The EUR/USD has busted the 1.29172 and is now on its way to 1.28578 - it's last area of support before the 1.2479 area
Intraday chat Dec 26-30 - Page 10
If we are to see a major drop this coming year then we need a catalyst. Lehman Bros were a good one for little turbulance in the past (understatement) the catalyst for the next will be the Euro.. just when ... crystal ball anyone... failed Euro bond auction?
There must be a limit on these bonds and the willingness by the banks to gobble them up... more like forced feeding!
When was the last time you made a trade that went bad? Seems like you have been calling the market correctly both ways pretty consistently.
Out puts, might jump in again if we bounce end of day into a put spread. Very well could bounce off of 1250
Right now the SPY 125 puts expiring this Friday is trading at 84 cents.
The SPY 130 put expiring January 21st is trading at $5.55.
You can make 15% just by buying that spread if SPY stays at 125 or below at EOD Friday.
Best part is, you get to keep the Jan put for another 3 weeks after Friday!
screw it got in a small rim call position.
Holding Jan $185 Calls from $3.40 only 10 contracts though they are down about $1,155 since I got them yesterday (Moral of the story don't sleep in when you are holding a position) I will hold until either AMZN breaks its $170 level or until I am back close to even.
So far today in:
LVS Jan 12 41 strike @ $2.46
RIM Jan 12 15 strike @ $0.84
SD 7.5 jan puts for a $75 loss in order to put more money into LVS as I believe it will head atleast up to $44 this week.
I'm usually early into every trade and early out.
A few months ago I bought weekly options and that crazy rally on ESFS killed my puts. They were deep itm and within 2 days completely worthless hah. Now I give myself at least 2 weeks time. I average down a lot. When I lose, it hurts a lot because I'm usually 100% invested in that position. Building it up slowly 10% of my cash at a time. If the market trends one way for a while then I usually lose everything. My strategy requires a trend change or flat market. I'm always contrarian. The past 2 years were tough with markets trending up incessantly with QE and dollar weakness.
Basically if I see an exaggerated move consecutively like 700 pts rally with no pullbacks, I'll fade it with deep itm puts. Keep averaging down if the market goes against me. If I run out of money, I sell at the money puts to benefit from theta and extra cash to now average down even more. If I get profit right off the bat, I take profit, over and over small profits add up.
What makes my strategy work almost every time is putting probability on your side. I'm usually not in a trade. I wait for big swings that I don't think can last, or at least can't continue. Using low risk put spreads gives you a huge advantage.
Edited by hermanpu - 12/28/11 at 1:19pm
Those daily stochs look like they are ready to start rolling over, but the 60min stoch says the opposite, its not time yet.