Well we closed above 1400..

Just riding this trend 

here are some charts.. read it how you want..

Here is what is going on right now

Edit another interesting view.

Heres a nasdaq.. LOOK where we stopped..  Same thing on the ES which we didnt break R3 today.. and stopped right at it.   JMFO

Continued Dollar Fatigue
Mon Mar 19 19:06:59 2012 (EDT)

After its recent run higher, the US dollar is still suffering from what we see as merely a temporary show of fatigue entering the Asian session, where market conditions will be thinner than usual due to the Japanese holiday (Vernal Equinox Day). The softer US dollar profile looks all the more conspicuous in the light of the overnight rise in UST yields, suggesting fresh incentives will be needed for another push higher. Certainly, the US dollar did not receive much encouragement from the NAHB's unchanged housing market index of 28 in March, which undercut the consensus estimate of 30. Moreover, the February index was revised down slightly to 28 from 29, though this is still well above last September's 14 print. True to expected form, New York Fed President Dudley continued to sound dovish, warning of risks to growth from higher gasoline prices, fiscal cutbacks, and housing. Though he acknowledged that recent data have been more "upbeat", he sees inflation as likely to moderate further and stated that "nothing has been decided" about further accommodation. EURUSD was squeezed above the 1.32 level, with the Greek CDS settlement (Greek bonds received a final value of 21.5%), the EFSF's sale of 20-year bonds (raising EUR1.5 bn), and confirmation that the ECB was putting its bond-buying programme back into hibernation all serving reminder of reduced Eurozone tail risk. The focus is now on the RBA minutes, Swiss industrial production, and the UK February CPI data. For the last, UBS expects a 0.2% m/m rise, but GBP bears will focus on the moderation in the y/y rate - our forecast is a below-consensus 3.0%. Also on tap will be US housing starts (UBS expects some slippage to 680k in February from 699k in January), and Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments. QE should remain off the table.

EUR

Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.30, 3m 1.25


Yields Underpin Dollar
Mon Mar 19 11:25:14 2012 (EDT)

Optimistic on growth, ambivalent on policy

US dollar gains over the past week may have marked a seminal change in markets' interaction with the Fed. Although some on the FOMC may beg to differ, Treasury markets are now pricing in a more assertive policy path than currently signalled and, so far, the Fed appears unwilling to discourage the gradual pricing of stronger economic conditions. After all, it is in the Fed's interest to allow the market to stand on its own feet without liquidity support, and our new macro forecasts for both the yield on the 10y note (2.7% by end-2011) and normalisation (end-2013) reflect our view on US outperformance. This is all dollar-positive, but policymakers globally will ask whether the US can grow in isolation. The current flow attraction of the US only adds to the funding drain from elsewhere, casting doubt on the notion that a recovering US benefits all - especially with so much policy divergence.

Greece is the least of the Eurozone's problems

We have upgraded our Eurozone growth view but still expect a recession. The ECB, meanwhile, seems more eager on normalisation and liquidity withdrawal than the Fed. Global inflation differentials are negligible, but so far the periphery's calls for the "North" to reduce yields (hence real rates) for the "South" as stimulus have fallen on deaf ears. It won't take long for markets to question whether current fiscal targets are achievable for the likes of Spain and Italy. Even if the ECB has facilities in place to contain volatility in fixed income, real money investors are likely to, at most, stick to benchmarks and not offer a cent more, in turn
exacerbating already-weak credit and growth conditions. In comparison, the UK budget this week should look kinder - but not by much in the wake of ratings risk.

Carry traders - think twice!

The sharp increase in short JPY positioning evidenced by IMM data should not be taken as an all-clear signal by carry traders. Indeed, IMM data also points to limited interest in adding to AUD or NZD longs. And, separately, the policy decisions of high-flyers have dampened the mood. Choosing between a housing bubble and so-called Dutch disease, it seems the SNB and Norges Bank believe the former is less painful and easier to clean up. Their decisions leave no illusion that preventing currency strength will dominate policy in the near future. The RBA is less worried, but the noises out of Beijing suggest the days of easy Chinese inflows to Australia are over, and that it's time to ready the monetary and fiscal buffers.

Please see our current issue of FX Perspectives, attached, for more.


Fedspeak In Focus
Mon Mar 19 07:09:03 2012 (EDT)

Markets continued to trade in tight ranges overnight amid lack of data and official commentary. However, risk markets were generally softer due to the absence of more positive catalysts, and we believe this will be an increasingly dominant factor ahead. New York Fed President Dudley kicks off a week heavy with Fed speakers with comments on the economy at 8:35EDT. We expect him to be dovish, in line with his voting record.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will be giving three separate speeches throughout the week, though his Friday comments would be more important as it will be at a more official forum at the Fed conference. The lack of a press conference at the March FOMC meeting may have allowed the market to get ahead of itself. The Fed may want to communicate more clearly that deviation from current targets are ill-advised. On the other hand, if such shifts are going to be encouraged, it would add weight to the view that the dollar is becoming a stronger carry currency, and our flow patterns are starting to confirm such shifts, especially as funds are flowing out of traditional 'risk economies' and in favour of the US.

Overnight EURUSD traded 1.3143-1.3187 and USDJPY 83.02-83.56. The NAHB Housing Market Index is due today.

Research Spotlight "End of an Era" G10 FX Strategy

We believe the three-decade bull run in global bond markets is set to end. Government bond yields should experience a secular upward trend as the US shifts to sustainable growth, with the Fed not needing to undertake further quantitative easing. We expect major emerging economies to rebound and believe that the Eurozone recession poses few risks to the global economy. A bear market in bonds would sit well with our bullish view of the dollar, with higher US yields boosting USDJPY and USDCHF.

Dollar Gains Checked
Mon Mar 19 03:02:23 2012 (EDT)

Ranges were broadly flat overnight but the dollar has checked some of its advance amid fears that data is still not strong enough in the US for the Fed to continue allowing the market to price out expectations for monetary easing. On Friday the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index slipped to 74.3 in early March from 75.3 in February; industrial production was unchanged m/m in February; and the y/y reading for core consumer prices slowed to 2.2% in February from 2.3% in January. Yet, this should not mask the positive momentum in the US economy, as the University of Michigan report included key improvements in labour market assessments, while manufacturing production was up 0.3% m/m in February. Moreover, at a 1.9% annual rate in the past three months, core consumer prices are still growing at a faster clip than the 1.7% recorded last October. In fact, thanks in large part to what has transpired in the US, our global asset allocation team has declared a secular turning point for bonds into a long-term bear market. Our baseline scenario now pegs 10-year UST yields at 2.7% at the end of 2012 (vs 2.4% previously) and 3.3% at the end of 2013 (vs 3.0% previously), with the Fed starting to hike rates in 2013 - defying the Fed's late 2014 guidance. This should support currency pairs like USDCHF and USDJPY, which tends to track UST-JGB yield spreads particularly well - underpinning our three-month target of 85. These shifts need to take place in the context of a stronger US recovery and ever-widening policy divergence, though further policy guidance from the Fed is needed and at this point it remains too early to be over-expectant on the FOMC alone. In addition, the dovish tone from several minor central banks of late suggest that the 'risk-on, high-yield on' framework could also be changing as these nations are seeing clear downside risks to their manufacturing sectors. Today's speech by New York Fed President Dudley plus appearances by Fed Chairman Bernanke on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday will be closely watched. As long as Bernanke does not drop any 'QE3' hints as we suspect, the US dollar should be well supported. Overnight EURUSD traded in a range of 1.3156-1.3187, USDJPY 83.36-83.56.

There’s some chatter that flows from the UPS-TNT €5.2 billion deal is behind the euro strength. Others are skeptical about the timing.

Also if there is no slow down in China or a hard landing, when then..... are companies revising their comds outlook.??? hmmmmm seasonal?  or something else coming?

BHP Billiton sees China iron ore demand flattening

Australian iron ore miners, key beneficiaries of China's modern-day industrial revolution, on Tuesday signaled demand growth was finally slowing in response to Beijing's moves to cool its economy.

BHP Billiton (BHP.AX), the world's biggest miner, said it was seeing signs of "flattening" iron ore demand from China, though for now it was pushing ahead with ambitious plans to expand production.

Rival Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) said it too was sticking with plans to raise capacity from its huge mines in Western Australia's Pilbara iron ore belt, betting on a soft landing for the Chinese economy.

"The (Chinese) economy is shifting, it's changing. Steel growth rates will flatten and they have flattened," Ian Ashby, president of BHP's iron ore division, said ahead of the Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast Conference in Perth.

China's demand for iron ore, a key steelmaking ingredient, will slow to single digit growth, but the country's annual steel output will still rise by some 60 percent by 2025, Ashby said.

The news knocked the Australian dollar, which fell a fifth of a U.S. cent to $1.0595 right after the comments. The forex market is very sensitive to any hint of softening demand in China, given it is Australia's single biggest export market. "What is concerning is the potential impact of single-digit demand growth for iron ore," said Stan Shamu, an analyst at IG Markets. "Iron ore demand from China makes up a bulk of our exports and this will impact terms of trade. This shows that terms of trade are peaking and likely to flatten down the line."

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Graphic on BHP production: link.reuters.com/tux95s

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

Chinese demand for iron ore has been the driving force behind years of expansion work by the world's biggest mining companies. More than 100 million rural Chinese are projected to settle in towns and cities in the next decade, requiring unprecedented amounts of steel for housing and infrastructure.

Earlier this month, however, China cut its 2012 growth target to an eight-year low of 7.5 percent, fuelling caution about demand for resources.

The miners stopped well short of declaring an end to China's commodities boom, but dimmed their outlooks.

EXPANSION PLANS

Rio, BHP and other big miners have been pursuing a strategy of running at full production and expanding capacity in long-life and relatively low-cost commodity assets compared to the selling price of ore, banking on squeezing out higher cost producers.

BHP was sticking with its $10 billion iron ore expansion plan and was mining ore at a rate of 165 million metric tonnes (181.9 million metric tons) to 170 million metric tonnes per year, Ashby said.

That is above its production guidance of 159 million metric tonnes in fiscal 2012 ending June 30, maintaining the company's No.3 global ranking in iron ore behind Vale (VALE5.SA) and Rio Tinto.

"The size of the pie is really big, so any percentage increase is a significant number," Ashby said.

Analysts agreed even single-digit growth in Chinese ore demand should be enough to spur miners to push ahead with production expansion plans. "Certainly the rate of growth in Chinese demand is slowing, but the growth is from an ever increasing base so the number of iron units required continues to rise," said Paul Gray, analyst at Wood Mackenzie, who sees the seaborne iron ore market staying tight through 2012 and 2013.

Rio was also sanguine about the slowing growth.

"Although the rate of GDP growth in China is more immediately slowing, we remain confident, on the basis of the figures we have seen, of a soft landing, with solid growth for this year," David Joyce, Rio Tinto's managing director of expansion projects, said in a speech. BHP saw the current floor for global iron ore prices at $120 a metric tonne, based on the estimated highest cost of production inside China, Ashby said. Iron ore has sold for between $130 and $147 a tonne over the last four months, which mega-producers such as Rio Tinto have said is high enough to warrant investment in new mines. Rio Tinto has mapped out plans to lift its overall annual production of iron ore in Australia to 283 million tonnes in 2013 from 225 million now by digging new mines and expanding existing ones. Global iron ore demand is set to double to around 3.5 billion tonnes a year by 2030, with Chinese appetite for the steel-making material continuing to drive the market, albeit at a slower pace, according to Perth-based Intierra Resource Intelligence. Shares in BHP were little changed in Australian trade, easing 0.1 percent in a broader market .AXJO down 0.3 percent. Rio shares were off 0.5 percent.

really.. well perhaps you should shhh about that since youll have people jump down your throat... LOL... i think takes more skill to call a bearish move than it does a bullish jmfo. This lite melt up is somewhat similar to what happened in Feb... who knows..  i sure as hell dont..

Ya i have puts too and am short a few things.. careful ppl might say you are babbling since you dont have a graph or post trades.. lol
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by tones 

charulz & mjoke, dont worry at the very end of the trading day i felt a gust of bearish wind run down my spine... which only happens so often. something about today was too off. we'll see tomorrow if my hunch was right. & no i don't have a graph to back up my thoughts. i just have hunches...and puts.

Only thing happening tomorrow, over a 1.0 on the Olsen Scale of Market Impact is:

Housing starts and building permits is only .6

EDIT: He also speaks again on Thursday

I have the complete calendar in my log at the very end, with the top market impact events.

There are more things that move markets than just what happens in the US...

Tue Mar 20	3:00am	EUR		German PPI m/m			0.5%	0.6%
	4:15am	CHF		Industrial Production q/q			0.4%	-1.5%
	5:30am	GBP		CPI y/y			3.4%	3.6%
	5:30am	GBP		RPI y/y			3.4%	3.9%
	5:30am	GBP		Core CPI y/y			2.4%	2.6%
	7:00am	GBP		CBI Industrial Order Expectations			-5	-3
	8:30am	USD		Building Permits			0.69M	0.68M
	8:30am	USD		Housing Starts			0.70M	0.70M
	10:00am	USD		Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
	12:45pm	USD		Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
	5:45pm	NZD		Current Account			-2.78B	-4.60B
	5:45pm	NZD		Visitor Arrivals m/m				-2.3%
	7:30pm	AUD		MI Leading Index m/m				0.5%
	10:00pm	NZD		Credit Card Spending y/y				3.1%
Wed Mar 21	12:30am	JPY		All Industries Activity m/m			-0.5%	1.3%
	5:30am	GBP		MPC Meeting Minutes			0-0-9	0-0-9
	5:30am	GBP		Public Sector Net Borrowing			5.2B	-10.7B
	8:30am	CAD		Leading Index m/m			0.5%	0.7%
	8:30am	GBP		Annual Budget Release
	9:30am	USD		Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
	10:00am	USD		Existing Home Sales			4.61M	4.57M
	10:00am	USD		FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
	10:30am	USD		Crude Oil Inventories				1.8M
	5:45pm	NZD		GDP q/q			0.6%	0.8%
	6:10pm	AUD		RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
	7:50pm	JPY		Trade Balance			-0.34T	-0.61T
	10:30pm	CNY		HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI				49.6
Thu Mar 22	3:00am	CHF		Trade Balance			1.97B	1.55B
	4:00am	EUR		French Flash Manufacturing PMI			50.5	50.0
	4:00am	EUR		French Flash Services PMI			50.6	50.0
	4:30am	EUR		German Flash Manufacturing PMI			51.1	50.2
	4:30am	EUR		German Flash Services PMI			53.1	52.8
	5:00am	EUR		Flash Manufacturing PMI			49.6	49.0
	5:00am	EUR		Flash Services PMI			49.3	48.8
	5:30am	GBP		Retail Sales m/m			-0.5%	0.9%
	6:00am	EUR		Industrial New Orders m/m			-2.0%	1.9%
	8:30am	CAD		Core Retail Sales m/m			0.6%	0.0%
	8:30am	CAD		Retail Sales m/m			1.8%	0.2%
	8:30am	USD		Unemployment Claims			353K	351K
	10:00am	EUR		Belgium NBB Business Climate			-6.3	-7.7
	10:00am	USD		CB Leading Index m/m			0.7%	0.4%
	10:00am	USD		OFHEO HPI m/m			0.2%	0.7%
	10:30am	USD		Natural Gas Storage				-64B
	11:00am	EUR		Consumer Confidence			-20	-20
	12:00pm	EUR		ECB President Draghi Speaks
	12:45pm	USD		Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
	1:30pm	CHF		Gov Board Member Danthine Speaks
	8:01pm	GBP		Nationwide Consumer Confidence			49	47
	10:00pm	CNY		CB Leading Index m/m				1.6%
Fri Mar 23	4:30am	CHF		SNB Quarterly Bulletin
	5:00am	EUR		Italian Retail Sales m/m			0.2%	-1.1%
	5:30am	GBP		BBA Mortgage Approvals			39.1K	38.1K
	7:00am	CAD		Core CPI m/m			0.2%	0.2%
	7:00am	CAD		CPI m/m			0.5%	0.4%
	10:00am	USD		New Home Sales			326K	321K
	1:45pm	USD		Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
	2:30pm	USD		FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
Sat Mar 24	9:00pm	CHF		Daylight Saving Time Shift
	9:00pm	EUR		Daylight Saving Time Shift
	9:00pm	GBP		Daylight Saving Time Shift

After today for the monthly (ES), there is a small nice wick on a direct test of the upper value area boundary. There is resistance at the upper boundary.

hopefully all the traders will wake and bake today then buy everything up ! 

Weird action.. alot of chop in the AH here, wait until EU opens but the pundits are already calling for a drop of 1% like china tonight.

Also if things are okay in EU then why are yeilds rising still? .. maybe it being the 20th and a correction tuesday perhaps will pan out.. Minor or major i dont care.

Chinese shares lead a slip in Asia

Reuters – 22 minutes ago

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Shares slipped on Tuesday, led by losses in Hong Kong and Shanghai on underwhelming corporate earnings, while the euro held near its highest level in a week on easing fears about wider damage to the financial system from Greece's debt crisis.

Commodities were broadly weaker, with base and precious metals both edging down, while crude oil eased more than half a percent on an improved supply outlook as Libyan exports are returning to pre-war levels faster than expected.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.5 percent. Tokyo markets were closed for a holiday.

Financial spreadbetters predicted major European markets would open down 0.1-0.2 percent, while U.S. stock futures also dipped 0.1 percent.

"Momentum is clearly stalling right now and in need of distinct signals, whether it be U.S. housing data pointing to a stable recovery or stronger indications of policy easing in China," said Kim Se-joong, an analyst at Shinyoung Securities in Seoul.

Equity losses in Asia were led by China, with Shanghai stocks shedding 1 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index down 0.4 percent as a lacklustre reporting season so far prompted investors to take money off the table.

Nearly half of Chinese companies having reported 2011 earnings, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine data, and so far close to 70 percent have missed expectations.

"There are no fresh positive catalysts, we are in a downward spiral today. I'm just trying to cut my losses," said Alex Wong, Ample Finance's director of asset management In Hong Kong.

U.S. stocks had risen on Monday, as investors cheered Apple Inc's (NasdaqGS:AAPL - NewsAAPL.O) announcement of a $10 billion annual dividend and share buy-back, lifting the S&P 500 to within 10 percent of its all-time closing high.

U.S. RECOVERY

A steady stream of data pointing to a recovery in the U.S. economy and massive liquidity injections from major central banks have combined to drive a rally in share markets since late last year. The S&P 500 has risen nearly 12 percent in 2012 and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan is up more than 13 percent.

That, in turn, has stemmed the flow of money seeking safety in assets such as U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields on 10-year notes up to around 2.38 percent, the highest in nearly five months.

A generally improved appetite for riskier assets has also driven a rally in credit markets in recent days, with spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index tightening a further 3 basis points on Tuesday.

The dollar edged up 0.1 percent against a basket of major peers, while the euro held steady around $1.3230, after rising as high as $1.32659 on Monday.

"It's probably going to be a consolidation week for the U.S. dollar," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange strategy for Credit Agricole in Hong Kong.

Investors began to scale back bearish bets against the euro on Monday and focused on a Greek credit default swap auction that set the payout for holders of default insurance totalling about 3.2 billion euros. The auction fixed a fair value price of 21.5 cents on the euro for Greek bonds, within expectations.

That meant an owner of Greek CDS would be paid 78.5 cents on the euro, which analysts said was enough to compensate for the roughly 75 percent loss investors incurred on the country's debt restructuring.

The European Central Bank's (NasdaqGS:ECB - NewsECBnull) announcement that it put its bond-buying programme on hold last week also encouraged traders to cover bets against the single currency.

"The market took the news as a sign that bond markets in the euro zone have been recovering on their own, even without such ECB support," said a trader at a big Japanese bank in Singapore.

The Australian dollar slipped 0.3 percent to $1.0578 after global miner BHP Billiton (ASX:BHP.AX - NewsBHP.AX) (LSE:BLT.L - NewsBLT.L) said it saw signs that growth in iron ore demand was flattening in China, Australia's single biggest export market.

Oil continued a decline that began on Monday on news that top exporter Saudi Arabia increased shipments in January and that Libyan production next month would return to levels seen before the civil war that ousted Muammar Gaddafi.

Brent crude and U.S. crude both fell about 70 cents to around $125 and $107.40 a barrel respectively.

Copper slipped 0.5 percent to $8,531 a tonne and gold also weakened, losing 0.4 percent to around $1,655 an ounce.

"Investors are looking at other investment options, as they are less concerned about economic growth and more wanting to hop on the equity rally, which clearly works against some of the reasons why people buy gold," said Jeremy Friesen, commodity strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong.

i think theres skill in playing both trends.  sometimes its harder to buy at the bottom because everyone is screaming the world is going to end in your ear.

Buffett is really smart because he kept himself insultated from the wall street hype by staying in his cozy Idaho(?) home. 

bull trends maybe easier for people because its naturally easier to buy when everything is going up.  feels safer.

which can kill people that buy at the top..  so i see it both ways.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mjoke 

 

reserved

futures taking a beating.  dow -62

as a newb can I share my thoughts on mjoke?

Everything is pretty peachy and things are going great were all making a lot of money but I think it's awesome to get the other side to this to keep in mind things could change.  mjoke has lot of great stuff he posts in here to see things might not be going so smoothly.  

(and this wouldn't be complete without mjoke responding "how dare a newb share any thoughts.. keep quiet!" lol  j/k)

hey marco.. liking that chart.. been using it as a frame of reference in the back of my head.. but u wanna re-check that data real quick? looks like the up/down summations don't add up for april - july (e.g. april showing me 7 up/3 down) 
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by marcosx3x 

What can I tell you, Bored

I was looking at that 10 year look of up down months again.

As someone had suggested, I converted to spreadsheet from simple text editor:

 

 

Could this be another 2006?

If March ends up, the only other time in 10 years we had Jan, Feb, March all up, 3 months in a row, was 2006. 11 up months to 1 down. (of course the down month was May)

We had 5 up/7 down in 2011. The only other time in 10 years was 2005, followed by 2006 with 11 up/1 down.

 

April has the highest amount of down months.(7)

 

Never any 8 up or down months.

7 up months in June Aug. Oct. Dec. (alternating months)

got scared out of going short yesterday, today looks like it will be a red day. I wonder what bernanke's speech will do to the market