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A4O's Futures Chart Analysis (among other things) and Fundamental Discussion - Page 3

post #41 of 66
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ES 4-14-2012 1hr.JPG

 

My own levels to watch on bigger time frames. 

post #42 of 66
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april H 15.JPG

post #43 of 66
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post #44 of 66
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EUR-USD april-14-2012 daily chart.JPG

post #45 of 66
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tlt daily.JPG

 

Areas of importance to watch for me. I would guess that probably have to interact with the upper trend line from the descending blue channel before anything though. 

 

Crude daily.JPG

 

Looks like crude moved out of my channel but gave back any signs of strength. I think we might need to test the 102 level again, and anything below is probably stop hunting on bigger time frames. A break of the green upward thingy would be annoying so I would maybe play the high 109's tight and then a direct test of the upward green thing more moderate, but the fact that the chances of that happening all in one day tomorrow are slim leave room for a reaction before that within a one day period. I guess also watch the LoD from Fridays session for a break below to initiate the trend, or a failed test of intra high's.

 

Crude weekly.JPG

 

Kind of subjective chart, but we are starting below the upper trend line from the descending channel so likely there will be initial resistance there. This will need to be updated at open monday and close for various confirmations on the given trend.

 

Crude monthly.JPG

 

My idea would be that we are just reacting with the fib retracement and the upper trend line from the descending channel is a lil bit of resistance.  After just testing the fib retracement and getting rejected trend is down biased for now on the monthly candle. The support on the longer term chart here to me would be the the lower trend line on the descending channel and the candle body high at the last green candle of 2011.

 

 

EUO daily 4-14-2012.JPG

 

Traders will probably be flocking to this on Monday if US goes red early on bad bond auction results in Europe

 

DJIA weekly TA April 2012.JPG

 

Thought this would be easier to read/look at/analyze with the black background.

 

 

 

SPX weekly.JPG

 

Important levels on SPX. Flat attitude going into next month probably, could have downside bias though.

 

GOLD weekly fib puzzle.JPG

GOLD weekly fib puzzle.JPG

 

Gold daily fib fans 4-14-2012.JPG

 

Sine wave analysis SPX weekly.JPG

 

VIX monthly time period analysis.JPG

The main thing to notice I think about this crazy looking VIX chart is the fact that after every approximate timeline segment the trend is somewhat established, but sometimes in a more minute way. It looks to me like there are multiple time period's ticking over that are going to be relatively close in timings, as well as the blue ellipsis ending, which has been the basis of some VIX development. Severely changing volatility is a somewhat given then based on this imo.

 

 

ES daily levels to watch 4-15-2012.JPG

 

DX daily levels 4-15-2012.JPG

 

Copper daily.JPG

 

Adjusted some supports to the downside as needed, descending channel not really adjusted, but a re-test of resistance levels may be a chance to re-accumulate short positions. I still think there is downward pressure that needs to bleed its way out, and I also think the support levels I adjusted need to be tested. My stance has been bearish which has payed off, but I think as the price fluctuates more target areas and levels can be moved.

 

Copper weekly.JPG

 

My copper weekly chart for a r2r estimation on where price is now.

ES 1 min 4-15-2012.JPG


Edited by apples4oranges - 8/25/12 at 3:27pm
post #46 of 66
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ES 4-15-2012.JPG

post #47 of 66
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ES 1hr 4-20-2012.JPG

post #48 of 66
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ES 1hr 4-20-2012 picture 2.JPG

post #49 of 66
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ES 1 hr 4-21-2012.JPG

post #50 of 66
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wtic monthly.JPG

 

Price should just be rotating until close with upside bias according to this chart

 

 

WTIC weekly.JPG

 

I would expect next week's candle to rotate down initially, and anything below the red upper descending trend line is stop hunting on bigger time frames.

 

 

 

Anything below the red horizontal line is support and anything below the upward sloping green line is stop hunting.

 

Copper daily.JPG

 

I think I was wrong on my upside resistance, so I moved my level of importance up. Anything below the solid upward sloping red line and the price is probably going to gain follow through until the green dotted line which is my est. target. A break to the upside and I don't have trouble taking that mainly because there was no real pattern before. I would still be cautious at the 3.8 level as there will be profit taking there in general.

 

Copper daily.JPG

 

 

I am using the same levels as last week on the daily chart for intra flipping. Looks like consolidation under my R1 for now though, so just rotation for the piranha in bot land. May get 3-4 test of the descending channel support as well as the marked S1.

 

Gold weekly.JPG

 

Will try to post this Monday, but just look to see which side we open on. Judge sentiment and the relative action.

 

Gold daily.JPG

 

Chop house seems to have been agreeing with the middle lower fan, as they are NOMNOMing everything below it. I would watch the middle lower green fan though because we got rejected with only a low volume test. Look for a 70-80 degree rotation due from the volatility for now.

 

goog daily.JPG

 

 

I will be a buyer in the 570-580 range.

 

post #51 of 66
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VIX daily.JPG

post #52 of 66
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post #53 of 66
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DX daily.JPG

 

Just need some volume confirmation and a test of support after to really identify any type of continuation to the general trend.


Edited by apples4oranges - 4/22/12 at 5:49pm
post #54 of 66
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Health care tickers for the first week of may.JPG

post #55 of 66
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SPX 4-28-2012 daily.JPG

post #56 of 66
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eur-usd daily.JPG

 

DX daily.JPG

Copper weekly.JPG

 

Copper daily.JPG

 

Crude monthly.JPG

 

According to this chart I would be expecting rotation for next month's candle on the fib level for most of the time period. A test above the the descending blue upper trend line seems likely within the next two sessions.

 

WTIC weekly.JPG

 

I expect price to be rotating on the upper brown horizontal trend line and test the ascending green upper trend line. Anything above it early on is likely stop hunting. I think a test of the descending red upper trend line after the green one I referenced could happen setting up for a decently sized lower wick on the candle when the session closes.

 

WTIC daily.JPG

 

Trading in what looks like an ascending wedge , at least a small one. Looks like the daily is setting up for a decent short soon, but looks like the tests of supports will come first. I like the idea of buying into support here and selling into a break above the descending trend line from the peak. I think I would be evaluating the short setup I just mentioned in more detail at that point. Anything slightly below the 103 level appears to be a sound entry for the trade I am referencing.

 

 

WTIC daily ToS chart with rotation guide lines.JPG

 

This shows my levels to watch for rotation within on different time frames. Lines up with congestion slightly below the 103 level.

 

Gold weekly.JPG

 

I don't have levels for the different attributes, but I would be looking for a test above near the top of the triangle which will get rejected and then a test below the bottom piece of the triangle which will also get rejected, but I would probably be looking for some type of doji close. There is a fight among differing trends which should be generating some interesting  self generation.

 

 

Gold daily fib fans.JPG

 

I would be looking for a test of the blue and green fan lines that were just broken.

 

VIX daily.JPG

 

This was really just to support any bearish thesis that maybe would end up or could end up having some follow through. I will be watching UVXY this week and ready to make entries upon the proper conditions. If the regression channel does not hold then I would be looking for range bound activity under the green dotted trend line.

 

 

Sine wave analysis SPX weekly.JPG

SPX weekly.JPG


Edited by apples4oranges - 8/25/12 at 3:34pm
post #57 of 66
Thread Starter 

ES 1hr 4-28-2012.JPG

 

There was the hourly close right inside the ellipsis too that led to more confirmation being received. Looks to be trading on top of the channel I highlighted now.

 

Ed: I think I should have made the reference point the high at the last peak. Would love for someone to tell me?


Edited by apples4oranges - 6/29/12 at 3:05pm
post #58 of 66
Thread Starter 

ES 1hr MOH.JPG

 

I think the most reliable approach from a shorter term perspective would to be taking a rotation bias strategy for this week. These are a few levels on the intra on I want to watch as well as some bubbles.


Edited by apples4oranges - 5/1/12 at 11:04pm
post #59 of 66
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NQ short 5-1-2012.JPG

post #60 of 66
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GE and TSN daily charts.PNG

 

Some important things to watch regarding GE and TSN. Starting this off again ever since the jinxing NQ trade I had that was going to be a swing trade that I got stopped out on by 3 ticks on exhaustion in the AH. My luck has been shitty ever since then, let's see if that can change.

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