Marks Trading Log - Page 4  

Log Entry 07/8/2012:

Week ends down from 1362.16 to 1354.68,  7.48 handles or -0.55% .

Recent monthly percentages from Jan.

Monthly chart still filling out projected Pennant formation.

Current Monthly Drawing set. Present doji candle reflecting a period of indecision.

On the weekly still watching the progress of the Round Top.

Current weekly with trend line drawing set.

Looking at another smaller Round Bottom formation.

I'll wait to see if lips meet at the 1410 area before bothering with measurements.

Blue and top purple pivot lines acting as strong resistance.

Start off with some daily charts that I made earlier in the week..

Round Bottom resembles a cup without the handle.

This is from previous log entry.

This is the revised version Daily Symmetrical Triangle re-drawn.

Current daily drawing set. Key support/pivot (purple line) holding for now.

Longer term daily trend lines put price below mid channel.

On the hourly charts. Original Pennant.

Also added small angled triangle.

Pennant and a breakdown from small angled triangle.

Possible Round Bottom forming.

Some hourly trend lines.

Current Daily VAP POC chart. Price below POC 136.75 level.

So far just all the usual stuff.

Here's where it starts getting interesting.

VIX falling with market is a sign of strength in the background.

Not sure about the potential for the VIX index to follow the market psychology for chart patterns,

however a Head and Shoulders formation on the Daily VIX.

US Treasury/Dollar safe haven assets reflecting risk off ATM.

Weekly TLT continuation Pennant.

Daily TLT fighting back with a sloppy Head and Shoulders.

Although risk sentiment can't seem to get Bond Yield back down to the 2.5% near term bottom.

Dollar more of a safe haven risk strength than from an improving economic sentiment.

However this next chart of the Adjusted S&P Normalized to the DXY

shows what stocks are valued with the US Dollar value fluctuation removed.

First Graph.

Next graph shows Friday's small move downward a reflection of underlying strength in the Stock Market,

despite rising Dollar from risk sentiment and actual value increase.

I've taken the above graph and superimposed a semi transparent overlay to try and get an oscillating pattern.

This is also telling a more bullish story with the S&P's normalized counterpart breaking to new highs.

This next chart marks days when the S&P and DXY was both either up or both down.

Parity is also marked in green.

The purpose was to try and illustrate days of extreme sentiment one way or the other.

The one thing that's obvious and really stands out is the period between mid-March and near end of April

where there is a scarcity of S&P DX both up days. A blank with April highs as it's focal point I find quite interesting.

A possible pattern that I will continue to observe.

I'm going to conclude risk section with these thoughts.

I think the risk on sentiment will remain as constant while stocks will

continue to show the same support in the face of continued risk on sentiment.

I think that line in the sand at 2.5% US Treasury Bond Yield is a huge motivator for that

resilience in stocks that has been the re-occurring theme.

If perchance that sentiment changes and Dollar/TLT tops out, will send a much stronger

reaction to stocks than in their decline. IMO.

Current Portfolio:

In conclusion to my log, I expect a healthy fight between the bulls and bears.

I am finding indecision in all the contrary indications.

For the Bears I like the TLT Weekly Pennant as well as continued safe haven asset strength.

For the Bulls just below rising up trend mid channel, on the mid term time frame is a slightly bullish argument.

Then there's the VIX down with the Market and stable stocks despite stronger dollar.

As well as low Treasury Yield indicates stocks will continue to bounce off 2.5%-2.65% regardless off risk pressure.

Last thing is that well known Inverted Head and Shoulders met my conservative target at 1372 and is done in my book.

Going to stick with my prior projection in chart below.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                    Get in your Votes HSM.

Link to Weekly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/237012/marcos-weekly-sentiment-poll-7-9-7-13

Link to Monthly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/232262/marcos-monthly-hsm-sentiment-poll-for-july

Poll result spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJPbnZZeVdIWWRGdE9uMUJwa1FCS2c

                                                                     Other Links.

                                                     Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheets.

                                                                     Data From Feb:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdHo3NlhRYXFsMm55bTdFUWNtc3J3Tnc

                                                                     Data From Jan.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

                     I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

References:

Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

News, Futures, Screener and more.

http://www.finviz.com/

Software:

Ubuntu Linux OS
Ubuntu Gimp image editor

Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

TOS Platform (paper trade account)

Oanda Forex

Etrade

Log Entry 07/15/2012:

Week ends up slightly from 1354.68 to 1356.78,  2.1 handles or 0.16% .

Recent monthly percentages from Jan.

Not much change in current monthly doji candle.

Still referring to this drawing set of two Round Tops (red/green),and one Round Bottom(yellow).

Above 1365 would entertain the yellow Round Bottom and larger green Round Top.

Looking at this monthly chart to illustrate the larger time frames and market trend.

Lots of crosstalk about time frames and trends so I wish to add my thoughts and opinions on the matter.

I've seen long term charts normalized from everything from Bonds to inflation,

dating back to 1900's and think that they are very misleading.

Not only was 1900-1950's a whole different time and era, but the last 3 or so years, with near zero

overnight lending rates, has been technically zero inflation. I think the farther out the chart goes the more

accuracy it loses.

I think it's important to not get tripped up by such charts going that far back, however realistically

the monthly chart that just goes back to a more recent time can reflect two main time frame differences.

One is the super macro 10+ year Warren Buffet time frame and the smaller yearly time frame.

Both being long term, both with higher highs/lows. Very easy to see a secular bull market with smaller bear markets within.

Very important for any swing trader to know the overall longer term trends.

Moving on to the weekly S&P charts.

Same weekly drawing set shows long legged doji candle still below pivot and resistances.

Still watching progress of the longer time frame Round Top.

Candle looks more of a long legged doji than spinning top.

Still a reflection of indecision despite closing near top.

Next candle would indicate direction confirmation, that is if it is not another indecision doji.

Originally watching for this to form a wedge (yellow lines)

Some what of a wedge. Tough to gage where breakout/down spots would be at this point.

Not a big fan of this pattern as price already broke down from original wedge and

could very well form a channel instead.

Closing in on the smaller time frames, S&P daily charts showing some mixed signs.

Trend lines here show various ranges. Purple resistance being main pivot to upper channels.

Like to point out that I still have the 175/200 day SMA MA.'s in my TOS studies set.

This will be the forth time price bounced off the rising 175 SMA.(dash).

Also important to note that the 200 day SMA is rising. Once again a reminder that,

Quote:

The Bulls stampede above the 200 day SMA.

This is another good drawing set. Above purple pivot would put price in new range.

This is the least favorite chart. S&P Daily Round Bottom, developed a way too long of a handle to call it a cup n handle.

Not close enough to text-book to get happy with this one.

Moving on to the aforementioned "mixed signals".

Next two charts the more favorite of mine Symmetrical Triangle.

Known as a coiling of price like a snake, that will eventually breakout or down with significant pressure.

Looked like it was going to breakdown, but now making another run for resistance.

Vertex just around the corner, so this formation should give confirmation break soon.

Not a confirmed right shoulder as of yet, however very possible. Got the drawing set saved anyway.

Really like this TOS platform for saving drawings and studies. Does not at all seem unlikely, in this current

market environment to take another run between the 175/200 day SMA or in this case 1313.

Fifth times the charm?

Looking at ES for overall volume trend. Currently undergoing a lower volume trend,

similar to beginning of this chart.

Hourly SPY volume profiles. Five day hourly VAP POC in red.

Note steady overall down volume with increasing up volume.

Risk aversion seems to be easing a bit, however I remain slightly bullish on safe haven US Treasuries/Dollar assets.

As anticipated, Market has been reacting less to a stronger dollar than on weak dollar,

as well as that strong bounce off low 2.5% 30yr. Treasury Yields.

More on the S&P/DXY inverse correlation with my favorite spreadsheet and chart, to come.

First the VIX, this week was falling along with the market in some cases.

Reflecting a non-fear, mechanical or controlled sell off.

Will not be surprised to see the forth lower low to be put in on this weekly chart.

I've had this Pennant drawing set for awhile. Not too excited on measurements on account of the correlation divergence

and stronger US Dollar is an indication of longer term positive market sentiment, despite the value change aspect.

Still a good idea to keep track of TLT in any case. TOS calling this hammer doji candle a "hanging man".

I often disagree with most all of TOS automatic study this or automatic that.

I much prefer to rely on my own methods in these cases.

Note decreasing overall volume from the highs.

One interesting volume event between ES and TLT.

Highest volume peak or volume POC marking the low selling climax on the ES was on 6/1/12.

TLT volume POC for the high buying climax was on 5/31/12.

So again, TLT is still good to watch for signs of sentiment change.

I've posted these comparison charts before, and think it's time to take another peek at their progress.

Definitely an overall bullish trend on both S&P and TLT. Normally inverse by nature, divergence in the correlation

can be observed.

This is the progress of the slow and steady erosion of Bond Yield to Bond price.

Current 30yr US Treasury Bond Yield bouncing off anticipated 2.5%.

Will 2.56 hold out as near term bottom is any ones guess.

Breakout of flag on the DXY weekly. Stopped with same kind of indecision doji candle on resistance.

Above purple pivot in higher trading range.

Looking bullish on the DXY daily. Consolidation bounce of purple pivot/support then up she goes, IMO.

With Stronger safe haven US Dollar/Treasury assets, how can you be so bullish?

This is something I posted in my Stock Market Today, Count Down to Blastoff Thread.

I also had this to say in description of my adjusted S&P normalized to the US Dollar spread-sheet project.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

To wrap this up I think this latest trading range has been tough on swing traders.

Time decay on the 3x leveraged ETF UPRO as well as negative margin interest puts

a strain on current position. Need to reach extreme ups or downs to keep working Mr. Market.

Not looking at buying or selling at exact bottoms or tops. Almost always price goes past where I

buy or sell. Extremes, I think are the logical times to buy/sell.

Patience is key as in order to beat Mr. Market you must first meet him half-way.

Current Portfolio.

Last off few Apple charts.

Still looking at the daily HS on aapl.

As well as the Triangle.

Current AAPL daily chart.

In conclusion my prognostication guess is consolidation to 1351, possibly to Head and Shoulders target 1313.

Above 1351 indicates upward test of resistance, 1367 stands out as main pivot. A break of 1367 and look out 1370/80 area.

One of the most important developments this week will be if a right shoulder forms on the S&P daily for the bears,

or 2.5% yield holds, rising 200 day SMA, continued upward mid-long term channel for the Bulls.

Too bad about FXStreet calender featuring Olsen Market Quake Scale, is out of order.

Everything shows up as .4, lol. Oh well I will resume as soon as they start working again.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                    Get in your Votes HSM.

Link to Weekly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/239075/marcos-weekly-sentiment-poll-7-16-7-20

Link to Monthly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/232262/marcos-monthly-hsm-sentiment-poll-for-july

Poll result spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJPbnZZeVdIWWRGdE9uMUJwa1FCS2c

                                                                     Other Links.

                                                     Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheets.

                                                                     Data From Feb:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdHo3NlhRYXFsMm55bTdFUWNtc3J3Tnc

                                                                     Data From Jan.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

                     I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

References:

Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

News, Futures, Screener and more.

http://www.finviz.com/

Software:

Ubuntu Linux OS
Ubuntu Gimp image editor

Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

TOS Platform (paper trade account)

Oanda Forex

Etrade

Log Entry 07/22/2012:

Week ends up slightly from 1356.78 to 1362.66,  5.88 handles or 0.43% .

First off I want to start my log by thanking BigBear and others

for all their kind word's and support.

It means a lot to me to hear that others enjoy my log or post's.

The acknowledgment is greatly appreciated. Thank You.

Also like to thank the good Samaritan that has a few times helped point me

in the right direction. I hope he doesn't mind me saying,

If it wasn't for TSL I'd still be using bigcharts.

Now that I've been using TD Ameritrade's FREE trial paper-trade account,

I've had access to the wondrous world of Think or Swim platform.

Being able to save and call up saved style, drawing or study set's has

immeasurably increased efficiency.

Time to get this show on the road.

Recent monthly percentages from Jan.

Lots of charts to cover this week. Starting off with the monthly S&P.

I'm putting emphasis on current doji basing at same level as prior first yearly high.

This activity looks similar to the prior doji candle also marked out a flat base.

Doji candle indicative of the current indecision sentiment however I am seeing the gains holding a flat base.

In this way one could argue that strong bullish sentiment present in the background.

Next monthly chart has a number of trend lines.

Candle still within expected pennant.

Last monthly still watching this saved drawing set.

Measurements often serve to highlight key levels.

I've taken the monthly trend line drawing set into the weekly chart.

I can see the larger time frames seeping through time into the smaller time frames in many respects.

For one of the more simplistic examples, take that monthly doji candle.

This weekly chart's last three candles flat base pattern represents that monthly doji.

Another example is that monthly pennant is more of a weekly symmetrical triangle,

in the weekly frame of reference.

***I've got so many saved drawing sets, now I had to look and see if

I had one for the weekly symmetrical triangle. Answer is no, only the daily.

Had to whip one up real quick, just using triangle vertex as a simple break point.****

This is a drawing set where I added a Cup and Handle.

Current status of that formation.

Every so often I like to log progress on the ADX/DMI status.

I've marked out ADX trend strength low area's.

Only one out of the prior three without immediate upward response, marked in red.

ADX likely to pick up soon, I'll be watching DMI as this happens.

Looking thru all the various VAP profiles on different time frames.

Only one that stood out is on the weekly.

Last weekly chart and to conclude the weeklies is the same emphasis from the monthly chart.

This weekly VAP POC is also current Flat Base tight channel, reflecting also very key pivot.

I think the parallel aspect of a sine wave as the POC as zero on our imaginary spectrum analyzer/oscilloscope,

is indicating the wave pattern to complete an upward path.

Ok, next off the Daily charts. I have lots so I've tried to arrange the best I could.

I'll start off with the two saved daily trend line sets.

Trend lines here represent current daily upward channel, with my imaginary sine wave

traveling above and below the zero, or key pivot (purple line).

Not surprising but very interesting to see how price reacts near the intersecting triangle

resistance vertex, with upward purple pivot line.

***The vertex of an angle is the point where two rays begin or meet,

where two line segments join or meet***

Sentiment, market volume and elasticity

changed drastically, as ease of supply entered at this point.

Main daily symmetrical triangle vertex is coming up soon. More on that to come.

More of a wide lens view puts current trading range below main pivot with this saved drawing set.

On to some daily chart patterns/formations.

This is one of the original screen shots of the daily symmetrical triangle.

Had a false breakdown.

Currently as I was saying before, near triangle vertex after a false breakout.

Triangles and Wedges similar in the market psychology in that price is coiling like a spring.

I would venture to say that some heavy action is on it's way in a few days time.

This leads me to this next chart comparing this to a simple MACD.

Note the consolidation or tightening of the MACD. Also indicative of the spring coiling analogy.

I added another round bottom here on this drawing set.

From one of my posts.

Current round bottom.

I also added another drawing set as right round bottom lip formed a rising wedge.

Note target price as I will compile various formation target's, trend line key levels, various other directional

indicators and MA's, not to mention my best educated guess is in there as well to come up with

some kind of projection later on.

Last daily chart. I've already logged the target completion of the original Inverted Head and Shoulders,

and found this now busted Head and Shoulders.

This is to log key level of busted patterns throw-back area as a possible solid near term support.

Hourly more or less mid upward channel, finding support as price rounds down to

possibly form a base bottom of main pivotal area.

This screen shot of one of my original hourly pennants.

That went off to exceed conservative target to form small triangle wedge type pennant that broke down.

Currently trying to poke above falling wedge. If not for other areas of analysis I would guess

price looking to form a round bottom formation, but still remains a possibility.

Last set of hourly charts on the popular Head and Shoulders.

This is the original screen shot of the battlefield.

You can see it's the large Head and Shoulders verses the smaller Inverted Head and Shoulders.

Yet 1378 target met on the smaller underdog Inverted Head and Shoulders pulls it off.

Next off the VIX. Last VIX rally was unimpressive.

As I posted way back in my log VIX likely to remain at low levels for an extended amount of time.

Barring small rallies like the last wave, IMO VIX to remain oversold to go on to make lower weekly lows.

I am learning to not expect too much market direction indication from

US Dollar/Treasury safe haven assets anymore.

I will continue to assess the "Risk" however not relying so much on my traditional

US Dollar and Treasuries as well as currency pairs.

I will elaborate more on this later as I am bullish on TLT and the US Dollar.

TLT here looking for upward targets on weekly round top, with pennant breakout to help.

Again nothing but bullish activity on the weekly DXY.

Similar bullish continuation patterns as on TLT.

EURO no help as well in gaging risk sentiment.

This is a drawing set for /E7 EURO futures.

Latest screen shot, busted pattern.

Before I conclude risk section with the adjusted S&P, I want to submit this a the most telling in risk direction.

I'm expecting US Treasury bonds to remain bullish as Yield continues to erode. Waiting to see if 2.5% holds.

I think market reaction will be minimal to lower yield, while IMO stocks to rebound strong on any improvement in yield.

Next up and to conclude risk section, a series of adjusted S&P Normalized to the DXY graphs and chart overlays.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

One of the original graphs,

and a earlier overlay.

My latest graph.

With some trend lines drawn, I've come up with a maybe a not the worse case

but a conservative worse case projection.

As stated in prior log S&P normalized counterpart reflective of US Dollar risk/value removed.

My theory is a break of key support on the normalized version maybe an important delayed reaction to the real world.

Last few charts relating to Apple and UPRO.

Apple breaking out of Daily Symmetrical Triangle and forming bullish continuation Pennant.

Is this fore-telling market direction and will S&P break out of it's Triangle?

From another of my posts:

Going to keep to those areas for taking profit.

Hoping to improve my scaling in and out timing, in a slow and patient coarse.

My plan ATM is to wait for low 60's or mid to high 80's to buy/sell.

The two set for the chopping block are marked in red.

As I cycle out of the higher priced lots, in turn reduces my average price.

The goal here is obviously to maintain a constant position while always looking for extremes

to take action. Thereby in theory, slow but surely reducing average price as small profit taking to

liquidate higher price lots.

***Did I just say the same thing twice?, Hmmmm. Must be an echo in here.****

Ok to conclude I promised a educated guess and my projection.

First I want to emphasize.

1) Holding gains is a background bullish bias.

2) Holding gains despite a rising Dollar is bullish bias in the background.

3) Rising 200 day SMA.

4) Severe bounce off the Rising 200 day SMA.

5) Risk is no longer very helpful to look at save Treasury Bond Yields.

6) Flat Base is more often than not a bullish indication.

I've drawn in my guess at the next candle being a bullish hammer candle closing around the 1370.

On the Daily I've stroked in my "not the  worst case, worse case" projection.

I think it will be very very close to flat as per the definition in the weekly poll,

however I'm going to vote up. All the flat votes, lol ... gotta break it up over there.

That's it for this week's compilation. I will see and report how close or off on my projections.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                    Get in your Votes HSM.

Link to Weekly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/241133/marcos-weekly-sentiment-poll-7-23-7-27

Link to Monthly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/241136/marcos-monthly-hsm-sentiment-poll-for-august

Poll result spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJPbnZZeVdIWWRGdE9uMUJwa1FCS2c

                                                                     Other Links.

                                                     Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheets.

                                                                     Data From Feb:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdHo3NlhRYXFsMm55bTdFUWNtc3J3Tnc

                                                                     Data From Jan.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

                     I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

References:

Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

News, Futures, Screener and more.

http://www.finviz.com/

Software:

Ubuntu Linux OS
Ubuntu Gimp image editor

Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

TOS Platform (paper trade account)

Oanda Forex

Etrade

Log Entry 07/29/2012:

Week ends up big from 1362.66 to 1385.97,  23.31 handles or 1.71% .

Nice finish to the week with a huge pop on the last two trading days.

Recent monthly percentages from Jan.

Starting with the Monthly SPX chart.

From prior log entry.

Monthly doji now a hammer. Top of the Symmetrical Triangle/Pennant, trend line resistance at 1403 (red line).

Revisiting this TOS saved drawing set. I've mapped out so far three similar formations.

From left to right

1) Large Round Top marked in green lines.

2) Medium size Round Bottom marked in yellow lines.

3) Small Round Top marked in red lines.

Monthly candle currently has breached the #2 medium size Round Bottom's breakout point,

as well as the #1 larger Round Top.

With only few trading days left to this monthly candle, I expect will close above these marks

as confirmation that the game is a foot with these two formations and will be logging their progress.

Not surprising to see the weekly SPX closing at trend line resistance.

However and highly subjective is my manually drawn blue key pivot line.

As I've stated and used this analogy before, like zero on an imaginary oscilloscope.

Notice price reaction after crossing above or below this line. I often think of this phenomena

as a sine wave crossing above and below zero or it's "Pivot".

Poking above this 1380 mark not necessarily anything conclusive in itself,

although it is a good bullish sign as I think top of the flat base 1367 will be solid support,

with breakout confirmation on the SPX Weekly Round Bottom in the background.

Note the rounding on what I refer to as a Flat Base (purple lines).

Almost a tiny cup by itself.

I've been researching the variety of Round Bottom and Cup and Handles and have found

that this Flat Base can fully qualify as a handle. I now think I can classify the Round Bottom

formation as a Cup and Handle.

Daily Chart quite bullish from Friday's candle just bashed thru key resistance and my purple pivot.

On the wider lens, a move to 1400 above pivot would confirm new trading range.

For the daily chart patterns/formations.

I've redrawn to include false breakdown/breakouts (yellow line),

on the SPX Daily Symmetrical Triangle.

Another breakout from Friday's candle. Ideally like to see a throwback bounce off the yellow

resistance, should now be solid support for Triangle to work it's way to target.

I consider this a longer term formation.

Using the Round Bottom measurements for the Double Bottom peaks and valleys to get

an approximate near term target.

This is my saved TOS drawing set of the SPX hourly.

I am confided in the way that price moved within these pre-drawn lines and found support

right on the top my purple pivot.

Next chart logging more or less some doodling, mapping out formations on the hourly.

As for the VIX, still going by prior assessment.

Prior comments on the risk assets.

Still slightly bullish on US Treasuries. I think limited downside on TLT as inverse correlation to S&P erodes.

Although low Bond Yields extremely important. Bounced below the 2.5% and promptly reversed.

If anything reverses bullish course for risk it'll be Yield, IMO.

The US Dollar not looking in bad shape.

Same as Treasuries, I expect limited downside.

It's not too often I include Gold in the risk assessment section of my log,

however as I've logged before the telling nature Gold can have to the market.

It has been acting as quite the bell-weather, as a leading indicator,

reversing days before the S&P, illustrated on this chart.

I created this Wed. just before the reversal in the S&P.

This is the current version.

To conclude this section of my log, the Adjusted S&P Normalized to the US Dollar (DXY) chart.

So far support held and noting Thursday movement while a large move on the S&P was minimal on the normalized counterpart,

reflecting a movement in almost parity to the DXY. Meaning the S&P really didn't move much.

On Friday however ratio to lower DXY largely disproportionate to rising S&P, resulting in a much larger move in chart below.

Sticking with these prior comments.

I do believe line and candles will cross as the S&P overtakes the normalized version.

Got close on Thursday.

Current working UPRO orders stand.

From last log entry.

Current Portfolio.

That just about wraps it up.

I'm going to conclude with last weeks and this coming week projection.

I underestimated to the top side on my drawn in weekly candle. Got a much larger hammer closing weekly candle.

Never underestimate the power of the Flat Base.

Underestimated the topside and downside on the daily projection.

For the coming weekly projection. Support from top of Flat Base and close above 1400,

Daily Double Bottom target.

On the Daily stroked in possible path for this week, to coincide as per above weekly chart.

That's it for this week!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                    Get in your Votes HSM.

Link to Weekly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/243190/marcos-weekly-sentiment-poll-7-30-8-3

Link to Monthly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/241136/marcos-monthly-hsm-sentiment-poll-for-august

Poll result spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJPbnZZeVdIWWRGdE9uMUJwa1FCS2c

                                                                     Other Links.

                                                     Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheets.

                                                                     Data From Feb:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdHo3NlhRYXFsMm55bTdFUWNtc3J3Tnc

                                                                     Data From Jan.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

                     I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

References:

Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

News, Futures, Screener and more.

http://www.finviz.com/

Software:

Ubuntu Linux OS
Ubuntu Gimp image editor

Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

TOS Platform (paper trade account)

Oanda Forex

Etrade

Log Entry 08/05/2012:

Week ends slightly up/flat from 1,385.97 to 1,390.99,  5.02 handles or 0.36% ,

after an all week decline with a turnaround Friday to absorb all losses.

Recent monthly percentages from Jan.

Not much change to current monthly candle from last week.

Still bullish nearing top of pennant.

Current monthly Round Top and Bottom progress.

Weekly trend lines showing upward bias,

closing on top of long term pivot and resistance.

Progress of the weekly Cup and Handle.

Daily SPX trend lines.

Broke down below channel last week and bounced off support Friday.

Daily Symmetrical Triangle temporary support,

broke down and back up leaving longer term formation target still in play.

Charting the Round Bottoms and now looking for Double Bottom target.

Current.

Flag forming on the daily,

Broke down,

just to pop back to upside forming a sloppy Rising three Methods

(with a little candle blending on first two candles).

Something else that Rock mentioned about running stops is worth taking note.

Looking at SPY on the hourly chart.

Long tails often pointing to opposite of near term direction.

VIX still following along with expected decline.

TLT showing some weakness as risk aversion eases slightly.

Future of Bond Yields is anyones guess. I think a slow erosion of ratio of Bond price to Yield.

TYX 30 year US Treasury Yield.

DXY forming possible descending wedge.

Recently looking at gold as a leading indicator. (see prior log entry)

GLD weekly Descending Wedge could be telling of a market decline,

probably a month or so out as price nears triangle vertex.

Daily shows gold price could go either way near term.

Becoming quite fond of the Adjusted S&P Normalized to the DXY chart.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

Graph factors out US Dollar value/risk.

Current S&P with spreadsheet chart overlay.

Still have same open orders from last log entry.

Current Portfolio.

To conclude, SPX Weekly Projection from last week.

Critique on last weeks guesstimate was a bit high,

but not too far off.

SPX Daily projection from last week.

Current weekly chart projection.

And on the Daily.

That's it for this week

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                    Get in your Votes HSM.

Link to Weekly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/245273/marcos-weekly-sentiment-poll-8-6-8-10

Link to Monthly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/241136/marcos-monthly-hsm-sentiment-poll-for-august

Poll result spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJPbnZZeVdIWWRGdE9uMUJwa1FCS2c

                                                                     Other Links.

                                                     Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheets.

                                                                     Data From Feb:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdHo3NlhRYXFsMm55bTdFUWNtc3J3Tnc

                                                                     Data From Jan.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

                     I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

References:

Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

News, Futures, Screener and more.

http://www.finviz.com/

Software:

Ubuntu Linux OS
Ubuntu Gimp image editor

Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

TOS Platform (paper trade account)

Oanda Forex

Etrade

Log Entry 08/12/2012:

Week ends up 1,390.99 to 1405.87,  14.88 handles or 1.07% .

First off thanks for the post's. I greatly appreciate the good words. Wealth of information here at HSM,

continual learning experience for all as the markets evolve, and we along with it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stevie_B 

Marcos, I read your thread every week. Every week something that you are writing about clicks and that low watt light bulb in my head gets a little brighter. 

 

Just wanted to say thanks
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by fortuogo 

Marcos,

I just wanted to say thank you for all the work you've put into this thread. There is so much helpful information. Thank you so much! Hope everything is going well with you.

Our current monthly percentages from Jan.

Got back most of the gains from April and up 10% for the year.

Current monthly bullish candle still poking above long term resistance or as I've posted before,

poking above the long term Symmetrical Triangle. Also included in this saved drawing set is the

Inverted Head and Shoulders that has already given breakout and throw back confirmation.

Always checking progress in these Long term monthly Round Top/Bottom patterns.

On the SPX weekly making clean break above long term resistance (red) and long term pivot (blue).

Expecting hard support atop blue line.

Weekly ADX trend strength at extreme low level. Expecting this to turn upward soon,

along with the MACD cross and positive divergence.

Noting curvature of volume and price marked with dotted line, on the SPY weekly VAP POC profile.

Several chart patterns this log with target met.

For the last weekly chart, target met on the Cup and Handle.

Daily SPX chart near term trend breaking ground in new range.

Mid term daily, still testing resistance.

Evidence of strong upward overall trend in rising 200 day SMA.

Expecting significant bullish activity from recent bounce off the rising 200 day SMA.

From a previous post.

Currently slightly above flat base channel, however still watching for more upside

to top of Rising Wedge (red lines).

Daily chart patterns, targets met on Bull Flag and

Double Bottom.

Current S&P daily chart pattern breakout of near term bull continuation Pennant.

Current mid term Symmetrical Triangle pattern progress.

From a previous post.

SPX hourly Head and Shoulders.

This current hourly S&P Head and Shoulders target as good as met before the upward trend resumed.

Also from another post.

Current look.

Nothing new as expected a lower and lower VIX.

Risk safe haven assets relaxing a bit for now.

From a previous post.

Current TLT still watching for possible right shoulder to develop.

US Treasury 30yr. Bond Yield retracing  back to 2.7% area.

Not expecting any large movement from the DXY or much of a reaction to dollar strength,

rather expecting strong positive reaction on any dollar weakness.

To further illustrate this I refer to my trusty Adjusted S&P Normalized the DXY.

From an earlier post.

      Quote:

Current graph.

Current overlay, and to conclude risk section,

shows bounce pattern repeating after S&P and normalized counterpart lines meet.

For Apple traders and for my own entertainment,

the AAPL daily Inverted Head and Shoulders breakout forming Pennant.

From an earlier post.

Current UPRO chart getting close to my first target 84.77, near top of channel resistance.

Fairly confident the 85$ lot will sell this week.

Logging some funny portfolio numbers.

Current portfolio with two lots set for chopping block marked in red.

Last week projections and to conclude this log with this week guesstimates.

Pretty close with last weeks candle projection.

Over shot the downside a bit but right on line with last weeks daily projection.

This week candle I'm guessing it stay within rising channel wedge just as last time.

For the daily, a weak Mon. and stronger rest the week, is my guess.

That's a wrap for this week.

Likely to post a mid-week update in the "CountDown to BlastOff thread" in Stock Market Today section.

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/179687/countdown-to-blastoff/120#post_2883340

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                    Get in your Votes HSM.

Link to Weekly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/247357/marcos-weekly-sentiment-poll-8-13-8-17

Link to Monthly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/241136/marcos-monthly-hsm-sentiment-poll-for-august

Poll result spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJPbnZZeVdIWWRGdE9uMUJwa1FCS2c

                                                                     Other Links.

                                                     Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheet.

                                                                    Data From Jan.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

                     I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

References:

Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

News, Futures, Screener and more.

http://www.finviz.com/

Software:

Ubuntu Linux OS
Ubuntu Gimp image editor

Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

TD Ameritrade TOS (thinkorswim) Platform (paper trade account)

Oanda Forex

Etrade

Log Entry 08/19/2012:

Week ends up 1405.87 to 1418.16, 12.29 handles or 0.87% .

First I will address fortuogo's question.

I am pretty new to Ameritrade's TOS (Thinkorswim) platform (free paper-trade account).

I experiment a little bit here and there but I am using a small fraction of it's full capabilities.

I looked up in the manual and googled the sharing ability of TOS "workspace".

Quote:

Originally Posted by fortuogo 

Hey Marco,

 

I'm just wondering how can I adjust my charts so they are like yours. I just recently got thinkorswim and can't find it anywhere on the manual. Do you have a set preference that you wouldn't mind sharing?

TOS transfer workspace faq.

http://tlc.thinkorswim.com/center/reference/faq.html#HowdoImovemysettingsfromonecomputertoanother

How to transfer workspace xml file on pc/mac, document.
http://ubuntuone.com/4zAbQ4veRMnxKY7SoFnBCm

Here is my default workspace xml file from my Ubuntu Linux opt/thinkorswim directory.

Right click on link to save as file to your computer.
http://ubuntuone.com/5fM5JjzKZ2NWE7UJiErr0a
Unfortunately I do not see if saved studies/drawing sets are transferred as well.
I'd be interested if they do appear on your computer or not.

Hope this helps you out and if you don't mind, PM me the outcome.

On with the log.....

Our current monthly percentages from Jan.

Current monthly candle still maintaining comfortable position above key pivots.

Unconfirmed until closed monthly candle, remains above top confirmation breakout

of Symmetrical Triangle. However Inverted Head and Shoulders target is afoot.

Same applies to the smaller and latest of the round top/bottom formations (red lines).

Last monthly chart. A flag pole off the last Pennant forming another Pennant in breakout mode.

Looking at the S&P weekly trend lines.

Closer look at that nice bullish closing weekly candle.

Confirming breakout signal on the Round Top.

Going to pull up an old chart from my log.

Original weekly MACD/DMI.

ADX setting up as DMI's cross over. I've chosen this star doji candle

as the weekly projection guesstimate for the relative position of the ADX/DMI,

that I will go into later.

Daily longer term trend hanging in there like a champ.

Near term overall trend still intact.

Looking at the daily patterns and starting with the longer term

Symmetrical Triangle and Inverted Head and Shoulders.

Original lines drawn on the daily Pennant.

Then re-drawn.

Nice launch from Daily Flat Base.

Not sure I would call this a confirmed breakout of Rising Wedge, just poking it's head up there for now.

I never get too excited over Rising Wedges. From the pattern site.

I think likely scenario will be a upward breakout of this so called reversal pattern.

Daily SPY VAP POC chart

Looking for further evidence of the flat base pattern in the hourlies.

Confirmation breakout of the Flag.

Last Hourly chart. ES Ascending Triangle.

Risk "on" signals across the board.

I think short lived as I am expecting strength in both US Dollar/Treasury safe haven assets

along with the S&P to continue. I do not think it's fair to say these correlations are broken,

more like to me they are telling us things in the divergence and how the changes manifest.

VIX prognostications still intact.

TLT Weekly very bearish.

Not much of a right shoulder,  but TLT daily Head and Shoulders target in sight.

US Treasury 30yr Bond Yield, TYX daily Pennant.

On the DXY front.

All this is ok, but my Adjusted S&P Normalized to the DXY chart is rapidly becoming a favorite.

Added the S&P (red line) to it's normalized counterpart.

As you can see positive reaction to both dollar strength and weakness as they spread apart.

To conclude risk section with a not really a risk asset, Gold.

Once again GLD gave fair warning with a day in advance, pointing out the way.

Trying to keep track of the various pattern/formation targets in this TOS saved drawing set.

Going into the Portfolio section of my log...

Daily FCX Flag. Cant wait to sell this POS.

Only reason I decided against taking the loss is the dividend.

Target met on AAPL daily Pennant and Inverted Head and Shoulders.

Possible targets on UPRO daily Symmetrical Triangle and Inverted Head and Shoulders.

Taking a look back to the inception of my log at performance.

11/11/2011 Portfolio:

End of year portfolio entry:

From the intraday thread:

Current Portfolio looking at around 50% gains from inception of this log and from Jan. start of the year.

Before I get into my more serious guesstimated projections, a look at this chart I created for fun.

Quote:

And for my own personal bullish propaganda pleasure. I submit this not to be taken seriously
past Dec.-March Flat Base stair-stepping overlay, superimposed on current flat base.

Although initial accuracy is close, I'll be more convinced upon a few more Flat Base patterns developing.

Last week prior weekly candle prediction pretty close.

Last weeks daily projection a bit off with fairly close outcome.

This week I am expecting a fairly wide range closing with Indecision star doji weekly candle.

Superimposed from similar section preceding with bullish confirmation candle.

I think this week candle will turn out to be a continuation doji after next week's

possible bullish confirmation candle.

Partially basing this on the aforementioned position of the weekly ADX/DMI and MACD.

And the possible path for the daily is a weak open followed by a test of fresh highs to settle flat to up.

Not be surprised to find another tight channel Flat Base forming.

More of a time than price before the next move, IMO.

That's all I got, off to vote.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                    Get in your Votes HSM.

Link to Weekly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/249413/marcos-weekly-sentiment-poll-8-20-8-24

Link to Monthly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/250052/marcos-monthly-hsm-sentiment-poll-for-september

Poll result spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJPbnZZeVdIWWRGdE9uMUJwa1FCS2c

                                                                     Other Links.

                                                     Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheet.

                                                                    Data From Jan.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

                     I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

References:

Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

News, Futures, Screener and more.

http://www.finviz.com/

Software:

Ubuntu Linux OS
Ubuntu Gimp image editor

Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

TD Ameritrade TOS (thinkorswim) Platform (paper trade account)

***Here is my default workspace xml file from my Ubuntu Linux opt/thinkorswim directory.***
**Right click on link to save as file to your computer.**

http://ubuntuone.com/5fM5JjzKZ2NWE7UJiErr0a

Oanda Forex

Etrade

Log Entry 08/26/2012:

Week ends Flat/Down from 1418.16 to 1411.13 , 7.03 handles or -0.50% .

Here are our monthly percentage change starting from Jan.

SPX Monthly charts, starting with our basic trend lines.

Now a spinning top candle, still poking above Pennant in the same bullish fashion.

This is the same monthly chart with a close up look at the Pennant and measurements.

If candle closes close to where it is now, will be another possible monthly formation.

Current monthly candle right at Round Top/Round Top lip 1410/11.

Another look at my Symmetrical Triangle/Inverted Head and Shoulders chart,

showing strong support at Triangle throw-back.

Only two weekly charts this week.

SPX basic trend lines and bearish spinning top to match the monthlies bearish spinning top.

So far without looking at volume and just focusing primarily on candles and trend,

between the monthly and weekly here is indication of sideways indecision.

My first impression is flat near term.

Looking at the weekly Round Top progress, bounced off Cup target 1402, to rest atop

Weekly Round Top breakout/throw-back area.

Last weekly chart, added a few targets to the list.

Daily SPX longer term trend lines and inconspicuous break above pivot, circled.

I think the daily really looks to be forming a Round Bottom Cup.

A look at the near term trend lines showing a break down below purple pivot.

Also indicating a tight range ahead, sideways and up along bottom yellow support

gives strength to my Cup theory.

Slight adjustments to the original drawing on this daily SPX formation.

Recent Flat Base prediction sprung a leak down to the prior Flat Base bulkhead.

One of the more reliable of the candle patterns is the Piercing or Tweezer/Scissors.

This pattern is pretty good at reflecting a stomping down of a solid bottom.

Now that I can see candle and trends on an array of time frames, I will then introduce volume

on a variety of time frames and VAP profiles. I'm focusing on any clues to support or not the

initial impressions.

This daily /ES volume I'm looking at all the prior stop running measured moves marked in black rectangles.

Turn around points all showing same similar declining stop volume (white markings).

I believe same volume MO supports the strength of the Piercing pattern and

increases the possibility in my mind for the Round Bottom idea.

Including some observations earlier in the week.

Candle Blended Rising 3 Methods from looking at that short pole flag a bit more.

Hourly /ES chart from earlier in the week.

This hourly chart looking at near term Head and Shoulder formations.

VIX following along predictable pattern.

From earlier in the week.

Looking at "Risk" and /ZB 30yr  US Treasury futures not in bad shape.

Some comments from earlier in the week.

Daily TYX.

Descending Triangle target pretty much met on the daily /DX.

Been watching S&P following Gold pretty good for awhile.

Daily /GC looking toppy near term.

Getting into the Adjusted S&P Normalized to the DXY charts.

From earlier in the week.

Current Normalized S&P broke important support.

Current Normalized and S&P comparison.

I think the market correlating with the dollar is a good sign.
Market is looking at dollar strength as good and dollar weakness as bad.
Removing the dollar risk/actual value from the S&P has given me a unique view
of current sentiment.
Is this a period where the market will see good news as good, and bad as bad?

This chart is illustrating the reaction of these two lines coming closer together.

OK, I'm going to wrap this up with current portfolio,

last week and this week guesstimated prognostications.

Last weeks star doji turns out as bearish spinning top.

Just as in the weekly, daily started off the week along expectations and went all wrong after Thursday.

See how close I get this week. Looking at a fairly flat to up sideways move,

closing just above yellow support.

And on the daily looking to form Round Bottom, possible Cup and Handle.

I don't think this is going to be the week to close above 1420.

More like settle out at the 1418 area.

That's it for this week.

Could easily vote Flat in this weeks poll, I think I'll vote up as I believe S&P will close slightly above the 1/2% mark.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                    Get in your Votes HSM.

Link to Weekly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/251511/marcos-weekly-sentiment-poll-8-27-8-31

Link to Monthly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/250052/marcos-monthly-hsm-sentiment-poll-for-september

Poll result spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJPbnZZeVdIWWRGdE9uMUJwa1FCS2c

Member Voting Record. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGw1UXdSdzNSVFlDUlF1TzZxSzV5MlE

                                                                    Other Links.

                                                     Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheet.

                                                                    Data From Jan.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

                     I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

References:

Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

News, Futures, Screener and more.

http://www.finviz.com/

Software:

Ubuntu Linux OS
Ubuntu Gimp image editor

Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

TD Ameritrade TOS (thinkorswim) Platform (paper trade account)

***Here is my default workspace xml file from my Ubuntu Linux opt/thinkorswim directory.***
**Right click on link to save as file to your computer.**

http://ubuntuone.com/5fM5JjzKZ2NWE7UJiErr0a

Oanda Forex

Etrade

Log Entry 09/02/2012:

This will be a pretty light log this week to go along with the shorter trading week.

 Week ends Flat/Down from 1411.13 to 1406.58 , 4.55 handles or -0.32% .

Monthly percent change starting from Jan.

Adding  Aug. 2012 to the decade months up and down list.

Monthly charts now have a closing bullish spinning top candle.

No higher high as of yet but closed above key level,

breaking above Pennant,

and Symmetrical Triangle.

Bearish topping candles on the weeklies contradicting the longer term monthly.

Although a sloping handle forming on a now larger Round Bottom.

Descending Triangle target met, leaving a Flag formation.

Daily barely hanging in there.

Downside targets met on the Symmetrical Triangle,

and Flag.

Leaky Flat Base taking a step up, down and 1/2 step back up,

still leaving me an upward bias over the mid term.

Not reassuring without the completed piercing candlestick pattern.

Needed 2/3 of prior candle body not quite there.

A adding a Double Bottom,

and a Descending Triangle to the list of drawings.

Volatility getting a boost this week.

30yr US Treasury /ZB futures looking strong reflection a risk off at the same time stocks holding gains.

Almost certain about a stronger market as Bond Yields approach prior lows.

Dollar continuing mid term down trend.

The Adjusted S&P Normalized to DXY chart showing weakness along with the Dollar.

Unfortunately had to withdrawal 500$ this week.

Not going to sell AAPL ATM but saved this for the record.

Current Portfolio:

Last weeks projection way off.

Daily not as bad, but still not up where I had thought.

Going to include a monthly guesstimate for Sept.

This week I am thinking a flat doji on the upcoming light trading week.

Trend seems like it wants to try down to low 1390's range.

However I am not expecting a prolonged stay below the first 1400 Flat Base pattern.

Still a chance to see the Round Bottom form a longer deeper cup.

Sorry, had to make it a shorter log this week. I'll be back next week, have a great Labor Day weekend.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                    Get in your Votes HSM.

Link to Weekly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/253540/weekly-poll-sentiment-9-4-9-7

Link to Monthly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/250052/marcos-monthly-hsm-sentiment-poll-for-september

Poll result spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJPbnZZeVdIWWRGdE9uMUJwa1FCS2c

Member Voting Record. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGw1UXdSdzNSVFlDUlF1TzZxSzV5MlE

                                                                    Other Links.

                                                     Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheet.

                                                                    Data From Jan.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

                     I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

References:

Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

News, Futures, Screener and more.

http://www.finviz.com/

Software:

Ubuntu Linux OS
Ubuntu Gimp image editor

Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

TD Ameritrade TOS (thinkorswim) Platform (paper trade account)

***Here is my default workspace xml file from my Ubuntu Linux opt/thinkorswim directory.***
**Right click on link to save as file to your computer.**

http://ubuntuone.com/5fM5JjzKZ2NWE7UJiErr0a

Oanda Forex

Etrade

Log Entry 09/09/2012:

 Week ends Up Big from 1406.58 to 1437.92 , 31.34 handles or 2.23% .

Monthly percent change from start of year.

Macro mid term higher high with current candle, after breaking above long term Pennant resistance.

Monthly bullish candle still young and already poking above Rising Wedge resistance.

Monthly regression channel.

Progress  on monthly chart patterns.

Credit to Stock King for inspiring me to take some measurements on this potential ultra long term

macro monthly Head and Shoulders pattern.

By my calculations S&P should be at 400 by 2017.

However a close above head would be a higher macro high and negate this pattern.

Also the neckline is imperfect and drawn horizontal to give the benefit of doubt.

Technically a Head and Shoulders cannot have a down sloping neckline.

An Inverted HS can only have a down sloping neck and not an up sloping.

A horizontal neck  in both cases has stronger performance potential.

I'm laughing now, but when I posted this at the beginning of this year as a joke......

well not so funny now.

This is the crude original drawing.

A revised version a bit later.

Another prior 3 in 1 chart shows the progression of the "complex" right shoulders.

Finally current TOS saved drawing set on both patterns.

On to the S&P weekly tend lines.

Extremely bullish marubozu candle breaking mid term resistance.

I think just above mid point on the  weekly regression channel showing a lot more upside potential. IMO.

Long awaited pick up on the weekly ADX/DMI.

Good indication to the bullish rally just starting to pick up steam. IMO.

Weekly chart patterns.

Measured move on the weekly from slanted cup handle.

Current status of weekly Round Bottom/Top Cup and Handles.

Last weekly chart with updated targets:

Whole bunch of daily charts.

Starting with the longer term daily trend lines.

Looking like a pivot above to new trading range above purple line.

Closer in mid term daily trend lines respecting resistance ATM.

Longer term daily regression channel.

Expecting new trading range above mid channel in the area of red circle.

Same as in the shorter term daily regression channel.

Long bullish marubozu candle broke out above bollinger band.

Would indicate a bit more to this current leg up. IMO.

Daily chart patterns.

Surpassed this target.

Both targets in sight.

I was expecting a Round Bottom forming here from Double Bottom formation.

However a lot stronger move ensued instead.

As I said.

ES VAP POC level seems to be slowly moving up thru the time frames.

Current 6mo. Daily POC around 1400 area.

I'm expecting POC volume will continue it's increase to the upward price levels in time.

I've marked these hourly flat base patterns.

My near term speculation favoring a Pennant scenario off building new Flat Base

atop of flagpole, as I will get into later.

Volatility at long term lows still more downside IMO.

Risk coinciding with fear index.

/ZB 30yr. US Treasury futures.

Need a bullish confirmation candle for possible Morning Star Doji.

I would love to see a good drop in Treasuries but not counting on it.

TYX 30yr US Treasury Yield.

Large drop in the /DX US Dollar index futures.

Euro off the hook breaking above resistance puts E7 in new range as well as S&P.

Financial also reflecting less uncertainty.

To conclude Risk section the Adjusted S&P normalized to the US Dollar.

Triangle building on current chart.

Comparing to red S&P showing an actual drop from dollar weakness in the normalized counterpart.

I'm thinking the poles on the magnet are about to be reversed.

And the current observation on the density of S&P/DX both up and down as of late will

be stored in memory for future contemplation.

Next up a look at some portfolio related charts.

FCX the worst performer just going nuts lately.

I cannot wait to unload this POS. It gets to 44$ and I'm out, I'll take the loss.

And of course the best performer AAPL.

Pennant breakout and forming Round Bottom on the daily.

I regret having to take out 500$ last week.

I would be up to 16.7K.

Current Portfolio.

Last weeks projections a bit off.

This week I think flat to up with a small spinning top maintaining close above

longer term rising wedge resistance, now support.

This week I'm gonna stick my neck out and call for a Flag/Pennant on the daily.

And a close above Flag end of week, see what happens.

That concludes the weeks episode.... stay tuned same bat time, same bat channel.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                    Get in your Votes HSM.

Link to Weekly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/255603/weekly-poll-sentiment-9-10-9-14

Link to Monthly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/250052/marcos-monthly-hsm-sentiment-poll-for-september

Link to Quarterly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/254438/quarterly-poll-q4-oct-dec-2012

Poll result spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJPbnZZeVdIWWRGdE9uMUJwa1FCS2c

Member Voting Record. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGw1UXdSdzNSVFlDUlF1TzZxSzV5MlE

                                                                    Other Links.

                                                     Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheet.

                                                                    Data From Jan.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

                     I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

References:

Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

News, Futures, Screener and more.

http://www.finviz.com/

Software:

Ubuntu Linux OS
Ubuntu Gimp image editor

Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

TD Ameritrade TOS (thinkorswim) Platform (paper trade account)

***Here is my default workspace xml file from my Ubuntu Linux opt/thinkorswim directory.***
**Right click on link to save as file to your computer.**

http://ubuntuone.com/5fM5JjzKZ2NWE7UJiErr0a

Oanda Forex

Etrade

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/f/3051/marks-weekly-trading-log

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/f/3051/marks-weekly-trading-log

Quote:

Originally Posted by marcosx3x 

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/f/3051/marks-weekly-trading-log

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/f/3051/marks-weekly-trading-log

Thanks BB,

You've been very supportive from the start, I really appreciate it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigbear83 

awesome. thnx for this heads up mark! i was wondering when you'd start your own group... 'bout time you did lol. this should make navigating your content a lot more easier! i know i sound like a broken record here, but seriously, thank you again for all that you do here at hsm with the weekly updates, polls, and everything else... i can't tell you how much we all appreciate your hard work and efforts around here! rock on to one of the hardest working members, if not the hardest working member at hsm! i honestly don't know how you consistently keep up with this... and it seems you always outdo yourself every week. i am often in awe at some of your work. just incredible stuff here. thnx a ton. i've subscribed to your group.