Ahh, this must be it..deal reached on second Greek bailout

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/21/us-greece-idUSTRE8120HI20120221

Yeah that's it, but the timing of that didn't look right at all. Usually Twitter goes haywire with news right when the move happens, this time there was a significant lag. I think some big money was able to front run the official announcement in good size, not that it surprises many, but that looked very suspicious.

I went long right before that news was released at 62.75 /ES

Luck or price coming before news? (which is my belief). 

Probably a little bit of both. 

Too bad it didn't move as much as /CL and /6E did. 

 

I got 12 of the 16 ticks /ES moved. 

Not a big trade but statistically, it was a decent move. 

How the market digests this will be interesting.

 

Catching a piece of that was awesome. I had my papertrade account open and managed to scalp a little of it. 

We'll see how things open up in the morning, a deal hasn't actually been finalized yet officially and that 100 pip surge is already wearing off.

I recall folks here remarking on the divergence on the dow transports;  (hitherto I never heard anyone call it the "Dow Theory")

 

Investors beware of the Dow Theory’s bite

By Michael Mackenzie in New York

Amid all the optimism that has driven global share prices higher, a warning signal has been flashing in the US market. Key equity markets have rallied 20 per cent since October on investor hopes that Europe might eventually muddle through its crisis and China will negotiate a soft economic landing.

However, the earnings outlook is increasingly cloudy and one popular market trend watched closely by investors – the relationship between the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the broader Dow Jones Industrial Average – is signalling caution.

 

 

Under an old market rule of thumb popularly known as “Dow Theory”, when this relationship diverges, it is an early warning that a change in broad market sentiment is brewing. This month the Dow Jones Transportation Average, consisting of 20 airline, railway, shipping and freight companies and thus seen as a solid barometer of underlying economic activity, hit its high for the year, a gain of 33 per cent since shares bottomed last October.

Subsequently, transports have turned and are down 1.5 per cent this month. That contrasts with the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gain of 2.5 per cent in February, an overall rally of 21.5 per cent since last October.

 

[more here:  http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fb1e8376-5bda-11e1-bbc4-00144feabdc0.html  ]

 

 

 

greece getting a 2nd bailout is nothing to celebrate about... . we gap down tomorrow.

 

i think we gap up tommorow.

 

 

 

/ES consolidating 1362-1368 range. 

 

 

 

Okay there bear play the market with that attitude and see how far that gets you...

Go bullish and see how far that will get you, literally.. not much more upside here jmo.

its been profitable the last 2 week and seems like it will be this week and next.

 

edit: Bonds have been cut 53.3%.. above 50% as indicated prior.. i dont think it stop there either. Always possible revision in later dates.

 

Edit2: 13094 on the DOW is double the low . double is a milestone but more interesting is the SP.

people have noticed that we have had a huge run, and will wait to buy on a dip.. which some think wont come,.. obviously i think it will either on sentiment or other factors.

A push higher is indicative with fair valuation, which i dont see currently nor a even spread across the board. Adjustment of these attributes needs to take place before that.

 

Edit 3: lol.. its unfortunate for the older generation who relies on bonds and such which are being "played with" to the income generation inst as much and are being forced into the markets, but rather sit on their hands waiting for some confirmation. 22% of all divi payments go to the top 400 earners in the country. The disparity of wealth is more applicable to unrealized capital gains, which have to be realized sometime, and if the tax code is changing youll see it happen faster than you can fart.

Edited by mjoke - 2/21/12 at 8:16am

 

Greece's official announcement on the terms of its debt restructuring warns those who do not wish to participate in the debt swap that parliament will soon pass a law to insert a collective action clause (CAC) into eligible Greek paper, essentially forcing participation upon the entire (private) creditor class.

apple is doing very well in premarket 506.50 at the moment, could see 510+ today.

 

 

 

 

 

If you really want to see how great the economy is, do a internet search for:

 

layoffs 2012

 

You'll see how many large companies are planning layoffs this year.

Okay so if I went bearish since the rally started in October I would have done better right? Your mind is already determined to be a bear and you will side with every possible excuse to defend that position. I trade the trends and the trend currently is bullish...The past is no indicator on how the future will trade...
 

 

ES wedging, lower highs off of Friday AM high/support since the opening session

 

Gap from Sundays 1360 closed, lets see how much ammo the bulls have here.

 

Internals mildly green, they can do it.

 

The market seems a bit weak so far this morning, especially after the "great" news from Greece.  I wonder if this rally is finally tiring itself out...

I do not see a necessary link between the first part and the bolded part. For the rally to continue, the best thing it can see is some digestion and consolidation between 1350-1370. If we get that, the next round of bullish media could give a nice thrust up through that level to take out last year's high. Anything over ES 1340 and I can't get bearish. The rally has worked so well that anticipating the top has been rendered a pointless exercise in futility and "eventually the top call will be right."