Observations... most tending to be bullish
- Two weeks of choppy, modest volume but at times lively trading
- SPY is up 40 cents in two weeks (possible consolidation)
- Buyers held the line each of the last three days, defending lower levels admirably (pretty key)
- Thursday's range was rejected today, a sign of strength.
- VIX never got traction intraday this week.
- ES sporting lots of good 4h big lower wicks in the last week (goes with observation #3 above)
- Fund money frequently comes in early in the month
All in all, a little more confident in the upside next week than usual. Looking for ES to close between 1413 and 1425 next week. Almost changed my vote to "her boobs" but give me the money and I can buy them.
Possible bogeymen for next week, aside from any unexpected exogenous events like flare up of Eurozone issues, warmongering in MENA, PRK aiming missiles at random nations, etc...
- Dollar holding the uptrend support from September lows. If the market is up next week, chances are DX will have to break down through 79... with talk from EU that Euro needs Dollary parity... hmmm. Bonds advanced seven days in a row coming into today, if that was a breather rather than a trend ender, it could pose problems. ES rejection on retest of 1419.75 could lead to bigger profit taking. Those are a few things I would rather see fall into line for the bulls if next week is to be smooth sailing at all. Finally, it's a bit of a stretch, but on the 4h you can make out a decent ES downtrend channel... Monday should break through upper TL of that channel pretty early in the day if next week is going to be solidly bullish, and the 38.2% retracement from 1419.75 high to last Friday's low is at 1404.75 and has proven to be a bit of trouble for ES price in the last few days... getting solidly above 1405 could allow bulls some easy traction, failure to do so... it could become a lid again.
