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Stock Market Intraday Chat: Mar 19th - 23rd - Page 2  

post #21 of 833

yep.. been waiting.. action doesnt start for awhile however.

post #22 of 833

Quote:

Originally Posted by mjoke View Post

yep.. been waiting.. action doesnt start for awhile however.



So is this the top mjoke? 1,400 the last straw? 

post #23 of 833

i dont think the wedge will break over the resistance, and HOLD it (futures) .. the markets i feel are not ready (yet)...and if it does wont be by much.

Also i think we close below 1400 at EOY.

post #24 of 833

ES breaking out!

post #25 of 833
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdox View Post

ES breaking out!


As I expected.

 

 

post #26 of 833
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobK View Post


As I expected.

 

 



Yep. Up to 1406 we go!

post #27 of 833
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdox View Post



Yep. Up to 1406 we go!



I had said I expected 1405 but I'll give ya one and let's do 1406. laughing.gif

 

post #28 of 833

 a break out on light volume is one thing.. holding it and closing on it is another.  (up 2.00 points)

so 1401.75 is a break out? lol.. still within resistance levels and was applicable because Japan opened..

 

See what happens when EU comes about..   Same levels as quoted on Friday.. R1 is 1400-01.. R2 is 1404.

post #29 of 833
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjoke View Post

 a break out on light volume is one thing.. holding it and closing on it is another.  (up 2.00 points)

so 1401.75 is a break out? lol.. still within resistance levels and was applicable because Japan opened..

 

See what happens when EU comes about..   Same levels as quoted on Friday.. R1 is 1400-01.. R2 is 1404.


rotfl.gif

 

 

post #30 of 833
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobK View Post



I had said I expected 1405 but I'll give ya one and let's do 1406. laughing.gif

 



Ok thanks! laughing.gif  I actually think we'll see close to the 1420 area this week but that may take a few days. Not sure yet.

post #31 of 833
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjoke View Post

 a break out on light volume is one thing.. holding it and closing on it is another.  (up 2.00 points)

so 1401.75 is a break out? lol.. still within resistance levels and was applicable because Japan opened..

 

See what happens when EU comes about..   Same levels as quoted on Friday.. R1 is 1400-01.. R2 is 1404.


 

lol it has more than that. Patience!

post #32 of 833

I have to agree. What happens between now and the close is irrelevant unless new 52-week highs or lows (on intra-day basis) are made. What matters is were markets close relative to where they open. The breakout we just now got is inconsequential. Same would be true if we got a breakdown. Again, its all about were you close relative to were you opened. 
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by mjoke View Post

 a break out on light volume is one thing.. holding it and closing on it is another.  (up 2.00 points)

 



 

post #33 of 833
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Mike View Post

Why does everyone think that the market is "overbought" or what ever. I just dont get it, someone paint me a picture:LOL:

Here is why you are wondering why people think the market is overbought... McClellan Oscillator has closed above zero only ONCE starting Feb 13. So that portrays a lack of being overbought, which in this case, if you're a bear, means you need to switch the thesis to negative divergence from overbought. Also, notice how far down NYMO spiked on that last mini-selloff, that was more of a rest/breather than it seemed at the time.

454
post #34 of 833

VROOM!

 

/NQ

Screen Shot 2012-03-18 at 2.52.27 PM.png

post #35 of 833
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post

I have to agree. What happens between now and the close is irrelevant unless new 52-week highs or lows (on intra-day basis) are made. What matters is were markets close relative to where they open. The breakout we just now got is inconsequential. Same would be true if we got a breakdown. Again, its all about were you close relative to were you opened. 

While I agree in principle, in looking at this run, there have been countless times the market has hit a new high in this run (at least several were 52 week highs) overnight, then retraced maybe 6-12 handles, held levels for hours to a few days, then powered through to new highs. I think it is a mistake to assume that it will be different this time until it is different, and we will probably have some decent hints of it being the top... volume selling/obvious distribution, exogenous events (war, default, terrorists), etc.

ES 4 hr chart has spent one bar below the 200 SMA since December 21st. That was not even a close below the 200, just during the last 4 hr bar before close on the big Dow 200 pt down day. And we see how the index reacted to that support test (60-65 handles up in under two weeks).
post #36 of 833

banana.gif What we gonna make another couple of grand this week too? laughing.gif

post #37 of 833

Yield Watch
Sun Mar 18 18:48:12 2012 (EDT)

Our bullish US dollar view remains intact. Granted, Friday's 'underwhelming' US headline data weighed on the US currency - the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index slipped to 74.3 in early March from 75.3 in February; industrial production was unchanged m/m in February; and the y/y reading for core consumer prices slowed to 2.2% in February from 2.3% in January. Yet, this should not mask the positive momentum in the US economy, as the University of Michigan report included key improvements in labour market assessments, while manufacturing production was up 0.3% m/m in February. Moreover, at a 1.9% annual rate in the past three months, core consumer prices are still growing at a faster clip than the 1.7% recorded last October. In fact, thanks in large part to what has transpired in the US, our global asset allocation team has declared a secular turning point for bonds into a long-term bear market. Our baseline scenario now pegs 10-year UST yields at 2.7% at the end of 2012 (vs 2.4% previously) and 3.3% at the end of 2013 (vs 3.0% previously), with the Fed starting to hike rates in 2013 - defying the Fed's late 2014 guidance. This should support currency pairs like USDCHF and USDJPY, which tends to track UST-JGB yield spreads particularly well - underpinning our three-month target of 85. With perceived European 'tail risk' having been reduced, the data and comments from Fed officials should figure more prominently in the FX equation. This week's US data focus will be on housing, and we suspect the results should be USD-positive. UBS expects the housing market index due later today to rise to 31 in March from 29 in February, eclipsing the consensus estimate of 30. The main near-term risk to our stronger US dollar call would be any dovish talk from the Fed. Today's speech by New York Fed President Dudley plus appearances by Fed Chairman Bernanke on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday will be closely watched. So long as Bernanke does not drop any 'QE3' hints as we suspect, the US dollar should be well supported.

post #38 of 833

Apple to host call Monday morning on cash holdings

 

Reuters) - Apple Inc said it would host a conference call on Monday morning to discuss the outcome of discussions about its cash balance as investors clamor for a return from its massive holdings.

 

Apple has $98 billion in cash and securities, sparking calls by investors to put the huge hoard to work. ISI Group analyst Brian Marshall said the cash balance equates to $104 a share.

 

Wall Street has increasingly bet that Apple will this year return cash to shareholders, taking their cue from Chief Executive Tim Cook's comments about "active discussions" at the top levels about the matter.

 

Cook recently said he had been "thinking very deeply" about investors' demands that the iPad and iPod maker return some of the cash to shareholders via a dividend.

"Frankly speaking, it's more than we need to run the company," Cook said at the annual shareholders meeting in February.

 

Analysts have said the return of cash to shareholders could take the form of a one-time dividend or share buyback to address a longstanding desire on the part of investors, while potentially opening the stock to a new class of investors who seek a dividend yield.

 

"A dividend makes sense," said Shaw Wu, analyst with Sterne Agee. The decision "is probably going to be pretty binary. It's going to be either yes or no. Many are hoping the answer is going to be yes.

 

"It's more likely they are considering it. I am not sure they are going to necessarily say it's to be effective immediately," Wu said.

 

On the alternative of a buyback, Wu said it would be possible, but the value to shareholders would be more questionable.

"The issue with (a) buyback is that the payback for investors is not as tangible. With a dividend, you get a check in the mail," Wu said.

Wu discounted the possibility of a stock split, saying it makes it more difficult to beat earnings consensus numbers.

 

Mounting anticipation over a buyback, along with hopes the newest iPad will keep sales momentum strong, helped propel Apple's stock to a record high this month past $600 a share and has made Apple the most valuable U.S. company by market capitalization. The stock on Friday closed at $585.57.

ISI's Marshall said a dividend would drive additional stock purchases from top 20 dividend mutual funds and other investors as they make Apple a top holding.

 

Marshall said a dividend could be as high as $14.65 per share annually.

The Apple call, to be held at 9 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT) on Monday, will not provide an update on the current quarter nor will it touch upon any topics other than cash, the company said in a statement on Sunday.

 

Apple declined to comment further on the press advisory.

 

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/19/us-apple-idUSBRE82F03N20120319

post #39 of 833


i concur as i generally do with you bull.. and the markets have been disconnected in some aspects. A snap back will occur, if the "trend" inst continued.

While on other matters my time frame is a little shorter than yours, same perception. All im saying is Q2 will be interesting and the closing of fiscal.

Whats on the plate for this week BOE concerns and state..

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbull View Post

I have to agree. What happens between now and the close is irrelevant unless new 52-week highs or lows (on intra-day basis) are made. What matters is were markets close relative to where they open. The breakout we just now got is inconsequential. Same would be true if we got a breakdown. Again, its all about were you close relative to were you opened. 
 



 



 

post #40 of 833

ya its been posted before.. as for people not reading it or understanding it they should ask, which some aspects are and others are flat.

If your a bear you can see quite a bit.... let alone overall both trends narrowing and going to be pinched.

 

Oh but were not overbought, 3 months of gains lol...when i can pull up pretty much any stock and see overbought and stretched indicators.

Think companies will improve with earnings and EPS.. its doubtful.


 

Quote:
Originally Posted by rando View Post


Here is why you are wondering why people think the market is overbought... McClellan Oscillator has closed above zero only ONCE starting Feb 13. So that portrays a lack of being overbought, which in this case, if you're a bear, means you need to switch the thesis to negative divergence from overbought. Also, notice how far down NYMO spiked on that last mini-selloff, that was more of a rest/breather than it seemed at the time.
454


 

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