ic_chart.png
All Day CHF
 
Bank Holiday
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
All Day EUR
 
French Bank Holiday
calendar_detail_alert.gif
 
 
 
 
All Day EUR
 
German Bank Holiday
calendar_detail_alert.gif
 
 
 
 
All Day EUR
 
Italian Bank Holiday
calendar_detail_alert.gif
 
 
 
 
All Day GBP
 
Bank Holiday
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
 
 
 
10:30am CAD
 
BOC Business Outlook Survey
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
 
 
 
7:01pm GBP
 
RICS House Price Balance
calendar_detail_star.gif
-10%
-12%
-13%
ic_chart.png
7:15pm USD
 
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
 
 
 
7:21pm AUD
 
AIG Construction Index
calendar_detail_alert.gif
36.2
 
35.6
ic_chart.png
7:30pm GBP
 
MPC Member Posen Speaks
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
 
 
 
9:30pm AUD
 
ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
calendar_detail_star.gif
1.0%
 
3.3%
ic_chart.png
9:30pm AUD
 
NAB Business Confidence
calendar_detail_star.gif
3
 
1
ic_chart.png
11:03pm CNY
 
Trade Balance
calendar_detail_star.gif
5.4B
-2.2B
-31.5B
ic_chart.png
11:09pm JPY
 
Monetary Policy Statement
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
 
 
 
11:09pm JPY
 
Overnight Call Rate
calendar_detail_star.gif
<0.10%
<0.10%
<0.10%
ic_chart.png
Tue
Apr 10
1:45am CHF
 
Unemployment Rate
calendar_detail_star.gif
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
ic_chart.png
2:00am EUR
 
German Trade Balance
calendar_detail_star.gif
13.6B
13.6B
15.1B
ic_chart.png
2:00am JPY
 
Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
calendar_detail.gif
2.4%
 
-8.4%
ic_chart.png
2:45am EUR
 
French Industrial Production m/m
calendar_detail_star.gif
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
ic_chart.png
3:31am JPY
 
BOJ Press Conference
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
 
 
 
4:30am EUR
 
Sentix Investor Confidence
calendar_detail_star.gif
-14.7
-7.7
-8.2
ic_chart.png
5:00am GBP
 
CB Leading Index m/m
calendar_detail_star.gif
1.0%
 
0.7%
ic_chart.png
Up Next 10:00am USD
 
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
calendar_detail.gif
 
49.1
47.5
ic_chart.png
Up Next 10:00am USD
 
Wholesale Inventories m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.5%
0.4%
ic_chart.png
12:45pm USD
 
FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
6:00pm NZD
 
NZIER Business Confidence
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
0
ic_chart.png
7:01pm GBP
 
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
 
-0.3%
ic_chart.png
7:50pm JPY
 
Core Machinery Orders m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
-0.7%
3.4%
ic_chart.png
7:50pm JPY
 
Bank Lending y/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
0.6%
ic_chart.png
8:30pm AUD
 
Westpac Consumer Sentiment
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
-5.0%
ic_chart.png
9:30pm AUD
 
Home Loans m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
-3.7%
-1.2%
ic_chart.png
11th-17th NZD
 
REINZ HPI m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
0.8%
ic_chart.png
Wed
Apr 11
11th-14th CNY
 
New Loans
calendar_detail.gif
 
799B
711B
ic_chart.png
11th-14th CNY
 
M2 Money Supply y/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
13.1%
13.0%
ic_chart.png
1:00am JPY
 
BOJ Monthly Report
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
2:00am EUR
 
German WPI m/m
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
0.9%
1.0%
ic_chart.png
8:15am CAD
 
Housing Starts
calendar_detail.gif
 
202K
201K
ic_chart.png
8:30am USD
 
Import Prices m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.8%
0.4%
ic_chart.png
10:30am USD
 
Crude Oil Inventories
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
9.0M
ic_chart.png
2:00pm USD
 
Beige Book
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
2:00pm USD
 
Federal Budget Balance
calendar_detail.gif
 
-207.5B
-231.7B
ic_chart.png
5:30pm USD
 
FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
6:30pm NZD
 
Business NZ Manufacturing Index
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
57.7
ic_chart.png
7:50pm JPY
 
CGPI y/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.4%
0.6%
ic_chart.png
7:50pm JPY
 
M2 Money Stock y/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
2.8%
2.9%
ic_chart.png
9:00pm AUD
 
MI Inflation Expectations
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
2.7%
ic_chart.png
9:30pm AUD
 
Employment Change
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
6.7K
-15.4K
ic_chart.png
9:30pm AUD
 
Unemployment Rate
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
5.3%
5.2%
ic_chart.png
Thu
Apr 12
1:30am EUR
 
French CPI m/m
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
0.6%
0.4%
ic_chart.png
4:00am EUR
 
ECB Monthly Bulletin
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
 
 
 
4:30am GBP
 
Trade Balance
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
-7.6B
-7.5B
ic_chart.png
5:00am EUR
 
Industrial Production m/m
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
-0.2%
0.3%
ic_chart.png
7:15am USD
 
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
8:30am CAD
 
Trade Balance
calendar_detail.gif
 
2.2B
2.1B
ic_chart.png
8:30am CAD
 
NHPI m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.3%
0.1%
ic_chart.png
8:30am USD
 
PPI m/m
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
0.3%
0.4%
ic_chart.png
8:30am USD
 
Trade Balance
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
-51.9B
-52.6B
ic_chart.png
8:30am USD
 
Unemployment Claims
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
355K
357K
ic_chart.png
8:30am USD
 
Core PPI m/m
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
0.2%
0.2%
ic_chart.png
9:00am USD
 
FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
10:30am USD
 
Natural Gas Storage
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
42B
ic_chart.png
2:00pm GBP
 
MPC Member Posen Speaks
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
3:30pm USD
 
FOMC Member Raskin Speaks
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
7:50pm JPY
 
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
10:00pm CNY
 
GDP q/y
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
8.4%
8.9%
ic_chart.png
10:00pm CNY
 
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
20.9%
21.5%
ic_chart.png
10:00pm CNY
 
Industrial Production y/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
11.5%
11.4%
ic_chart.png
10:00pm CNY
 
NBS Press Conference
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
10:00pm CNY
 
Retail Sales y/y
calendar_detail.gif
 
15.1%
14.7%
ic_chart.png
Fri
Apr 13
2:00am EUR
 
German Final CPI m/m
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
0.3%
0.3%
ic_chart.png
4:00am EUR
 
Italian Industrial Production m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.1%
-2.5%
ic_chart.png
4:30am GBP
 
PPI Input m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
1.3%
2.1%
ic_chart.png
4:30am GBP
 
PPI Output m/m
calendar_detail.gif
 
0.5%
0.6%
ic_chart.png
8:00am USD
 
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
calendar_detail.gif
 
 
 
 
8:30am USD
 
Core CPI m/m
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
0.2%
0.1%
ic_chart.png
8:30am USD
 
CPI m/m
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
0.2%
0.4%
ic_chart.png
9:55am USD
 
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
76.5
76.2
ic_chart.png
9:55am USD
 
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
calendar_detail_star.gif
 
 
3.9%
ic_chart.png
1:00pm USD
 
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
calendar_detail.gif
 
 

 

What to Watch

Monday

 

0715 pm Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at Atlanta Fed conference on financial stability

Tuesday

 

Earnings: Alcoa, SuperValu, Chevron (interim)

0730 am NFIB small business survey

1000 am Wholesale trade

1000 am JOLTS

1245 pm Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart at Atlanta Fed conference

0100 pm $32 billion 3-year note auction

0115 pm Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota on the outlook

Wednesday

 

Earnings: Progressive

0830 am Import prices

0930 am Kansas City Fed President Esther George on financial stability

1030 am Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren on money market funds at Atlanta Fed conference

1030 am EIA oil inventories

1200 pm Atlanta Fed President Lockhart closing remarks at Atlanta Fed conference

0100 pm $29 billion 10-year note auction

0200 pm Federal budget

0200 pm Beige book

0500 pm St. Louis Fed President James Bullard

Thursday

Earnings: Google, Rite-Aid, LDK Solar, Fastenal

0830 am Initial claims

0830 am PPI

0830 am International trade

1030 am EIA natural gas inventories

1230 pm Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser on economic outlook

0100 pm $13 billion 30-year bond auction

0100 pm Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota on the outlook

Friday

Earnings: J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Infosys, Shaw Communications

0830 am CPI

0955 am Consumer sentiment

0100 pm Fed Chairman Bernanke keynote at Century Foundation Conference: Rethinking Finance

 

>>>will this week be up, down, or flat? vote in --> Marcos Weekly Sentiment Poll (4/9-4/13)

 

THE STOCK MARKET THREAD GUIDELINES

  • Respect your fellow traders. This means no insults, derogatory remarks or any other type of behavior that derails the thread.
  • Keep off topic chatter to a minimum. If the market is flat and nothing is happening, we do not mind hearing about your weekend and your hot girlfriend. If the market is moving and trades are flying the best thing to do is post important stock related events that can help your fellow traders.
  • Are you new? Hold your questions until the end of the trading day, or post them in the Stock Market Education section.

 

ding! ding! ding! 

 

post #2 of 586
Thread Starter 

for those of you who may have been out on friday, you missed the release of the march employment report (yes it was released on good friday)... here's cnbc coverage of the report-

 

 

couple of links from cnbc-

post #3 of 586
Looks like there'll be plenty of opportunities for both Shorts and Longs this week!!!cool.gif

Just have to be patient, nimble and quick!wink.gif
post #4 of 586

Sun Apr 08 17:38:22 2012 (EDT)

US dollar bulls have been wounded by Friday's weaker-than-expected US payrolls report, but our view is unchanged - we still expect a durable US recovery, with the Fed to gradually backing away from QE3 as other major central banks maintain an easier bias and the US dollar to be the favoured currency in the G10 space this year. Our US economics team stresses that the soft 120k US nonfarm payrolls print for March reflected 'payback' due to weather effects rather than fundamental weakening, with the earlier weather-related boost to payrolls now fully reversed. Also bear in mind that average monthly payroll gains accelerated to 212k in Q1 from 152k in 2011. While the dip in the jobless rate to 8.2% in March from 8.3% in February came on the back of a 164k drop in the labour force, one should not lose sight of the pick-up in earnings growth amid improved job quality as average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% m/m (2.1% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m gain in February (2.0% y/y). Our baseline scenario continues to feature a 200k trend in payroll growth, which should support US consumption alongside faster earnings growth.

USDJPY will be sensitive to the risk of further easing in Japan, with the BoJ kicking off its two-day meeting today. Granted, we see greater odds of action on April 27 than April 10, but any disappointment on a 'no change' verdict this week should be limited by the dovish signals emanating from Japanese officials. Come April 27, the BoJ should be better placed to ease, having (i) seen the results of the FOMC's deliberations on April 24-25, (ii) adjusted its own macro forecasts and risk assessment, and (iii) possibly restored its full complement of 9 voting members. The mere fact that Ryutaro Kono's nomination for the Policy Board was rejected by the Upper House on grounds that he simply was not dovish enough underscores the strong political pressure on the BoJ to ease further - a JPY5 trn boost to the APP would be a good start, while an extension of the programme to June 2013 and a removal of the self-imposed maturity guideline on JGB purchases would magnify the effect further. The bottom line is that any further USDJPY pullback towards 80.00-80.50 would provide attractive re-entry points for dip buyers. While Japan's February current account and trade surplus data should have little impact, the consensus pegs an March CPI to rise 3.4% y/y in China today.

JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 80, 3m 85

Former BoJ Deputy Governor and current head of the Japan Center for Economic Research Kazumasa Iwata said in a Reuters interview on Friday that "February's action was a regime shift in the sense that the BoJ set a flexible inflation target. I think markets believed so, too". He argued that "the central bank must now make efforts to achieve the target as soon as possible", adding "the BoJ should abandon a limit on the maturity of bonds it accepts under its asset-buying programme" and "central banks faced with zero interest rates are all buying government bonds, and there's nothing wrong with that". Iwata, now a member of a government panel to advise on a longer-term growth strategy, also said that once the BoJ's goal of 1% inflation is in sight, it should raise its objective to 2%.

As discussed in our FX Comment ("BoJ Watching") published on March 30, the BoJ selection drama highlights one important issue - Japan's central bank is not truly independent. One need only check the Bank of Japan Act. Article 3 says "the Bank of Japan's autonomy regarding currency and monetary control shall be respected". Yet, Article 4 states "the Bank of Japan shall, taking into account the fact that currency and monetary control is a component of overall economic policy, always maintain close contact with the government and exchange views sufficiently, so that its currency and monetary control and the basic stance of the government's economic policy shall be mutually compatible". Further easing is clearly part of the desired game plan in Japan.

Finance Minister Azumi stressed over the weekend "it is Asia's economy that has to lead the global economy. Especially, the economies in Japan and China need to achieve steady improvement". Regarding Japan's economy, Azumi said "the nation's domestic demand is improving considerably thanks to reconstruction demand. There have been various factors such as a strong yen and higher oil prices, but Japan's corporate fundamentals are not bad".

EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.30, 3m 1.25

All eyes will be on Spanish yields this week. The Spanish Economy Ministry noted last week that the country has already covered 47% of the planned issuance for 2012, although we note that a larger than expected deficit along with accelerated sovereign payments into the ESM means that the issuance target may need to be revised upwards. Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy said the challenge ahead is "giant".

Japanese Finance Minister Azumi confirmed over the weekend that Japan would hold high-level talks with China over contributions to the IMF to help address the Eurozone crisis ahead of the G20 meetings in Washington. Azumi said "Europe's problem has eased from a critical situation seen last year, but it is not a situation where we can be optimistic. We need to watch the situation cautiously".

The IMF's Christine Lagarde last week urged the US to help backstop the Eurozone debt crisis, as she promoted the need for more "firepower" to the tune of $500 bn. We expect to hear a lot more about this proposition at the IMF/World Bank meetings on April 20-22.

post #5 of 586

Sun Apr 08 19:30:00 2012 (EDT)

Thin markets on Easter Monday holidays, after Good Friday - and with the weaker US jobs data released on Good Friday. The holiday release, sent USD sharply lower, USD/JPY down 1 big figure and EUR, AUD. NZD, GBP up, but then dragged down by Cross/JPY sales. Dow and S&P futures lower as US stock markets were closed for holidays. More downside seen today, though all of Europe/UK are still away, together with Aust, NZ, HK, Philippines, Thailand.

USD/JPY extended losses to 1-month lows around 81.23-25, its lowest level since March 8 81.06, down from Friday's 81.62. USD/JPY gapped down from 82.50-55, to 81.29 lows on Friday after the jobs data. USD/JPY Bids at 81.00-20, good to watch for any stealth BoJ/MoF bids and also Japanese importers/ oil firms. Stoploss below 81.00 - speculation of more option barriers there. Offers at 81.50-60 for now as Cross/JPY under pressure. EUR/USD at 1.3072-75, good offers at 1.3100, focus on key 1.3000 - talks of huge option barriers there. EUR/USD hit 3-week lows around 1.3033 on Friday, its lowest level since March 15 1.3002. WL

 

euro.png

futures.png

post #6 of 586

Sheesh... are you trying to out do me on the first post of a weekly thread?

 

Damn you for setting the standards too high! mad.gif laughing.gif

post #7 of 586
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post

Sheesh... are you trying to out do me on the first post of a weekly thread?

 

Damn you for setting the standards too high! mad.gif laughing.gif



That's funny. I sent Cy a PM and I said it was overwhelming but I thought it may be an age thing. laughing.gif

 

If anyone needs info that isn't in that first post I would be very surprised.

 

post #8 of 586
Thread Starter 

 

lmfao sje.
 
bells and whistles baby! laughing.gif
 
bob thought it was a bit overwhelming too...
 
if it's too much scrolling let me know. i can eliminate somethings. perhaps the charts can go, which is probably redundant since i've already got those figures up on there. was wanting to try this out for sometime now to see how it would work on here.. i'm glad to see that all of it is updating automatically. source code works like a charm. thumbup.gif
post #9 of 586
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbear83 View Post

 

lmfao sje.
 
bells and whistles baby! laughing.gif
 
bob thought it was a bit overwhelming too...
 
if it's too much scrolling let me know. i can eliminate somethings. perhaps the charts, which is probably redundant since i've already got those figures up on there. just wanted to try it out to see how it would work on here... i'm glad to see that all of it is updating. source code works like a charm. thumbup.gif

 

I like, but that's probably obvious lol..

post #10 of 586
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbear83 View Post

 

lmfao sje.
 
bells and whistles baby! laughing.gif

 

Karma whoring
 

 

post #11 of 586

laughing.gif bigbear back from hibernation pumped up with too much energy

post #12 of 586

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/220457-gop-lawmaker-calls-for-change-to-how-government-measures-unemployment-

 

Hopefully they now include the people who have given up on looking for a job in the unemployment statistics. If only the bill could pass sooner rather than later....

post #13 of 586

To all the bears; I'm glad the market look a dive for you but I would be very very very careful about opening a short position, big Ben could step up anytime to shoot the market back up.

 

 

Just my opinion

post #14 of 586
Not really sure what to expect this week, should be a deciding week. Not saying anything bold to claim this, but whoever seizes momentum during early week trading should determine if S&P gets back to 1400 or has to go down to more like 1340. I'm still looking at the long side more than the short side.... but not as interested in the indexes with the mixed feel to them right now. Looking at metals and specifically gold to see if the recent volatility continues... it was mostly to the downside for the last month or so, but there is now plenty of upside... would love to capture some of that with a few well-timed GLD option trades.
post #15 of 586

I say Monday flush and we either start to bounce in the afternoon or on turn around Tuesday.

 

Lets get this bounce in because its the failed rally which the bears really want to see.

 

post #16 of 586

Hope everyone had a great weekend.

 

It looks like we are putting early lows on the /ES tonight near 1372. Its going to be complicated since Europe isn't opening tonight but I expect that we drift up in the overnight session. The /ES has daily and weekly support or lower channel levels near where we are trading now. If we don't move up by Tuesday mid day I am expecting a move down to 1330s by the end of the week.  I'm not predicting only stating a couple cases of how I will position myself based on what the market shows.

 

Best of luck,

post #17 of 586

This week will be a good one

post #18 of 586

I hope tommorow isnt too bad. Looks like a very red day on monday.

 

frown.gif

 

post #19 of 586

All I know is this weekend has lasted forever haha, definitely ready to see what the market does after last week. 

post #20 of 586
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stuie View Post

All I know is this weekend has lasted forever haha, definitely ready to see what the market does after last week. 



3 day weekends are HORRIBLE.

 

 

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