bigbear's market analysis thread - Page 2

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...so i guess we're never pulling back ever again... wow. this has been truly unbelievable. talk about an all out raid on the bears... don't think i've ever seen anything like this before. just as you think you've seen it all, this happens. holy crap. this has been nothing but a straight line up since about november. really don't know what to say...and well quite frankly, i don't even care anymore. so far i'm looking like a complete idiot calling for the turn back to begin around march. never expected we'd see a run like this. this is just mind blowing... 1400 spx? 13k dji? 3k naz? and we're not even 3 months into the year yet... wtf lol. this market can continue to rip faces off, but it will do so without me... really don't need the stress. already have a stressful life as it is. although, i was kinda looking forward to getting back in the saddle again and updating this thread and what not, but i guess that ain't happening... i really shoulda known better... it's an election year bigbear! an election year... damn. there is an extreme amount of manipulation going on. sigh, i digress... sorry to everyone here at the groups who i've disappointed by disappearing the past few months by not updating this page. unfortunately, i've just not been in the mood to look at much of any charts lately, or participate in the market action. i am patiently waiting. the correction will come, that i know, when is anyones guess... it does seem like this could run on for a few more weeks if not months. who knows and who cares anymore... sigh. :-/

r.i.p. buddy.

dang.... i was planning on updating this thread this morning but i see tos pushed through a new update overnight and it's completely crapped out the charts. can't load nothin' just great i tell you... 

i'm going back to hibernation. 

happy weekend to all of you...  hope y'all had a chance to get rrrrrrr'd (rested, relaxed, refreshed, and ready to go for a new week!)!

it's been a pretty long while since i've been on the site and posted any charts/analysis at hsm. i've been on a sabbatical due to personal reasons, but am hoping to get back into the action in a more regular fashion starting next month...

alright so i did some analysis over the weekend to see where we are at, here is what i am looking at after this past week in the markets..

first starting it off in the spx as i always like to...

here is the daily chart-

you can see we had a bit of a pullback last week however ended the week on friday with a bullish hammer. so it's looking like we could see a bit more of a bounce come next week. however we are in a rising wedge which is bearish. next week is the last week of the quarter so it wouldn't surprise me to see some good 'ole fashion window dressing to round out the week and the quarter...

here is the weekly chart-

as you can see we've had a real nice run up to new recovery highs here, but we ended the week on a bearish note. we got what looks to be a spinning top and a bearish harami. if we do manage to make a new low this week, meaning us going below this past weeks low which was about 1386 that could be the makings of a correction...which would be healthy for the markets.

and here is the monthly chart-

wow this one looks pretty bullish... and taken that this is on the big monthly (which trumps the daily and weeklies) this is huge. we busted through some big time resistance here on the monthly chart. breaking out of the huge symmetrical triangle we had, as well as the swing highs from last year. still making higher highs and higher lows. just a massive up leg... that said we do have an area of resistance right at about the 1400 area which we essentially closed at this past week. if we can close above this area and stay there wow, this looks like it has more upside in it... not too shabby if you're a bull. looking good.

switching gears here... let's head over to the djia... not something that i look at often but figured why not today...

here's the daily dow chart-

on the dow we are right at major support. we ended the the day on friday with a hammer. so it looks like we could see a nice bounce coming this week. however, keep in mind that we are in a rising wedge... which is, yes, bearish. so we may just get a little mini-me bounce for a few days before it will want to roll over again. 

on the dow weekly chart-

we have what looks to be a bearish thrusting pattern...

and on the dow monthly-

nice run... but there appears to be a problem here. we keep hitting our heads right at that major resistance line but cannot break through. uh oh.. this is looking a little ominous to me... if we go lower than say about the 12700ish area we're could be in a lot of trouble. be watching this very carefully to see what transpires...

now let's head over to the naz (nasdaq) and see what we have there...

here is the daily chart-

wow this dude just keeps on going... still making new highs. in a high base. all looks good and dandy. nice to see as the naz is one of the big leaders of the overall markets...

over on the weekly chart-

wow, just a massive massive run we've had going here. we did however end the week with a spinning top. can we keep heading higher and making new highs? absolutely, but man is thing this ever begging to pullback some. this has just gone full retard if you will... just ridiculous if you ask me.

and over to the monthly-

we had this big symmetrical triangle, and we just bust out. nothing but clear skies above us... just an amazing run this has been for techs... very bullish.

lastly let's take a look at the small caps, russell 2k.

here is the daily-

we're starting to roll over a bit here, but we did get a nice little pop on friday.. could see continuation of the bounce next week. small caps are ever so important for the markets as they are the leaders. if the rut can ever get it's legs underneath it and start cranking to the upside that will bode very well for the overall markets.

on the weekly rut-

looks like we're building this high base... would like to see this get over 836 to go bullish.

and on the monthly chart-

this actually looks pretty bullish... look at how we are just now poking our heads above that resistance line coming up. not too shabby. looks like the next level here will be at those historic highs from last year. very nice.

so in recap... everything looks more or less hunky dory, especially when you take a look at the naz and rut... this week is the last week of the q, so we may see window dressing to close out what has been an incredibly strong quarter... so strong, that i believe this will be the strongest q in what 14 years i believe? wow... just an amazing run this has been...

best of luck to everyone in the week ahead! 

yo what's up bob! long time... how ya be? good to hear from ya again. thanks for the post. it's good to be back...i think. 

sorry for just disappearing on you guys like that. i'll try not to let that happen again. just needed some time off from everything. personal reasons.. hope to be back into the swing of things again by next month. looking forward to it. i missed you guys. hope all is well. gl! :)

good evening everyone! hope y'all are getting a chance to relax out there...

i just thought i'd post some charts here as we enter the long holiday (easter) weekend... gonna go through the majors and see where we are at after today's action. let's take a look if we may.

first starting 'em off in the s&p's-

so we continued this week making new highs. all looks good and dandy right? yesterday it looked like we closed right at a major support line and would bounce, but uh oh look at what happend today...

zooming a bit closer you can clearly see we closed below a major support line today. we have a lower high and lower low with the rising 20 day acting as resistance. this is not a terribly good sign for the bullish case. it is showing weakness. and there could be follow through to the downside. let's be watching this closely to see if we do indeed see continuation to the downside in the coming days ahead.

taking a look at the weekly chart-

we have made a higher and a slightly higher low. it looks like it is building a high base, which would be more bullish than bearish. but we've got a couple of upper shadows, where the bulls are taking the market up and the bears are bringing it right back down. this is a little ominous to me. we'll see what comes out of it, but we do have a pretty large bearish harami reversal pattern to end this week.

and on the spx monthly chart-

now the month has just gotten underway so we have a long way's to go here, but at this very moment we have a bearish tweezer top, so if we don't go any higher than this for the month this could be setting up for a pretty sizable drop. be watching this very closely...

switching gears now over to the dow-

here is the daily chart. the dow is showing the most weakness of the major indicies. on wednesday we crossed down below the 20dma, and today we have a lower high and a lower low. we're basically stalling out at about the 13k level which is a pretty significant area of support. if we dip below that area, wow. it could be pretty damn bloody. we do have the rising 50dma coming up as support. but if we cannot push any higher in the coming days ahead, this could be a triple top trend reversal pattern. very bearish.

over to the weekly chart-

this one actually looks pretty bullish... we're building a high base here. would like to see this close above the high at about 13300 to remain bullish on the dow.

and over to the monthly chart-

we're just getting started with the month, but the issue that i have with this one is that we are finding some serious resistance which we are unable to break above. we have another tweezer top in the making and a bearish harami, and we're on the wrong side of the trend line. we really need to bust through this resistance line if we are going to remain bullish in the market.

now let's take a look at how tech is doing which could be the leader. here is the daily on the naz-

this one looks pretty bullish. you can see we busted through that resistance line today after breaking down through it yesterday.. not too shabby. if we can remain above this weeks lows at about the 3050ish area, that will bode well for the markets. so edge to the bulls here on the daily.

over to the weekly chart- 

well well well look at what we have here! after making higher highs and higher lows for what seemed like an eternity, for the first time in a long time we actually have a lower high and a lower low. that said, this could be in the process of building a base so we'll have to see how this one plays out. but this certainly could be problematic if we start breaking down. techs have been the leaders for so long, could they start to lead the overall markets lower? we'll have to wait and see. keep an eye on this.

and over to the monthly-

month is just getting started, but here is the problem that i see, if we do not push to new highs we'll have another tweezer top. ouch. that is no good. if we're going to remain bullish in the markets we really are going to need to see techs continue leading, and push above the highs and fast. looks ominous so be watching is very closely.

lastly over to the small caps russell 2k...

daily chart here-

wow, the rut broke through a major trend line as well as breaking below the 50dma. we had a lower high and a lower low today. hmm.... can you say bearish?

over to the weekly chart-

very choppy action the last couple of weeks, would like to see it get above the 830ish area to really feel good about this thing... if not, look out below. we'll have an area of support coming in at about the 800 area. if that doesn't hold, wow.

and finally the monthly chart-

as of today we have a lower high, higher low, but we are on the wrong side of the trend line. and as of this moment we have a bearish harami. really needs to bust through this resistance line and fast, or the markets could be in a heap of trouble in the coming months ahead...

so in recap to all of this... we are starting to see some cracks in the ice out there. we're at some pretty critical resistance areas on some of these charts with a couple of tweezer tops. if we fail to break through, look out we could be in for some significant downside... gl to all and happy easter to everyone!

on and btw just wanted to quickly share the good 'ole group screener courtesy of finviz....

a little late but thanks bob! hope you and yours had an awesome easter as well. it's great to be back after that sabbatical. i missed you guys. :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigbear83 

 

so we continued this week making new highs. all looks good and dandy right? yesterday it looked like we closed right at a major support line and would bounce, but uh oh look at what happend today...

 

 

zooming a bit closer you can clearly see we closed below a major support line today. we have a lower high and lower low with the rising 20 day acting as resistance. this is not a terribly good sign for the bullish case. it is showing weakness. and there could be follow through to the downside. let's be watching this closely to see if we do indeed see continuation to the downside in the coming days ahead.

 

just wanted to quickly post this update from my weekend wrap... so who says t/a is worthless crap? (not that anyone on here did but i remember we used to have a couple of bozos back in the days who said it was nothing but nonsense) what i'd say about that major support line being busted to the downside on thurs? this was way before any news came out! was not not huge or what? holy smokes... 

so, while cnbc and all the other major networks say it was the disappointing jobs report that sent us lower, i say nonsense to that! it was the break of that major support line on thursday! all i had to do was look at what the chart was telling me to get an idea what was coming... as the good saying goes: trade what you see, not what you think! thing of beauty i tell ya. 

lol bob. you should watch this youtube clip. maybe you've seen it before? it's a bit old but i always lmfao whenever i watch it. classic. 

trading what you think

good evening all. got a couple of charts for y'all tonight... going to be using some fibs to show where we are at on this bounce off the lows...

first looking at the spx daily-

so we've broken down out of the rising wedge and have bounced back a bit... not looking too bad right? well not quite. looks to me like we could be going into a bear flag here... putting a fib retracement from the recent highs to lows, puts us right at about the 50% area. not too shabby. however, if we are to remain bullish here i would really like to see this thing get past the 38.2% which would put us at about roughly the 1400 area... that would be huge for the bullish case. otherwise, i think this is looking bearish. let's be watching this very closely.

now let's head over to the djia and see how things are looking on there...

on the djia daily-

we've broken down out of the rising wedge, find support at the 12700 area, and have bounced. putting a fib here on the dow you can see we've cleared the 38.2% area as well as the 20sma with today's huge move... not bad. this one is looking pretty strong compared to the other majors... not that it means anything but we are over that psychological 13k area as well. one thing that i will mention is i don't like to see the dow leading the charge of the major indexes like it is with this bounce off the lows... in a solidly bullish market you'd like to see the russell 2k and nasdaq leading the way. that hasn't been the case here. let's see how those two fared..

next up the naz...

nasdaq daily here-

so putting a fib up on the naz from the recent high to low shows we aren't even up at the 50% area! that is no good... this shows relative weakness... absolutely need to see techs turn around here and lead it to get excited to the bullish side imho. let's be watching to see how this one plays out.

and last but not least the russ 2k...

hmm... looks like the same thing as we saw over on the naz... failing to make it up to the 50% fib retracement. don't like to see that. both the nasdaq and the russell 2000 which act as leading indicators are both looking weak on this bounce compared to the spx, and the dow... that really is nothing to get overly excited about on the bullish side imho. let's see what tomm brings us, but these last two charts are a little suspect to me with this bounce we're having. ominous if you will...

will be interesting to see what happens from here... glta! 

good tuesday evening to all... just wanted to quickly share a couple of charts with y'all tonight while i have this opportunity.

starting it off with the spx daily-

so we continue in this faily extended down leg. yesterday we found some nice support at around that 1340 area. i really thought if there was ever a time for a bounce it would come today, and it looked like that might happen early on, but man we just came crashing down in the final hour to close near the lod. as a result we busted and closed below not one but two support lines that i had drawn here! wow... this is not looking too promising even for a bounce! however, i still believe we will see one (albeit a small one) but man, this is not looking too pretty. an oversold bounce is to be expected, but it's anyones guess when that will happen. for now we continue moving lower....

same picture on the djia... this has been a straight line down since we hit those 4 year highs just 2 weeks ago. boy does that seem like a long time ago. bloody.

and as well on the small caps russells exhibiting similar weakness. still heading lower here... don't like to see this as the rut is one that i look at as a leading indicator...

and lastly the naz... now here are the two charts that i was watching very closely this weekend. the weekly and the monthly.

first the weekly- last week we held that major trendline support at 2900 and bounced, and we ended the week with a doji. it really looked promising to me for a small bounce this week. and although the week ain't finished yet, look at where we have closed as of today...... we are below that support line! ouch... that is no good gang.

and if that wasn't bad enough, take a look at the monthly (yes, i know we still have a couple of weeks left to the month so this can certainly change), this is the one that looked most ominous to me... we had a tweezer top last month, and this month we have a lower high lower low, and we've cracked major support! this is looking extremely bearish.

and a quick look at the groups for the week, financials and basic materials down at the bottom of the pack... ugly...

the bears are clearly in charge here for now. the 'ole adage of sell in may and go away sure looks to be in full force once again this year. rock on bear. 

so it's been nearly a full month since my last update... figured it was about time i put up some charts on here.. will just cover the dailies for the 4 majors...

starting it off with the spx daily here as i usually like to... wow what a day today! as you can see with today's huge move up, we busted out of this falling wedge pattern to the upside that we've been in... as well as a huge resistance line that goes back to late 2011, and the big red 200sma all in one day... wow. however we did stop short of the 20sma. will be really interesting to see what happens with this tomm. who knows what's in store when you have the bernanke speaking in the morning... stay tuned for that!  however, if we're just looking purely at the technicals here, this is certainly a bullish move.

over on the djia- similar picture as on the spx, we have falling wedge pattern and a confirmed breakout with today's huge rally... bullish.

over to the nasdaq- this one is looking a lot healthier and stronger than the other 3 indexes... we had already broken back above the big red 200sma from yesterday. and again a confirmed breakout today here on the naz... not too shabby.

and lastly, and most importantly the small caps russell 2k... big falling wedge here, and wow, we just barely poked above resistance, and smacked our heads right on that falling 20sma...

and just taking a quick peak at the groups screener here... financials leading the way which is supporting the bullishness in the markets... not bad.

so, in wrap.... it's certainly been a nice little bounce here off our lows, and we have confirmed breakouts on all the majors, but the one other thing that i'm looking at and a little concerned about is the volume... we're not really seeing much of it on these up days... volume is a bit suspect here at best imho... we shall see what the next couple of days/weeks has in store for us... should be interesting. glta.

edit

good evening all... hope y'all are getting a chance to relax out there with what has been an extremely hot start to the summer season across the country... 

just wanted to post a couple of charts here... gonna go through these very quick as i only have a limited time tonight.

first starting 'em off in the s&p's as i usually do-

now i'm a little early with this but just assuming that we continue this bounce higher into next week (which i think we do), it will put us into this rising wedge formation (which is more bearish than bullish)...so be watching this closely going into next week to see how this plays out.. 

over to the djia-

similar picture... need to see if an up leg does in fact commence from here putting us in this rising wedge.

over to the naz-

and the same thing here...rising wedge.

and over to the daily rut-

big drop yesterday, however we had a nice little bounce today. this one looks a bit promising for a continuation move to the upside...

now let's take a look at the weekly charts... starting it off with the rut-

what i find interesting about this one is that we tried to break out above this resistance line this week but just couldn't hold it at week's end... this one could be problematic... be watching this.

over to the naz weekly-

looks like we have ourselves with what appears to be a shooting star reversal pattern. same thing as on the rut, we tried to break above that critical resistance line this week, but at weeks end closed just below it... no good.

on the spx weekly-

looks like a bearish harami to end the week here...

and on the djia weekly-

we're stalling out at the 20-week moving average... this one looks like it could continue heading lower from here..

now for the monthly charts...

djia monthly-

we have a lower high, lower low but it does look like we want to go bullish...

spx monthly-

i'm looking at that 1300 area for support. that will be a huge area that we will want to hold, or else...

naz monthly-

lower high lower low, we're above the rising 20-month moving average... so not looking too shabby here.

and lastly

rut monthly-

we're below the 20-month moving average here, the big area of support that i'll be looking for is at about the 748ish area... a break below that and this could get quite bloody...

and last but not least the group screener courtesy of finviz...

i'll try to have some more thoughts posted later this weekend. i hope everyone has a great weekend! 

enjoy the summer!