Welcome to the middle of February!

Next thing you know it will be summer!

We traded in a fairly tight 20 point range last week, many here are waiting to see some sort of pullback to consolidate the recent gains, but we have yet to see any kind of pressure take hold from the bear camp:

On the economic front:

Monday Feb 13	Tuesday Feb 14	Wednesday Feb 15	Thursday Feb 16	Friday Feb 17
Market Focus » 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 7:30 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET Charles Plosser Speaks 8:45 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET	3-Yr Note Settlement 10-Yr Note Settlement 30-Yr Bond Settlement MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET Richard Fisher Speaks 9:15 AM ET Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET	Weekly Bill Settlement Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET Ben Bernanke Speaks 9:00 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 2-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 5-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 7-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 30-Yr TIPS Auction 1:00 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET	Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET Leading Indicators 10:00 AM ET

Possible trading channels courtesy of Dan Eric:

ZeroHedge: Key events for the coming week

Monday, February 13

• Japan GDP (Q4): We expect -1.3%qoq ann, in line with consensus after 5.6% in Q3.
• Mexico IP (Dec): Consensus expects 2.8%yoy after 3.2% in November.
• Also interesting: Turkey/Poland/Czech Dec CA

Tuesday, February 14

• UK CPI (Jan): We expect 3.7%yoy vs consensus of 3.6% after 4.2% in December.
• Euro area IP (Dec): Consensus expects -1.2%mom after -0.1% in November.
• US Retail Sales (Jan): Consensus expects 0.8%mom after 0.1% in December.
• BoJ Meeting: We expect no change from 0.10%, in line with consensus.
• India WPI (Jan): We expect 6.7%yoy, in line with consensus after 7.5% in December.
• Chile CB Meeting: Consensus expects no change from 5.00%.
• Also interesting: Hungary Dec IP/Jan CPI, Greece Q4 GDP

Wednesday, February 15

• France GDP (Q4): We expect -0.4%qoq vs consensus of -0.2% after 0.3% in Q3.
• Germany GDP (Q4): We expect -0.2%qoq vs consensus of -0.3% after 0.5% in Q3.
• Euro area GDP (Q4): We expect -0.3%qoq vs consensus of -0.4% after 0.2% in Q3.
• US Empire Manufacturing: Consensus expects 14.8 after 13.5 in January.
• US IP (Jan): Consensus expects 0.6%mom after 0.4% in December.
• BOE King Speech
• FOMC Minutes
• Eurogroup Meeting
• Also interesting: Italy/Malaysia Q4 GDP, UK Unemployment, BoE Inflation report, US TIC flows, Russia Jan IP, Poland CPI

Thursday, February 16

• Riksbank Meeting: We expect a 25bp cut to 1.50%, in line with consensus.
• Norway GDP (Q4): We expect 0.5%qoq, in line with consensus after 0.8% in Q3.
• US Housing Starts (Jan): Consensus expects 2.1%mom after -4.1% in December.
• Philadelphia Fed Survey: Consensus expects 9 after 7.3 in January.
• Singapore GDP (Q4): Consensus expects 4.2%yoy after 3.6% in Q3.
• Mexico GDP (Q4): Consensus expects 3.8%yoy after 4.5% in Q3.
• Bernanke Speech
• Also interesting: US Jan PPI, Australia Jan Unemployment, Sweden Jan CPI

Friday, February 17

• UK Retail Sales (Jan): We expect 0.0%mom vs consensus of -0.3% after 0.6% in December.
• US CPI (Jan): Consensus expects 0.3%mom after 0.0% in December.
• Canada CPI (Jan): Consensus expects 0.3%mom after -0.6% in December.

If you have stocks, strategies and ideas for this week, toss them in below!

Wall St Week Ahead:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Despite a mediocre earnings season and signs of an overbought market, Wall Street bulls are likely to remain in control next week.

So far in this earnings season, 352 companies in the S&P 500 have reported results, of which only 63 percent have beaten Wall Street estimates. This compares to a beat rate of about 70 percent on average for the past four quarters and would be the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2008.

Usually, strong earnings are associated with stock market rallies and improved investor sentiment. But despite this season's relatively weak results, the S&P is up nearly 7 percent for the year, and the index has posted gains for every single week in 2012 except for a 0.2 percent loss this week.

"The demand for risky assets is strong. There is steady buying in the market, and the money is constantly being put to work," said Brian Lazorishak, portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.

"The market is sort of overlooking the weak 2011 earnings and looking forward to an improved 2012 earnings season... It's like a green light to investors to get into risky assets."

There are a number of catalysts that have helped the market this year, including a slew of improved economic data and the Federal Reserve's vow to keep interest rates low.

Earlier this week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated his plans to hold interest rates at record lows until late 2014. Many economists were looking to see if Bernanke might waver on that stance after last week's news that hiring surged in January and the unemployment rate fell to a three-year low of 8.3 percent.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-St-Week-Ahead-Bulls-reuters-3660701507.html?x=0

Apologies to Gunit, I see you already started the thread, I hope you dont mind me making a few changes. Thank you for your initiative.

Quote:

Originally Posted by charulz 

I was fairly green on my SDS calls on Friday, but rather than take profit, I added some. After I added, I felt kinda stupid. I thought about the premium I had just paid after the VIX had popped 15%. Honestly, I should've been more patient. Probably could've added on the next move up, but the greedy bastard in me thought "BUT WHAT IF THERE IS NO POP?!?! THEN YOU JUST MISSED IT".

 

I really believe that Larry Fink had called the top with his "go 100% stocks" call. I'm not stupid enough to think that the sell off will happen right away, but I do think its around the corner.
 

With that said, the market is still technically in BTFD mode. And unlike Mjoke I am a skittish bear..

 

I guess the best way for me to put it would be.. I'm not confident, but I am armed and ready. What has me skittish is that this is awfully similar the pre QE2. And I know some of you are thinking that QE3 won't happen with the markets this strong, but If you take a look at where we were when qe2 was launched, we were near the yearly highs at the time (we had rallied from 1050 to 1200 before QE2 was announced).

 

 

Low volume = bullish. I think Rock and a few others said something to that effect. I agree. The big sellers can't sell unless they have some volume to sell into.

 

I'm not expecting some crazy ass drop when/if we do sell off. I'm looking for about 10-15% drop, which would put us around 1180-1200.

 

This is a presidential year and I do expect a rally of sorts heading into the election. So once we get that drop (hopefully soon), I will go into bull mode.

 

 

 

Being an election year, you would expect them to do everything they (the Fed) can to get us higher, but do they have any ammo left?

Did you just post a bat showing 1500?

The big mess begins at 5pm EST

Live Streams From Athens And Greek Parliament

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/12/2012 09:27 -0500

 

Today at midnight local time, 5pm Eastern, the Greek parliament is expected to pass the latest bill finalizing the terms of the second Greek bailout, which as explained yesterday has quietly increased from €130 billion to €210 billion. Needless to say, it will pass, as the opportunity cost for Greece of "pledging" to achieve unattainable targets while doing absolutely nothing, as has been shown repeatedly over the past two years, is zero. The only real questions are i) what the Greek population may do in response to this latest selling out of a population "led" by an unelected banker, which if history is any precedent, the answer is not much, and ii) how Germany will subvert this latest event, and put the bail [sic] back in Greece's court once again.

http://www.livestream.com/stopcarteltvgr

Quote:

Originally Posted by UWouldLose 

Would any of that be in english?
 

 

Find a Greek girlfriend, you have 4hrs!

Report back to us.

With pictures.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UWouldLose 

For some reason I think the Current girlfriend wouldn't approve, even if it is for a good cause.
 

How are we supposed to translate this now?

I guess a flaming molatov cocktail being thrown at police does not need much translating.