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Gold Futures - short term prognosis?

post #1 of 25
12/29/11 at 1:43pm
Thread Starter 
Gold has been pummeled, took out the 1535 low, but it would not surprise me to see it rip right back up straight into the 1600s next week, as all sorts of technicians mis-position themselves on the lower low.

Silver has been sending the signals today for metals, but now gold is storming back, having broken the balance area, false bear flag in 1530s. Now it is well over the 200 MA on 5 min depicted below. Looks like 1550 should be a foothold over which gold will be most likely to continue gains, with another big battle area in the 1560 neighborhood.

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post #2 of 25
12/29/11 at 2:04pm

I have to say that I think that in the next few weeks we could see gold bounce once the people who took profits for EOY stuff want back in. I have to wonder how much of the drop was also gold sold to get cash for the short term given all the issue the eurozone has been having. It is one of the easier ways for them to get cash given the way the bond sales have been going.

 

Alot are calling for the bull market in gold and silver is over but the fundamentals of the trade have not changed. Just have wait and see

 

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post #3 of 25
12/29/11 at 2:14pm
Thread Starter 
I'm not at all arguing against a continued downtrend, especially with the dollar positioned bullishly and Euro debt concerns as we roll over into 2012. Gold has been vertical down on the daily since equities topped out in late Oct. However, a huge gold bear market rally would exact a lot of pain, and therefore I favor it happening. Anything up to 1650-1695 before Jan 20th or so would not shock me and could allow the daily time frame downtrend to remain intact.
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post #4 of 25
12/29/11 at 2:18pm

Anybody here calling for a blow off to 2500? biggrin.gif

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post #5 of 25
12/29/11 at 2:27pm
Thread Starter 
No... I am actually leaning to a blowoff final leg up in this long-term bullish cycle of mid 4,000s in a few years. Have you looked at how well the EW analysis has worked on gold since the big bull run started over ten years ago? It's quite amazing really. You know I am not a big EW guy but I believe it has worked too well with gold to ignore its suggestion that 4000s is the destination.
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post #6 of 25
12/29/11 at 2:40pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post

Anybody here calling for a blow off to 2500? biggrin.gif



I have heard that, don't know how I feel though.


Edited by apples4oranges - 12/29/11 at 5:36pm
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post #7 of 25
12/29/11 at 3:09pm

If you looks at what the inflation adjusted price of gold should be something in the range of $2500 is what it should be. 

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post #8 of 25
12/29/11 at 9:48pm

Still in a bull market for no less than 3 years......still looking for the 3300 range as target....

.

has been so much 'FIAT GUMBO'

 

both here and across the pond these past few months....makes it a lil hard to keep focused on the prize.....

 

Could see another short term rise to the mid - high 16's here shorter term.....

 

Turn deaf ears to those who say such silly things as '1560' etc is as low as it will go......they know nada about precious metals.......I have been buying under 1650 and will continue to do so when able.......

 

Sh&t....it may hit 1300 or so before it heads north and the top comes in...................................................GLTA!!!

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post #9 of 25
12/29/11 at 10:43pm
Thread Starter 
Great metals take as always Cactus. Glad to see you are also torn between the next targets being much higher or lower. Such a dynamic market, today it looked like it almost wanted to fall apart and sprint right down to 1500, it had that edginess. I should have known once the 1530/lower balance area exteme was holding that I should just sit tight with my Jan calls, but I couldn't do it. I should have your number on speed dial so you can talk me out of sells like that. I'd love to see a blistering run to 1650 or higher, it just feels like this shakeout isn't done yet, big forces at work in the volume-inflated 'paper metals' market.
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post #10 of 25
12/30/11 at 7:16am
Quote:
Originally Posted by cactus View Post


Sh&t....it may hit 1300 or so before it heads north and the top comes in...................................................GLTA!!!


 

Quote:
Originally Posted by rando View Post

No... I am actually leaning to a blowoff final leg up in this long-term bullish cycle of mid 4,000s in a few years. Have you looked at how well the EW analysis has worked on gold since the big bull run started over ten years ago? It's quite amazing really. You know I am not a big EW guy but I believe it has worked too well with gold to ignore its suggestion that 4000s is the destination.


If you consider a couple of months out as short-term I tend to agree with both of you.

 

If you consider Gold being currently in a wave 4 down, this coming February 2012 we should see the end of this wave at somewhere between the 50% Fib retrace and the lower 200-day Bollinger Band of the recent September highs and the 2008 lows. That would bring us to the mid to low $1300's. Wave 5 should take us to what most would consider unthinkable highs in the months/years that follow.

 

IMO PM's follow psychological factors more closely than the technical or fundamentals, so you need to be very careful about major market events that are still yet to play out.

 

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post #11 of 25
12/30/11 at 9:39am

I'd like to see Kevin's input on this..

 

I'm still a long term gold bull, but the sudden drops sure are scary..and painful

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post #12 of 25
12/30/11 at 10:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by cactus View Post

Still in a bull market for no less than 3 years......still looking for the 3300 range as target....
.
has been so much 'FIAT GUMBO'

both here and across the pond these past few months....makes it a lil hard to keep focused on the prize.....

Could see another short term rise to the mid - high 16's here shorter term.....

Turn deaf ears to those who say such silly things as '1560' etc is as low as it will go......they know nada about precious metals.......I have been buying under 1650 and will continue to do so when able.......

Sh&t....it may hit 1300 or so before it heads north and the top comes in...................................................GLTA!!!

nice ...but for the first couple months 2012 as bearish as i am on pm'S mid - long i think 1550-1700 is the range...going into spring and summer i think we see more sell off...almost got to my 1500 target from back in march/april
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post #13 of 25
12/30/11 at 10:31am
Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post

Anybody here calling for a blow off to 2500? biggrin.gif

im in for about half that at some point 2012 biggrin.gif
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post #14 of 25
1/2/12 at 8:35pm
Thread Starter 
Anyone who appreciates or even more so adheres to EW and has traded or soon will trade gold should give this a good read, it's interesting at the bare minimum, seminal IMO

http://www.munknee.com/2011/12/alf-field-gold-going-to-4500ozt-in-next-wave-towards-parabolic-peak/
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post #15 of 25
1/8/12 at 11:35pm

I do feel that 1800+ coming pretty soon......................GLTA!!

 

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post #16 of 25
1/9/12 at 10:48pm

oooh cactus vs. kevin...

i'm biased so i hope cactus is right//

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post #17 of 25
1/10/12 at 12:49pm

Yellow doing pretty good today!!...........................................GLTA!!!

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post #18 of 25
1/10/12 at 1:52pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by rando View Post

a huge gold bear market rally would exact a lot of pain, and therefore I favor it happening. Anything up to 1650-1695 before Jan 20th or so would not shock me and could allow the daily time frame downtrend to remain intact.

From 12 days ago, watch to see if gold 1 makes a run at 1650, 2 how price reacts if it gets there and 3 if it clears 1650 does it want to test the daily time frame downtrend? All of this would in theory happen in the next 10-14 days to respect the declining trendline.
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post #19 of 25
1/13/12 at 6:40pm

Notice how in the two red circles price had trouble pushing up above $1650. After rejecting that price level, price moved to an overnight low of $1635 at 1 am Friday only to reverse and retest $1650 by 3 am on Friday, where it was rejected again. Price then made a lower low than the in the previous few days. This bears (no pun intended) repeating that it would not be unrealistic to expect price to once again retrace and retest $1650 for a third time. If it is rejected again, it the next low should be greater than Friday's low of $1625 and will act to solidify short term bearish sentiment.

 

One last thing to take note is of the potential head and shoulders pattern formation which is another bearish piece of evidence and suggests price moves lower.

 

1 hour chart.png

 

Longer term chart

 

Gold Jan 13.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

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post #20 of 25
1/18/12 at 9:29pm

Coming up to a nice little area to watch for action here.

 

121.gif

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