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Stock Market Intraday chat: Feb 6th - 10th

post #1 of 1100
Thread Starter 

We closed off last week with a bang as we finally got over that 1330 on the ES:

 

S&P futures

 

The economic calendar for the week looks fairly quiet, not much other than Jobless claims on Thursday with a red star.

 

Monday Feb 6





Richard Fisher Speaks
12:15 PM ET

Treasury STRIPS
[Bullet
3:00 PM ET


Redbook
[Bullet
8:55 AM ET

Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:00 AM ET




Consumer Credit
[Report][Bullet
3:00 PM ET




John Williams Speaks
10:40 AM ET


Weekly Bill Settlement

52-Week Bill Settlement

Jobless Claims
[Report][Star]
8:30 AM ET


Wholesale Trade
[Report][Bullet
10:00 AM ET







Money Supply
[Bullet
4:30 PM ET



Ben Bernanke Speaks
12:30 PM ET

Sandra Pianalto Speaks
12:50 PM ET

Treasury Budget
[Report][djStar]
2:00 PM ET

 

 

The Nasdaq, powered by AAPL has made some great moves, but check out that RSI divergence:

(chart courtesy of Dan Eric, Elliott wave goodies)

 

ndx100.png

post #2 of 1100

I am finally enjoying the ride. 1500, here we come. banana.gif

post #3 of 1100

Lol, I think I said 1375 when everyone was talking about the Santa Rally. That was a complete guess but I guess it's coming. Perhaps the jobless claims will have also been manipulated and we could rally 1% on them.

post #4 of 1100
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Venom08 View Post

Lol, I think I said 1375 when everyone was talking about the Santa Rally. That was a complete guess but I guess it's coming. Perhaps the jobless claims will have also been manipulated and we could rally 1% on them.



Why would anybody want to manipulate the jobs numbers?

 

Oh wait.. never mind.

 

laughing.gif

 

Obamavsmarket.jpg

 

 

post #5 of 1100

im hoping we dont gap up on monday so i can start looking for long positions.

 

I hate to go long here but the market keeps going up.

 

 

post #6 of 1100

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/04/greece-idUSL5E8D40BB20120204

 

Big gap up or down on Monday?  Apparently if there's no deal by Sunday funds won't start flowing in time to pay back the march payment.  I'm sure they'll come up w/ some 11th hour deal so I'm thinking gap up.  On top of that we have Superbowl hangover on Monday, no economic events.  Possible gap up and grind up on light volume?  ....maybe I shouldn't have held those shorts through the weekend lol

post #7 of 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by yzarc View Post

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/04/greece-idUSL5E8D40BB20120204

 

Big gap up or down on Monday?  Apparently if there's no deal by Sunday funds won't start flowing in time to pay back the march payment.  I'm sure they'll come up w/ some 11th hour deal so I'm thinking gap up.  On top of that we have Superbowl hangover on Monday, no economic events.  Possible gap up and grind up on light volume?  ....maybe I shouldn't have held those shorts through the weekend lol



What deal? The Greese thing?

post #8 of 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nate01 View Post

im hoping we dont gap up on monday so i can start looking for long positions.

 

I hate to go long here but the market keeps going up.

 

 



Hi Nate!

 

Before you start buying/selling stuff please send me threw PM your email.

I'll send you a small document (its easy reading, dont worry), to help you understand some basics.

It was prepared by one of the mods of this site and is quite good. I just made the compilation of info.

 

Nate, here nobody likes you lose money. This is a community.

 

Thanks!

post #9 of 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post



Why would anybody want to manipulate the jobs numbers?

 

Oh wait.. never mind.

 

laughing.gif

 

Obamavsmarket.jpg

 

 


thats what i was thinking... they better flash crash this quick before we rally through election time and no one remembers  what hit them

 

post #10 of 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by rg7803 View Post



Hi Nate!

 

Before you start buying/selling stuff please send me threw PM your email.

I'll send you a small document (its easy reading, dont worry), to help you understand some basics.

It was prepared by one of the mods of this site and is quite good. I just made the compilation of info.

 

Nate, here nobody likes you lose money. This is a community.

 

Thanks!


wtf?

 

 

 

post #11 of 1100

he just wants to help you out clearly. which is a nice thing to do.
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nate01 View Post


wtf?

 

 

 



 

post #12 of 1100
Thread Starter 

Via dshort.com

 

The $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com that can be used to forecast conservative entry and exit points for the stock market.

 

The OEXA is used to find the "sweet spot" time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money. See Is This the Best Stock Market Indicator Ever? for a discussion of this technical tool.

 

The chart below is current through the February 3rd close.

 

.

 

 

After a major S&P correction, the conditions for safe re-entry into the market are when:

   

a) $OEXA200R rises above 65%.

And two of the following three also occur:

   

b) RSI rises over 50.
   c) MACD cross (black line rises above red line).
   d) Slow STO (black line) rises over 50.

Interpretation:

OEXA200R remained well above 65% all week and closed at 84%.

Of the three secondary indicators:

  • RSI is above 50 and positive.
  • MACD has crossed and is positive.
  • Slow STO is above 50 and is positive.

Conclusion:

The market is very tradable. But this could be the last gasp before a serious correction beginning mid to late 2012. Look for a possible drop to coincide with any number of likely events: Greece, Iran, another U.S. credit down grade - take your pick.

In the meantime, OEXA200R at 84% gives investors plenty of slack. Enjoy it while it lasts!

post #13 of 1100

Help request.  Can somebody please tell me how to save charts to your PC on Thinkorswim.  I've looked all over and can't seem to figure it out.  Thank you.

 

Nevermind i got it.

post #14 of 1100

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliot_wave

 

"Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1."

 

god damnit.

post #15 of 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKaplan View Post

Help request.  Can somebody please tell me how to save charts to your PC on Thinkorswim.  I've looked all over and can't seem to figure it out.  Thank you.

 

Nevermind i got it.



how did u do it?

post #16 of 1100

alternatively:  

 

Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).

 

so which is it?  

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by tones View Post

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliot_wave

 

"Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1."

 

god damnit.



 

post #17 of 1100
Quote:
Originally Posted by tones View Post



how did u do it?



Click the little print icon and choose save image.

post #18 of 1100

Ready for a new week. Euro down, futures down.....Should be interesting.

 

Watching the Euro daily flag.

(chart in trading journal)

 

I wanted to mention that I just finished compiling my weekly trading log.

Lots of charts in there for anyone that's interested.

 

(just click the signature below)wink.gif

post #19 of 1100

Nice video, from Oscar Carboni. A bit long, but worth the time!

 

post #20 of 1100
Apparently everytime the Giants win, the markets rally. If the Patriots had won we would have corrected. Ugh, now we get even more pointless upward trends.
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