CountDown to BlastOff - Page 6

Been working on my, I will call, "Experimental Risk/Value to S&P Sentiment" chart.

As some here know I have been tracking the percentage difference between the S&P and DX.

I think the DX represents US dollar value sentiment, as well as a certain amount of risk sentiment.

And of course S&P represents the market value sentiment.

Still a lot more time to observe more data, but showing some promising results.

You can view the spreadsheet at Google Docs here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdHo3NlhRYXFsMm55bTdFUWNtc3J3Tnc

The blue line or column O, is based on the difference between M and N.

I've found it quite challenging trying to line up the spreadsheet chart with the bigcharts image.

I fussed with it enough that it is as good as it's gonna get.

I am seeing a potential pattern developing.

Again it will take time, but I see higher lows and lower highs scrunching together into a triangle.

It will be very interesting for me to see which way the bull vs bear tallies break.

Additionally take note of the height of the bull tallies (devcon 6) coincides with that March volume spike/tight spread.

Another look at that volume spike coincides with yellow pivot area.

Also red line support and purple resistance.

Friday S&P/DX comparison update.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdHo3NlhRYXFsMm55bTdFUWNtc3J3Tnc

Devcon 0. Bear tallies have over taken bull down to zero.

Not enough data to yet know what this means, but remains intriguing to me none the less.

Last few charts for tonight.

Some volume observations:

Still looking at this Daily Round Top.

Looks more Symmetrical than wedge'ish to me.

Clean break out of Triangle at 1380.

And I voted down in the weekly poll

Few charts and videos for the late nighters.

Currently about mid channel on the daily.

1410 would be a good spot for big pivot (purple line)

Late night charting.

Some measurements on these Round Tops are coming up with some good key levels.

Two firsts for me today.

One is the first buy limit order for UPRO (low 83's), since last year.

Second is the first time I put in an order from a smart-phone device (iphone).

Bears in control and I think I still got a chance to buy back the shares of UPRO I sold last March at 86$(paid 75$).(see log)

I would of got some already but negative margin keeps me cautious.

I think it's a good idea to have a good solid 4 to 6 weeks of

before buying. Gotta keep that powder dry and mine is getting wet.

Note: I have never in my life paid money for any Apple or Microsoft products.

My office got it for me and am a Linux OS computer user.

Looking at the UPRO daily chart volume and MACD suggest further downside IMO.

Declining down volume was bullish and now increasing down volume is bearish.

MACD might break lower trend line.

Weekly S&P, I think it's worth 1 lot of 20 shares to see if we bounce off yellow pivot.

If not and there is further downside, the plan is to wait a few more weeks to buy more.

Thanks Bears for the chance to work the game. See what happens tomorrow when I wake up will decide limit price.

Low 83's or lower or no deal.

Log Updated! Lots of charts and analysis for anyone interested.

An update to the SPX/DX comparison also in my log:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdHo3NlhRYXFsMm55bTdFUWNtc3J3Tnc

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

Getting better at aligning dates with superimposing graph from spreadsheet to chart image.(learned how to stretch image with my Gimp image editor)

I am noticing how S&P broke out of lower trend line, however not on the spreadsheet graph.

Spreadsheet graph is still in Symmetrical Triangle. Interesting to see what happens here.

Now off to vote in the weekly poll.

Recent demand from US Treasuries has me looking closely at Bond Yields.

Hard to figure why this safe haven asset is in high demand, with declining yields.

Looking back to the yield highs of 1980's

then 2009

2010

2011

Sept. 2011

now

full data in spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdFJIYTRveUE3MFJfcElXZXV6Sk9KeUE

To illustrate my further investigation and analysis, I worked up some more Bond Yield charts.

Part of my conclusions from these charts are that Bond Yields certainly can get lower.

I think near term lower and interest in safe haven Treasuries will decline.

Here is a comparison of S&P to Yield.

How does all this translate to the stock market?

I'm glad you asked.

I think Bulls are holding out for some of these yield levels.

I think the yellow line is about where S&P will react positive as Investors shy away from low yield Treasuries.

Purple line IMO is doubtful.

Some other considerations of prior pivots.

Increasing daily sell volume is an indication of bearishness.

Good news for the bulls.

As insanely low Yields and sky-rocketing Treasuries, we are still up 3.74% from Jan.

That means all this global turmoil and this is the result.

As a bull I find that as profound evidence that most of the global concerns were priced in last year.

Furthermore I think with Yields this low means a turnaround soon.

Here is today's updated experimental S&P/DX Risk/Dollar value sentiment graph.

Definite bearish sentiment still dragging lower.

Possible turn around point at yellow line.

This is a project of mine for those not following this thread.

Google doc spreadsheet will show the data comparison I am using

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

Also a lot more in my log.

Got home early and had some extra time to get some charts mid-week ready to compile later in my log.

I figured I may as well share them here early.

Might as well look at the shorter time frame charts, while I'm at it.

Volume leaves me to think more yet limited downside left to go,

I decided to put in an order for more UPRO at 72.23$, got triggered:

See if we get another 4-5% off S&P will buy more UPRO.

Essentially buying back these shares:

that I had originally bought for about 75$. See back in log for screen-shots.

In conclusion I think few more days, a week then.....

Few charts I've been working on tonight.

Good reading in the intra-day thread about volume, as I've been watching for signs of Stopping Volume.

I would like to see a nice big volume spike with little result/spread, just like the Euro(next charts), before buying more UPRO.

1300 would be a good spot, however that 1275/80 that Stevie_B has is not at all unlikely.

Some possible good news for the Bulls as I mentioned Bond Yields have reached critical key levels.

Also the daily Euro might have provided a clue.

Looking at a nice volume spike with little result, pretty good sign of Stopping Volume.

Although it is not yet present in the Aussie, I still think it's a good chance of the Bull market to resume soon.

A lot of liquidity has been created also from the drop in Gold, that surprised me.

Watch it all show up in FaceBook, bastards.

A little closer.

Log updated yesterday!

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/166656/marks-trading-log/40#post_2864898

I logged some charts yesterday and am now noticing a cleaner pennant.

This is from my log yesterday.

The flag pole here is much more defined.

Also some weekly trend lines.

Bears need to get down to red line levels to make this near term bear trend a longer term trend.

Here is a possible projection.

After a small "dead cat bounce",

I'm  thinking we maintain current downward trend at least to below 200 day SMA.

I'd like to see price pivot below a bit before spring-boarding higher.

Just finished my weekly log,

for all those interested. Lots of charts and analysis.

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/166656/marks-trading-log/40#post_2867070

Just looking at the Euro.

Not doing to bad for the massive leg down recently.

Little weak out the gate opposed to some sign of strength Fri.

Looking to go vote now.

See Ya There!!

Off work early today.

Got a smorgasbord of patterns. Morning-star getting plenty of confirmation.

Below this current 1308/10 pivot, I am favoring the Falling Wedge scenario.

Up 3%. Yields up more than Bonds decline, for a change. Usually the other way around.

Yields off the hook, Looks like 2 1/2% Yields were just too much to bear. (excuse pun)

Few charts for tonight.

I was looking back at some of my long term charts and wanted to compare current price action.

Note the neckline in purple.

Neck is current support.

Also a triangle in yellow. Looks fairly symmetrical.

Breakout is pretty rough at 1350. Could of gone a bit lower but math is really out there on these long term formations.

1350 gives me a good enough idea of the targets.

Few charts for tonight on the well known Inverted Head and Shoulders.

This is my original chart on the formation.

This is a look at the daily for comparison.

Structure is more pronounced on the hourly chart.

Also smaller HS off the bigger ones right shoulder.

I am reminded of the old slapstick routine:  "If you know that I know then you'll do the opposite but then you'll know that and likely reverse that ......."

I think a formation being "obvious" is over-thinking the pattern and that there is market psychology behind the formation, pattern or schematic.

I think some work better than others depending on market conditions and that

all such devises are subject to the world of probability and statistical mathematics. In this way,

I believe that these tools are just a way to remove some risk by gaining an edge.

Speaking to the obvious is if we bounce of 2.5% Treasury Bond Yield again.

Also I've been looking at the Dollar Gold correlation and appears to me gold may lead the way.

SPX vrs. GLD

US Dollar index DXY vrs. GLD.

I've been Eye balling this on the weekly and think it's time to draw some lines and measurements.

I've been seeing this Rising Wedge pattern and look into the daily for measurements.

Rising Wedge is a reversal pattern but in actuality is close to 50/50.

Right now I think pattern is favoring upside breakout.

Confirmation is above 1345.

I hope FED comments are Hawkish. No further need for QE.

I think US Dollar strength will be good for the bulls in the long run.

Near term market weakness from Dollar strength has been short lived.

Eventually the rebound will favor the bulls.IMO

Correlation has been based on actual value fluctuations along with the risk variable.

Weakness in the correlation means movement based on the other category.

My current experimental tally based graph, derived from percent difference between S&P and DXY.

The "parity" is what really helps this simple bull/bear graph.

My intention is to gage the sentiment bull/bear not based on an up/down in the stock market perspective.

Correct, each pattern favors one way or the other until it breaks. Odds are another thing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rock Sexton 

Quote:

Originally Posted by marcosx3x 

I've been seeing this Rising Wedge pattern and look into the daily for measurements.

Rising Wedge is a reversal pattern but in actuality is close to 50/50.

Right now I think pattern is favoring upside breakout.

Confirmation is above 1345.

 

The rising wedge's directional bias has more to do with the overlying trend.  In a bearish down trend, it's typically a continuation pattern.  Visa versa for a bullish one.

I'm gonna bump this as an example.

Note to self: **remember to add Inverted HS target to Rising Wedge chart.**

Here's some hourly charts for tonight.

Comparing recent Head and Shoulders to the Whycoff Scematic.

Rising Wedge update and possible projection.

Looking at some typical bullish volume with this recent rally.