Stock Market Intraday Chat: Mar 5th - 9th - Page 46

don't kick people when they're down...because they could have a gun pointed at your crotch...

 

Just entered SPY 141 puts. Thank gosh CMG is flat today and PCLN is actually down, I expect further downside. Only losing put I have so far is CRM. Looking to average down on that.

Thanks Rock. You are right, I am not a fan of averaging down and would never use such words, if it were the stock of a bad company. However, UVXY is a "volatility/VIX" related ETF and cannot go out of business. The low on VIX for the last 5 years is around 16 and it is at 16.92 now. So, we are approaching a multi year lows and it always bounces back big time when the correction comes. After this bull (s***) rally, the probability of VIX recovering soon is very high. It may take a month for the market to go down but it will go down and a 20% return with an entry at 28.29 is highly probable, if one is willing to wait. It is a matter of time frames. To be politically correct, I should not be saying all this but this is what I think honestly and prefer to say it out. Everyone should examine all facts and make a decision that they think is right!

 

 

 

lol @ examine facts.. whatever. this is a classic example of playing with volatility and not knowing what to expect on events that you have such a stern opinion on. I would say it was overlooking the facts and other signals. As i said before at least your stock and the losses are manageable as opposed to some people who play the options. Youll be holding that position for awhile rather than the few days you had planned on.. sorry.

 

 

Next week its another story in regards to the bullish activity this week.
 

 

Do you also take into consideration that this is election year?
 

 

If anyone is interested on position size..I use the 1% rule which means any trade i take i only risk 1% of my portfolio on any trade for example lets say you have $50,000 and i want to enter TZA what i would do is set up my trade this way..1% risk on $50,000 is $500 TZA is trading at $18.50 with a 10 day movement average of $1.00 so my trade is 500 shares X $18.50 = $9,250 which is 20% of portfolio and now i split that into 1/3 positions so i scale in based on movement..I set my stop at $17.50 because of a 3X ETF you do not want to get stopped out and there is where the 10 day average comes in so my max loss is $500..I will also trail my stop as the price of TZA rises based on FIB retracements...

Herman the point is not "having more/less positions opened". The point is their SIZE!

 

Simple example: if I use 5% of my capital in 1 position and I get stopped out lets say 20% bellow, that represents 1% loss of my capital. Thats something that I can live with...

However if in a bad month I have "cold hands" and loose twice, lets say 10% in a couple of trades, then....OH BOY!
 

 

So who bought MCP? It sure did take off Up 12% and the calls even more..

Them $28 weekly MCP calls went from $.04 to $1.42 and them $29 calls went from $.02 to $.51 For every $1000 that would have been a good $25K Damn

Hopefully you learn the next time you do naked options to at least set a hard stop. If you are going naked, a stop would have preventing this position from getting way out of control. At this point, AAPL is just begging to take a run for $550 and who knows what happens then.

next time take your own advice and buy.......unless you did...
 

 

Philo, I'm close to being sure you don't understand the negative roll yield in ETPs with VIX as underlying. You do realize that so long as VIX futures are in contango, you're paying a rental fee for holding those shares, right? Last I checked it was around 9% per month, and it has been over 8% for a few months I believe. This also does not take into account the decay due to volatility in VIX futures.
Finally, I believe the VIX low you are referencing is between 14.40-14.60 from last July, not 16 as you stated.

I am kicking myself in the ass right now pretty hard as I was following that one quite closely but for some reason bought SLV calls and left the other half to back them up. I was going to actually use the other half to buy MCP call options. Was wondering what others thought as well yesterday but no one replied back to me so I passed on it I feel so sad because I had actually typed in an order yesterday for $10K but then deleted the order as I was typing it in. That $10K would have been $250K today. I want to kill myself

No one in their right mind would buy a call 10% otm a day before expiration without a known catalyst like earnings report or court decision, product approval etc. Better chance buying a powerball ticket

A normal person would be buying the $25 or $26 calls yesterday, would have a nice gain but not less than 10 bagger.

The only holders would have purchased it as MCP was coming down all the way from $70.

Whoever sold those calls short and didn't lock in profits must be pissed lol

Hi there Dave! Hope youre fine...!

 

We are a minor economy as you know, so highly dependent of general environment. Our main drive for growth has been recently exporting. However you can only export what others are buying...and our trading market per excelence is Europe, some portuguese native language countries (Angola, Mozambique and Brazil), so we are dependt of their internal growth.

 

We have huge problems for sure, I wont camuflate that, however we are (Portugal and Greece) diferent nations with far different attitudes. I dont believe seeing in Lisbon cities the same pattern of behaviour we all saw in Athens (despite SJe view that bet with me seeing Lisbon in flames....).

 

Next years will be hard, emigration will keep rising, but we will adapt as we have been doing for 900 years. Portuguese are like the cockroaches...they will survive after Armagedean...

 

Final note: one well known story, quite well documented...during first century AC, when roman empire reached Iberia (Portugal and Spain) they found a strange people living at the western part, which they fought heavily and finally beat down. After several years of batlles, guerrilla fighting, etc submition was made, however with an heavy cost for both sides. Roman general wrote dawn on his final report, after conquest..."strange people this one living here...they  dont want to be rulled by others, however at the same time they dont know how to rull themselves...".

 

So resuming, method and organization its not our strong aspect, as noted by roman general, but flexibility yes. We are still here after romans had gone, arabs had gone, spanish had gone, Napoleon troops had gone....

 

 

 

 

 

...well, at least you didn't lose money...

 

I remember when POT was around $100, and I was going to do a lotto play on day before expy ( .05 was the ask price )...the next day it jumped and I would have made about $1.2 million...talk about kick myself

 

 

 

shorting copper from here until EOD.. i wouldnt recommend this.

 

 

I wanted to do a quick follow up on this post from this Tuesday because it seems reliable for the most part. It is not in any way meant to add insult to injury to anyone who is down on their short positions.

 

First of all, it seems as though this is quite reliable. Extreme movements like this especially after a steady climb shows excessive fear, and results in price action extending outside the bands. I am defining extreme by the candle body being out 80% or more outside the lower Bband. The premise is that, by the end of the day or within the next day, price will have a momentary bounce in the opposite direction. Whether it continues  in the main trend is irrelevant.

What is relevant however, is this:

• being hedged if you are net short, are in profit, but do not want take the paper profits yet - if the index reverses the next day, you lose a big chunk of your profits. Instead, if you saw this move, you would buy puts and sell calls for a debit, but it locks in profit and gives you a downside protection of a few dollars for a few days (if using weeklies and TZA, which I am assuming here)
• lets say the position does reverse, but then is sold into heavily again - at this point, once it breaks the previous low, just buy back the calls and ride the remainder of the profit potential on the downside

 

NOTE - An arguement against can be made by looking at stocks with huge momentum behind them, and they can stay outside the upper Bband for a few days and not reverse. While this is true, it is an exception to the rule and doesn't really affect anything because we are looking at the broad index, that one stock has greatly reduced effect on the index overall. 

 

2nd NOTE - This observation might only be relevant for the present time frame. As such, I'm going to be looking back at several years and see how many times this played out favourably. I anticipate the results to hold.

 

Russel 2000

 

This is what we have now. MACD reversed just before tagging the zero line, RSI is now reset and ready to climb back up. MACD about to have another bullish crossover over... 50 DMA bounce, overall the highs might be taken out with ease this time around. Only worrying thing is the declining volume on the IWM on the way back up (2nd chart below). Since we saw such a huge sized price range with proportionally smaller volume today, we can infer one important thing:

 

• Bullish oriented investors met very little resistance today and bears are back on the sidelines.
• But this means the move up is also rather weak due to lack of participation.

 

 

 

still waiting on a decision from ISDA on the CDS payouts.. need an announcement.. This will come before market closes.. i hope