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BLASTOFF!!

JK.

Here is a couple of charts I have been working on. Comments welcome.

I keep thinking a test of support at the 200ma. at 1260/65 is in order, especially today when I see price starting to fall below trend line support.

MACD sure looks ready to roll over.

But.

Then I can see an ascending triangle formation....

So I'm stumped.

Also looks like the Euro is putting in a piercing bottom.

Tomorrow should be interesting to see which way it breaks.

Here is something I've been watching and waiting for awhile and have logged it in my journal some time back.

DM+ has crossed above DM- on the weekly.

I still think some consolidation at some point is inevitable however I think the market is setting up for a very bullish move.

1300 is key pivot. 1305 will be quick to become support.

A break above 1300 will also be a breakout above trend resistance.

1350 soon.

I will look forward getting above 1350/65 and putting the whole "cyclical bear market" thesis to rest.

Like I said before "The Bulls like to stampede above the 200ma.".

I was looking at the monthly trend line resistance.

From 2007 high to 2011 high comes in around 1325.

As I posted prior in the weekly, major resistance shows up about 1300.

although they are close, I wonder which one takes precedence?

Here I tried to fudge the line a little higher in the weekly.

Also a crude cup and handle forming. Not exactly textbook.

That 1300 would make a nice consolidation period to form a handle.

If we do get over that major trend line resistance area, I expect the ADX to start heading north as momentum builds up the trend strength.

I have not seen any other posts on HSM about that head and shoulders or the action in the ADX/DMI on the weekly that I posted.

Maybe this is nothing new to the more experienced HSM'ers.

I was hoping for some kind of comment, even if from the bear majority here telling me I'm nut's.

*crickets chirping*

This head and shoulders on TLT caught my eye last night. Just now had time to work on it.

Also declining MACD.

On the TLT weekly looks like a short descending triangle.

MACD cross looks like it could roll over.

I've been noticing several indications as I have posted, that seem to me to be like a coiled spring is about to pop.

Gold had a healthy pull back recently. Slow de-coupling of Euro/market. Poor news and markets flat. Ok news and market soars. Slow grind up....etc.

If treasuries do what I am thinking then the risk on switch gets flipped. Money that flew into gold, cash dollars, treasuries...etc., as safe havens might start returning to risk (Euro/stocks) soon.

I'm gonna stick my neck out here and say maybe within 4-6 weeks.

I know the news/fundamentals and perceptions are poor. However as i put my side blinders on and just analyze the various charts that I am looking at, I'm seeing a resilient market that just might surprise people on the potential gains.

I worked out a possible exit strategy.

I call this, When does a bull become a bear?

I base that also on this:

Been watching this flat base staircase for awhile now.

Sometimes called the "stairway to heaven" formation.

Haven't been able to find the statistical odds on it, but has been known to be a build-up for a potentially huge bullish move.

Today was possibly our test of support that I've been expecting.

An update on today's TLT action.

Candle closed today as a gravestone doji after testing throwback area.

Odds favor continuation rather than reversal in bearish trend.

Also an update on daily flat base staircase is still in play(for now).

So far every forth day in 16(4x) and small pop to the upside.

Also marked by small channel (base), then bearish candle/volume and "pop".

How many times will this play out is anyones guess.

Feels like a technical sell off today, very orderly.

Was not expecting bonds to bounce back this much. Looks like no daily TLT HS, busted.

DX poking above wedge.

Looks like money is moving toward safer havens, ATM.

The positive note is market reaction to dollar strength is minimal, when compared to market reaction on dollar weakness.

I still think this thing wants to go up.

More on the weekly round bottom "cup and handle" formation developing.

From post earlier in this thread:

As I am somewhat green in Technical skill, please bear with me as I analyze this potential chart formation.

This cup doesn't exactly look textbook, but assuming hypothetically for purposes mainly for fun, this is what Ive come up with.

Blue channel is developing handle.

I've been unclear on the measurements, after reading from several website tutorials.

This guy seems pretty straight forward(easy),

so for the math I'm using from this site:

http://thepatternsite.com/cup.html

A=Breakout price or Buy Confirmation area

B=Bottom of the cup

C=Good place for a stop

(A-B)(Percentage meeting price target: 50%)+A

I get 1333-1220=113

113X50%=56.5

56.5+1333=1389.5

I've been having a lot of fun here on HSM reading everyones posts, for some time.

Love to hear comments from anyone or corrections from the more experienced than myself.

EDIT: Had to redraw original target was wrong, bad mistake.

Quote:

Originally Posted by marcosx3x 

More on the weekly round bottom "cup and handle" formation developing.

From post earlier in this thread:

 

As I am somewhat green in Technical skill, please bear with me as I analyze this potential chart formation.

This cup doesn't exactly look textbook, but assuming hypothetically for purposes mainly for fun, this is what Ive come up with.

Blue channel is developing handle.

I've been unclear on the measurements, after reading from several website tutorials.

This guy seems pretty straight forward(easy),

so for the math I'm using from this site:

http://thepatternsite.com/cup.html

 

A=Breakout price or Buy Confirmation area

B=Bottom of the cup

C=Good place for a stop

 

(A-B)(Percentage meeting price target: 50%)+A

I get 1333-1220=113

113X50%=56.5

56.5+1333=1389.5

 

I've been having a lot of fun here on HSM reading everyones posts, for some time.

Love to hear comments from anyone or corrections from the more experienced than myself.

                                                    

EDIT: Had to redraw original target was wrong, bad mistake.

still in play?

Mark's Bull / Bear recap.

Good for the Bulls:

Weekly Cup /handle broke buy confirmation zone, along with longer term resistance(very important level) As shown above.

What goes up usually stays up(for awhile) .

VIX is writing on the wall. Below pivot 20 has more downside potential,IMO. VIX looks like it's going to 15.

***Last time it got below 20 it stayed down there for 10 months. ***

Slightly above mid channel on the weekly.

ADX is sooo important. I've been really trying to stress trend strength indicator is your friend.

Good for the Bears:

Big money knew job numbers and already has drawn in all the suckers, rug is ready to pull.

Euro being propped up, barely, by US. market, for a change. Means it really wants to go down.

Otherwise Euro should of popped up good on stronger US economic news. These days who knows how much that affects US. Markets anyways.

Treasuries not giving the clear signal I was expecting. Thought the flight of big money to dollar/treasuries would be a good fore-shadowing tell. TLT Below 114-112 would have been a clearer sign.

Possible inverted cup, maybe it'll play out.

What goes up must come down?

Subjective:

Other Contemplations:

Whats harder as a trader

a)remaining emotionally detached?

b)liquidity?

c)timing?

I think volume in a rally is a myth. Maybe that'll be good for the VIX. If panic buying sets in, otherwise very orderly. All that basing steps and actually not that big of a move up. Not like big money wants extreme or drastic moves. I think the small low volume movements is better to draw in the shorts. Thats their job. That's what there expected to do. Mr market wants to take your $$$.JMO

I'm big on channels. I am a channel kind of guy. OK?, Formations,oscillators,patterns,Fib's,waves, moons, all be damned. Mid-long term channels rule. IMO.

I'm just stuck in my zone of thinking that I am inside this monthly/weekly mid to long term channel, that has upward bias. I think the trend in those time frames is a no brainer.

I saw a 4hr chart channel with price nearing top may have some short term pressure but I also think the weekly longer term channel trumps the 4hr/hourly channel. Still a lot more upside potential in the near term, could break out above hourly channel very slow and easy.

Would i chase it? ... no. never chase anything, let it come to you. if it don't hit your comfy zone, then you ain't out anything, is my motto.

That's all I got for now, looking forward to compiling all I've been working on for my log on Sunday.

Nice relaxing Sunday night, watching action on the DX and Euro.

Something caught my eye on the Euro weekly opens that caused my to don my tin foil hat.

The big majority of the first opening day (Sunday afternoon Ca. PST.), is opposite to the moves later in the week.

ie. If the first weekly opening candle is up the rest of the week is down and visa versa.

It did this 6 times in between the 2 exceptions marked A & B.

I have to see when exactly my Oanda chart switches to new daily candle.

See what happens at midnight for London open.

I have a feeling Euro might be a lot weaker if it wasn't for stronger US. news.

Lot's of pressure here below 1.3150. 1.30 should hold, still think the leg is up before 1.15.

Below 1.30 and "see-ya!" she's a goner.

Maybe give Mr. Market a chance to build another 4 day flat base.

Forex is about the only time I look at hourly charts, but

Euro current 4hr chart ATM., breaking below support.

A test of 1.3030 looks likely.

Not sure risk off will hinder this resilient market. Sure haven't seen it in Treasuries.

20yr. ETF TLT weekly chart has this round top formation. Could break either way.

closer look:

Over night indexes always seem so dumb and mechanical. Just blindly following currencies that move on news throughout the night.

All bets are off it seems when US. opens, unless it's up over 50+ Dow mini points.

More charts and stuff on my journal.

Getting passed my bed-time. Got this weekly chart of TLT 20yr US Treasuries ETF.

I wanted to compare difference in measurements between the round-top and this double top chart.

Actually pretty close.

Still expecting a drop as risk aversion relaxes.

Last Chart of the evening.

After flag on Euro daily chart broke out top of the flag at 1.32, I see new pattern forming.

Inverted HS., with higher target than 1.34 on the flag.

This tells me risk sentiment is relaxing somewhat, and a good sign for the bulls.IMO

just popped 1.3284 as I'm typing....

Last few charts for the evening.

Dx not making a very good attempt at 79. Although the attempt is holding overnight index's down.

Euro still steady above 1.3250.ATM

This is a look at the DX weekly. Last candle still has a few days to close, but if this is any indication for the closing candle, awfully bearish looking.

MACD cross, divergence very bearish as well.

This monthly chart I got my trusty Gimp ellipse tool, fussed and fiddled for awhile, and this is the best I could get to reflect the "dome" formation price has taken. Bears should love this one.

I have the day off tomorrow and a bit excited to observe the market live, as I've been watching this interesting pattern for a few weeks.

I've posted this crazy chart, a few times, that I've dubbed the "flat base numerological" daily chart.

A pattern that may or may not be repeating. Well actually it is repeating, only I just stumbled onto it after it based 4 times, almost exact MO. every cycle.

I've been anxious to see if the pattern continues.

Most have seen it so I won't bother the main discussion/intra-day thread. Just here so I can reference to it if it continues.

Instead of redoing the whole chart again, I've superimposed the last two candles relative to where their correct positions should be.(close enough)_

The pattern is this;

Every 5th trading day has been a pop, for 4 consecutive cycles, and 1 correction phase, for a total of 5 cycles.

For 5 consecutive cycles, every 5th day has popped.

After the correction phase we put in a doji, the next day popped.

I've reset the counting days after each pop.

Other things I've noted:

a) The first 3 cycles the doji was the first candle.

b) Several indecision doji's in last 3 days of the 4th cycle.

c) Correction phase was followed by the 3 doji's in 4th cycle.

d) Correction phase put the base same relative to prior base.

e) Correction phase was followed by a doji and pop the very next day.

f) The last is the upward slope the base has taken.

g) Latest proposed cycle starts with a doji, just like the very beginning.

What does all this mean? I have only subjective theory.

Does the sloping base mean anything? I have no clue.

What is for sure is that a "flat base" is a recognized pattern. It is a bullish continuation where a base has been stomped down as a line in the sand so to speak.

I have found little reference to the consecutive bases, other than some references calling it a "staircase" also known as "stairway to heaven".

I have only questions and no empirical answers.

Disclaimer: I am not saying I believe in this pattern. Nor am I saying to base any trades on it.

An update on the DX weekly.

The US. Dollar's new battlefield is the 78.50, currently above that level.

The Chart last night showing the long legged doji, with a bearish, not yet closed candle.

The importance is not really the indecision doji, rather the preceding "confirmation" candle.

The doji can be a strong reversal or continuation. The preceding candle body length will determine the strength.

Other thoughts and meanderings on the US. Dollar:

The appetite for risk can look to a number of things. I won't get into them right now.

The point I'm going to try and make has to do with the intrinsic or real value of stocks compared to the value of the US Dollar.

Stocks have perceived value, I only use the word intrinsic to make a point.

Traders are aware of flight to safe havens and think of that when they look at US Dollar value.

They also may look at the impact to import vs. exports.

What is often forgotten is that when the value of the US dollar changes, so does the intrinsic value of everything.

Within reason, I think, one could argue that PM's are not worth more, the dollar is worth less. Stocks have not gone up in value, the dollar has dropped.

I know that this is not entirely true, only trying to get across that when the dollar loses it's value makes everything more expensive.