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VSTM - Verastem, Inc.

post #1 of 5
Thread Starter 

 

Business Summary  

Verastem, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering and developing proprietary small molecule drugs targeting cancer stem cells (CSCs) in breast and other cancers along with proprietary companion diagnostics. Its product candidate is VS-507, a small molecule anti-cancer drug, which is in preclinical studies for the treatment of breast cancer. VS-507 would target the CSCs that have been implicated in aggressive cancer, metastases, and chemotherapeutic resistance. The company was founded in 2010 and is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

 

 

Shares Outstanding: 20.23M
Float: 8.21M

 

 

Total Cash (mrq): 61.82M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 3.06

stock-chart-str.aspx?id=VSTM&ca=643314928

 

post #2 of 5
Thread Starter 

This biotech stock is a LONG shot and with hardly ANY preclinical data let alone strong pipeline could make a GREAT short...eventually.  Likely to pop on news in the coming future, but look for a good shorting opportunity especially with announcements of more capital raises etc.

 

The good news:

 

 

 

Quote:
 
 

SUMMARY

Verastem (VSTM) priced at $10, the mid-point of the $9 to $11 filing range. Demand was solid though as the deal size was increased from 4.5 to 5.5 million shares. The company has a promising but deeply scientific and complicated story that includes improved treatments for cancer and personalized diagnostics. VSTM is a bet on some good science and IP targeting cancer stem cells and the management team and advisory board that will play out over a decade. Another name investors might wish to look into is Viral Genetics which is another early stage company with science and technology that disrupts cellular metabolism.

MORE ON MANAGEMENT & SCIENCE

As far as management goes it's an impressive team. The co-founder/CEO Christoph Westphal has chalked up several major successes including Alnylam (ALNY) $461M market cap), Momenta (MNTA) $775M market cap) and two others that were acquired by large drug companies [Glaxo (GSK) and Lilly (LLY)].

The scientific advisory board is outstanding. The mix of talent, expertise and accomplishment suggests that Verastem has a scientific network that will give them best possible access to developing science and potential partners in the ecosystem. Some biotechnology types talk about Verastem as a possible "next Vertex" which is another very successful small-molecule biotechnology company based in Cambridge, MA.

Vertex (VRTX) is a $1B+ revenue company that has reached profitability and has pipeline of additional drugs that will fuel further growth. Investors should note that Vertex has been a very long term and extremely volatile stock. Just over the last decade the shares declined for nearly a few years (2002-2005) before quadrupling in 2006. Since then the stock has been "basically flat" but with gyrations from $15 to $55 during that time period!

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Although it's a complex story the "money shot" for Verastem illustrates the potential the company has to have a major impact on treating cancer. Verastem basically targets the "root" of tumor to accomplish total removal rather than just a reduction. 1

In order to accomplish this Verastem has developed technology to find the specific cancer stem cells and create molecules that inhibit their formation and growth.

Along with clinical drug development Verastem is developing companion diagnostics tools to provide more individualized treatments known to be more effective.

1 Scientific illustrations are sourced from the Verastem IPO roadshow presentation.

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In terms of meaningful developments the two lead clinical candidates are scheduled for IND in 2012, Phase I trials in 2013 and potential Phase II trials in 2014 and into 2015. This isn't a short-term story by any measure.

Verastem has some "special sauce" in addition to their management team and advisory board. The company has expertise and patents around the identification and targeting of cancer stem cells, inhibitors to cancer stem cell growth and some high-throughput screening tools.

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There are myriad approaches to getting the jobs done at the cellular level these days and many are promising. Investors intrigued by this area should also look at Viral Genetics (VRAL.PK), which has developed impressive science and IP around technology that can selectively disrupt cellular metabolic process to accomplish a broad range of end-points.

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Verastem is definitely one of the development stage companies in this space to keep an eye on. The fact that there is solid investor demand for Verastem is encouraging in the fight against cancer.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

 

 

post #3 of 5
Thread Starter 

The bad news:

 

 

 

Quote:

 

Last fall, when Verastem (VSTM) announced their initial public offering, Iwondered about how such an early-stage company (in such a speculative area) could plausibly offer stock. Now Nate Sadeghi-Nejad at TheStreet.com wonders the same thing:

Biotech companies with drugs in much later stages of clinical development find it difficult to go public today, yet here was Verastem, with nary a single patient exposed to any of its drugs, selling 5.5 million shares to the public at $10 per share.

Forty days later, the minimum time period allowed by law, sell-side analysts from all five of the investment banks which took Verastem public issued glowing reports with buy ratings and price targets 50% to 100% above the current share price.

Well, this sort of thing does happen. I mean, just because an investment bank makes money off an IPO doesn't mean that it isn't just a terrific place to put your money. Right? That's because they do lots of research on these things. Right? Well, as Sadeghi shows, that research assigned a Probability of Success of 30% to Verastem's plan of finding cancer-stem-cell specific therapeutics. This in an environment where the clinical failure rate is worse than 90%, and these guys haven't even been to the clinic yet. Their lead compound is salinomycin, an ionophore antibiotic which has been shown in vitro to target tumor stem cells.

Now, that's a perfectly respectable high-risk project to take on, because it has a lot of potential to go along with the risk. But a thirty per cent chance of success? There is no preclinical oncology program in the world with a thirty per cent chance of success. That figure is laughable.

I don't wish bad fortune to Verastem - I hope that their compound works. And I don't wish bad things for their investors, although I hope that they're braced for some. We need new modes of action in cancer drugs; we need for things to work. But we also need to be honest with ourselves and with investors. Investment banks are not going to do that for you, though.

post #4 of 5

Is this one of those stocks that will drift down to $4 then suddenly pop to $40?

post #5 of 5
Thread Starter 

It is always a possibility but they would have to have some clinical trials going for really any chance of that (apart from an acquisition after some really great preclinical (read lab) data).

 

Just watch this run up on hype then slowly unwind as they run out of cash. 

Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post

Is this one of those stocks that will drift down to $4 then suddenly pop to $40?



 

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