Log Entry 07/22/2012:
Week ends up slightly from 1356.78 to 1362.66, 5.88 handles or 0.43% .
First off I want to start my log by thanking BigBear and others
for all their kind word's and support.
It means a lot to me to hear that others enjoy my log or post's.
The acknowledgment is greatly appreciated. Thank You.
Also like to thank the good Samaritan that has a few times helped point me
in the right direction. I hope he doesn't mind me saying,
If it wasn't for TSL I'd still be using bigcharts.
Now that I've been using TD Ameritrade's FREE trial paper-trade account,
I've had access to the wondrous world of Think or Swim platform.
Being able to save and call up saved style, drawing or study set's has
immeasurably increased efficiency.
Time to get this show on the road.
Recent monthly percentages from Jan.
Lots of charts to cover this week. Starting off with the monthly S&P.
I'm putting emphasis on current doji basing at same level as prior first yearly high.
This activity looks similar to the prior doji candle also marked out a flat base.
Doji candle indicative of the current indecision sentiment however I am seeing the gains holding a flat base.
In this way one could argue that strong bullish sentiment present in the background.
Next monthly chart has a number of trend lines.
Candle still within expected pennant.
Last monthly still watching this saved drawing set.
Measurements often serve to highlight key levels.
I've taken the monthly trend line drawing set into the weekly chart.
I can see the larger time frames seeping through time into the smaller time frames in many respects.
For one of the more simplistic examples, take that monthly doji candle.
This weekly chart's last three candles flat base pattern represents that monthly doji.
Another example is that monthly pennant is more of a weekly symmetrical triangle,
in the weekly frame of reference.
***I've got so many saved drawing sets, now I had to look and see if
I had one for the weekly symmetrical triangle. Answer is no, only the daily.
Had to whip one up real quick, just using triangle vertex as a simple break point.****
This is a drawing set where I added a Cup and Handle.
Current status of that formation.
Every so often I like to log progress on the ADX/DMI status.
I've marked out ADX trend strength low area's.
Only one out of the prior three without immediate upward response, marked in red.
ADX likely to pick up soon, I'll be watching DMI as this happens.
Looking thru all the various VAP profiles on different time frames.
Only one that stood out is on the weekly.
Last weekly chart and to conclude the weeklies is the same emphasis from the monthly chart.
This weekly VAP POC is also current Flat Base tight channel, reflecting also very key pivot.
I think the parallel aspect of a sine wave as the POC as zero on our imaginary spectrum analyzer/oscilloscope,
is indicating the wave pattern to complete an upward path.
Ok, next off the Daily charts. I have lots so I've tried to arrange the best I could.
I'll start off with the two saved daily trend line sets.
Trend lines here represent current daily upward channel, with my imaginary sine wave
traveling above and below the zero, or key pivot (purple line).
Not surprising but very interesting to see how price reacts near the intersecting triangle
resistance vertex, with upward purple pivot line.
***The vertex of an angle is the point where two rays begin or meet,
where two line segments join or meet***
Sentiment, market volume and elasticity
changed drastically, as ease of supply entered at this point.
Main daily symmetrical triangle vertex is coming up soon. More on that to come.
More of a wide lens view puts current trading range below main pivot with this saved drawing set.
On to some daily chart patterns/formations.
This is one of the original screen shots of the daily symmetrical triangle.
Had a false breakdown.
Currently as I was saying before, near triangle vertex after a false breakout.
Triangles and Wedges similar in the market psychology in that price is coiling like a spring.
I would venture to say that some heavy action is on it's way in a few days time.
This leads me to this next chart comparing this to a simple MACD.
Note the consolidation or tightening of the MACD. Also indicative of the spring coiling analogy.
I added another round bottom here on this drawing set.
From one of my posts.
What's growing on me is the "bump" on these round bottoms and u-shaped volume
give them a textbook look.(sorry no volume on this chart)
However, they could be not as deep and a bit more stretched out would be better.
Current round bottom.
I also added another drawing set as right round bottom lip formed a rising wedge.
Note target price as I will compile various formation target's, trend line key levels, various other directional
indicators and MA's, not to mention my best educated guess is in there as well to come up with
some kind of projection later on.
Last daily chart. I've already logged the target completion of the original Inverted Head and Shoulders,
and found this now busted Head and Shoulders.
This is to log key level of busted patterns throw-back area as a possible solid near term support.
Hourly more or less mid upward channel, finding support as price rounds down to
possibly form a base bottom of main pivotal area.
This screen shot of one of my original hourly pennants.
That went off to exceed conservative target to form small triangle wedge type pennant that broke down.
Currently trying to poke above falling wedge. If not for other areas of analysis I would guess
price looking to form a round bottom formation, but still remains a possibility.
Last set of hourly charts on the popular Head and Shoulders.
This is the original screen shot of the battlefield.
You can see it's the large Head and Shoulders verses the smaller Inverted Head and Shoulders.
Yet 1378 target met on the smaller underdog Inverted Head and Shoulders pulls it off.
Next off the VIX. Last VIX rally was unimpressive.
As I posted way back in my log VIX likely to remain at low levels for an extended amount of time.
Barring small rallies like the last wave, IMO VIX to remain oversold to go on to make lower weekly lows.
I am learning to not expect too much market direction indication from
US Dollar/Treasury safe haven assets anymore.
I will continue to assess the "Risk" however not relying so much on my traditional
US Dollar and Treasuries as well as currency pairs.
I will elaborate more on this later as I am bullish on TLT and the US Dollar.
TLT here looking for upward targets on weekly round top, with pennant breakout to help.
Again nothing but bullish activity on the weekly DXY.
Similar bullish continuation patterns as on TLT.
EURO no help as well in gaging risk sentiment.
This is a drawing set for /E7 EURO futures.
Latest screen shot, busted pattern.
Before I conclude risk section with the adjusted S&P, I want to submit this a the most telling in risk direction.
I'm expecting US Treasury bonds to remain bullish as Yield continues to erode. Waiting to see if 2.5% holds.
I think market reaction will be minimal to lower yield, while IMO stocks to rebound strong on any improvement in yield.
Next up and to conclude risk section, a series of adjusted S&P Normalized to the DXY graphs and chart overlays.
One of the original graphs,
and a earlier overlay.
My latest graph.
With some trend lines drawn, I've come up with a maybe a not the worse case
but a conservative worse case projection.
As stated in prior log S&P normalized counterpart reflective of US Dollar risk/value removed.
My theory is a break of key support on the normalized version maybe an important delayed reaction to the real world.
Last few charts relating to Apple and UPRO.
Apple breaking out of Daily Symmetrical Triangle and forming bullish continuation Pennant.
Is this fore-telling market direction and will S&P break out of it's Triangle?
From another of my posts:
After recent strength the market may want to take a breather.
That 1367 triangle resistance/pivot, should now serve as near term support.
Otherwise, the upside this week I see a likely break of 80$.
I also noted these previous gaps on the way down are conspicuously surrounding the psychological even numbers.
As I am fairly confident of a break of 80 so I made my first order 85$.
Like I said I may change that lower.
Looking to lighten the UPRO load soon.
I set some orders up that I doubt will trigger anytime soon.
I may adjust before work, as I would like to take some off the table this week,
although I may wait longer depending on what happens the rest of the week.
Playing it by ear.
I always like to use odd numbers just below the key psychological 85$, 90$ respectively.
Going to keep to those areas for taking profit.
Hoping to improve my scaling in and out timing, in a slow and patient coarse.
My plan ATM is to wait for low 60's or mid to high 80's to buy/sell.
The two set for the chopping block are marked in red.
As I cycle out of the higher priced lots, in turn reduces my average price.
The goal here is obviously to maintain a constant position while always looking for extremes
to take action. Thereby in theory, slow but surely reducing average price as small profit taking to
liquidate higher price lots.
***Did I just say the same thing twice?, Hmmmm. Must be an echo in here.****
Ok to conclude I promised a educated guess and my projection.
First I want to emphasize.
1) Holding gains is a background bullish bias.
2) Holding gains despite a rising Dollar is bullish bias in the background.
3) Rising 200 day SMA.
4) Severe bounce off the Rising 200 day SMA.
5) Risk is no longer very helpful to look at save Treasury Bond Yields.
6) Flat Base is more often than not a bullish indication.
I've drawn in my guess at the next candle being a bullish hammer candle closing around the 1370.
On the Daily I've stroked in my "not the worst case, worse case" projection.
I think it will be very very close to flat as per the definition in the weekly poll,
however I'm going to vote up. All the flat votes, lol ... gotta break it up over there.
That's it for this week's compilation. I will see and report how close or off on my projections.
Get in your Votes HSM.
Link to Weekly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/241133/marcos-weekly-sentiment-poll-7-23-7-27
Link to Monthly Poll http://www.hotstockmarket.com/t/241136/marcos-monthly-hsm-sentiment-poll-for-august
Poll result spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJPbnZZeVdIWWRGdE9uMUJwa1FCS2c
Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheets.
Data From Feb:
Data From Jan.
This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.
I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.
Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:
News, Futures, Screener and more.
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