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Stock Market Intraday chat: Feb 6th - 10th - Page 34

post #661 of 1100


I think everyone knows that feeling....hope you feel better!...you'll get it back...
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tekfreak View Post

Just lost a grand today because I went against my trading rule and made a trade fueled by adrenaline without daytrades left (after i was sooo good about turning off my trade monitor at work if i ran out) 2guns.gif

 

i need a drink.



 

post #662 of 1100

Nsrs action is classic pump and dump wow. Down 50% two days in a row lol. 10 cents to $1.80 to $1 to $.50

post #663 of 1100


I need an extra $7K in my account and Ill never have to worry about not being able to get out of a position due to lack of daytrades again. Care to paypal me that friend? *bats eyelashes*laughing.gif
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by OldFart View Post


I think everyone knows that feeling....hope you feel better!...you'll get it back...
 



 



 

post #664 of 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philosuffer View Post

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/calm-storm-credit-plunges-vix-futures-jump-most-2-months?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

 

 

Nothing is as simple as it appears to be. Rock, you are right in general, when you say such peak volume as witnessed today in TVIX would normally indicate distribution of shares by the big players. However, when all detailed factors are taken into consideration, I find that today's big volume is actually accumulation by big players.

 

I am a card counter in Black Jack and got banned from playing blackjack in a lot of casinos. When I play at a casino, there is a general strategy that everyone follows such as this one (scroll to the bottom for a table).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackjack

However, as counter, I often deviate from the general rules. I get stares from other people at table when I split 10s or hit on 13 against dealer 3. In these special cases, the count (how many small or big cards left in the remaining deck that would be distributed) at the moment justifies such a deviation from the general rule.

 

TVIX has been beaten down and many players were waiting patiently on the sidelines to jump into it when the trend reversal is clearly shows itself. So, the current gain in TVIX for gives such a signal. Some of the big and medium players probably jumped in today as they notice the reversal a bit early with confidence. There will be a lot of other big players and retail that would make it go up much much more in the coming days. While today's daily volume is big, you  have to remember that TVIX has unusually high volume for 3 weeks now. So, perhaps 2 days worth of volume got exchanges in a single day due to trend reversal. But yet there is a lot more number of shares that were sitting out there (perhaps with big players) and warrants a rampup job into the future.

 

In this special context of 3 week high volume, today's high volume should be treated as normal and not as a weakness or distribution. However, I do agree that 18.2 to 18.5 would be an area, I might consider bailing out. I think it will chop around there a bit before deciding the next direction. JMO

 

 


It's improbable to accumulate on the way up on extreme levels of volume and three weeks is too little of a window to judge volume for a trend reversal.  Who do you think is selling those shares to new buyers?  SYNDICATE TRADERS!  Those shares don't come from a stockpile that reads "A gift for retail's furry hands only."  Retail is late to the bottom.  They see the move and are trying to get on en mass like a dog chasing a rabbit.  I never said this wouldn't be bottom .... but for a true trend reversal this rally will have to tail off and find a more suitable level at much lower daily volume. 

 

Trust me, you don't have to talk to me about card counting.  That's what I consider my job to be since I pay astute attention to price AND volume.  All my accumulation/pincher/creek trades are based on it.

 

This is a chart of a trust I recently traded.  It basically details what my expectations are for such a massive influx of volume.  This current TVIX bounce is a nice double bottom (from last summer) oversold pop by what is still a relatively new ETF.  Wouldn't be reading into it more than that.  At least not at this juncture.

 

HuQzS.png

 

 

 

 

 


Edited by Rock Sexton - 2/9/12 at 5:35pm
post #665 of 1100

Futures a bit lower after hours. Any note worthy earnings misses or Europe headlines? Gold sold off near  the end and euro down a smidge

post #666 of 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by hermanpu View Post

Futures a bit lower after hours. Any note worthy earnings misses or Europe headlines? Gold sold off near  the end and euro down a smidge



nuan missed

 

post #667 of 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by hermanpu View Post

Nsrs action is classic pump and dump wow. Down 50% two days in a row lol. 10 cents to $1.80 to $1 to $.50



laughing.gif

post #668 of 1100

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rock Sexton View Post

Quote:

Originally Posted by Philosuffer View Post


Missed that 30 cent scalping opportunity but not worried about further drop. The rally is on big volume and seems big players are accumulating it. The 30 cent drop is on a small volume and those big players will be happy to buy as much as anyone wants to sell between 15.6 and 15.7. I think they will ramp it up to 17 tomorrow!!

 

Again, based on the principles of supply/demand you cannot have a rally and accumulation at the same time with extreme levels of buy volume aka "distribution" volume buying climax.  Bullish volume looks more like the three levels I circled from this past fall.  I shall quote our newcomer Bahnstormer (another Wyckoff student) from one of his recent posts:

 

"Remember guys, true strength ALWAYS MANIFESTS ON DOWNBARS and true weakness ALWAYS MANIFESTS ON UPBARS. this phenomenon exists because the syndicates trade in such size that they have liquidity problems, so they MUST buy into selling from the general public and sell into buying from the general public."

 

As you can see by the daily chart, this recent move on TVIX is being sold into by those opportunists who bought on the cheap.  It IMO is not a sign that people are bullish on TVIX in the long term.  For true trend reversals you want to see average to below average volume after a selling climax has been absorbed as a sign that the syndicates are holding their shares for the longer term.  POC is still 18.00 on the 60min and that is where this move will run into problems as that is where an overwhelming amount got in thinking it was bottom.  In the face of a debt deal for Greece, they will sell to break even.  Syndicates know this.  MM's know this from seeing their books.   TVIX will need to calm down and find a better base with much lighter volume.
 

hMOBx.png

 

I've been waiting to post this graph I made for a while, and now's the perfect time cause it ties in with what you said about price and volume.

 

drawing2.png

 

 

post #669 of 1100

Have to agree with Rock here, I think we would be seeing new lows at lower volume if the trend were reversing.

 

Also with all that volume we should be seeing some dirty wide range bars but since we aren't we can conclude that someone is selling into the potential reversal.

post #670 of 1100

Another cool graphic similar to what TheShortLife posted

 

300d0a41_marketstructure.png

post #671 of 1100

WEE, WEE, WEE, WEEEH ! WEE, WEE, WEE, WEEEH ! - Aapl Calls - WEE, WEE, WEE, WEEEH ! WEE, WEE, WEE, WEEEH!

post #672 of 1100

First trade where you are in the green? 

post #673 of 1100

lol aapl is one of those stocks where the philosophy of buy high sell higher worked!
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by IchibomB View Post

First trade where you are in the green? 



 

post #674 of 1100
Originally Posted by charulz View Post

lol aapl is one of those stocks where the philosophy of buy high sell higher worked!



ha!...indeed it did. 

 

I don't trade stocks but that was definitely worth a shot for longs above 456 with a $17 stop. 

Showing buyer control first on the monthly at 456 and then the weekly above 461

 

First target 470 (1:1), second target 495 (looking at next week's development

Capture.PNG

post #675 of 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by NFT2 View Post

Have to agree with Rock here, I think we would be seeing new lows at lower volume if the trend were reversing.

 

Also with all that volume we should be seeing some dirty wide range bars but since we aren't we can conclude that someone is selling into the potential reversal.


Tellin' you those "new lows on lower volume" bounces after a selling climax are the best.  I love'em.  

 

post #676 of 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post

Ill believe it when I see it.

 

They know how to talk up the markets.

 

What better way to make money than to go long futures or options, put out some statement about how you will bail out some country, make billions off your trade.


 

Don't forget the 4 year unemployment lows!!! this is getting pretty ridiculous actually.

post #677 of 1100

wrong thread. edit...

post #678 of 1100

well things have been baked in... so anything else to carry us higher? eh..

post #679 of 1100


I think the same may be said for the other way around.

FYP

Quote:
Originally Posted by mjoke View Post

well things have been baked in... so anything else to drop us lower? eh..



 

post #680 of 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by tones View Post


 

Don't forget the 4 year unemployment lows!!! this is getting pretty ridiculous actually.



About how many years do you think it will take Mr. forward looking Market to price in this news flash?

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