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Stock Market Intraday Chat: Mar 19th - 23rd  

post #1 of 833
Thread Starter 

Last week traded strong, still pushing the upper boundary of the wedge:

 

chart.ashx?t=SPY&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l

 

 

Economic calendar:

 

Monday Mar 19







Housing Starts
[Report][Star]
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
[Bullet
8:55 AM ET






Weekly Bill Settlement

Jobless Claims
[Report][Star]
8:30 AM ET


Leading Indicators
[Report][Bullet
10:00 AM ET









Money Supply
[Bullet
4:30 PM ET

New Home Sales
[Report][Star]
10:00 AM ET
Equity Settlement
3-22-12
Equity Settlement
3-23-12
Equity Settlement
3-26-12
Equity Settlement
3-27-12
Equity Settlement
3-28-12

 

THE STOCK MARKET THREAD GUIDELINES

  • Respect your fellow traders. This means no insults, derogatory remarks or any other type of behavior that derails the thread.
  • Keep off topic chatter to a minimum. If the market is flat and nothing is happening, we do not mind hearing about your weekend and your hot girlfriend. If the market is moving and trades are flying the best thing to do is post important stock related events that can help your fellow traders.
  • Are you new? Hold your questions until the end of the trading day, or post them in the Stock Market Education section.

Edited by Bob Korreck - 3/17/12 at 5:08pm
post #2 of 833
Thread Starter 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors are beginning to wonder if this Energizer Bunny of a rally can just keep going without taking a break or a fall.

 

Every Friday for the past couple of months, the question has hung in the back of investors' minds: Is the stock market's rally strong enough to continue without a correction? Even with the S&P 500 above levels unseen since before the financial crisis, the answer remains: Yes.

 

The broad market index broke through 1,400 - a psychologically important level - for the first time in four years this week. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 1,404.17, its highest since May 20, 2008. The index is up for nine out of the past 10 weeks.

 

"We are seeing this unbelievable rally in the market and yet the market is unbelievably complacent. We haven't been this bullish for a long time,"

post #3 of 833

Should be able to gap up above 1400 on the /es on monday thumbup.gif

post #4 of 833
Thread Starter 

The stock market struggled for direction on Friday, wavering between small gains and losses for most of the day. The Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq composite index closed lower, while the Standard & Poor's 500 rose.

 

The Dow fell 20.14 points, or 0.2 percent, to 13,232.62.

 

The S&P 500 rose 1.57 points, or 0.1 percent, to 1,404.17.

 

The Nasdaq fell 1.11 points, or 0.04 percent, to 3,055.26.

 

For the week:

 

The Dow is up 310.60 points, or 2.4 percent.

 

The S&P 500 is up 33.30 points, or 2.4 percent

 

The Nasdaq is up 66.92 points, or 2.2 percent.

 

For the year so far:

 

The Dow is up 1,015.06 points, or 8.3 percent.

 

The S&P 500 is up 146.57 points, or 11.7 percent.

post #5 of 833
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Mike View Post

Should be able to gap up above 1400 on the /es on monday thumbup.gif



 

I had posted somewhere that I think 1405 is a good number.

post #6 of 833
Thread Starter 

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greek banks hard-hit by the country's debt swap might not need all the aid earmarked by the EU and IMF to help them weather the crisis, central bank chief George Provopoulos was quoted as saying on Saturday.

The European Union and International Monetary Fund have set aside some 50 billion euros ($65.9 billion) to recapitalize and support the lenders, the biggest private holders of Greece's debt.

post #7 of 833

i'm beginning to suspect mike is a buy algorithm.  

post #8 of 833

Watching the dollar this week to see if we get a follow through move to the upside after this little pull back.

 

fut_chart.ashx?t=DX&cot=098662&p=h1

post #9 of 833

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr.Mike View Post

Should be able to gap up above 1400 on the /es on monday thumbup.gif



I agree.. we briefly touched 1400 Friday.

post #10 of 833

This Bloomberg article contradicts the Greeks won't use up all the ear marked money article

 

IMF Staff Sees Potential Need for More European Aid to Greece

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Greece remains “accident prone” and may require further debt restructuring or additional financing from euro countries if it struggles to implement measures attached to a new 130 billion-euro ($171 billion) bailout, staff at the International Monetary Fund said.

The loan package is based “on ambitious fiscal and privatization targets and above all on a reinvigoration of structural reforms,” IMF staff wrote in a report released yesterday.

“In the event of slower progress in policy implementation, or failure of the economy to respond rapidly enough to reforms, completion of reviews may require additional support from Greece’s European partners on yet more concessional terms than currently envisaged, and-or another restructuring of bonded debt,” according to the report.

The Washington-based IMF, which is already lending to Portugal and Ireland, has reduced its share in the second Greek bailout as it sees its exposure to the euro region posing what the staff called “unprecedented financial risks” to its finances. It has also pushed European governments to boost their own bailout fund in an effort to protect Spain and Italy from contagion.

The IMF board this week approved a 28-billion-euro loan for Greece. About 18.3 billion euros is fresh money, as the four- year arrangement follows a 2010 program that was canceled and left 9.7 billion euros undisbursed.

The IMF calculates that the euro region will account for 80 percent of its credits in 2014. Greece is expected to start repaying its first loan to the fund next year.

‘Off Track’

“If the program goes off track, Greece’s capacity to meet its obligations to the fund would hinge critically on the willingness of European partners to continue to backstop Greece’s payments capacity and the Eurosystem’s capacity to backstop bank liquidity while further efforts are put in place to stabilize the Greek economy,” IMF staff warned.

The IMF estimates Greece’s financing needs to reach 164.5 billion euros through 2014 and to range from 8 billion euros to 21 billion euros for 2015 and the first quarter of 2016, depending on progress in restoring the country’s market access.

Greece completed the world’s largest sovereign-debt restructuring and had to agree to deeper spending cuts to obtain the new funds as it faces a fifth year of recession. The new program also seeks to overhaul the country’s economy from public enterprises to the labor market to make it more competitive.

The Greek government must continue to meet the conditions set by its international creditors to receive aid payments at three-monthly intervals.

The IMF report said the new program was “subject to exceptional risks,” including upcoming elections that create uncertainty over whether the measures will implemented.

“The materialization of these risks would most likely require additional debt relief by the official sector and, short of that, lead to a sovereign default,” it wrote. “In the absence of continued official support and access to” refinancing by the European Central Bank, “a disorderly euro exit would be unavoidable.”

post #11 of 833
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hermanpu View Post

This Bloomberg article contradicts the Greeks won't use up all the ear marked money article

 

IMF Staff Sees Potential Need for More European Aid to Greece

 

So did we learn something Herm? Like maybe don't pay to much attention to the news. laughing.gif

post #12 of 833

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobK View Post

 

So did we learn something Herm? Like maybe don't pay to much attention to the news. laughing.gif



Tape Readers shun news.. at all times cool.gif

post #13 of 833

Of course the outlook is bullish. If you have been trading your charts accordingly, you should be accumulating handsome profits.

The trend has been considerably up since Christmas, so fading the dips and selling the rallies has been key. I say we have more

upside, I'm bullish until the tape tells me otherwise. 

 

Now to continue in this upward channel we will probably see the SPY test around 138.5 or even lower to 136. And so it continues..

have a keen eye to catch the dips and tops. The markets will keep moving up until it can't find anymore buyers. Until this up move 

shuts off buying, I'm a bull. 

 

A interesting thing to note is on the 13th we had a very large volume bar, which accompanied a huge mark up. This was the largest

volume bar this year. Could this be a final flush of buyers? Who knows. But it's worth watching. popcorn.gif

 

After looking at the major banks and leaders, it's interesting to note that the volume had picked up immensely. I smell distribution in the air. hmm.gif

 

Screen Shot 2012-03-17 at 5.05.42 PM.png

 

 

post #14 of 833

Why does everyone think that the market is "overbought" or what ever. I just dont get it, someone paint me a picturelaughing.gif

post #15 of 833

ya know.. when there is a rising wedge.. it doesn't necessary mean the uptrend will continue after its pinched and i believe the path of least Resistance is down. Generally a rising wedge when near its completion is BEARISH.   "The rising wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows"... they generally do reverse. You cant get any more weddie than its been and extends quite a far ways back, there is no hand off to another wedge.. only a down move (testing the bottom and potential break down) and consolidation remains. (once pinched)

 

Looking at the charts, fibs volume and other items .. it doesnt look very bullish to me. Indicative of last week.

The sideways movement we have seen has established a downward channel and will become relevant if Monday/Tuesday isnt all fairy dust and rainbows..

Fridays pinning and trade was pretty even and in very tight range.

 

Do not  be complacent believing in bull market from here always have a shred of doubt. The market inst wired to be just bullish or one of anything.

Also i think the Nasdaq has been carrying most of the weight on this move up and if it continues will be based on the Nasdaq and the associated leaders.

Which she is at 161.8 Retracement, and really doesnt have too much more if anymore to give not to mention she extended outside the BB bands.

I mean really 250%?... i dont think i have ever seen that on a index.... same levels apply to ES also.....

 

Yes earnings are starting again,.. but as i said 2 season ago, we will start to see margin compression and revised estimates downward in Q1 2012 and so on.. Look back at Q1 it was mixed at best since we started to see this compression, and i think will get more, revisting some aspect of the lows depending on time validity.

Its a healthy cycle and pull back.. if it didnt do a pullback then no one would invest as it would be and has been over bloated. Carry trade is half broken and will just dissipate even more the closer we get to April.. and then May June area.. 

 

the market is overbought, go look at some indicators mike, they are over 70 and 80 levels which indicate such.

ES RSI from Oct until now is at 71.26 rsi  -- DOW is at 69.75 rsi  .. these are just the very bottom of the barrel on why its over bought.

There are other inherit risks coming down the road as well, and its better to shed the weight now, than continue until were 100 pound heavier and butt up against elections ( EU and US )

 

JMO

 

 

Anyways some charts..pulled.

 

 

CHART ES PINCH.png

 

 

ES example.png


Edited by mjoke - 3/18/12 at 8:02am
post #16 of 833

How many times do they have to say its done.. no more nadda. Germany is sick of it and with the elections and political powers changing, its so doubtful. I think this is not going to happen lol.. Think of the pressure they are under not to do it.  Also as mentioned its not just greece anymore, spain has requested revisions also, the example was already set.. so why should one child have it when all 4 want the same toy? Playing favorites... eh. ... also i disagree with their assessment  its not 2014, its more like end of this year from what i have read, im looking at end of Q2.. if not then start of 2013 again.. since they will not do it with the US elections on going and from a market point of view, things are already at a peak, they got some money with the latest bribe i mean bail out,.... so why not do it now?? Shed the excess gains in the market, it will be a wash, and end up at normal levels sorta speak.
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by hermanpu View Post

This Bloomberg article contradicts the Greeks won't use up all the ear marked money article

 

IMF Staff Sees Potential Need for More European Aid to Greece

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Greece remains “accident prone” and may require further debt restructuring or additional financing from euro countries if it struggles to implement measures attached to a new 130 billion-euro ($171 billion) bailout, staff at the International Monetary Fund said.

The loan package is based “on ambitious fiscal and privatization targets and above all on a reinvigoration of structural reforms,” IMF staff wrote in a report released yesterday.

“In the event of slower progress in policy implementation, or failure of the economy to respond rapidly enough to reforms, completion of reviews may require additional support from Greece’s European partners on yet more concessional terms than currently envisaged, and-or another restructuring of bonded debt,” according to the report.

The Washington-based IMF, which is already lending to Portugal and Ireland, has reduced its share in the second Greek bailout as it sees its exposure to the euro region posing what the staff called “unprecedented financial risks” to its finances. It has also pushed European governments to boost their own bailout fund in an effort to protect Spain and Italy from contagion.

The IMF board this week approved a 28-billion-euro loan for Greece. About 18.3 billion euros is fresh money, as the four- year arrangement follows a 2010 program that was canceled and left 9.7 billion euros undisbursed.

The IMF calculates that the euro region will account for 80 percent of its credits in 2014. Greece is expected to start repaying its first loan to the fund next year.

‘Off Track’

“If the program goes off track, Greece’s capacity to meet its obligations to the fund would hinge critically on the willingness of European partners to continue to backstop Greece’s payments capacity and the Eurosystem’s capacity to backstop bank liquidity while further efforts are put in place to stabilize the Greek economy,” IMF staff warned.

The IMF estimates Greece’s financing needs to reach 164.5 billion euros through 2014 and to range from 8 billion euros to 21 billion euros for 2015 and the first quarter of 2016, depending on progress in restoring the country’s market access.

Greece completed the world’s largest sovereign-debt restructuring and had to agree to deeper spending cuts to obtain the new funds as it faces a fifth year of recession. The new program also seeks to overhaul the country’s economy from public enterprises to the labor market to make it more competitive.

The Greek government must continue to meet the conditions set by its international creditors to receive aid payments at three-monthly intervals.

The IMF report said the new program was “subject to exceptional risks,” including upcoming elections that create uncertainty over whether the measures will implemented.

“The materialization of these risks would most likely require additional debt relief by the official sector and, short of that, lead to a sovereign default,” it wrote. “In the absence of continued official support and access to” refinancing by the European Central Bank, “a disorderly euro exit would be unavoidable.”



 

post #17 of 833
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Mike View Post

Why does everyone think that the market is "overbought" or what ever. I just dont get it, someone paint me a picturelaughing.gif



 

I don't think it is. Buy everything in sight.

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve bank said on Friday it had made mistakes in calculating bank losses in stress test results released this week.

But the Federal Reserve noted the revisions -- which affect Citigroup (NYS:C), Bank of America (NYS:BAC - News), and three others -- have no effect on key figures like capital ratios, which estimate how bank reserves would fare under scenarios imagined by the tests, which include skyrocketing unemployment, a tanking market and a deep recession.

In results first released on Tuesday, the Fed gave glowing marks to most of the large banks, passing 15 out of 19 tested, and underscoring the recovery of the financial sector.

post #18 of 833

nope! just got my tax refund.. buying whatever i can ASAP monday

post #19 of 833
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by tones View Post

nope! just got my tax refund.. buying whatever i can ASAP monday



Check my post in the BAC thread.

 

post #20 of 833

Futures alive!

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