Barbell's Journal

So I have been thinking about getting this journal going for a while now so I have some free time finally so here we go.

I'm only 27 years old I have been watching cnbc/markets since 2006 but never did anything even during the worst times could've bought some great companies in 2008 but I had a lot of problems at the time.  Partying a lot, blowing through money so it was a crazy time .  Things have settled in the last year and a half so I'm really happy that things have taken a positive direction in my life!

 

I work as a Software Developer and I really love what I do.  Good thing about being at a computer all day is that I can check up on all my trades but I do miss being able to watch CNBC (no way I could stream that at work, lol).  I don't have any grand plans of trying to make this into a full time job. I'm just finally getting my ass in gear instead of sitting around all those years watching/trying to learn but never making a move.  I would love to do this full time but I know that isn't realistic at this time.

 

Ok, enough about me here are some of the current positions I have:

 

Total Portfolio: $11,000

IBM - LONG

V     - LONG

BAC - LONG

AA - Closed this week (LOSS, got tired of waiting and moved that money into BAC and it more than made up for it!).

 

 

As I trade more I find myself wanting to be more active instead of the mindset I started with which was to just buy/hold for long long periods.  One thing I feel good about now that I didn't before is knowing when to finally man up and taking my licks.  If the stock just isn't ready to go it's time to just let go instead of being miserable waiting on it.  One person I feel that I really have learned a lot from is Scott Redler (t3live.com).  I'm now starting to also use what he calls a Tier system approach to trading.  You find setups you like and buy what he calls an entry level (Tier 1) position.  When you see the stock actually moving and it looks like it's finally in play you add Tier 2/3 accordingly.  When you see it reach goals you have set or you see it's about to change momentum after breaking out then sell off a Tier or two and come back down to Tier 1.  If things get even worse then get out of Tier 1 as well.

 

I'm really loving the morning calls and daily recaps he does.  When I take the train into work in the morning I'm always watching the morning calls from my iPhone.   It has now become a permanent part of my day and it's freaking awesome how this is free.

 

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$BAC

So going into this week I'm not really sure what to think.  $BAC has been amazing for me and I'm thinking of selling off my Tier 2 on it and booking that profit.  I really like BAC up until earnings because I don't know how well it's going to do and I don't think it's worth taking that chance.

 

The 50day just crossed the 200day on $BAC.  I think this is going to plow right through and touch $11.

 

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$IBM

I think this still has ton of room to grow especially considering how hot tech is.  IBM watson does some amazing stuff and there's always new news about them signing contracts to put Watson to work.  I strongly believe their earnings are going to be great again this quarter just like they have been all of the previous quarters.  The only issue I have here is this was an expensive stock relative to my portfolio size.  Trying to earn more bang for my buck here but that can be risky and I dont know if I want to go down that route.  

 

Volume has picked up on friday and it's building a new floor here.

 

 

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$V

I have been waiting on this one patiently for a while now.  Look at this chart below here:

 

 

It's trading in a nice tight channel (just like $IBM was when I bought into it).  The company has really good fundamentals and 0 debt.  The only thing that worries me is the passing of Dodd Frank which is going to hurt the fees $V could collect on debit cards.  Also there are some lawsuits pending but there is money set aside in escrow for that.  So combining the tech side and the fundamental side I think this is going to conclude very soon.  Hopefully for me it's to the upside..

 

 

A lot of people I follow on twitter are mentioning the AG's.  Few names came up but I've picked $POT from their lists:

 

$POT

 

This looks like it could turn into something this week.  So I'm really gonna keep an eye on this..

 

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$DRYS

 

Also, the shippers..  Since i've started trading I noticed the last time we started to look overbought Scott Redler had been mentioning maybe picking up $DRYS.  I didn't bother I thought this is some crap stock I know nothing about so why risk it.  I sat and watched how it moved and saw the nice run it had up to the high $3's.  Once again things are really jumping up fast and look at our friend $DRYS now:

 

 

 

I can play $DRYS for lot more shares than I can with $POT so I dont know I gotta watch the action to see what I do this week.

 

 

 

 

 

$V had that nice setup finally break out today I' m going to hold overnight since we made new 52week highs here.

$V

So $V broke out but then that down day totally negated everything so were back stuck in this range. Really disappointing here if I don't see a break out I'm gonna have to move on soon I still think this will break to the upside

$IBM

Still holding

$POT

This at broke out nicely but I didn't get in on it got tied up at work really mad about this right now.

$BAC -SOLD
In: 8.16 and 9.10 / Out: 9.88

I booked a profit on this one I think it will still move but it needs a break here it's so far away from the moving averages right now that I just want to be safe and sell into some strength. I think this will soon settle into a range and when I see a floor built I'll buy in again.

I'm currently in the process of switching brokers and I'm moving to etrade so that is holding me up from making anymore moves for now. Anyone have any reviews on etrade from the time they used them?

So another week is about to begin and I'm still holding the same stocks.  My eTrade account got funded on friday so I should have that ready to work with by wed.  I still have my Merrill account but I want to move away from them so if I absolutely need to make a trade I can still do it there before wed. 

 

Still holding:  $V, $IBM

 

Stocks I'm looking to play:  $ZNGA (concept play),  $POT (I like the AG's). 

 

$V -

 

Visa looked like it was really going to explode this week but then it retraced the day after.  But amazingly enough by friday it's been steadily climbing so I still believe we're going to see this one really break out nicely to the upside.  The fundamentals are great more and more people are using plastic and going away from cash.  And the chart looks like it's gonna break out from this range finally.

It's been consolidating here for a while but I expect good things here..

 

 

 

$IBM

 

Nothing really new to report here.  Chart still looks good.. I wont be leaving this one anytime soon

 

'

Edited by barbellman - 4/20/12 at 6:35am

So, this has been a crazy month for me.  Being a new trader I've never traded around a market correction so it's a huge learning experience for me.  Learning about what 'ABC' corrections are.  Looking for volume especially during times like these it's all been really cool.  At the same time I feel like I haven't learned a lot.  Getting into options has been a bit dangerous I've had some great plays and some real losers.  Here are some of the trades at different timeframes:

 

PCLN 720 puts  (big winner)

PCLN 700 puts (big winner)

AAPL 600 CALLS(winner), 610 PUTS (loser, bailed early)

CMG 410 puts(winner), 400 puts (loser)

NFLX 97.50 puts (expired on a saturday, earnings came out on monday and dropped 20pts - BIG LOSER)

SBUX 62.50 call (had to bail early, worked out for the better)

LVS 60 call (bailed early, worked out for the better)

SPY 137(big winner, market turning down), 137(loser, bad timing market rebounded), 138(big winner), 139 puts(still holding)

 

So, after going through all these plays what have I learned if anything? What can I do to get better? It's so tricky with options I mean I love how quick you can earn money but it's so damn hard to time everything.  NFLX wanted to fill that gap down and it looked like things were going to go my way.  I never want to play into earnings it's one of the rules I've picked up from more experienced people so I stuck to this rule.  NFLX just couldn't power down before earnings and those were toast.  

 

Am I going to keep playing options here? I don't think I'm getting it right enough for it to be worthwhile.  My timing is always slightly off or I'm bailing on possible winners too early.  I would love to be able to short 100 shares of PCLN if the timing looked right but I don't have that kind of bank roll.  So that was the nice thing about options it gave a guy like me the chance to play meaningful way with these high flyers.  I'm currently really deciding if I want to keep doing these option plays as of right now I'm at a loss for the month.  I did way better playing stocks straight up I think I'll let these plays I currently have go (AAPL 610W, SPY 139 PUTS) go for now and that'll be it.

 

 

 

 

 

So the market has rebounded from the 1350 level in a pretty decent move back up.  Here are some plays I'm eyeing here:

 

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ANF(LONG):

 

Price:

Entry: 50.88

Target: 55-57

 

Play:

Broke out of it's descending trend line I think this could be good for a play up to $55 where it'll meet resistance.  I'm currently in this trade 100 shares I picked up on friday and I'm waiting for it to play out.  It looks like sellers have exhausted out of this name for now as you see the volume flatting out nicely and it's looking to break out of this trend here.  I currently have a $1 stop on it and we'll have to see how it goes..

 

 

 

 

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KORS(LONG):

 

Price:

Entry: No entry yet

Target: 50

 

Play:

 

Another retail name that has broken out of it's descending trend line.  I think this could also be good for a quick play up to that resistance point and depending on the market in general it might break up above that.  I'm already in one clothing stock so I don't know about another but it could be good for a quick trade.

 

 

 

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AAPL(LONG, 610W CALLS):

 

Price:

Entry: 5.80

Exit: 8-10

 

Play:

 

What a monster earnings report it had I mean did anyone really expect anything different? The way AAPL came down so hard to $555 you knew it was poised for a huge move back up.  Now that it's been a few days after earnings AAPL is acting in a very similar pattern to the last earnings.  It gaps up, descends for few days and then breaks out of there and atleast retests the high from the gapup.  So in this case, AAPL gapped back up to the $618 level and has been coming down on LOW VOLUME the last few days.  I'm in some $610W calls and looking for it to atleast bounce up and touch that level of resistance at $618.  I really don't know where AAPL goes after that everyone is looking it to fill that gap back down to the $555 level again.  It could happen, but for now I think it seems pretty reasonable to say it will atleast retest that $618 level from the gap up.

 

 

 

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DRYS(LONG):

 

 

Price:

Entry: 2.90 - 3

Target: 3.80

 

Play:

 

I've been watching DRYS for a long time it's one of those super cheap crap stocks that has some nice pops from time to time.  This stock really pops up when the market looks really overbought so it's something to keep on your watchlist.  If you look at the chart here it broke it's long term descending trendline back on 2/3 and you saw major volume come in.  After that it gapped up nicely and it's been forming another descending channel.  I'm putting in an alert on this for price between $2.90 and $3 looks like a good entry as it has acted as support the previous weeks when it was going lower.  If this could break to the upside on some volume it could easily retest $3.80 level which could be really nice trade!  So I'm watching this one like a hawk here

 

 

 

Edited by barbellman - 4/29/12 at 9:54am

This is a play I decided I'm really going to focus on.  This stock has had a hell of a run this year and it's following this nice really tight pattern.  It bases for a while, comes down to the low of the regression channel it's in and then POP gaps up another level.  It's a really good strong company as well so the fundys look good.  Earnings are out of the way they came on 4/25 so we can move on now..

 

TSCO(LONG)

 

Price:

 

Entry: 96.50 - 97.50 (Bounce off the lower regression channel)

Target: 104-105

 

 

 

 

 

Play:

 

Once this hits the bottom half of this regression channel I'm going to put in a buy.  I'll put in a stop of $95 here and I WILL NOT buy if this doesn't hit the lower end of this channel.  If this moves without me then fine, but I'm looking at the previous plays and it seems to be following this pattern so just have to sit tight on this one.

 

 

Fundamentals:

 

 

 

Tractor Supply Company announced that for fiscal 2012, it expects net sales to range between $4.61 billion and $4.68 billion, same-store sales to increase 4.0% to 5.5% compared to fiscal 2011 and net income to range between $260 million and $265 million, or $3.52 to $3.60 per diluted share (EPS). According to I/B/E/S Estimates, analysts were expecting the Company to report revenue of $4.69 billion for fiscal 2012. 

 

 

PNW (VIDEO POST)

 

Utility Play - Entry: 48.97 (break previous close). Had huge volume on 5/10 keep on your radar. 

 

Edited by barbellman - 5/12/12 at 9:40pm

EMN (VIDEO POST)

 

SHORT -

Entry: $50-50.50.

Target: $45.

 

Looking for this to fill the gap with dollar strengthening 

 

CSTR (VIDEO POST)

 

SHORT-

 

Entry: 61.50 - 61.75.

Short term exit: 56

Long term exit: 52.95