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USHS - U.S. Home Systems Inc.

post #1 of 29
Thread Starter 
U.S. Home Systems, Inc. is engaged in the specialty product home improvement business. In the Company's home improvement business, it manufactures or procures, designs, sells and installs custom kitchen and bathroom cabinet refacing products and organizational storage systems for closets and garages. It markets, sells and installs its products and installed services through The Home Depot under a service provider agreement and a product supply agreement. Its product range includes kitchen and bathroom cabinet refacing products, storage organization systems for closets and garages and related accessories. As of December 31, 2010, its home improvement business served The Home Depot in 60 markets covering 35 states. Its kitchen refacing products are available in all 60markets encompassing approximately 1, 777 The Home Depot stores. Its bath products are offered in 17 markets, which include approximately 567 stores. In August, 2010, it sold its Woodbridge, Virginia manufacturing facility...



425
post #2 of 29
Thread Starter 
still always surprised when one like this gets by us ...
1 to 14 in 3 years...granted the first 3/4 of that was on little or no volume but still suspicious.gif
post #3 of 29
Thread Starter 
havent seen any news as to the sell off fri other than 3 days earlier seeking alpha said its overbought and due for a pullback...thumbup.gif


425
post #4 of 29

Wow,the last day of trading took away about 2 weeks of gains. That's one heck of a run up though.Crazy low float too. Seems like a good stock in a good economy and an improving housing market. The only think that would keep me away is if it went back to volume prior to the 13th of February.  Good find Kevin,I am putting it on my watch list for the future.

post #5 of 29
Thread Starter 
these guys were rt on top of it tho


Seeking Alpha release

U.S. Home Systems Overbought, Set For A Reversal
February 21, 2012 | U.S. Home Systems (USHS) manufactures or procures, designs, sells and installs "custom kitchen and bathroom cabinet refacing products and organizational storage systems for closets and garages" (Q3 10-Q). It does that exclusively through the Home Depot (HD). The kitchen refacing segment is by far the most important for the company.

Many of these products are bought on credit, but the Home Depot credit program has a whopping 20.3% decline rate, so US Home Systems is actively looking for financing alternatives.

This one keeps on going but once again, we think that the time has come for some profit taking. We advised on one profitable short side trade in this name a couple of weeks ago , and now do so again.



The stock is going almost parabolic. It has doubled this year and is up from $5 a share as long ago as last October. There isn't much new information on the fundamental side of the business, even if the market capitalization has gone up significantly. Their own guidance (per the latest investor presentation at the Q3 figures) is 64 cents per share this year for 2011.

Revenues are growing at 17% (first nine months of 2011 over same period in 2010), while new orders grow at 15% and net income at a whopping 155%. The latter is mainly the result of lower opex, although marketing cost have increased.

Where we have a problem to see further imminent upside is not only the months of parabolic rise already behind us or the terribly overbought technical condition (the RSI is above 90), but the relation this has to the rather linear business model. Yes, the business is growing and 2011 profits jumped (something which they are unlikely to repeat), but we think the share price is getting ahead of itself.

The parabolic rise in the share price must be matched to a similar sort of discontinuous improvement in the business.
post #6 of 29

Yup,they were right for sure. If we ever correct,given the run up this year,I bet this would get slapped silly.

post #7 of 29

I sold at about 13, sad to miss the next two points but glad I wasn't around for the fall.  I like the company and it wasn't that hard for SA to make that call, I'll probably get back in next week if it starts to look positive again.

post #8 of 29
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by cedargrove View Post

I sold at about 13, sad to miss the next two points but glad I wasn't around for the fall.  I like the company and it wasn't that hard for SA to make that call, I'll probably get back in next week if it starts to look positive again.

you obviously need to see more analyst calls and upgrades/downgrades rolleyes.gif
they did the opposite of what 95% of them do and then timed it nearly perfectly on top of that ....so yea they deserve props
post #9 of 29

i actually was using a stock screener and this came up on my radar.  i came to this board hoping to find information on it but did not find any and had no idea how to start a thread. ive been commenting about it on SA.  i like the fundamentals and thats what caught my attention.

 

thanks kevin for posting this thread, much props.

 

i STILL cant find news on why the sudden drop...im so confused by that

post #10 of 29

anyone think the dust has settled?  would love to go long at market, would be perfect to get in at 12 though, but maybe i missed that boat?

any idea when earnings are?

 

**edit**

i think next earnings date is march 27

post #11 of 29
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluesmap View Post

anyone think the dust has settled?  would love to go long at market, would be perfect to get in at 12 though, but maybe i missed that boat?
any idea when earnings are?

**edit**
i think next earnings date is march 27
Quote:
i think next earnings date is march 27

that is what i see also
post #12 of 29
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluesmap View Post

anyone think the dust has settled?  would love to go long at market, would be perfect to get in at 12 though, but maybe i missed that boat?
any idea when earnings are?

**edit**
i think next earnings date is march 27

idk yet...im not a bottom fisher so i wait for more clear confirmation than just one day...i would wann see it close over 13 securely first...otherwise a H&S set up could be in the making which could be making way for more downside...IMO


425
post #13 of 29

so tempting.  i was loving this stock at yesterday's open, but my funds were slow to reach TD.

 

yeah i do see your point, although i was looking for a close above 12.50 LOL

might be an overall tough day, i see lots of red, unsure how that will affect ushs today, i guess we'll watch it unfold!!

post #14 of 29

wow.  down TO 10.76 at opening bell.  HOLY!!!

post #15 of 29
Thread Starter 
thats why i wait...i need more confirmation than most...sometimes i wait too long but id rather be sure wink.gif
post #16 of 29
Thread Starter 
will see how goes now...market bring it down as well as it coming off overbought levels itself...9s arent out of the question at all


425
post #17 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevin1612 View Post

will see how goes now...market bring it down as well as it coming off overbought levels itself...9s arent out of the question at all
 


 

WHOA!!  am i glad i waited.  i wonder if earnings has anything to do with this.....or some connected homedepot news (although i doubt hd news has affected it in the past.)

 

 yeah you were right, this is a waiting game

post #18 of 29
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluesmap View Post



 
WHOA!!  am i glad i waited.  i wonder if earnings has anything to do with this.....or some connected homedepot news (although i doubt hd news has affected it in the past.)

 yeah you were right, this is a waiting game

They did say something about credit or something in recent pr with Depot
post #19 of 29
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevin1612 View Post

They did say something about credit or something in recent pr with Depot
Quote:
U.S. Home Systems Overbought, Set For A Reversal
February 21, 2012 | U.S. Home Systems (USHS) manufactures or procures, designs, sells and installs "custom kitchen and bathroom cabinet refacing products and organizational storage systems for closets and garages" (Q3 10-Q). It does that exclusively through the Home Depot (HD). The kitchen refacing segment is by far the most important for the company.

Many of these products are bought on credit, but the Home Depot credit program has a whopping 20.3% decline rate, so US Home Systems is actively looking for financing alternatives.
post #20 of 29

looks like we're heading south of 10....scary stuff.  i wish there were options for USHS

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