Stock Market Intraday chat: Feb 6th - 10th - Page 34

Just lost a grand today because I went against my trading rule and made a trade fueled by adrenaline without daytrades left (after i was sooo good about turning off my trade monitor at work if i ran out)

i need a drink.

I think everyone knows that feeling....hope you feel better!...you'll get it back...
 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/calm-storm-credit-plunges-vix-futures-jump-most-2-months?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Nothing is as simple as it appears to be. Rock, you are right in general, when you say such peak volume as witnessed today in TVIX would normally indicate distribution of shares by the big players. However, when all detailed factors are taken into consideration, I find that today's big volume is actually accumulation by big players.

I am a card counter in Black Jack and got banned from playing blackjack in a lot of casinos. When I play at a casino, there is a general strategy that everyone follows such as this one (scroll to the bottom for a table).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackjack

However, as counter, I often deviate from the general rules. I get stares from other people at table when I split 10s or hit on 13 against dealer 3. In these special cases, the count (how many small or big cards left in the remaining deck that would be distributed) at the moment justifies such a deviation from the general rule.

TVIX has been beaten down and many players were waiting patiently on the sidelines to jump into it when the trend reversal is clearly shows itself. So, the current gain in TVIX for gives such a signal. Some of the big and medium players probably jumped in today as they notice the reversal a bit early with confidence. There will be a lot of other big players and retail that would make it go up much much more in the coming days. While today's daily volume is big, you  have to remember that TVIX has unusually high volume for 3 weeks now. So, perhaps 2 days worth of volume got exchanges in a single day due to trend reversal. But yet there is a lot more number of shares that were sitting out there (perhaps with big players) and warrants a rampup job into the future.

In this special context of 3 week high volume, today's high volume should be treated as normal and not as a weakness or distribution. However, I do agree that 18.2 to 18.5 would be an area, I might consider bailing out. I think it will chop around there a bit before deciding the next direction. JMO

Futures a bit lower after hours. Any note worthy earnings misses or Europe headlines? Gold sold off near  the end and euro down a smidge

Nsrs action is classic pump and dump wow. Down 50% two days in a row lol. 10 cents to $1.80 to $1 to $.50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Philosuffer 

Missed that 30 cent scalping opportunity but not worried about further drop. The rally is on big volume and seems big players are accumulating it. The 30 cent drop is on a small volume and those big players will be happy to buy as much as anyone wants to sell between 15.6 and 15.7. I think they will ramp it up to 17 tomorrow!!

Again, based on the principles of supply/demand you cannot have a rally and accumulation at the same time with extreme levels of buy volume aka "distribution" volume buying climax.  Bullish volume looks more like the three levels I circled from this past fall.  I shall quote our newcomer Bahnstormer (another Wyckoff student) from one of his recent posts:

"Remember guys, true strength ALWAYS MANIFESTS ON DOWNBARS and true weakness ALWAYS MANIFESTS ON UPBARS. this phenomenon exists because the syndicates trade in such size that they have liquidity problems, so they MUST buy into selling from the general public and sell into buying from the general public."

As you can see by the daily chart, this recent move on TVIX is being sold into by those opportunists who bought on the cheap.  It IMO is not a sign that people are bullish on TVIX in the long term.  For true trend reversals you want to see average to below average volume after a selling climax has been absorbed as a sign that the syndicates are holding their shares for the longer term.  POC is still 18.00 on the 60min and that is where this move will run into problems as that is where an overwhelming amount got in thinking it was bottom.  In the face of a debt deal for Greece, they will sell to break even.  Syndicates know this.  MM's know this from seeing their books.   TVIX will need to calm down and find a better base with much lighter volume.
 

First trade where you are in the green? 

lol aapl is one of those stocks where the philosophy of buy high sell higher worked!

Have to agree with Rock here, I think we would be seeing new lows at lower volume if the trend were reversing.

Also with all that volume we should be seeing some dirty wide range bars but since we aren't we can conclude that someone is selling into the potential reversal.

Ill believe it when I see it.

They know how to talk up the markets.

What better way to make money than to go long futures or options, put out some statement about how you will bail out some country, make billions off your trade.

well things have been baked in... so anything else to drop us lower? eh..

Don't forget the 4 year unemployment lows!!! this is getting pretty ridiculous actually.