Originally Posted by Bermudan Option
Trading is an art and a science. You are afraid of failure but the scientific approach means there is no fail: there is only data and refining of hypotheses. What worries me, however is that by not having a plan you do not have any hypotheses that you appear to be testing. What worries me is that your ego is too involved in the process, so if your hypothesis (when you get one) is not working, you are likely to stick with it longer than you should. What worries me is that you seem more concerned with making a journal that is interesting instead of consistently making money. What worries me is that you still haven't posted a chart or analyzed a stock.
You say that "trading is an art and a science," and I believe you are correct about that.
You say that I am afraid of failure, and I'm not entirely sure whether you're right about that or not. You might be. I'm just not sure. It would be disappointing. You give an interesting perspective in conveying how failure isn't possible by likening it the scientific method.
As to my having or not having a hypothesis, I'm not sure how to respond to that. I will say that I haven't given it much thought in those terms. I do have a goal, but as it stands, it's neither written nor quantitative (and certainly not measurable), so even as far as goals go, I'm not doing so hot. But then again, I'm making progress, but to what end I'm not sure. I'm trying to keep my set up simple. I'm trying to make pulling the trigger be like clockwork. I'm focusing on how to and to what extent to filter my trades. I give thought to the many things that may lead to bad trades. I've wrestled with opposing theories regarding approach. For instance, I'm in favor of keeping losses small and letting winners run, and to that end, I've decided on not scaling in but scaling out. I've analyzed many indicators, given up on reading price, and am narrowing down not merely what indicators I will be using but to the extent to which they will be tweaked and relied upon.
As to ego, you nailed that one.
Will I stick to a plan even if it so happens to be a plan that I shouldn't? Yes, and I'll ride it till it can't be ridden anymore. I'll blow my entire trading account before I give up on it. That's not smart; I realize that, but then again, it's money I'm willing to lose; furthermore, my plan in the making is not merely a shot in the dark. It's a cumulative concoction of not only my own making, but it's also adapted in part from what I've learned throughout my trading history.
As to it being an interesting journal, I don't know. I'd like it to be, but the more feedback I get, the more I think I'm probably just going to use it for logging my trades. It's too early to tell. I know one thing though; there's no way I can go into great detail regarding every facet of what's running through my mind, as there seems to be so much that's happened that has led me to where I am now.
I haven't posted a chart. You nailed that one alright. But, I have analyzed plenty of stocks. Granted, I haven't discussed the analysis, and I suppose that was your partly your point.