Intraday chat Dec 26-30 - Page 10

The EUR/USD has busted the 1.29172 and is now on its way to 1.28578 - it's last area of support before the 1.2479 area

Quote:

Originally Posted by Davecash77 

The EUR/USD has busted the 1.29172 and is now on its way to 1.28578 - it's last area of support before the 1.2479 area

If we are to see a major drop this coming year then we need a catalyst. Lehman Bros were a good one for little turbulance in the past (understatement) the catalyst for the next will be the Euro.. just when ...  crystal ball anyone... failed Euro bond auction?

There must be a limit on these bonds and the willingness by the banks to gobble them up... more like forced feeding!
 

If you think Lehman is a big catalyst, think of what would happen if a big country defaulted. Italy, Spain, USA

ES testing lows again... and break.

Quote:

Originally Posted by daande 

I think we will drift back up this is a good time for people to get long imo.

 

EDIT: I Just jumped back into the LVS calls I sold yesterday for 3.60 at $2.46 :)

FINALLY shorted LVS successfully. Sld PARL @ 5.40. Holding MU and I'm done for this week.

I f***** HATE ToS ever since they added that stupid home screen BS that I don't even use it takes 4-5 minutes to start on my laptop.

Whos buying what? What should I be watching?

Quote:

Originally Posted by daande 

I f***** HATE ToS ever since they added that stupid home screen BS that I don't even use it takes 4-5 minutes to start on my laptop.

So go to your settings and turn it off.

Silver is quite bloody today. If we see another big drop I am going to order some real silver from one of my friends in Thailand. Will buy more and start to sit on them.

When was the last time you made a trade that went bad? Seems like you have been calling the market correctly both ways pretty consistently.

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermanpu 

Out puts, might jump in again if we bounce end of day into a put spread. Very well could bounce off of 1250

 

Right now the SPY 125 puts expiring this Friday is trading at 84 cents.

 

The SPY 130 put expiring January 21st is trading at $5.55.

 

You can make 15% just by buying that spread if SPY stays at 125 or below at EOD Friday.

 

Best part is, you get to keep the Jan put for another 3 weeks after Friday!

Anyone thinking FAZ puts?

screw it got in a small rim call position.

Yesterday:

Holding Jan $185 Calls from $3.40 only 10 contracts though they are down about $1,155 since I got them yesterday (Moral of the story don't sleep in when you are holding a position)  I will hold until either AMZN breaks its $170 level or until I am back close to even.

So far today in:

LVS Jan 12 41 strike @ $2.46

RIM Jan 12 15 strike @ $0.84

Out:

SD 7.5 jan puts for a $75 loss in order to put more money into LVS as I believe it will head atleast up to $44 this week.

what was with that drop there in the markets? big volume

Out of LVS at $2.62 going to try to get back in at a cheaper price.

EDIT: That sucked I saw a move heading up so I rebought at $2.66

Da USD lookin to make another move here

I'm usually early into every trade and early out.

A few months ago I bought weekly options and that crazy rally on ESFS killed my puts. They were deep itm and within 2 days completely worthless hah. Now I give myself at least 2 weeks time. I average down a lot. When I lose, it hurts a lot because I'm usually 100% invested in that position. Building it up slowly 10% of my cash at a time. If the market trends one way for a while then I usually lose everything. My strategy requires a trend change or flat market. I'm always contrarian. The past 2 years were tough with markets trending up incessantly with QE and dollar weakness.

Basically if I see an exaggerated move consecutively like 700 pts rally with no pullbacks, I'll fade it with deep itm puts. Keep averaging down if the market goes against me. If I run out of money, I sell at the money puts to benefit from theta and extra cash to now average down even more. If I get profit right off the bat, I take profit, over and over small profits add up.

What makes my strategy work almost every time is putting probability on your side. I'm usually not in a trade. I wait for big swings that I don't think can last, or at least can't continue. Using low risk put spreads gives you a huge advantage. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by exodus 

When was the last time you made a trade that went bad? Seems like you have been calling the market correctly both ways pretty consistently.

 

 

Just bouncing around some fibs near the top trendline.  Low volume.....  Really thought the bulls would have busted through with the low volume.  Still one & half days left after today.