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CountDown to BlastOff - Page 5

post #81 of 139
3/26/12 at 4:24pm
Thread Starter 

Last Week:

polar_bear_fishing.jpg

This Week:

knut_berlin_polar_bear.jpg

 

Holy eek.gif Nice candle, right above resistance. 19 handles. Fresh highs.smile.gif

spx.gif

 

I'm still not sure about Big charts and that volume surge not represented the same as on this stock charts.com

From my log. As predicted subsequent move lower was strength in the background.

30ec90cb_600x471px-LL-c0965191_sc6modailyspx.png

 

And wow@ the Euro.

eurooanda.png

 

From my log, spotted this last night.

398eb93d_7d1f25b5_eurodaily.png

Another tid-bit from my log, flag target met:

39eb9c99_euroflag.png

 

And I thought the week would start slow, laughing.gif today deserves a booyah.gif

Bernanke speeches getting bumped up quite a bit on the Olsen scale.

bernakeolsen.png


Edited by Mark Vierra - 3/26/12 at 4:57pm
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post #82 of 139
3/26/12 at 11:35pm
Thread Starter 

Couple of charts I am looking at tonight.

 

From few days ago, DX weekly HS.

fee54e03_dxhsweekly.png

 

Broke neckline.

dxbrokehs].png

 

Battle over 79 may not be over yet, but I think 78 is not too long away.

dxweekly.png

 

DX Daily.

dxdaily.png

 

Risk switch has the distinct feel of "on".

I Think bonds got a lot more yet to give up.

tlttyx.png

 

From my log.

This cup target was met. A test of red line was possible.

0c4293c0_tltdaily.gif

 

TLT Today.

I think it filled as much of the gap as it's going to and can continue it's way down.

tlt.gif

 

On the S&P.

This round top target is almost there.

e7bbb8dc_spxcup.png

 

S&P today.

3modaily.png

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post #83 of 139
3/27/12 at 10:18pm
Thread Starter 

Chart for tonight, try my hand at some VSA.biggrin.gif

spxdailywychoff.png

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post #84 of 139
3/28/12 at 7:37pm
Thread Starter 

Just got home from work today.

 

Got several charts here today. I love how, after 2 down days, the bears start talking "blow off the top was Monday" and market is turning bearish.laughing.gif

I for one find this is complete nonsense.

First off a "blow of the top" is named that in particular to the large amount of volume.

Second, if bonds (TLT) go down/flat with the market, this is NOT bearish.

Third, it is real easy to tell if the market is bullish or bearish. "Volume is Truth". VSA (volume spread analysis) is my new best friend.wink.gif

Take a look at this chart and you will see how easy it is to identify bullish or bearish volume.

5day15minspy.png

 

Ok, I got that out of my system, so  "and now for something completely different".biggrin.gif

 

Did two charts last night, too sleepy to post.

First the Euro 4hr Flag. Still waiting to see anything happening there as well as the prior HS target.(see back in this thread or check my log)

euroflag.png

 

Additionally, this I did on copper. FCX was my biggest mistake.

I cannot wait to sell that POS at break even, and if I don't someone should come over here and give me a big kick.tongue.gif

So as a result I am closely watching copper.

Potential for Inverted HS and a Pennant to help it along.

See what happens. I should note that I have found similar HS on Gold and Crude as well.

copperhspennant.png

 

That's all I got for now, will wind down from work and take a look to see if I can find any more points of interest.thumbup.gif


Edited by Mark Vierra - 3/28/12 at 9:40pm
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post #85 of 139
4/1/12 at 6:21pm
Thread Starter 

Just finished my log.

Pretty good one this week, if I do say so.biggrin.gif

 

Got the week ending results for the S&P/DX comparison,

spxdx.png

 

as well as an update for the monthly up/down spreadsheet.

updown.png

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post #86 of 139
4/4/12 at 1:17am
Thread Starter 

Chart for tonight. Cup and handle. See if the pattern works out and if the math is close.

spx.png

 

S&P Near term channel projection.

spx2.png


Edited by Mark Vierra - 4/4/12 at 1:35am
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post #87 of 139
4/5/12 at 12:37am
Thread Starter 

Cup was a definite failure.laughing.gif

Looking for a test of yellow line 1389/90.

I think we bounce off that

3modailyspx.png

 

I doubt DX will get very far above 80.

Likely to settle down from the FED euphoria of no QE  and chances of a rate hike before 2014.

dxy.png

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post #88 of 139
4/5/12 at 11:24pm

good evening everyone! hope y'all are getting a chance to relax out there...

 

i just thought i'd post some charts here as we enter the long holiday (easter) weekend... gonna go through the majors and see where we are at after today's action. let's take a look if we may.

 

first starting 'em off in the s&p's-

 

so we continued this week making new highs. all looks good and dandy right? yesterday it looked like we closed right at a major support line and would bounce, but uh oh look at what happend today...

 

16htgn4.png

 

zooming a bit closer you can clearly see we closed below a major support line today. we have a lower high and lower low with the rising 20 day acting as resistance. this is not a terribly good sign for the bullish case. it is showing weakness. and there could be follow through to the downside. let's be watching this closely to see if we do indeed see continuation to the downside in the coming days ahead.

 

2jbtjzt.png

 

taking a look at the weekly chart-

 

we have made a higher and a slightly higher low. it looks like it is building a high base, which would be more bullish than bearish. but we've got a couple of upper shadows, where the bulls are taking the market up and the bears are bringing it right back down. this is a little ominous to me. we'll see what comes out of it, but we do have a pretty large bearish harami reversal pattern to end this week.

 

2a6ts77.png

 

and on the spx monthly chart-

 

now the month has just gotten underway so we have a long way's to go here, but at this very moment we have a bearish tweezer top, so if we don't go any higher than this for the month this could be setting up for a pretty sizable drop. be watching this very closely...

 

24pm7a9.png

 

switching gears now over to the dow-

 

here is the daily chart. the dow is showing the most weakness of the major indicies. on wednesday we crossed down below the 20dma, and today we have a lower high and a lower low. we're basically stalling out at about the 13k level which is a pretty significant area of support. if we dip below that area, wow. it could be pretty damn bloody. we do have the rising 50dma coming up as support. but if we cannot push any higher in the coming days ahead, this could be a triple top trend reversal pattern. very bearish.

 

j60s3a.png

 

over to the weekly chart-

 

this one actually looks pretty bullish... we're building a high base here. would like to see this close above the high at about 13300 to remain bullish on the dow.

 

5zk03t.png

 

and over to the monthly chart-

 

we're just getting started with the month, but the issue that i have with this one is that we are finding some serious resistance which we are unable to break above. we have another tweezer top in the making and a bearish harami, and we're on the wrong side of the trend line. we really need to bust through this resistance line if we are going to remain bullish in the market.

 

ir5ndd.png

 

now let's take a look at how tech is doing which could be the leader. here is the daily on the naz-

 

this one looks pretty bullish. you can see we busted through that resistance line today after breaking down through it yesterday.. not too shabby. if we can remain above this weeks lows at about the 3050ish area, that will bode well for the markets. so edge to the bulls here on the daily.

 

124zcs4.png

 

over to the weekly chart- 

 

well well well look at what we have here! after making higher highs and higher lows for what seemed like an eternity, for the first time in a long time we actually have a lower high and a lower low. that said, this could be in the process of building a base so we'll have to see how this one plays out. but this certainly could be problematic if we start breaking down. techs have been the leaders for so long, could they start to lead the overall markets lower? we'll have to wait and see. keep an eye on this.

 

wt6gki.png

 

and over to the monthly-

 

month is just getting started, but here is the problem that i see, if we do not push to new highs we'll have another tweezer top. ouch. that is no good. if we're going to remain bullish in the markets we really are going to need to see techs continue leading, and push above the highs and fast. looks ominous so be watching is very closely.

 

15g3s7t.png

 

lastly over to the small caps russell 2k...

 

daily chart here-

 

wow, the rut broke through a major trend line as well as breaking below the 50dma. we had a lower high and a lower low today. hmm.... can you say bearish?

 

25quij4.png

 

over to the weekly chart-

 

very choppy action the last couple of weeks, would like to see it get above the 830ish area to really feel good about this thing... if not, look out below. we'll have an area of support coming in at about the 800 area. if that doesn't hold, wow.

 

28iukix.png

 

and finally the monthly chart-

 

as of today we have a lower high, higher low, but we are on the wrong side of the trend line. and as of this moment we have a bearish harami. really needs to bust through this resistance line and fast, or the markets could be in a heap of trouble in the coming months ahead...

 

nrh34.png

 

so in recap to all of this... we are starting to see some cracks in the ice out there. we're at some pretty critical resistance areas on some of these charts with a couple of tweezer tops. if we fail to break through, look out we could be in for some significant downside... gl to all and happy easter to everyone!

 

easter61.gif

 

on and btw just wanted to quickly share the good 'ole group screener courtesy of finviz....

 

grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_t.png&rev=634692652273371475

grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_w.png&rev=634692652273371475

grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_m.png&rev=634692652273371475

grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_q.png&rev=634692652273371475

grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_h.png&rev=634692652273371475

grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_y.png&rev=634692652273371475

grp_image.ashx?bar_sector_ytd.png&rev=634692652273371475

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post #89 of 139
4/8/12 at 7:28pm
Thread Starter 

S&P comparison to DX has a more bearish flavor to it.

324064

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post #90 of 139
4/9/12 at 9:14pm
Thread Starter 

Bears Having a nice time lately.smile.gif

iStock_bear3486763XSmall.jpg

 

This is bad for the bulls.

spxdaily1.png

 

On the weekly perspective doesn't look so bad.

Bulls not ready to give back control above the 200ma.

As well as being in the upper end of the channel.

Lets see if that top yellow line provides good support.

4yrweeklyspx1.png

 

Looking at something of a pattern on the S&P/DX comparison.

spxdx.png

 

Decided to make a simple graph of this potential pattern, in order to illustrate.

3modailyspxgraph.png

 

Still too early to come to any objective conclusions.

Something I am paying attention to, in case it turns out to have any kind of reliable results.


Edited by Mark Vierra - 4/9/12 at 10:52pm
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post #91 of 139
4/9/12 at 11:35pm
Thread Starter 

Few more charts for tonight.

 

DX having a tough time trying to regain 80.

dxweekly.gif

 

Yikes TLT above 115.eek.gif Run and hide.

tlt.gif

 

Risk seems to be softening up a bit in overnight trading sessions.

 

Euro Inverted HS.

euro.png

 

S&P Round top measurements.

roundtopspxweekly.png

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post #92 of 139
4/9/12 at 11:46pm

Nice graph with the S&P/DX tallies biggrin.gif

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post #93 of 139
4/12/12 at 9:50pm
Thread Starter 

Thanks James,

 

I finally got around to getting help from a friend that knows spreadsheets.

So I just went through a crash course, he sure knows his stuff, I learned a lot.

 

Once again, with a suggestion of Rando in the main discussion thread, I discovered google docs.

Here is a link to current spx/dx comparison:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdEN6Z1MtdWZQLU5zN0FjUXl5TzJkanc

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamesw View Post

Nice graph with the S&P/DX tallies biggrin.gif



Also a screen-shot of the new appearance.

spxdx.png

 

I'll be hitting him up later to school me on graphing the tallies, without using an image editor to do it.laughing.gif

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post #94 of 139
4/13/12 at 12:35am
Thread Starter 

A few possible points of interest for this evening.

 

Nice tweezer bottom put in with a little "candle blending".wink.gif

spxdaily.png

 

Not completely giving up on this weekly round top, after surpassing down target.

086ef665_roundtopspxweekly.png

 

Currently 1390 area suggesting some consolidation on the weekly time line is a probability.

Hammer candle is a good sign of bottom. Although with 1 day left to close out the candle, anything could happen.

spxweekly.png

 

The herd, uh I mean market, will be looking at CPI tomorrow.

I have to laugh at myself for always paying so much attention and emphasis on news

when I'm the first to put on my side-blinders, earmuffs and trade based on TA. more than anything else.laughing.gif

I think it's only natural to want to be an "informed" person.

Call it a weakness, I confess I will always read the news anyway.

 

A possible projection for coming weeks would put May as the stronger month.

1yrweeklyspx1.png

 

From my log:

0df72dde_e5.png


Edited by Mark Vierra - 4/13/12 at 1:20am
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post #95 of 139
4/15/12 at 7:33pm
Thread Starter 

Just finished my log and I have the updated S&P/DX comparison data.

I had uploaded the spreadsheet to Google docs., but now I am having trouble uploading

the current version.

So no link, just the screen-shot.

spxdx.png

 

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post #96 of 139
4/16/12 at 4:05pm
Thread Starter 

I drew this weekly Round Top earlier.

Since price met/surpassed target 1370, I just had to re-draw.

d9dcd653_086ef665_roundtopspxweekly.png

 

Current range 1370-1412. Price already tested lower target. See which way it breaks.thumbup.gif

roundtop.png

 

Traders getting in early on blue chips? More like:

AAPL drags market up and down, all around like Achilles and Hector.

Although blue chips do look like they are lagging 3% behind S&P.

Also looking at these "tweezer/piercing" patterns. Among all the patterns tweezer/piercing IMO

are pretty good at pointing out reliable near term support.

djiaspx.png

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post #97 of 139
4/16/12 at 4:26pm

isnt the rounding top drop out target ~ 1340?

 

1420-1380=40

 

1380-40 = 1340

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post #98 of 139
4/16/12 at 4:31pm
Thread Starter 

I use a "price meeting target" percentage multiplier, based on a database of tested patterns, to get a more conservative target.

I've found the math works out a lot more reliable.IMO.

The math is there in the chart.

Also I re-drew the cup lip is currently in the 1370 area.
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by stevesteve121 View Post

isnt the rounding top drop out target ~ 1340?

 

1420-1380=40

 

1380-40 = 1340



 

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post #99 of 139
4/17/12 at 12:37am
Thread Starter 

Been working on refining my S&P/DX comparison spreadsheet.

Finding out how to chart the bull/bear tallies from all the data.

 

Link to Google docs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdHo3NlhRYXFsMm55bTdFUWNtc3J3Tnc

ss.png

 

What I have come up with is not so good for the bulls.

Yellow line plots an up/down with 0 as center.

Every time yellow line has approached 0, has been fore-shadowing of market weakness.

spxtallygraph.png

 

However I think there is still not near enough data collected for anything conclusive.

I remain cautious on drawing conclusions until I can observe this for much longer.

 

Another possible pattern, daily HS.

dailyhs.png


Edited by Mark Vierra - 4/17/12 at 2:12am
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post #100 of 139
4/17/12 at 9:22pm
Thread Starter 

Chart for tonight.

Daily looks like the bulls are back in town.

I think we close the week near 1400.

spx.gif

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