Should be able to gap up above 1400 on the /es on monday

i'm beginning to suspect mike is a buy algorithm.  

Watching the dollar this week to see if we get a follow through move to the upside after this little pull back.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr.Mike 

Should be able to gap up above 1400 on the /es on monday

I agree.. we briefly touched 1400 Friday.

This Bloomberg article contradicts the Greeks won't use up all the ear marked money article

IMF Staff Sees Potential Need for More European Aid to Greece

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Greece remains “accident prone” and may require further debt restructuring or additional financing from euro countries if it struggles to implement measures attached to a new 130 billion-euro ($171 billion) bailout, staff at the International Monetary Fund said.

The loan package is based “on ambitious fiscal and privatization targets and above all on a reinvigoration of structural reforms,” IMF staff wrote in a report released yesterday.

“In the event of slower progress in policy implementation, or failure of the economy to respond rapidly enough to reforms, completion of reviews may require additional support from Greece’s European partners on yet more concessional terms than currently envisaged, and-or another restructuring of bonded debt,” according to the report.

The Washington-based IMF, which is already lending to Portugal and Ireland, has reduced its share in the second Greek bailout as it sees its exposure to the euro region posing what the staff called “unprecedented financial risks” to its finances. It has also pushed European governments to boost their own bailout fund in an effort to protect Spain and Italy from contagion.

The IMF board this week approved a 28-billion-euro loan for Greece. About 18.3 billion euros is fresh money, as the four- year arrangement follows a 2010 program that was canceled and left 9.7 billion euros undisbursed.

The IMF calculates that the euro region will account for 80 percent of its credits in 2014. Greece is expected to start repaying its first loan to the fund next year.

‘Off Track’

“If the program goes off track, Greece’s capacity to meet its obligations to the fund would hinge critically on the willingness of European partners to continue to backstop Greece’s payments capacity and the Eurosystem’s capacity to backstop bank liquidity while further efforts are put in place to stabilize the Greek economy,” IMF staff warned.

The IMF estimates Greece’s financing needs to reach 164.5 billion euros through 2014 and to range from 8 billion euros to 21 billion euros for 2015 and the first quarter of 2016, depending on progress in restoring the country’s market access.

Greece completed the world’s largest sovereign-debt restructuring and had to agree to deeper spending cuts to obtain the new funds as it faces a fifth year of recession. The new program also seeks to overhaul the country’s economy from public enterprises to the labor market to make it more competitive.

The Greek government must continue to meet the conditions set by its international creditors to receive aid payments at three-monthly intervals.

The IMF report said the new program was “subject to exceptional risks,” including upcoming elections that create uncertainty over whether the measures will implemented.

“The materialization of these risks would most likely require additional debt relief by the official sector and, short of that, lead to a sovereign default,” it wrote. “In the absence of continued official support and access to” refinancing by the European Central Bank, “a disorderly euro exit would be unavoidable.”

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobK 

 

So did we learn something Herm? Like maybe don't pay to much attention to the news.

Tape Readers shun news.. at all times 

Of course the outlook is bullish. If you have been trading your charts accordingly, you should be accumulating handsome profits.

The trend has been considerably up since Christmas, so fading the dips and selling the rallies has been key. I say we have more

upside, I'm bullish until the tape tells me otherwise. 

Now to continue in this upward channel we will probably see the SPY test around 138.5 or even lower to 136. And so it continues..

have a keen eye to catch the dips and tops. The markets will keep moving up until it can't find anymore buyers. Until this up move 

shuts off buying, I'm a bull. 

A interesting thing to note is on the 13th we had a very large volume bar, which accompanied a huge mark up. This was the largest

volume bar this year. Could this be a final flush of buyers? Who knows. But it's worth watching. 

After looking at the major banks and leaders, it's interesting to note that the volume had picked up immensely. I smell distribution in the air. 

Why does everyone think that the market is "overbought" or what ever. I just dont get it, someone paint me a picture

ya know.. when there is a rising wedge.. it doesn't necessary mean the uptrend will continue after its pinched and i believe the path of least Resistance is down. Generally a rising wedge when near its completion is BEARISH.   "The rising wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows"... they generally do reverse. You cant get any more weddie than its been and extends quite a far ways back, there is no hand off to another wedge.. only a down move (testing the bottom and potential break down) and consolidation remains. (once pinched)

Looking at the charts, fibs volume and other items .. it doesnt look very bullish to me. Indicative of last week.

The sideways movement we have seen has established a downward channel and will become relevant if Monday/Tuesday isnt all fairy dust and rainbows..

Fridays pinning and trade was pretty even and in very tight range.

Do not  be complacent believing in bull market from here always have a shred of doubt. The market inst wired to be just bullish or one of anything.

Also i think the Nasdaq has been carrying most of the weight on this move up and if it continues will be based on the Nasdaq and the associated leaders.

Which she is at 161.8 Retracement, and really doesnt have too much more if anymore to give not to mention she extended outside the BB bands.

I mean really 250%?... i dont think i have ever seen that on a index.... same levels apply to ES also.....

Yes earnings are starting again,.. but as i said 2 season ago, we will start to see margin compression and revised estimates downward in Q1 2012 and so on.. Look back at Q1 it was mixed at best since we started to see this compression, and i think will get more, revisting some aspect of the lows depending on time validity.

Its a healthy cycle and pull back.. if it didnt do a pullback then no one would invest as it would be and has been over bloated. Carry trade is half broken and will just dissipate even more the closer we get to April.. and then May June area.. 

the market is overbought, go look at some indicators mike, they are over 70 and 80 levels which indicate such.

ES RSI from Oct until now is at 71.26 rsi  -- DOW is at 69.75 rsi  .. these are just the very bottom of the barrel on why its over bought.

There are other inherit risks coming down the road as well, and its better to shed the weight now, than continue until were 100 pound heavier and butt up against elections ( EU and US )

JMO

Anyways some charts..pulled.

How many times do they have to say its done.. no more nadda. Germany is sick of it and with the elections and political powers changing, its so doubtful. I think this is not going to happen lol.. Think of the pressure they are under not to do it.  Also as mentioned its not just greece anymore, spain has requested revisions also, the example was already set.. so why should one child have it when all 4 want the same toy? Playing favorites... eh. ... also i disagree with their assessment  its not 2014, its more like end of this year from what i have read, im looking at end of Q2.. if not then start of 2013 again.. since they will not do it with the US elections on going and from a market point of view, things are already at a peak, they got some money with the latest bribe i mean bail out,.... so why not do it now?? Shed the excess gains in the market, it will be a wash, and end up at normal levels sorta speak.
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermanpu 

This Bloomberg article contradicts the Greeks won't use up all the ear marked money article

 

IMF Staff Sees Potential Need for More European Aid to Greece

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Greece remains “accident prone” and may require further debt restructuring or additional financing from euro countries if it struggles to implement measures attached to a new 130 billion-euro ($171 billion) bailout, staff at the International Monetary Fund said.

The loan package is based “on ambitious fiscal and privatization targets and above all on a reinvigoration of structural reforms,” IMF staff wrote in a report released yesterday.

“In the event of slower progress in policy implementation, or failure of the economy to respond rapidly enough to reforms, completion of reviews may require additional support from Greece’s European partners on yet more concessional terms than currently envisaged, and-or another restructuring of bonded debt,” according to the report.

The Washington-based IMF, which is already lending to Portugal and Ireland, has reduced its share in the second Greek bailout as it sees its exposure to the euro region posing what the staff called “unprecedented financial risks” to its finances. It has also pushed European governments to boost their own bailout fund in an effort to protect Spain and Italy from contagion.

The IMF board this week approved a 28-billion-euro loan for Greece. About 18.3 billion euros is fresh money, as the four- year arrangement follows a 2010 program that was canceled and left 9.7 billion euros undisbursed.

The IMF calculates that the euro region will account for 80 percent of its credits in 2014. Greece is expected to start repaying its first loan to the fund next year.

‘Off Track’

“If the program goes off track, Greece’s capacity to meet its obligations to the fund would hinge critically on the willingness of European partners to continue to backstop Greece’s payments capacity and the Eurosystem’s capacity to backstop bank liquidity while further efforts are put in place to stabilize the Greek economy,” IMF staff warned.

The IMF estimates Greece’s financing needs to reach 164.5 billion euros through 2014 and to range from 8 billion euros to 21 billion euros for 2015 and the first quarter of 2016, depending on progress in restoring the country’s market access.

Greece completed the world’s largest sovereign-debt restructuring and had to agree to deeper spending cuts to obtain the new funds as it faces a fifth year of recession. The new program also seeks to overhaul the country’s economy from public enterprises to the labor market to make it more competitive.

The Greek government must continue to meet the conditions set by its international creditors to receive aid payments at three-monthly intervals.

The IMF report said the new program was “subject to exceptional risks,” including upcoming elections that create uncertainty over whether the measures will implemented.

“The materialization of these risks would most likely require additional debt relief by the official sector and, short of that, lead to a sovereign default,” it wrote. “In the absence of continued official support and access to” refinancing by the European Central Bank, “a disorderly euro exit would be unavoidable.”

nope! just got my tax refund.. buying whatever i can ASAP monday

Futures alive!