good evening everyone! hope y'all are getting a chance to relax out there...
i just thought i'd post some charts here as we enter the long holiday (easter) weekend... gonna go through the majors and see where we are at after today's action. let's take a look if we may.
first starting 'em off in the s&p's-
so we continued this week making new highs. all looks good and dandy right? yesterday it looked like we closed right at a major support line and would bounce, but uh oh look at what happend today...
zooming a bit closer you can clearly see we closed below a major support line today. we have a lower high and lower low with the rising 20 day acting as resistance. this is not a terribly good sign for the bullish case. it is showing weakness. and there could be follow through to the downside. let's be watching this closely to see if we do indeed see continuation to the downside in the coming days ahead.
taking a look at the weekly chart-
we have made a higher and a slightly higher low. it looks like it is building a high base, which would be more bullish than bearish. but we've got a couple of upper shadows, where the bulls are taking the market up and the bears are bringing it right back down. this is a little ominous to me. we'll see what comes out of it, but we do have a pretty large bearish harami reversal pattern to end this week.
and on the spx monthly chart-
now the month has just gotten underway so we have a long way's to go here, but at this very moment we have a bearish tweezer top, so if we don't go any higher than this for the month this could be setting up for a pretty sizable drop. be watching this very closely...
switching gears now over to the dow-
here is the daily chart. the dow is showing the most weakness of the major indicies. on wednesday we crossed down below the 20dma, and today we have a lower high and a lower low. we're basically stalling out at about the 13k level which is a pretty significant area of support. if we dip below that area, wow. it could be pretty damn bloody. we do have the rising 50dma coming up as support. but if we cannot push any higher in the coming days ahead, this could be a triple top trend reversal pattern. very bearish.
over to the weekly chart-
this one actually looks pretty bullish... we're building a high base here. would like to see this close above the high at about 13300 to remain bullish on the dow.
and over to the monthly chart-
we're just getting started with the month, but the issue that i have with this one is that we are finding some serious resistance which we are unable to break above. we have another tweezer top in the making and a bearish harami, and we're on the wrong side of the trend line. we really need to bust through this resistance line if we are going to remain bullish in the market.
now let's take a look at how tech is doing which could be the leader. here is the daily on the naz-
this one looks pretty bullish. you can see we busted through that resistance line today after breaking down through it yesterday.. not too shabby. if we can remain above this weeks lows at about the 3050ish area, that will bode well for the markets. so edge to the bulls here on the daily.
over to the weekly chart-
well well well look at what we have here! after making higher highs and higher lows for what seemed like an eternity, for the first time in a long time we actually have a lower high and a lower low. that said, this could be in the process of building a base so we'll have to see how this one plays out. but this certainly could be problematic if we start breaking down. techs have been the leaders for so long, could they start to lead the overall markets lower? we'll have to wait and see. keep an eye on this.
and over to the monthly-
month is just getting started, but here is the problem that i see, if we do not push to new highs we'll have another tweezer top. ouch. that is no good. if we're going to remain bullish in the markets we really are going to need to see techs continue leading, and push above the highs and fast. looks ominous so be watching is very closely.
lastly over to the small caps russell 2k...
daily chart here-
wow, the rut broke through a major trend line as well as breaking below the 50dma. we had a lower high and a lower low today. hmm.... can you say bearish?
over to the weekly chart-
very choppy action the last couple of weeks, would like to see it get above the 830ish area to really feel good about this thing... if not, look out below. we'll have an area of support coming in at about the 800 area. if that doesn't hold, wow.
and finally the monthly chart-
as of today we have a lower high, higher low, but we are on the wrong side of the trend line. and as of this moment we have a bearish harami. really needs to bust through this resistance line and fast, or the markets could be in a heap of trouble in the coming months ahead...
so in recap to all of this... we are starting to see some cracks in the ice out there. we're at some pretty critical resistance areas on some of these charts with a couple of tweezer tops. if we fail to break through, look out we could be in for some significant downside... gl to all and happy easter to everyone!
on and btw just wanted to quickly share the good 'ole group screener courtesy of finviz....