Daytrading the mini-Dow - Page 26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stock King 

Your charts are starting to look Ichibombish... 

 

You're becoming a beast 

 

I wish!

I'm really enjoying this method of trading. I say enjoying because it really has taken a load of stress off from trading for me. With a lot of subjectivity removed and just following the line of references, I can easily go in and out without giving too much thought too it. I had one trade in /ES today which is an A-UP trade. It didn't reach my PT and was stopped out. I had moved my stop up to reduce risk and it looks like it was a good move. /ES took -2.5 from me today.

/CL gave me another nice day today, but not before a loss. I went on A-UP trade @ 104.35 which eventually got stopped out at 103.96 for a loss of -39. Soon after, crude made a C-DOWN along with break of pivot ranges. This lets me know that the odds are strongly on my favor. Additionally, the /DX chart gave me a nice confirmation as well of an impending sell-off in crude. I mustered up my courage and went short two contracts risking 4.5% on this trade. Because I also have a position in /ES, this is one of the few times I trade with my entire account in play. Short entry was at 103.83 and first one out at 103.26 and second one trail stopped out at 103.04. Later on the day, I had another trade (not ACD but a signal that I trust a lot) where I scalped an additional 11 ticks for a total of +90 ticks on crude today.

Quote:

Originally Posted by IchibomB 

Badass JLC! 

 

How long have you followed Mark Fisher? 

I've known about this for a while but have only been a casual observant since I never thought about trading crude (which is what it's known best for). It wasn't until recently that I actually read the book and applied his philosophy. Good thing for me is that this is a very simple way of approaching the market. There are a few layers as well that I can probably add on in the near future.

I love roller coasters...but not in the market. Before I talk about how much losses I incurred today, I need to point out again how TIME has again saved me from losing more than what I had. Entry was on A-UP for /CL today @ 103.08. It began ranging within ~40 ticks for the next 30-40minutes. A little bit before 30min, I called it quits on the trade and exited at a loss of  -11 ticks. Lo and behold within the next few minute, /CL sold off after that to a level way past my initial stop (a potential loss of 44 ticks).

After that, I begin looking for a C-DOWN. I made an entry at 102.51 and that was the mistake of the day. Price did not stay below C-DOWN with enough TIME for this trade to be strong. Price then reversed back up and took me out eventually for a loss of -50 ticks. After seeing a quick down and up move like that, I decided to just SOH and anticipate a ranging day.

Interestingly enough, /DX gave a heads up that the A-UP in the morning was not going to work. This morning, /DX had a clean Failed-A-UP and began selling off, going through A-DOWN and its pivot range with strength. At the same time, /CL made its A-UP but did not go anywhere. It just hung around the area before selling off. /DX gave the heads up that the A-UP was going to fail.

Shortly before the close of the market, I took a look to see if there are any potential set-ups (not ACD. It was done when both A and C failed for me).  

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobK 

 

 

 

Would you agree simpler is better? I see some charts so cluttered I don't know how they keep everything straight. Stocks I just use some SMA's and options I just go with the trend. Futures I try and let the price come to me although the last week has been tough.

 

You and Ichi have perked my interest so I need to check out Mr. Fisher. Thanks.

To me, simpler is better. To others it might not. Everyone has different style and personality after all.

Simplicity is best for me because it gives me less conflicting signals. If I have too many things going on, I'd have something telling me to go long and another telling me to go short. Others who can utilize it properly (I could never) will like that better.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobK 

Hey J, what's up bud?

 

I'm short 6C @ 1.0020

Hey bob,

All is well. Just working on some new trading stuff and back testing a lot. I'm making some big changes ... or actually just revisiting my old forex trading method and applying it to what I have learned trading futures. Also been reading a lot of Dalton's stuff on market profile.

Hope everything is going great

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobK 

 

Guess what J? I am going to try and trade the Mini Dow only. I have found other buy sell indicators from the norm and I will add these to my arsenal and continue to work with Ichi. Ichi is trying to get me to think for myself and it's hard for me to do. lol

 

I hope you find more time to keep us in the loop. I can only imagine how busy you must be.

Good to hear Bob and good luck to you!

I've been refining my trading to require as little screen time as possible. My goal in trading is so in the future I don't have to work at a job, so sitting in front of the computer all day while trading will still somewhat be kind of like a "job". This puts me back into trading a higher time frame and so far I grew fond of the daily setups in the futures market. One thing I am sticking to now is inside bars. After an extended move resulting in a wide body daily bar, if the next day is an inside bar, that pretty much means price is just consolidating after a huge move. The goal is to trade the breakout of the consolidation or "base". Price rallies then "base" and continues rallying or reverses. The "base" is an area where price has found a balance between buyers and sellers and it consolidates as each decide played a game of tug of war. I'm positioning myself to catch the winner of the game. So try looking at /YM daily and for every inside bar you see, imagine placing a buy/sell stop above and below the bar with stop loss on the other side. There are many ways for money management and one that I particularly like is half off at 1:1 and the other half trails the low of each daily bar or move to BE and ride it as far (or little) as possible. I am also planning to further refine this with filters such as previous days bar formation, day of the week (option expiration day, etc), the location, and so on...  

I've also looked into gap trading for /ES. The euro gap trade has been one of my favorite but the opportunity only comes once a week. So far the hit rate on it has been a little bit over ~70% with ~40% of gap fill being potentials for extended moves. This is using 2x gap range as stop for 2:1 risk/reward, and the trade must be closed out by the end of Monday's session. All of this so far is just based on the gap itself. I haven't tried factoring in things such as which week of the month, Friday's candlestick formation, direction of gap, etc. Basically what I do for the euro gap, I'm trying to translate over to /ES.

Here's that weekly 6E gap. I was in a little bit late at 1.289.

What was the reason for the short, if I may ask?

6E gap trade loss of -50 ticks. Oh well Until next week. A losing gap trade has a 50% chance of half fill, and this week's case it did. Perhaps in the future I will shape my trading method around this factor.

I decided to skip the /ES gap trade today for a myriad of reasons. Some of which includes:

• Mondays have 53% chance of a gap fill
• Friday closed below Monday's pivot leads to 48% chance of gap fill long
• The gap range exceeded 10pts. Caution of a possible runaway gap
• The bulls and bears have been in a statemate for a good part of last week. A huge gap could potentially provide force for the bears.
• Prior to this session, the gap has filled three times in a row.

Two potential swing trades today. Cotton and loonie.

This will be my first commodities trade...and in cotton. A little bit nervous with this but sometimes you just gotta do what you gotta do The IB on 5/3 gave virtually no drawdown and if trailed by high of day, it would've made some serious bank. Obviously not every trade will be like this, but good to know it can happen.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobK 

 

J, why? Maybe you just like a challenge?

 

Good luck on your venture into the unknown. I really enjoy just sticking with the Mini Dow.

It's as I mentioned before, I need to trade without being on screen too much.

No ES gap today so no trade there.

6C is triggered short and in the money for the moment. Will trail this by highs of each bar.

CT is in a drawdown. Today formed a pinbar which could be detrimental to my long position. I have stop loss below the pinbar with an order to short as well if it breaks.