Mid-Week Chart Patterns and Analysis a'la Marco's.
With two trading days left in the month and week, my first submission is the SPX Weekly.
Looking at a Bull Pennant and an even better looking Descending Triangle.
Do they cancel each other out. Not exactly. A Pennant is considered longer term than
the smaller wedge.
Additionally and most important, the Descending Triangle technically is considered bearish pattern
but actually has a higher rate of upward breakouts than most other formations.
*Hey! That's new, I did not have to click the "I agree to terms...". Now that's progress, gotta love that.*
Next up and least favorite the Right Angled and Descending Broadening chart and measurements.
Next least favorite is the Daily SPX Symmetrical Triangle.
These patterns were meant more as a longer term formation,
I think performance suffers the shorter the time frame.
In any case price unbiased, dead even with vertex.
Flags and Pennants do not have the greatest rate of price meeting target.
However their strength as a continuation pattern makes up for it,
making this one not too bad in judging direction.
The most significant, fore-shadowing and by far the strongest of the chart patterns is the Flat Base. IMO.
My recent Flat Base prediction sprung a leak down to the prior Flat Base bulkhead.
I still have not given up on this as a tell. I contend that a stair step up and a half step down
will ultimately lead to another step upward as price is stomping a "base" or foothold.
I have two hourlies for the shorter term traders, the first is off of the aforementioned daily flag,
I have redrawn and recalculated measurements for the hourly.
Interesting double bottom bounce off the Inverted Head and Shoulders throw-back area.
And now for some real subjective prognostication, and my favorite kind of analysis.
I call this the "This is not a confirmed pattern yet" kinda of craziness.
However I'll leave just how crazy up to you.
From my Sunday weekly log.
I think the daily really looks to be forming a Round Bottom Cup.
How do I get such things in my head?
Volume. Best way to predict patterns and gage which patterns will perform the best is to look at the volume.
To illustrate this I went back in my preferred /ES futures to analise volume.
I found a nice textbook example not far back.
Notice the dome in volume corresponds to the cup formation.
This proposed Round Bottom may or may not turn out to be a Cup and Handle.
If the handle is going to form it will be closer to the cup lip.
The "bump" is something else I will be looking for in both price and volume.
it wouldn't be complete without the Adjusted S&P Normalized to the DXY chart.
I think the market correlating with the dollar is a good sign.
Market is looking at dollar strength as good and dollar weakness as bad.
Removing the dollar risk/actual value from the S&P has given me a unique view
of current sentiment.
Is this a period where the market will see good news as good, and bad as bad?
This chart is illustrating the reaction of these two lines coming closer together.
Ok that's it. I just want to close with a get out and vote in the monthly and weekly polls.
Plz. Oh and post your vote, trust me it will be fun to look back at our performance.