Stock Market Intraday Chat: Mar 26th - 30th - Page 6  

To answer both, no.

I cannot touch this money for like 40 years guys. I'm not worried about the cliff-drop situation when I ask for alternatives.

I have a buy in /ES at 04. Already up 35 ticks from overnight (8.75 points). 4 point stop here. 

These instruments aren't meant for buying and holding. If you seriously can't touch the money that is in this position, then you are going to be pretty unhappy in the future.

I agree with Bishops sentiments.  You should not be holding for long periods of time in these kinds of instruments.  I have a feeling you bought on some of the "advertising" of them that was done on here not too long ago, making it sound like huge gains were imminent on a reversal.

I think he meant it's probably an IRA account ( just guessing? ), but I agree with you 100%.

 

Doesn't matter the account. If it happens to sit that long, the decay is going to wipe most of the capital away as is.

Whenever I see TVIX I think of the candy bar TWIX. 

The candy bar reference made me think of the kitkat song, but altered... Break me off a piece of that CON-TANG-GO

Exaclty...they weren't meant to be buy n hold.

 

I hope he didn't get in too deep.

 

 

IMO you should sell a good portion of those holdings in UVXY/TVIX (can't remember which you are in) and the Canadian one (HVU?)almost immediately, just take the hit very, very soon. You should look to exit all of those positions soon... if you see a correction or strong surge in volatility coming in 1-2 weeks, maybe give it that long, but understand you could be down another 15-25% if the existing conditions persist. Do not hold it "until it is green" because if you are down more than say 35-40% on those, there is a pretty decent chance they will never see your entry prices print again. Price volatility on leveraged instruments works against you, as does the contango and related negative roll yield. Further, if you did not know this before you got into those positions, the lesson to be learned here going forward is to make sure you understand the nuances of exchange traded products you decide to get involved with before you enter a position. Not having stops with these instruments is almost worse than inviting the vampire into your house.

That bolded bit is a lesson I learned the hard way, as is the case with countless traders and investors here and elsewhere... we all need to make that realization stick, no exceptions.

Looks like we just had one. Great call as usual!

TICK had until 5-10 minutes ago been in one of the narrowest downtrend channels I can ever recall seeing it in, intraday. Breadth just perked up a little off the low +1400s. Feels like they are priming us for the lunch buy program, or a reversal back to the slow grind up, after nearly three hours of a maddeningly slow downtrend.

Bernanke Speech Eyed
Mon Mar 26 05:55:36 2012 (EDT)

Currencies were relatively quiet in Europe - until all three major components of Germany's Ifo survey came in fractionally ahead of consensus expectations. The surprises were marginal but enough of a relief after last week's extremely disappointing PMI report. The euro got a brief boost in response - and then heavy euro selling hit without any obvious trigger.

The last week of Japan's fiscal year is now well underway, and anticipation is already building that the crossover to the new year will prompt a resumption of the five-week-old USDJPY rally. Softer-than-expected US housing data on Friday forced USDJPY sharply lower, although we see this as only a temporary setback for the pair. What happens in the very short term will depend in large part on what Fed Chairman Bernanke has to say later today when he offers "A View from the Federal Reserve". Generally firmer US economic data would appear to justify a more upbeat tone, although we would caution against expecting a decisive shift in Bernanke's thinking. A total of eight other FOMC officials will also air their views this week. Whether mainstream Fed opinion has already begun to shift materially is still an open question, but we do expect Fed-BoJ policy divergence to become more pronounced in coming months. We remain alert for additional BoJ easing via the APP as early as next month - possibly coinciding with the release of the bank's next Outlook Report on April 27. Later in the week the euro will likely be somewhat sensitive to headlines around the expansion of the Eurozone's rescue infrastructure. A consensus appears to be forming in favour of temporarily raising the bailout firepower to EUR940 bn. This would be a marginally euro-positive development given it has been well telegraphed, although any negative response by the ratings agencies to rising sovereign contingent liabilities could quickly undo any benefit to the euro.

Research Spotlight "Liquidity: The Big Picture" Global Economics

Increased liquidity from extraordinary central bank actions is variously seen as an inflation threat, a source of currency moves, or a cause of asset price increases. But focusing on liquidity supply without considering money demand makes no sense. Clearly central bank balance sheets need to be a larger proportion of GDP than before the crisis given the move to a more cash-based society globally. And some central banks have to meet both domestic and international liquidity demand. Please see http://www.ubs.com/fx for details.

EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.30, 3m 1.25

ECB policymakers continue to point towards eventual policy normalisation. After recent overtures from Governing Council member Nowotny and Bundesbank President Weidmann, overnight it was Executive Board member Coeure's turn. He said that a timely exit from nonstandard measures and a return to a less accommodative policy stance are essential once the conditions are ripe.

Italian Prime Minister Monti praised Spain's efforts in the area of labour market reform. However he expressed concern about rising Spanish yields and the risk these pose to Italy given that "it doesn't take much to recreate risks of contagion".

A decision is due this week on how (and by how much) to boost the size of the Eurozone's rescue infrastructure. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn offered reassurances that Eurozone finance ministers "will take a convincing decision on the reinforcement of the firewalls" at the March 30 meeting. The Financial Times reported that Germany "is poised" to allow the combined firepower of both the EFSF and the ESM to be increased, and that a consensus is building behind temporarily raising the combined lending capacity to EUR940 bn. Der Spiegel also reported that German Chancellor Merkel and Finance Minister Schaeuble have abandoned their opposition to raising the ceiling on the combined rescue funds.

A weekend opinion poll showed that public support in Ireland for the fiscal compact treaty has risen; 49% of those polled said they would approve the Treaty at the upcoming referendum, 33% are still opposed and 18% offered no opinion. A referendum date has yet to be set.

This is looking like a double top on the SP500....Not sure how much more strength there is to keep pushing this higher. If we consolidated and fell to 1370's then ripped to 1450+ would be a healthier market.

Thanks man... the way I am looking at the market right now is this... usually there is a lot of deception, trickery, cloak and dagger, whatever you call it. Right now, in this hyper-depressed volume environment, it's almost like everyone is trading naked (sorry terrible image there) as there is nothing to hide behind. Think about this, would we see those buy programs so easily if the per-minute volume were triple what it is right now, as it has tended to be over the longer term? Probably not. Also, the same volume buy program will push us up more and stick out more on charts due to the larger deviation from typical volumes compared to a normal trading volume day.

The typical pattern once we see one buy program fire off is this, they let it come down something between 50-75% of the way back to the price from which the prior buy program launched, then they fire off another one. It's just a standard defense of the bid IMO. If they know there is basically nobody selling, and on volume like this, let's face it, selling is atrociously absent, then they know they are getting huge bang for their buck.

whats wrong with apple?

 

 

 

I think we all learned the hard way. Expensive lessons and if the mistakes keep being repeated, adios.
 

 

 

 

 

whats tomorrow?