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AAPL $1000 Target? Here we go! - Page 2

post #21 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by tidalxwave View Post


  It can literally change its entire strategy/products and become a diaper selling company overnight. 

 



Ah, I see you've heard of the new iPoop product?

post #22 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by TroyGuy View Post



Ah, I see you've heard of the new iPoop product?



Yeah, that was after I saw you can rent a real iBaby for $2,000/month!

post #23 of 61

Mark my words, AAPL will NOT hit $1,000 in the next 60 months, let alone the next 12 months.  Keep buying it so the big players can sell out of their positions for big profits.  I see AAPL at $300 in 12 months before I see it at $1,000.

 

Signed,

long-term bear who sees deflationary depression on the horizon.

post #24 of 61
yea the first of these dorks i saw was a couple weeks ago...think he said by eoy 2013 rolleyes.gif
post #25 of 61
Thread Starter 

The sell side of the discussion:

 

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.ca/2012/04/apple-holding-versus-folding.html

 

 

So, why did I choose to sell Apple? It is because my fellow-stockholders in the company are making me a little nervous. As I look at Apple's current stockholders, here is what I see:

  1. Apple has become a momentum play: Much as I would like to believe that everyone who has been jumping on the Apple bandwagon in the last year is investing for the right reason, i.e.. because they see good value in the stock, Apple has become the ultimate momentum play. In effect, the biggest reason Apple’s stock price is going up now is because it has gone up in the recent past, not because of any news stories or information coming about about the company. Don’t get me wrong. Momentum is a powerful force in markets and I had a post on the power of momentum investing strategies. As an intrinsic value investor, though, it is not only not my cup of tea but it also delinks price from intrinsic value; put differently, I don't have a competitive edge in the momentum game. 
  2. Institutional favorite: Apple is now an institutional favorite, taking center place in almost every large institutional investor’s portfolio. Note that this is related to the first point, since institutional investors are creatures of momentum, buying stocks that have gone up and dumping stocks that have dropped. So, what is my problem with this? First, institutional investors are a fickle crowd, who can quickly turn on stocks that they love.... Second, as a contrarian, my instinct tells me that if institutional investors collectively think that a stock is good, it is time for me to reassess. 
  3. Mixed Dividend Clientele: Apple was a momentum stock and an institutional favorite the last time I posted as well.  For me, the tipping point was Apple’s decision to institute a dividend. Can they afford it? Of course, but I think it was a tactical error at two levels. First, it represents a break from its recent and mostly successful past. For  the last 15 years, Apple has been held by stockholders who were comfortable with its policy of no dividends and high quality growth, and were willing to claim their rewards in price appreciation. By paying a dividend, Apple has opened it doors to a “dividend seeking” clientele, who not only want to see dividends paid out but want to see growth in these dividends. In fact, many of the investors who are new to Apple stock in the last few months are from this group. The clash between what the “old price appreciation” stockholders in Apple think is best and what the “new dividend” stockholders is not significant at the moment, but it will rise to the surface when things don’t go well. We are a bad earnings report or a botched new product away from a full fledged battle between these groups, with Apple's managers in the middle. Second, in my earlier post, I noted  that it would be in Apple’s best interests to put this cash issue behind them decisively by announcing a shockingly large buyback and getting back to business. In many ways, what Apple has done (in announcing a small stock buyback and a dividend) will ensure that the cash question will be a major distraction for the long term.
post #26 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhythmdoctor View Post

Mark my words, AAPL will NOT hit $1,000 in the next 60 months, let alone the next 12 months.  Keep buying it so the big players can sell out of their positions for big profits.  I see AAPL at $300 in 12 months before I see it at $1,000.

 

Signed,

long-term bear who sees deflationary depression on the horizon.



Have to agree with this. This AAPL trade is getting crowded...just like Gold was (which I'm also very bearish on). Not to mention I'm not a fan of AAPL's 'innovation' anymore, if you can even call it that.

 

Also agree to the deflationary period ...i.e. a market crash is coming after the election banana.gif

post #27 of 61

Until a better product comes along, all the money that is going into Apple's revenue is not going to flow elsewhere.  One of the reasons why Apple is doing so great is because so many people are willing to pay a huge premium for their products.  If we don't see another company, those same customers will be buying the new version of whatever Apple products they currently own.  The same people who buy iPhone4S will be buying iPhone6.  Nothing changes except Apple gets more money as they continue to expand.

 

Its tough to predict a 300 point drop from a company that is in the beginning stages of growth.  The years before iPod don't really count because Apple was purely a Macintosh computer company.  And we all know how Dell and other computer hardware companies are doing at the moment.

 

If the TV is a flop or marketed/priced wrong, then 300 is believable.  Given their secrecy about everything, I hardly doubt their products will end after iPad/iPhone.  And all the existing customers will lure in new customers which continues the circle of life.

 

Apple may not hit 1000 given how many shares are outstanding and its market cap, but it will be a lot higher than where it is right now.  A 100 point increase will may so many people money.  It comes down to whether those people will realize profits or continue riding the wave.

post #28 of 61

I stopped playing the game of timing "when" the market will crash but I still believe whole-heartedly that it will.  I thought it would have crashed by now but I guess you can't underestimate the Fed's manipulative policies.  At this point I have no idea when but your election timing makes as much sense as anything else.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by o7media View Post



Have to agree with this. This AAPL trade is getting crowded...just like Gold was (which I'm also very bearish on). Not to mention I'm not a fan of AAPL's 'innovation' anymore, if you can even call it that.

 

Also agree to the deflationary period ...i.e. a market crash is coming after the election banana.gif



 

post #29 of 61

Well, ultimately the fate of AAPL is reliant on the trend of the major indices.  If the market starts declining, AAPL will too regardless of the superiority of it's products and regardless of revenue.  IF the overall market starts tanking it doesn't matter if AAPL is bringing in record profits every month - their stock price will suffer.  Stock price is based purely on perception and if people are fearful of a stock market collapse, AAPL will fall harder than any other company.  The bigger they are the harder they fall.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by tidalxwave View Post

Until a better product comes along, all the money that is going into Apple's revenue is not going to flow elsewhere.  One of the reasons why Apple is doing so great is because so many people are willing to pay a huge premium for their products.  If we don't see another company, those same customers will be buying the new version of whatever Apple products they currently own.  The same people who buy iPhone4S will be buying iPhone6.  Nothing changes except Apple gets more money as they continue to expand.

 

Its tough to predict a 300 point drop from a company that is in the beginning stages of growth.  The years before iPod don't really count because Apple was purely a Macintosh computer company.  And we all know how Dell and other computer hardware companies are doing at the moment.

 

If the TV is a flop or marketed/priced wrong, then 300 is believable.  Given their secrecy about everything, I hardly doubt their products will end after iPad/iPhone.  And all the existing customers will lure in new customers which continues the circle of life.

 

Apple may not hit 1000 given how many shares are outstanding and its market cap, but it will be a lot higher than where it is right now.  A 100 point increase will may so many people money.  It comes down to whether those people will realize profits or continue riding the wave.



 

post #30 of 61

Apple is not going to lose half its value in the next 12 months, regardless of what the market does. Market can crash down to 1100 and apple wont see 300. Yea it may correct, but $300?

 

Aren't you the same guy that was buying Jan13 like $190 puts last year?

 

I dont have any thoughts about $1000 price target, i think its far fetched but $300? lets be real here.

post #31 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by kylestt View Post

Apple is not going to lose half its value in the next 12 months, regardless of what the market does. Market can crash down to 1100 and apple wont see 300. Yea it may correct, but $300?

 

Aren't you the same guy that was buying Jan13 like $190 puts last year?

 

I dont have any thoughts about $1000 price target, i think its far fetched but $300? lets be real here.



Lettuce be cereal here guys, Apple will fall down to $150 after its Q1 earnings are released.

post #32 of 61
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Venom08 View Post



Lettuce be cereal here guys, Apple will fall down to $150 after its Q1 earnings are released.


 

Is this some sort of subliminal message for pescatarian diets? laughing.gif

post #33 of 61

If it falls to $150, those $400 level buyers will be upset and we haven't made them upset since December!

post #34 of 61
Thread Starter 

Those damn AAPL $400 buyers, so smug....

 

smug.jpg

post #35 of 61

you got it backwards; the fate of the major indices is reliant on the trend of aapl laughing.gif

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhythmdoctor View Post

Well, ultimately the fate of AAPL is reliant on the trend of the major indices.  If the market starts declining, AAPL will too



 


 

 

post #36 of 61

Man no kidding! We gave them a lot of shit back at that level, hindsight was to buy March 2013 600 calls for probably pennies koolaid.gif

 

What i do feel bad for is that amount of new traders on here and all over that have their life savings in apple since this mega run started. They have no diversity in their portfolio and my god if we have a bad week the world is gonna feel like its ending. Its going to make a lot of new folks cocking thinking they can "trade" when all they did was invest in a company. This is a horrible scenario waiting to unfold IMO.

post #37 of 61

i feel bad for telling my friend who bought aapl at 380 to sell at 525.
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post

Those damn AAPL $400 buyers, so smug....

 

smug.jpg



 

post #38 of 61

dot-com bubble crash, housing bubble crash, aapl bubble crash laughing.gif
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by kylestt View Post

Man no kidding! We gave them a lot of shit back at that level, hindsight was to buy March 2013 600 calls for probably pennies koolaid.gif

 

What i do feel bad for is that amount of new traders on here and all over that have their life savings in apple since this mega run started. They have no diversity in their portfolio and my god if we have a bad week the world is gonna feel like its ending. Its going to make a lot of new folks cocking thinking they can "trade" when all they did was invest in a company. This is a horrible scenario waiting to unfold IMO.



 

post #39 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhythmdoctor View Post

Well, ultimately the fate of AAPL is reliant on the trend of the major indices.  If the market starts declining, AAPL will too regardless of the superiority of it's products and regardless of revenue.  IF the overall market starts tanking it doesn't matter if AAPL is bringing in record profits every month - their stock price will suffer.  Stock price is based purely on perception and if people are fearful of a stock market collapse, AAPL will fall harder than any other company.  The bigger they are the harder they fall.

 



 


I don't disagree there.  But we saw last year that Apple shares were rising when the market was correcting from May going forward until tech season.  I suppose when things are bad, people want to find the gems to park their money.  When yields were are record lows, rates are long-term low, superstars like Apple will lead the way.

 

post #40 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by tones View Post

dot-com bubble crash, housing bubble crash, aapl bubble crash laughing.gif
 



 



Priceline crash after Apple crash

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