Looks like there'll be plenty of opportunities for both Shorts and Longs this week!!!

Just have to be patient, nimble and quick!

Sun Apr 08 17:38:22 2012 (EDT)

US dollar bulls have been wounded by Friday's weaker-than-expected US payrolls report, but our view is unchanged - we still expect a durable US recovery, with the Fed to gradually backing away from QE3 as other major central banks maintain an easier bias and the US dollar to be the favoured currency in the G10 space this year. Our US economics team stresses that the soft 120k US nonfarm payrolls print for March reflected 'payback' due to weather effects rather than fundamental weakening, with the earlier weather-related boost to payrolls now fully reversed. Also bear in mind that average monthly payroll gains accelerated to 212k in Q1 from 152k in 2011. While the dip in the jobless rate to 8.2% in March from 8.3% in February came on the back of a 164k drop in the labour force, one should not lose sight of the pick-up in earnings growth amid improved job quality as average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% m/m (2.1% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m gain in February (2.0% y/y). Our baseline scenario continues to feature a 200k trend in payroll growth, which should support US consumption alongside faster earnings growth.

USDJPY will be sensitive to the risk of further easing in Japan, with the BoJ kicking off its two-day meeting today. Granted, we see greater odds of action on April 27 than April 10, but any disappointment on a 'no change' verdict this week should be limited by the dovish signals emanating from Japanese officials. Come April 27, the BoJ should be better placed to ease, having (i) seen the results of the FOMC's deliberations on April 24-25, (ii) adjusted its own macro forecasts and risk assessment, and (iii) possibly restored its full complement of 9 voting members. The mere fact that Ryutaro Kono's nomination for the Policy Board was rejected by the Upper House on grounds that he simply was not dovish enough underscores the strong political pressure on the BoJ to ease further - a JPY5 trn boost to the APP would be a good start, while an extension of the programme to June 2013 and a removal of the self-imposed maturity guideline on JGB purchases would magnify the effect further. The bottom line is that any further USDJPY pullback towards 80.00-80.50 would provide attractive re-entry points for dip buyers. While Japan's February current account and trade surplus data should have little impact, the consensus pegs an March CPI to rise 3.4% y/y in China today.

JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 80, 3m 85

Former BoJ Deputy Governor and current head of the Japan Center for Economic Research Kazumasa Iwata said in a Reuters interview on Friday that "February's action was a regime shift in the sense that the BoJ set a flexible inflation target. I think markets believed so, too". He argued that "the central bank must now make efforts to achieve the target as soon as possible", adding "the BoJ should abandon a limit on the maturity of bonds it accepts under its asset-buying programme" and "central banks faced with zero interest rates are all buying government bonds, and there's nothing wrong with that". Iwata, now a member of a government panel to advise on a longer-term growth strategy, also said that once the BoJ's goal of 1% inflation is in sight, it should raise its objective to 2%.

As discussed in our FX Comment ("BoJ Watching") published on March 30, the BoJ selection drama highlights one important issue - Japan's central bank is not truly independent. One need only check the Bank of Japan Act. Article 3 says "the Bank of Japan's autonomy regarding currency and monetary control shall be respected". Yet, Article 4 states "the Bank of Japan shall, taking into account the fact that currency and monetary control is a component of overall economic policy, always maintain close contact with the government and exchange views sufficiently, so that its currency and monetary control and the basic stance of the government's economic policy shall be mutually compatible". Further easing is clearly part of the desired game plan in Japan.

Finance Minister Azumi stressed over the weekend "it is Asia's economy that has to lead the global economy. Especially, the economies in Japan and China need to achieve steady improvement". Regarding Japan's economy, Azumi said "the nation's domestic demand is improving considerably thanks to reconstruction demand. There have been various factors such as a strong yen and higher oil prices, but Japan's corporate fundamentals are not bad".

EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.30, 3m 1.25

All eyes will be on Spanish yields this week. The Spanish Economy Ministry noted last week that the country has already covered 47% of the planned issuance for 2012, although we note that a larger than expected deficit along with accelerated sovereign payments into the ESM means that the issuance target may need to be revised upwards. Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy said the challenge ahead is "giant".

Japanese Finance Minister Azumi confirmed over the weekend that Japan would hold high-level talks with China over contributions to the IMF to help address the Eurozone crisis ahead of the G20 meetings in Washington. Azumi said "Europe's problem has eased from a critical situation seen last year, but it is not a situation where we can be optimistic. We need to watch the situation cautiously".

The IMF's Christine Lagarde last week urged the US to help backstop the Eurozone debt crisis, as she promoted the need for more "firepower" to the tune of $500 bn. We expect to hear a lot more about this proposition at the IMF/World Bank meetings on April 20-22.

Sun Apr 08 19:30:00 2012 (EDT)

Thin markets on Easter Monday holidays, after Good Friday - and with the weaker US jobs data released on Good Friday. The holiday release, sent USD sharply lower, USD/JPY down 1 big figure and EUR, AUD. NZD, GBP up, but then dragged down by Cross/JPY sales. Dow and S&P futures lower as US stock markets were closed for holidays. More downside seen today, though all of Europe/UK are still away, together with Aust, NZ, HK, Philippines, Thailand.

USD/JPY extended losses to 1-month lows around 81.23-25, its lowest level since March 8 81.06, down from Friday's 81.62. USD/JPY gapped down from 82.50-55, to 81.29 lows on Friday after the jobs data. USD/JPY Bids at 81.00-20, good to watch for any stealth BoJ/MoF bids and also Japanese importers/ oil firms. Stoploss below 81.00 - speculation of more option barriers there. Offers at 81.50-60 for now as Cross/JPY under pressure. EUR/USD at 1.3072-75, good offers at 1.3100, focus on key 1.3000 - talks of huge option barriers there. EUR/USD hit 3-week lows around 1.3033 on Friday, its lowest level since March 15 1.3002. WL

 

Sheesh... are you trying to out do me on the first post of a weekly thread?

 

Damn you for setting the standards too high!

That's funny. I sent Cy a PM and I said it was overwhelming but I thought it may be an age thing.

 

If anyone needs info that isn't in that first post I would be very surprised.

 

 

I like, but that's probably obvious lol..

 

Karma whoring
 

 

bigbear back from hibernation pumped up with too much energy

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/220457-gop-lawmaker-calls-for-change-to-how-government-measures-unemployment-

 

Hopefully they now include the people who have given up on looking for a job in the unemployment statistics. If only the bill could pass sooner rather than later....

To all the bears; I'm glad the market look a dive for you but I would be very very very careful about opening a short position, big Ben could step up anytime to shoot the market back up.

 

 

Just my opinion

Not really sure what to expect this week, should be a deciding week. Not saying anything bold to claim this, but whoever seizes momentum during early week trading should determine if S&P gets back to 1400 or has to go down to more like 1340. I'm still looking at the long side more than the short side.... but not as interested in the indexes with the mixed feel to them right now. Looking at metals and specifically gold to see if the recent volatility continues... it was mostly to the downside for the last month or so, but there is now plenty of upside... would love to capture some of that with a few well-timed GLD option trades.

I say Monday flush and we either start to bounce in the afternoon or on turn around Tuesday.

 

Lets get this bounce in because its the failed rally which the bears really want to see.

 

Hope everyone had a great weekend.

 

It looks like we are putting early lows on the /ES tonight near 1372. Its going to be complicated since Europe isn't opening tonight but I expect that we drift up in the overnight session. The /ES has daily and weekly support or lower channel levels near where we are trading now. If we don't move up by Tuesday mid day I am expecting a move down to 1330s by the end of the week.  I'm not predicting only stating a couple cases of how I will position myself based on what the market shows.

 

Best of luck,

This week will be a good one

I hope tommorow isnt too bad. Looks like a very red day on monday.

 

 

All I know is this weekend has lasted forever haha, definitely ready to see what the market does after last week. 

3 day weekends are HORRIBLE.