One more week to get a closing monthly candle and see if Bulls can get a third soldier.
Price seems to be poking up above resistance. Will be good to get a close above this 1400 area and back into upper channel as support.
Next Target on the Monthly, with Cup formation:
Weekly candle has a bearish look to it but ADX screaming trend strength momentum building up.
Looking at prior spinning tops:
Using Elliptical tool to trace Dome type trend on the highs. Looks to be poking up, but this line is very rough estimation.
Daily SPY Inverted cup.
Declining volume
MACD still with trend support line.
Week within 1390-1410 range.
3/20/12 Flat Base channel:
Daily round top:
Daily Rising Wedge measurements 3/16/12.
Hourly SPY 3/22/12 Head and Shoulders:
Current hourly SPY tight spread for effort on last candle.
No surprise in the VIX.
Been calling for lower lows and lower highs. VIX could still get a lot lower IMO.
Risk switch last week got turned on. This week the weakness slowing, showing some strength coming back into safe haven assets.
I expect a slow move down.
Daily TLT cup looks to test 114/115 resistance before next move lower.
30yr weekly inverted cup:
DX Weekly HS.
Below 79 to confirm move lower.
Current DX Weekly.
Current DX Daily:
Another Inverted HS I was looking at similar to Gold as well.
This is what I was looking at last week.
Lack of sellers indicates a sign of strength.
This was a sign of move lower and was actually a bullish indication.
Another look at the VSA on hourly SPY.
This weeks SPX/DX comparison.
Bearish sentiment showing up in a total of 8 bear to 5 bull tallies for the 3 weeks of March.
14 Bull to 13 Bear whole total for this and last month.
Sold this lot:
Current Portfolio:
Forex:
Euro Daily HS:
Then an Inverted HS.
Euro Daily Flag:
Current Euro Daily:
Euro 4hr. Pennant.
Current Oanda:
In conclusion, I'm leaning up this week on account of all that liquidity sucked out of Bonds and gold (safe haven) assets has not shown up anywhere, that I can tell,
save flow into US Dollar (DX/cash) demand.
I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. All that cash is going to end up somewhere and I think it'll be in the best performing sectors.
This Weeks Calender:
Zeroing in on the important events over 1.0 on the Olsen scale.
That's all for this week. Everyone have a good week.
Got a lot of analysis for this weeks log as well as closing month and weekly candles to look at.
I'm not going to call this last monthly candle the third soldier.
Three white soldiers must open within the prior candles body.
Simply 3 nice bullish candles.
Monthly ADX slowly turning up gives strength to our weekly ADX.
MACD could go through the roof here.
I also want to point out the size of each candle body and spread.
The candle bodies are shrinking and the candle body is closing higher to top of the range.
This tells me two things. The near term is bullish and possible longer term weakness.
Weekly here I am looking at ADX, I think is very important to gage trend strength.
I think ADX heading for at least 30.
MACD has plenty of top room to go.
Weekly candle closes as "Bullish Engulfing" pattern.
Normally I would go right into the daily charts. However I am going to save that for now and finish the general section of this log with some short term charts.
I have everything automated, producing a graph of the tallies.
Take note of the height of the bull tallies (Dev-con 6) coincides with that March volume spike/tight spread.
Another look at that volume spike coincides with yellow pivot area.
Also red line support and purple resistance.
I think it's too early in making any conclusive projections, however initial data showing a prior extreme level,
I will call Dev-con 6, before rally topped out.
Now Tallies at parity or Dev-con zero, breaking below trend line.
I will be following this for some time, but as of now I would say this is a bearish sign.
Looking back now, at some other prior charts.
This Weekly Round Top playing out more to the downside target.
Dow, below S&P with piercing scissor/tweezer patterns showing up.
also with some VSA.
And this Daily HS is another possibility.
Current Portfolio:
Oanda:
Picking out the top potential market mover events, A one or greater on the Olsen Market Quake Scale.
4/24:
4/25:
4/26:
4/27:
In conclusion:
Last Week:
Quote:
To conclude this weeks log, a possible projection for coming weeks would put May as the stronger month, most likely I will be selling into.
"Sell in May and go away" April I thought was looking grim, I am not so sure now.
VSA suggests a turnaround coming due to lack of follow through,
to break key supports. Possible near term weakness although doubtful down to 1360 area, or bounce off 1360 as
a spring board to jump across creek back above 1400 level.
I think April will end up Flat, getting back all losses from last week. See what happens.
Week ends Down From 1353.39 down 58.17 handles or -4.30% .
Bulls getting clobbered.
Here is a breakdown of percentage starting from Jan. and for each month since.
OK,
First off the monthlies.
Times running out for the monthly candle.
Looking at some possible supports.
Horribly bearish candle approaching long term pivot in purple.
Weekly looking at some possible buying opportunities.
DMI cross with declining ADX trend strength is a good sign of oversold conditions turning.
However still more bearish near term action to play out as of yet.
More key levels.
The daily charts is where it starts getting interesting.
MACD oversold.
1275/80 is 200MA.
200MA also corresponding to some Sept/Nov. lows.
Closer look at oversold MACD and 200MA.
Looking at Volume.
SPY Daily.
Spy Hourly.
Bearish Volume as far as the eye can see.
15 minute, starting to see a breather from all the bearish volume.
Risk assessment is clearly "off"
VIX weekly above 20 testing 25.
MACD still a lot of room.
VIX daily still looking like fear still in play.
Treasuries through the roof.
TLT weekly.
TLT 1yr weekly.
TLT daily.
Over-bought here but with still more room left to run.
Bond Yields still plummeting.
TYX weekly.
TYX daily.
Unbelievable for yields to be this low.
2.70% could be a spark to reverse the bear rally.
As for the safe haven US Dollar, to the moon.
Although an overbought MACD with not much room to run unless it brakes out.
Looking weak here at the top ATM.
Also looking at more from the Experimental S&P/DX Risk/Dollar Value Sentiment chart.
Google Docs links at end of my log.
I had the idea to compare the spreadsheet graph with the DX.
And the current DX/graph.
I've found some interesting results.
Graph was mirroring DX pretty close until May.
And the traditional S&P/graph.
Still analyzing all this will take time for study.
To conclude risk section of my log, still more fear in the market.
We have Dollar/Treasuries/S&P and Yield all down.
Could turn any time with dollar weak off 81.50 near term high.
Looking for yields to hit below 2.70% and Treasuries to hit new near term highs, before the market to turn near term bullish.
Other charts and contemplations.
From earlier in the week on the 16th., I did some measurements on the daily Falling Wedge.(about where we closed Friday)
From CountDownToBlastOff thread.
TYX Monthly.
Recent demand from US Treasuries has me looking closely at Bond Yields.
Hard to figure why this safe haven asset is in high demand, with declining yields.
To illustrate my further investigation and analysis, I worked up some more Bond Yield charts.
Part of my conclusions from these charts are that Bond Yields certainly can get lower.
I think near term lower and interest in safe haven Treasuries will decline.
Here is a comparison of S&P to Yield.
How does all this translate to the stock market?
I'm glad you asked.
I think Bulls are holding out for some of these yield levels.
From the 17th.
(Also from CountDown thread)
Some possible good news for the Bulls as I mentioned Bond Yields have reached critical key levels.
Also the daily Euro might have provided a clue.
Looking at a nice volume spike with little result, pretty good sign of Stopping Volume.
Although it is not yet present in the Aussie, I still think it's a good chance of the Bull market to resume soon.
A lot of liquidity has been created also from the drop in Gold, that surprised me.
Watch it all show up in FaceBook, bastards.
Also like to look at the Wychoff Scematic from time to time.
Downside fear action is time to start re-accumulation mode.
Bought back these shares, bought for 75$
More will be bought around the 200MA.
Current Portfolio.
Looking at the prior Euro Stopping Volume and result so far.
Aussie starting to show some strength.
Current Oanda.
Log concludes with not much different from last log, save yield long term lows.
I think this coming week will test 200MA.
I think it'll dip below to get bears excited before bouncing.IMO.
I think low 1270's area.
(Now looking at the Euro current strength, Hmm I could be wrong)
All Events over 1.0 on the Olsen Market Quake Scale.
Week ends Down From 1317.82 to 1278.04 39.78 handles or -3.02% .
Some recent monthly percentages differences starting from Jan.
Monthly candle closed very bearish and current candle starting off bearish.
I think that there will be some effort to clear the pivot (white line).
**One thing I've found from trying out all the pivot and regression tools on the TOS platform is
I like drawing them myself. I'm not altogether impressed by them.
I like to think of pivots as the center of balance, between the highs and lows, such that can be observed as a sine wave on a spectrum analyzer or basic oscilloscope.
The white line I drew exemplifies the look of a natural pivot better to my eye. Also most of these tools add too much noise. (makes my head hurt)
I prefer the simplistic or very basic approach to my TA practice.
(end digression)**
Possibly see this candle go green for a bit, however I think weakness will prevail.
Looking to accumulate more UPRO at some key support levels.
With the close of the month we also get this little tid-bit:
Looking at the weekly trend lines and buying opportunity zone (green circle).
*Note these trend lines will appear later in other charts.*
I posted this earlier in the week.
This is the revised version from the above chart target nearly met and redrawn from new cup lips.
Formation is favoring the downside target.
I've also included a possible scenario for the next few weeks.
Next weekly is a comparison to S&P and ADX/DMI to MACD.
I think the ADX trend strength is moderately slowing to the bearish market.
Not a bad sign for when things reverse.
Still like to see that go to 30 on the next bull rally.
Here is another done earlier, SPX Weekly with mid-long term support lines drawn.
My Quote:
Bears need to get down to red line levels to make this near term bear trend a longer term trend.
Several daily charts.
First this shows those weekly trend lines.
Interesting here is the yellow pivot meets mid term support around the 1250.
I think we will see, at least, the green pivot line soon enough.
This daily showing the 175/200 day SMA, mentioned in last log entry.
Bulls stampede above the 200SMA, and take a break below.
Bears in control down here, as they begin pulling the rubber-band farther apart.
**This is good for the bulls in the same way fresh new nose bleed highs are good for the bears.
It presents opportunity. I have not had the desire to start scaling in on more accumulation of UPRO since last year.
More on that to come**
Last two dailies looking at volume.
One thing that is interesting is the difference in POC on separate time frames.
Take the 1yr. to the 6 month daily POC.
Taking note of the Volume POC as well and increasing sell volume,
shows weakness in the background.
I think the two VAP POC levels will attract to each other as volume increases at newer price zones.
The 126 in the above profile looks like a good area for the next high VAP POC in the 1 year daily time frame.
Also using this chart to compare an earlier Round Top formation as price has nearly met target.
On to the risk assessment section of my log.
In a nutshell:
To put it another way, they are taking about gold verses food/seeds, guns, and ammo on the intra-day thread.
In that spirit I will have to look at some gold charts as well.
**Funny thing is my crazy brothers have been stock piling ammo for years, advising that it is a better investment than gold.
And it has been going parabolic in that time frame.
I would love to be able to chart ammo prices.
(end digression)**
First the VIX. Breaking resistance on multi-levels.
May see some near term consolidation.
However latest action is indicative of further strength.
US Treasuries still off the hook.
Not sure they can keep it up for long with very low Yield.
I think some consolidation to supports before going higher.
Also note small continuation pennant still drawn in.
Looking at Volume at Price POC profile as well as lower volume.
Buy volume increasing showing still strength there.
Using this chart to compare the pennant drawn earlier as it has cleared price target.
Long term chart 20yr. Monthly TYX Treasury Yield index.
In a word, "unbelievable"
I think we'll see a bounce soon, then more decline.
When this turns around all hell is gonna break loose on the bears.
For now I remain near term bear, mid term bull.
Often like to compare TLT to the inverse Yield.
What I have been pointing out for some time now is the disconnect from declining yield compared to rising Treasuries.
The Yield is steadily dropping a lot more. I think this is also a rubber-band effect that I have illustrated in charts
from prior log entries.
Here I had earlier drawn a Symmetrical Triangle on right.
I call this the TYX Daily bearish Pennant (Hind-Sight).
Same as the one I missed on the Daily SPX (later in this log) the flag pole here is well defined
and I consider a clean formation.
OK, taking a look at gold and have noted my thoughts.
When looking at gold as a safe haven I find it difficult sometimes to understand.
One would think that a rush to buy gold in a declining market as reasonable.
However it is my observation that because safe have US Treasury/US Dollar assets increase,
the value sentiment for gold as well as all other goods and services must also decrease.
I will submit this as a thought experiment:
Say gold and stocks were put in a vacuum sealed environment and was not fed any news or fundamental change.
Also for this experiment one has to sometimes assume the subjective.
For example I am assuming that the as the value sentiment of the US Dollar increases, a 1 to -1 correlation exists
to everything from goods, services to stocks and gold. It has to. If you change the value sentiment of the currency then the
vacuum sealed gold and stocks has to change.
To further illustrate this one has only to look at the inverse relationship when comparing GLD to DXY.
Think I missed one of the golds not down dollars up there in the middle, but I've logged my point the best I can.
**Also I think a lot of people still do not quite understand that all of this is sentiment and there is nothing "intrinsic"
I've heard this mentioned and Gold, stocks , Dollar , Treasuries everything all are based on sentiment.
None of this has any intrinsic bones in it's vast body.
I think it's good to be able to wrap your arms around that. ...end digression**
Speaking of safe haven, US Dollar making nose-bleeding highs.
DXY Monthly.
I think same applies here, near term weakness, mid term strength.
DXY Weekly. No wonder gold and stocks are getting hit.
Our "risk" gage is going off the charts.
I'm going to conclude the risk section with my crazy and bizarre, one of my favorite experimental projects,
The one and only SPX/DX Risk/Dollar Value comparison spread-sheet chart. (see bottom of log for Google Docs. link)
First the S&P with spreadsheet graph, including my thoughts noted in charts.
Also the DX version:
Few more charts in this next section fall in the "other" category.
Other thoughts, charts and considerations.
As in the Daily TLT/Yield Pennant I missed.
Also here in this SPX Pennant.
I drew this earlier in the week and have included the current on the right.
Also added my prognostication or possible outcome for the week.
Just for fun, I did this in the spirit of an aspect of "Dow Theory".
A comparison of Dow to Transportation's.
I would also like to see a small bounce for the week so I can sell a lot of UPRO that I bought against one of my rules;
never buy twice in a day. I'm supposed to wait to scale in at lower prices.
I bought UPRO (my usual 20 share lot) in the morning before work then again later, unable to resist the lower price right before Fri. Close.
I will look to sell the more expensive lot at or near break-even. The idea is to scale in at small lot sizes in relation to my account size, or
simply "Do not run out of dry powder!". Sometimes easier said than done.
Here is the UPRO:
And Current Portfolio:
On the Forex front, bad news.
Breaking another rule of small long term position sizes I bought a 4th lot of Euro.
Big mistake. Started to margin call at 1.23 .
I sold the whole position in frustration just to see it rebound right after. FML.
Oh well I started this Oanda with only 200$ as an experiment to:
1) try out the Oanda platform (which I have grown quite fond of)
2) try out a scale into long term small position size strategy.
I've realized a 75% loss to 50$. I was doing great and would still be in the game,
if not for that last lot. In hind-sight I could of just took the loss on that one mistake.
The good thing about the real money opposed to paper trade is, even though it's only 200$,
the emotion is still in play. I am going to step back from Forex for awhile.
Maybe wait for more extreme downside to re-buy euro. With 50$ I will now have much reduced scaling in lot sizes.
Current Oanda:
One last Euro chart.
I will still be charting the Euro and will update log in the event of forex activity.
I'm going to conclude this log with some prior projections.
Quote:
To conclude this weeks log, I have slight bullish near term leanings.
I think the 200 day SMA is still not reversed it's poles to repel the S&P
Mid to longer term bearishness to below the 200 day SMA.
I think below the 200SMA will gives bears false confidence to then reverse things.
Watching Bond Yields to gage sentiment.
All in all, I could go either way. Nothing too conclusive with so many contrary indications.
Quote:
Here is a possible projection.
After a small "dead cat bounce",
I'm thinking we maintain current downward trend at least to below 200 day SMA.
I'd like to see price pivot below a bit before spring-boarding higher.
Other contemplations:
Wonder if id be better off with AAPL instead of UPRO.
I think I need to stick to UPRO for now, as I hope to scale in with better and better timing and position sizes.
**note: sell more than i did last time on fresh highs.**
I think we have undergone a mark-down or re-accumulation cycle.
I do not think it will be as severe as the last correction.
I think most of the global economic mess has been a known for quite some time.
I think a Greek break from the Euro has been mostly accounted for.
I think the state of the economy has been preached from high and near as a very very slow and difficult process.
I think all the crud I listen to is meant for the:
I think the Syndicate money wants a new wall of worry to climb and is in the making.
I can see another long and grueling slow low volume flat base tight channel melt up for the days to come,
after the dust settles.
Calender of events of a 1.0 or greater on the Olsen Market Quake Scale.
**Also I think a lot of people still do not quite understand that all of this is sentiment and there is nothing "intrinsic"
I've heard this mentioned and Gold, stocks , Dollar , Treasuries everything all are based on sentiment.
None of this has any intrinsic bones in it's vast body.
I think it's good to be able to wrap your arms around that. ...end digression**
Nice analysis!!
When you say there is nothing intrinsic, what do you mean? While I agree that the market is primarily driven by sentiment, I do think that there are intrinsic factors based on fundamental properties. Another thing is that the market is a reflection of everything, so if people are speculating based on some intrinsic properties for commodities, then the market outcomes would partially be based on intrinsic properties. Also, intrinsic value can be defined in two ways. Meaning, in one definition, through the perception of a user, a given asset can have varying levels of intrinsic value based on current environmental characteristics (Technology, civilization, etc.). Making this definition the subjective one. On the other hand there is the generalized definition of intrinsic value. Both definitions are based on one or both, "use-values" and "exchange values." For example, Oil definitely has intrinsic value in the sense of the general definition, from the stand point that it can be used for a number of things necessary to survive, or that it has "use values". Though for a person in a society with no need for oil because of other sources for every use, through the subjective definition of intrinsic value, oil could be deemed worthless both on a use-value, or exchange value basis for that person's subjective perception. I don't want to apply this to Treasuries or any type of currency, because those subjects in my beliefs lack the ability to have intrinsic value. This would be because it is impossible for them to have both, a "use value" and an "exchange value," they are defined only by having exchange values. Gold, which I was talking about earlier, through the subjective definition of intrinsic value, has, in this current environmental setting, the perception that it can be used to exchange for other things given financial shutdowns. Bear with me here, this is a bit tricky because through this subjective definition you see that there is the perceived "use value," but this "use value" happens to be for "exchanging" in the future. I was stating earlier in the intraday thread that this subjective intrinsic value is very likely to evaporate given a financial shutdown. Meaning, the lack of ability to trade gold for other things, or as I described earlier, the "use value" to exchange is absent. The other point I was making is that given the small distribution of probabilities that might lead to gold having a subjective intrinsic value after a financial shutdown, the subjective intrinsic value is still likely to be eliminated over time. This is what makes gold the ambiguous and difficult to understand asset, and is also why it has ripped face for as long as it has. Stocks on the other hand are a mixed bag, because they can potentially have assets with intrinsic values, therefore giving them intrinsic values also.
Sentiment though is present in every asset class or instrument and a primary driving force of the market on a day to day basis. As, it has a lot of control on volatility and the intensity in which high frequency buying/selling programs size themselves.
I think that the use of this word in the fundamental context to be mis-leading.
Plato would not be happy at all with the modern definition.
Quote:
Value that something has “in itself,” or “for its own sake,” or “as such,” or “in its own right.”
Quote:
Value investors compare a company's intrinsic value to its market value to calculate a margin of safety.
Over the years, there have been many definitions of intrinsic value. John Burr Williams, author of The Theory of Investment Value, defined it as the present value of future cash flows. Benjamin Graham defined it as "that value which is justified by the facts". Warren Buffett has tended to use Williams's definition. John Maynard Keynes looked at intrinsic value as the prospective yield or return on investment.
A perhaps less scholarly answer is simply to say that intrinsic value is the fair, or true, value of a stock. The most common ways to estimate intrinsic values are by using discounted cash flow analysis or relying on a multiple such as the P/E ratio, though asset-based valuations are commonly used for commodity producing firms or holding companies. Value investors believe that market prices trend along with a stock's intrinsic value over time.
Value investors strive to purchase assets trading for less than their intrinsic value, which affords them a margin of safety. The bigger the discount to intrinsic value (or, put another way, the larger the margin of safety), the more attractive the purchase price.
Regarding your original post. I agree with the first paragraph, but got lost after that.
Although demand is still increasing, oil dependence is very slowly waning.
However, I think eventually we'll be driving Jetson's cars and filling our tanks with water too.
Quote:
Oil will have an intrinsic value deemed somewhat important for a lot longer. Also there will be a lot more sustainability to oil pricing. Right now oil is correlating heavily to China. The one thing with oil however, is that this intrinsic value slowly, very slowly decays over time as technology severely increases. There will always be a market for oil and there will always be somewhat of a presence of demand, even though I am bearish on the very very long term, but macro flat on the regular long term..
It's just that to me the whole word intrinsic or real value implies a fundamental perspective that is something other than what it is in itself.
I think it's use in the esoteric sense is confusing. Price is intrinsic.
Quote:
Gold on the other hand has no intrinsic value that holds given a financial collapse for an overwhelming percentage of outcomes, and suboutcomes!
I find that real value in the context of trading to be an illusion.
I felt I needed to log, as a reminder that intrinsic value is irrelevant, to a trader, IMO
save options the difference between the underlying stock's price and the strike price(different animal).
Intrinsic or real fair value, is an illusion IMO because I will say that it's price that you are willing to pay is it's intrinsic value.
Take for instance the value of the US Dollar is not worth the price of the paper that it's printed with.IMO.
However it has perceived value and will continue to have intrinsic value “in itself,” so long as you and I believe. ( I wanna believe)
You see my point?
I will submit an analogy.
I want to sell a car. I added it's bluebook plus some added parts and want to sell it for 5000$.
The only offer I got was for 4000$ and I eventually took it. I will argue that the sale price 4000$
is it's intrinsic value.
If a comet hits the earth your gold will still have intrinsic value.
Everything has a price.
I may give a few seeds or food for someones shiny rocks, in the possible event a financial system is put back in place.
But they ain't getting none of my rounds of ammo.
To answer to your last post.
I mean as in noun. no thing. In the context of trading. Not to be confused with in a discussion and used to delineate between it's current price and some other perceived value.
Quote:
When you say there is nothing intrinsic, what do you mean?
Yes I agree and that it would be the price someone is willing to pay.
Quote:
I do think that there are intrinsic factors based on fundamental properties
Here again your losing me. If you mean, ie. the price at the pump that also changes day to day based on the price of oil, then again yes the price
you pay at the pump or the groceries you buy at the register, is it's intrinsic value.
Quote:
Another thing is that the market is a reflection of everything, so if people are speculating based on some intrinsic properties for commodities, then the market outcomes would partially be based on intrinsic properties. Also, intrinsic value can be defined in two ways. Meaning, in one definition, through the perception of a user, a given asset can have varying levels of intrinsic value based on current environmental characteristics (Technology, civilization, etc.). Making this definition the subjective one. On the other hand there is the generalized definition of intrinsic value. Both definitions are based on one or both, "use-values" and "exchange values." For example, Oil definitely has intrinsic value in the sense of the general definition, from the stand point that it can be used for a number of things necessary to survive, or that it has "use values". Though for a person in a society with no need for oil because of other sources for every use, through the subjective definition of intrinsic value, oil could be deemed worthless both on a use-value, or exchange value basis for that person's subjective perception.
The rest is a blur to me. I am sorry I am lost as to what your trying to get across here.
Especially the buy/sell programs I have no clue what they have to do with this discussion.
Quote:
I don't want to apply this to Treasuries or any type of currency, because those subjects in my beliefs lack the ability to have intrinsic value. This would be because it is impossible for them to have both, a "use value" and an "exchange value," they are defined only by having exchange values. Gold, which I was talking about earlier, through the subjective definition of intrinsic value, has, in this current environmental setting, the perception that it can be used to exchange for other things given financial shutdowns. Bear with me here, this is a bit tricky because through this subjective definition you see that there is the perceived "use value," but this "use value" happens to be for "exchanging" in the future. I was stating earlier in the intraday thread that this subjective intrinsic value is very likely to evaporate given a financial shutdown. Meaning, the lack of ability to trade gold for other things, or as I described earlier, the "use value" to exchange is absent. The other point I was making is that given the small distribution of probabilities that might lead to gold having a subjective intrinsic value after a financial shutdown, the subjective intrinsic value is still likely to be eliminated over time. This is what makes gold the ambiguous and difficult to understand asset, and is also why it has ripped face for as long as it has. Stocks on the other hand are a mixed bag, because they can potentially have assets with intrinsic values, therefore giving them intrinsic values also.
Sentiment though is present in every asset class or instrument and a primary driving force of the market on a day to day basis. As, it has a lot of control on volatility and the intensity in which high frequency buying/selling programs size themselves.
Thanks for the good reply mark. I definitely see your meaning now, and understand it. The reason I am under a different impression, which I now see why, is that I do not consider intrinsic to be related to values that will be payed, necessarily.
"Intrinsic or real fair value, is an illusion IMO because I will say that it's price that you are willing to pay is it's intrinsic value."
Week ends Up From 1325.66 to 1342.84, 17.18 handles or 1.30% .
Recent monthly percentages from Jan.
On with the charts.
Monthly candle update looking more bullish. First I am reflecting on this past chart.
My thoughts from prior log entries.
Quote:
Current monthly candle sitting atop key pivot.
I think a pennant is a very possible formation to develop.
I am going to stick with that assessment of the monthly that a continuation pennant likely to fill out, for now.(purple triangle)
First the 4yr. weekly with trend lines drawn for reference.
Looking at the breakout from first pennant and potential for forming a second pennant off same lower support and upper resistance (red lines)
Again I am looking at past log entries on the weekly.
Quote:
1 Yr weekly Broadening Formation. Could also end up a flag. Waiting for more confirmation candles.
Looking for upside target for Broadening Pattern.
Current 1yr Weekly.
I think price will bounce within this large pennant over the longer term.
Also worth noting upside target on this prior Weekly Round Top chart.
Short of it's downside target. A break and close above yellow cup bottom would signal confirmation.
From prior log Entry.
Quote:
Daily charts clench my bullish near-mid term outlook.
I was expecting a test for the 1250 area.
However the 200 day SMA rubber-band snapped back enough to indicate bearish correction on hold.
Bears not taking it down below the 200 and running is strong evidence the Bulls will stampede above the 200.
Very Bullish daily charts, breaking through key mid-term pivot.(purple line)
Nice clean break above daily pivot.(purple line)
Next off is the popular Inverted Head and Shoulders.
Concerns on the obvious nature of the pattern led me to this statement.
Quote:
I am reminded of the old slapstick routine: "If you know that I know then you'll do the opposite but then you'll know that and likely reverse that ......."
I think a formation being "obvious" is over-thinking the pattern and that there is market psychology behind the formation, pattern or schematic.
I think some work better than others depending on market conditions and that
all such devises are subject to the world of probability and statistical mathematics. In this way,
I believe that these tools are just a way to remove some risk by gaining an edge.
This is my original chart on the formation.
Done on the Hourly for the more defined features.
Also did this on the smaller HS.
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A possible projection for shoulder in dotted purple.
Updated version:
Looking back at this noting the Rising Wedge (yellow lines)
I think price will travel within new near term channel (red lines) and
possibly form Rising Wedge (green lines)
Volume not much out of the ordinary. Somewhat increasing buy volume.
Risk sentiment easing a bit. My new theory on US Dollar/Treasury safe haven assets is bullish.
I am raising my TLT downside targets a bit. I think market strength will reflect in weaker Treasury Bond price for the near term.
However I think it will be nominal weakness, compared to market change and short lived.
Yield bounced off 2.5% for the 30yr. marking a breaking point for investor interest.
I think Yields will bounce in the near term but continue their slow decay while Bond price declines in the near term
but will remain strong along with the US Dollar. I think the US Dollar strength while being near term bearish for the market
is in actuality a good thing for the economy and Dollar value sentiment will eventually fade into stronger market fundamental sentiment.
VIX simmering down.
TLT daily looking slightly bearish, but not as weak as the market strength.
Probably bounce off that 175 SMA. (dash)
Also I've been looking at the Dollar Gold correlation and appears to me gold may lead the way.
SPX vrs. GLD
US Dollar index DXY vrs. GLD.
DX weekly looking heavy.
Daily as well.
Few charts from my experimental SPX/DX Risk/Dollar Value comparison spread-sheet chart.
Break here coincides with current market trend.
S&P with spreadsheet graph.
DXY with spreadsheet graph, starting to turn inverse.
Current Portfolio.
In conclusion let me just say that now I'm off to vote up in the weekly poll.
I think pendulum is swinging back the way of the bull, and will continue to stampede north of the 200 day SMA.
Calender of events of a 1.0 or greater on the Olsen Market Quake Scale.
Week ends down slightly from 1342.84 to 1335.02 , -7.82 handles or -0.58% .
Recent monthly percentages from Jan.
Not much change in the monthly. Still slightly bullish spinning top holding support above long term pivots.
Also looking at where a good spot for a pennant would be (Red Resistance and purple support lines) mentioned in last log entry.
This monthly chart emphasizing prior similar candle-stick patterns.
Various weekly charts to look at.
This is with the monthly trend lines left in for comparison.
Next weekly with re-drawn trend lines.
Slightly bearish candle however above major mid-term pivot (yellow line).
Progress in the Rising Wedge in (yellow lines).
Last weekly chart done earlier in the week.
Comparing to the Deliberation formation as well as Round Bottom measurements.
Daily chart showing a breakdown in the Rising Wedge.
This shows wedge redrawn and still watching the two important rising moving averages.
Looking at the progress of the Inverted Head and Shoulders.
Very Bullish IMO above neckline.
Also got some charts done eairlier in the week.
My possible projection.
Few hourly charts.
This showing support above HS neckline.
Comparing Inverted Head and Shoulders to the Whycoff Schematic.
Mapping out targets for recent formations.
Volume at Price POC on the weekly chart.
Also declining weekly sell volume.
This 9 month daily VAP profile with price below POC.
And finally looking at price above the 3 month daily VAP POC.
Assessment this week view on Risk is still maintaining continued caution.
Weekly VIX still settling down overall
Same on the Daily.
Safe haven US Treasury still holding new higher trading range.
I am easing my bearish view on TLT. I think safe haven assets will remain strong along with a rising market.
Looking at few possible formations. Continuation Pennant or Descending Triangle.
Looks more Descending Triangle on this weekly chart.
As well as the Daily.
30 year Yield showing a Symmetrical Triangle or bearish continuation Pennant.
Market again seemed to bounce on approach to 2.5% Bond Yield floor. This time at 2.7% area.
Another chart done earlier in the week, a possible projection.
On the US Dollar index DXY, looking at bullish continuation flag.
On the Experimental SPX/DX Risk/Dollar Value comparison spread-sheet and chart of mine.
I was talking to my math wiz friend, same one that helped me with my spread-sheet before.
I was explaining to him what I was trying for, and he explained to me that there was already a mathematical term for what I was trying to achieve.
He also showed me a far more intelligent method. By what he called "normalize" we multiplied the DX and S&P. Also dividing by 100 to make the number not so high up there. After comparing the two methods and the graphs they produced, I was satisfied by the results of the new method.
This S&P Daily chart represents the S&P adjusted or "normalized" to the US Dollar index (DXY).
I am marking in the break of resistance and the new support on the graph that represents the support on the Inverted Head and Shoulders neckline.
Euro futures /E7 Daily.
From last log entry:
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Planning to scale out of some of the more expensive UPRO lots soon.
Sold some UPRO for insurance or damage control. Trying to unload the more expensive lots on stronger days/weeks.
I was able to unload on the recent highs lot marked with red box. Not much profit, however reducing exposiour
allows dry powder in the event of more downside. I think I'll wait for the possibility of anything below 60$
other wise I am satisfied with my current lots.
Current Portfolio.
In conclusion to my log, I think we bounce from the Inverted Head and Shoulders neckline.
I think it will coincide with TYX bouncing from the low 2.7%/2.6% 30 year Treasury Bond Yield levels.
I think S&P will rise for test of upper Rising Wedge Resistance.
Calender of events of a 1.0 or greater on the Olsen Market Quake Scale.
Week ends up from 1335.02 to 1362.16 , 27.14 handles or 2.03% .
Recent monthly percentages from Jan.
I've got lots of monthly charts with closing candles to log.
Starting with the S&P Monthly.
Bullish candle over half of previous candle constitutes a tweezer bottom.
Looking like next high likely to be the 1450. Lot more upside potential than most people think IMO.
I'm going to stick to my previous outlook on the monthly charts.
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Current monthly candle sitting atop key pivot.
I think a pennant is a very possible formation to develop.
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I am going to stick with that assessment of the monthly that a continuation pennant likely to fill out, for now.(purple triangle)
Also want to look at this previous chart.
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Looking mainly at this very long term Symmetrical Triangle and Inverted Head and Shoulders.
Current price has penetrated triangle tested long term resistance and settled atop triangle or HS Neckline. Note also how price has steadily moved above throw-back areas in white dotted lines.
Progress in the monthly Rising Wedge.
Previous chart.
I've got my TOS set up with this Round Top/Bottom formation drawing set.
Saved measurements on the current Monthly Round Top in the TOS drawing set.
Next off I want to bring up some prior weekly charts.
Upside target met.
and this one.
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Also worth noting upside target on this prior Weekly Round Top chart.
Short of it's downside target. A break and close above yellow cup bottom would signal confirmation.
This is this revised version.
Some other weekly drawing sets:
I'm favoring a pennant or possible right shoulder developing as price consolidates after the recent run.
However a break above long term key pivot (blue line), would put price in a more bullish trading range.
closer look:
Last weekly chart always looking at the ADX trend strength and DMI.
I see MACD positive divergence and expect to see a rise in the ADX soon.
Now some more near term Daily charts.
Going to start off with a retraction. I found an error, not sure what I was thinking or how it happened.
I know the breakout point in this formation is the subtraction for downside target.
Downside target was met on this formation.
Some current TOS daily drawing sets.
This is just some key levels.
Yellow lines adjusted for the downside break of the daily Rising Wedge.
Everyone have a good week.
