Stock Market Daily Chat: Jan 30th - Feb 3rd - Page 22

 

 

Lots of resistance here around 135 area for SPY.

 

look back at these dates:

 

2/22/11

6/1/11

7/26/11 ( last major drop )

 

Not saying it'll happen again, but this is a tough area to crack....

 

cracked 135 on:

4/26/11

7/7/11

 

Interesting area...maybe why I kept saying 135 then pullback?...

 

 

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/185273/es-charts-and-analysis#post_2824756

Well I think we are (still) headed North.

 

 

 

 

ok lets pretend im not a regular here for a second.... (uses neuralizer on everyone *flash*)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hello everyone. I am new to trading and the stock market. I have read up on technical analysis and fundamental analysis. I have recently found a stock that I think is weak fundamentally, but technically I am not so sure. As you can see in the chart below it's been rangebound between 76 and 157. I would like to short it. Is this a good entry?

 

 

 

 

 

btw this a chart of the spy

Edited by charulz - 2/1/12 at 6:33pm

Although the short term price action looks good, I find it hard to ignore the levels we have yet to successfully test and make support at. When I measure the move from the highs in May  to the lows in October, I can see that we broke into support around 1300. Like in Big bears chart, the massive resistance line has began to hold the markets back from pushing higher. In the immediate term we have held support, but have also yet to really break out. That puts the markets in a vulnerable place because of the great run so far in January. We still had yet to have a major pullback, and sitting at the 78.6% fib and that top resistance trendline, may pull the the pants off some of these longs. Not being too bearish, we just are in need of some healthy selling, and that 61.8 level around 1260 could be used to set up some base for a much larger move higher. Just something to think about before getting over-positioned long. We very well could see some overextended buying here before the pullback. I think everyone needs to be aware of the current levels, and not get caught in a big shake the market may have coming. 

 

Point well made Charulz. I guess I would not be looking to short that as it looks unless it was to break down from closer to the 138 area on that peak if it turned. 

 

The thing is on that time frame that one is a no brainer. It is just too long a time frame for the trades I am comfortable. If only the charts looked like that week to week 

 

 

There is no way to predict what will happen with the markets in the near future. Our arguments are invalid. I think it would be best if we just let the retail traders go long and for us to just sit on the sidelines, waiting for a correction. The markets have gone up too long in a very small channel and it's worrying me because it doesn't make sense. Almost all of Europe got downgraded and we rallied. I'm tired. I'll sell my long positions and quit adding to my short positions by Friday.

 

My friends I hope some of you had played GMCR earnings for the long side...!

i went so short.. i fell asleep during the close lol... wore myself out.

sorry to hear that mjoke; i wish you better luck next time

For all the numerologists out there, 4 is the magic number.

In this chart you can see that price had built 4 bases with 4 days in between the pop day.

Then a minor base correction and 4 more days then pop.

 

How many times does a coincidence happen before it is no longer a coincidence?

Would not surprise me to see more of the same and if that is the case then a new base will start to stomp itself out.

 

Lot of talk about low volume and no conviction in this move up.

But it makes sense to me, if I was "big money", how would I crush as many shorts as I could while bringing the market up?

Would I hit the buy button hard and crush just a handful of short stops?

No, I think I would play "here kitty kitty, here kitty kitty" and move price in a slow grinding, low volume way, just like we have all seen for the past 2 years.

 

It seems to me that for some time now, high volume has equated to high volatility, resulting in a down day. I've noticed very few high volume and positive market days, more like slightly above average at best. At least that seems to be the pattern.

 

Anyone else been looking at this weekly round bottom cup and handle?

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/179687/countdown-to-blastoff#post_2824304

 

 

 

 

Wow I've been guessing good on earnings. Bullish on GMCR and bearish on CMG and AMZN purely based on valuation and where the stock price is overbought/oversold.

 

Only played CMG though and it was accidental. I tried to dump it at the morning lows and the order never filled, but it worked out. The deep itm put spread 395/370 feb should be worth over $20, paid around $16 yesterday for it

That CMG is a freight train!

 

But nothing goes up forever, the day will come.. oh yes, the day will come.

 

     Quote:

I think you can see the same effect on the weekly chart too.

I think the weekly represents what I define as "mid-term" trend, opposed to short term(intra-day).

 

I agree with Charles, if I am correct in the spirit of his point, in that buying or selling in the middle of the channel may not be the best move.

It would seem to me to be safer selling above the yellow line.

 

Thought the Euro was a goner below 1.3050, if it got below 1.30 forget about it, but it snaped back. Fairly stable area above 1.3150 IMO.

Dollar getting hammered back down lifting the overnight indexs.

Continuation flag forming on the Euro daily.

Bingo. Worth quoting this to repost it. I think I posted something along the lines of the below example recently, if not I've been thinking about it a lot in the last few months.

Let's say SPY averages 200 MM shares, regardless of the directional move. Right now, at least in general since the QE2 rally got underway in H2 2010, you're right, higher volume has typically been on down days and lighter on up days. This is a general guideline, not a hard rule. Let's say on average down days SPY pushes 225 MM shares, maybe the balance of seller-driven transactions (i.e. during down ticks, sold on the bid, etc.) is 125-100 in favor of sellers over buyers. I realize there are 225MM shares bought and sold, just roll with the example. Now on up days let's say there is 175 MM shares on average, and buyer-driven volume dominates 100-75. This is a gross oversimplification, just meant to make the point more accessible. What's missing between the two? Obviously... 50 MM seller-driven shares transacted, between an up day and a down day. IMO it is quite fair to suggest that buying demand is probably more consistent than selling demand over the long haul, due to a constant input of 401K and similar buyer transactions. So where does that 50MM of seller-driven volume come from? Hedge funds and big money? Perhaps what we are witnessing is a simple lack of sellers... it seems obvious this is what is enabling this slow, steady drift up the charts. Hopefully this oversimplified example helps put in perspective how a lack of sellers may be contributing to this move up. I do feel that some of the lighter volume is due to a general lack of participation across the board, which makes it easier for big money/algos to push price in either direction. The tight channel may just be a reflection of consistent market conditions year to date. I am done trying to anticipate when it breaks. We had one more wave of disbelievers knocked off their stools today... we need at least one more wave, but who knows, maybe we need ten more of these cycles where we base for a bit then pop. Who knows... trend - friend.

2-1 market update

 

What is your time frame? This dip buying fad is pretty impressive. Do you have a level you don't want to see price get above, other than 1330? Despite it seeming impractical, I would be surprised if price doesn't test ES 1345 some time next week, although I think your belief is UE/Friday will crush the bulls. Perhaps all of that inevitable disappointment is overly expected at this point.

looks like HSM is turning bullish... time for me to put my bear cap on.

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-01/global-strategists-abandoning-bearish-views-after-missing-rally.html

 

we missed the best rally since 1994!!

 

 

huh? thats not a bad thing.

 

come on you being the eurozone guy... lol