A4O's Futures Chart Analysis (among other things) and Fundamental Discussion - Page 3
Areas of importance to watch for me. I would guess that probably have to interact with the upper trend line from the descending blue channel before anything though.
Looks like crude moved out of my channel but gave back any signs of strength. I think we might need to test the 102 level again, and anything below is probably stop hunting on bigger time frames. A break of the green upward thingy would be annoying so I would maybe play the high 109's tight and then a direct test of the upward green thing more moderate, but the fact that the chances of that happening all in one day tomorrow are slim leave room for a reaction before that within a one day period. I guess also watch the LoD from Fridays session for a break below to initiate the trend, or a failed test of intra high's.
Kind of subjective chart, but we are starting below the upper trend line from the descending channel so likely there will be initial resistance there. This will need to be updated at open monday and close for various confirmations on the given trend.
My idea would be that we are just reacting with the fib retracement and the upper trend line from the descending channel is a lil bit of resistance. After just testing the fib retracement and getting rejected trend is down biased for now on the monthly candle. The support on the longer term chart here to me would be the the lower trend line on the descending channel and the candle body high at the last green candle of 2011.
Traders will probably be flocking to this on Monday if US goes red early on bad bond auction results in Europe
Thought this would be easier to read/look at/analyze with the black background.
Important levels on SPX. Flat attitude going into next month probably, could have downside bias though.
The main thing to notice I think about this crazy looking VIX chart is the fact that after every approximate timeline segment the trend is somewhat established, but sometimes in a more minute way. It looks to me like there are multiple time period's ticking over that are going to be relatively close in timings, as well as the blue ellipsis ending, which has been the basis of some VIX development. Severely changing volatility is a somewhat given then based on this imo.
Adjusted some supports to the downside as needed, descending channel not really adjusted, but a re-test of resistance levels may be a chance to re-accumulate short positions. I still think there is downward pressure that needs to bleed its way out, and I also think the support levels I adjusted need to be tested. My stance has been bearish which has payed off, but I think as the price fluctuates more target areas and levels can be moved.
My copper weekly chart for a r2r estimation on where price is now.
Edited by apples4oranges - 8/25/12 at 3:27pm
Price should just be rotating until close with upside bias according to this chart
I would expect next week's candle to rotate down initially, and anything below the red upper descending trend line is stop hunting on bigger time frames.
Anything below the red horizontal line is support and anything below the upward sloping green line is stop hunting.
I think I was wrong on my upside resistance, so I moved my level of importance up. Anything below the solid upward sloping red line and the price is probably going to gain follow through until the green dotted line which is my est. target. A break to the upside and I don't have trouble taking that mainly because there was no real pattern before. I would still be cautious at the 3.8 level as there will be profit taking there in general.
I am using the same levels as last week on the daily chart for intra flipping. Looks like consolidation under my R1 for now though, so just rotation for the piranha in bot land. May get 3-4 test of the descending channel support as well as the marked S1.
Will try to post this Monday, but just look to see which side we open on. Judge sentiment and the relative action.
Chop house seems to have been agreeing with the middle lower fan, as they are NOMNOMing everything below it. I would watch the middle lower green fan though because we got rejected with only a low volume test. Look for a 70-80 degree rotation due from the volatility for now.
I will be a buyer in the 570-580 range.
According to this chart I would be expecting rotation for next month's candle on the fib level for most of the time period. A test above the the descending blue upper trend line seems likely within the next two sessions.
I expect price to be rotating on the upper brown horizontal trend line and test the ascending green upper trend line. Anything above it early on is likely stop hunting. I think a test of the descending red upper trend line after the green one I referenced could happen setting up for a decently sized lower wick on the candle when the session closes.
Trading in what looks like an ascending wedge , at least a small one. Looks like the daily is setting up for a decent short soon, but looks like the tests of supports will come first. I like the idea of buying into support here and selling into a break above the descending trend line from the peak. I think I would be evaluating the short setup I just mentioned in more detail at that point. Anything slightly below the 103 level appears to be a sound entry for the trade I am referencing.
This shows my levels to watch for rotation within on different time frames. Lines up with congestion slightly below the 103 level.
I don't have levels for the different attributes, but I would be looking for a test above near the top of the triangle which will get rejected and then a test below the bottom piece of the triangle which will also get rejected, but I would probably be looking for some type of doji close. There is a fight among differing trends which should be generating some interesting self generation.
I would be looking for a test of the blue and green fan lines that were just broken.
This was really just to support any bearish thesis that maybe would end up or could end up having some follow through. I will be watching UVXY this week and ready to make entries upon the proper conditions. If the regression channel does not hold then I would be looking for range bound activity under the green dotted trend line.
Edited by apples4oranges - 8/25/12 at 3:34pm
There was the hourly close right inside the ellipsis too that led to more confirmation being received. Looks to be trading on top of the channel I highlighted now.
Ed: I think I should have made the reference point the high at the last peak. Would love for someone to tell me?
Edited by apples4oranges - 6/29/12 at 3:05pm