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Enterprising Value Investor Rules To Live By

post #1 of 19
Thread Starter 
  1. Focus on the Intrinsic Value of Companies – This is by far the most important rule for the value investor. Intrinsic value can be defined as “the actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value may or may not be the same as the current market value.” Value investors look at the fundamentals of a company NOT THE TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF A STOCK. And as history has shown, value investors outperform technical traders in the long run. The key here is to buy stocks at levels that are below the level of intrinsic value for a particular company. This not only provides a margin of safety but also the opportunity for gains when the market corrects itself.

 

  1. Practice Emotional Stability – You do not need to be overly intelligent to be a good investor, but you do need strong emotional intelligence. Very few investors have made substantial money by getting caught up in market “swings” (although there are many who have lost money). As a value investor you should already be buying a stock at a level that is below what the company is actually worth, so if the stock goes down, all that means is that you can now buy even more of this company at a better price! Do not sell just because the price has dipped if the price of a stock is still below the value of the company. On the other side of things, just because the price has gone up does not mean that you should sell! A value investor should only sell once the price of the stock has surpassed the value of the company. So if the price has gone up but the price of the stock is still below the value of the company don’t sell! There is still some money to be made. If you don’t think you will be able to handle this don’t invest in the stock market.

 

A great example of not having emotional control comes from “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham. In the Spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton, one of the great geniuses of all time, sensed that the stock market was getting out of hand and dumped all of his South Sea Company stocks (one of the hottest stocks in England at the time). He pocketed a 100% gain totalling 7000 pounds. However, months later, by getting swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price, and subsequently lost about 20,000 pounds (which is over 3 million by today’s standards) :S. Now Newton wasn’t an idiot. But he did not have the emotional discipline that is necessary to be an intelligent investor. So if you’ve failed so far, it’s not because you’re stupid (probably not anyway), it’s because you haven’t developed the emotional intelligence required to be a successful investor. So control your actions! Don’t be a sheep. Be the wolf.

 

  1. Avoid Permanent Losses – Investing is not just about making money, it’s also about not losing money. Enterprising value investors outperform the majority of other investors because they do not lose money. If an investment does not offer an adequate amount of safety of principle (i.e. buying below intrinsic value etc.) then it is not an investment. It is a speculative operation, a big no-no in the value investing world. Most other value investors will say that a true value investor is not concerned with outperforming benchmarks. However, taking my own little spin on things, I believe that over the long term, an enterprising investor should use benchmarking tools (such as the performance of the market indexes) to evaluate their performance, or else there really is no point in putting in the time and effort into researching companies, especially if you are not going to outperform the market in the long run.

 

  1. Diversify Less – Today all you will hear from the majority of investors is to diversify. By now you should know that I’m not a fan of it (check out my article on diversification) because if you’re already using a value oriented approach to investing diversification will actually limit your gains, as a value oriented approach already provides a margin of safety. There is no point in using two techniques which both provide greater safety. It’s like wearing two life-jackets when you go boating. There’s not really a point in it. SO I’m actually going to go AGAINST Benjamin Graham here and tell you to diversify less, but only if you are willing to put in the time and effort to research the companies that you invest in (or just listen to the stock picks that I give you :P). If you’re not willing to put in the time and effort then yes, you should diversify. But as an enterprising investor, diversification will not even be a part of your vocabulary.

 

  1. Continue to Learn – This is a no brainer. If you’re not willing to continue to learn then don’t become an enterprising investor. You are always going to need to learn about new industries and new companies. You’re going to do a ton of reading, especially on various company’s financial statements. And if you don’t understand something in them, then you’re going to have to figure that out. You’re going to lean about different industries and how they operate, what their average profit margin is, and any threats that may hinder the industry in the future. And you’re going to love every waking minute of it.

Stay tuned for my next stock pick which should be posted in the next few weeks. I know it’s been a while I’m sorry! J

Twitter – JustinG101

post #2 of 19

I tried reading about different companies for a bit but it's really hard to figure out what's looking good and what's not... most would talk about how great things are going and rave things about the sector they are in.

 

How are you not allowing the 'sweet-talk' influence your decision making?

post #3 of 19
Thread Starter 

That is a great question. And the simple answer is that I do my homework. I don't just listen to news reports concerning the company. The most important thing one should do when evaluating companies is to check thier auditted financial statements. You would then take certain key ratios such as EPS, P/E, Inventory turnover etc. and compare them either to other companies in the same industry or the industry averages and look at whether it is performing better or worse. I then double check things, like checking thier suppliers and whoever thier end-users are. Sometimes I even e-mail or phone the CFO to talk with them about anything that I have a concern about or anything that I think looks suspicious. I guess basically what I do to not be "sweet-talked" is put the company through very strict and strigent tests. If it fails then I don't invest. Of course the most important thing that I look at is whether or not it is undervalued and why.

 

And yes no company will do anything but tell you the good things in thier news releases and such. Lol I have yet to see a company say "Ya things aren't looking so good."

 

Did I answer your question?
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by FuzzyAason View Post

I tried reading about different companies for a bit but it's really hard to figure out what's looking good and what's not... most would talk about how great things are going and rave things about the sector they are in.

 

How are you not allowing the 'sweet-talk' influence your decision making?



 

post #4 of 19

That is some hardcore fundamental analysis. Props man.
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Justo View Post

That is a great question. And the simple answer is that I do my homework. I don't just listen to news reports concerning the company. The most important thing one should do when evaluating companies is to check thier auditted financial statements. You would then take certain key ratios such as EPS, P/E, Inventory turnover etc. and compare them either to other companies in the same industry or the industry averages and look at whether it is performing better or worse. I then double check things, like checking thier suppliers and whoever thier end-users are. Sometimes I even e-mail or phone the CFO to talk with them about anything that I have a concern about or anything that I think looks suspicious. I guess basically what I do to not be "sweet-talked" is put the company through very strict and strigent tests. If it fails then I don't invest. Of course the most important thing that I look at is whether or not it is undervalued and why.

 

And yes no company will do anything but tell you the good things in thier news releases and such. Lol I have yet to see a company say "Ya things aren't looking so good."

 

Did I answer your question?
 



 



 

post #5 of 19

Thank you for enlightening me (:

I really appreciate this article!

post #6 of 19
Thread Starter 


No problem! If you have any other questions feel free to contact me!
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by FuzzyAason View Post

Thank you for enlightening me (:

I really appreciate this article!



 

post #7 of 19

Something led me to this question... When the stock prices drops, you would stand by it since you've made ample research and believe it should be able to turn the tide/survive the bearish signs. 

 

But what are the kinds of sign that will signal 'abandon ship'? By past records whether you feel it has gone beyond the point of return (breaking beyond support level by certain %) or comparing it to other similar stocks in the same sector... etc.

 

Because the book by Graham said that the defensive investor should not be bothered by the fluctuations since they are not traders but he also mentioned that all trades should have an exit plan and I would very much prefer to pick up various styles from experienced investor and modify them to my liking...

 

Sorry if I cannot phrase it well enough!

post #8 of 19
Thread Starter 

 

That is a great question. No wI'm not really a trader, so I would only sell something when it reaches a point above what I think the company is worth, or I fund something much better to put my money in. I do not look at the support level.

 

Ha I do understand what you're saying. If you're taking a value investing approach to investing youwould only exit a company if some part of thier fundamentals have changed for the worse. I.E. Maybe they have taken on too much debt, they have been losing market share over the past few years since you've invested in them, they start turning over thier managers quickly, there is unusual insider selling of shares,..... something along those lines. But just because a company has a poor quarter does not necessarily mean that you should abandon ship. Always think long term and play by the short term.

 

Hope that answers your question!


 

Quote:
Originally Posted by FuzzyAason View Post

Something led me to this question... When the stock prices drops, you would stand by it since you've made ample research and believe it should be able to turn the tide/survive the bearish signs. 

 

But what are the kinds of sign that will signal 'abandon ship'? By past records whether you feel it has gone beyond the point of return (breaking beyond support level by certain %) or comparing it to other similar stocks in the same sector... etc.

 

Because the book by Graham said that the defensive investor should not be bothered by the fluctuations since they are not traders but he also mentioned that all trades should have an exit plan and I would very much prefer to pick up various styles from experienced investor and modify them to my liking...

 

Sorry if I cannot phrase it well enough!



 

post #9 of 19

Yes! You did... So a value investor only judge from the fundamentals and if the management has changed (alongside the fall of stock price).

 

Mmmm... (1) is there any book that you can recommend that has similar philosophy as your own? I'm kinda greedy to learn a few kinds of styles and markets (currency, commodity, bond, stock).... I'm hoping that it will help me see the inter-relationship and stuffs like that. But it seems that value investing requires more 'insights' and I'd like love to ply the trades with something more analytical.

 

Oh yes, (2) reading up on company's financial statement... I would compare it to the fellow competitors in the sector. Is that all I can do?

post #10 of 19
Thread Starter 


Two great books that are vital for any investor is "Security Analysis" by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd and "The Injtelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham. They will give you a good look at value investing. As for analyzing the financial statements you could also look at the company from an owners perspective. "If I were an owner of this business how much would I be making." Then base your valuation on that number. Personally I would never probably never touch a company with a P/E ratio greater than 15 (even 15 is quite high), regardless of the industry that the company was in. You can also look for little hidden things, such as whether the company is stating lease agreements on it's financial sheets and any off balance sheet arrangments that the company has entered into. Also just look for any threats that would face the business.
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by FuzzyAason View Post

Yes! You did... So a value investor only judge from the fundamentals and if the management has changed (alongside the fall of stock price).

 

Mmmm... (1) is there any book that you can recommend that has similar philosophy as your own? I'm kinda greedy to learn a few kinds of styles and markets (currency, commodity, bond, stock).... I'm hoping that it will help me see the inter-relationship and stuffs like that. But it seems that value investing requires more 'insights' and I'd like love to ply the trades with something more analytical.

 

Oh yes, (2) reading up on company's financial statement... I would compare it to the fellow competitors in the sector. Is that all I can do?



 

post #11 of 19

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post #12 of 19
Thread Starter 

So for some reason your message is not coming up on this site! But I can read the response in my e-mail lol. I will definitely check out "The Warren Buffet Way" (probably won't be for at least a month writing both CSC exams next week and the week after but I definitely by September). Lol and yes I agree with you whole-heartedly any investor needs at least a little accounting background for the quantitative side of things. Fischer as well hey? I will look into that.

 

The qualitative side of things can also be very important, although qualitative aspects are much harder to measure, and I'm positive you already know that. :)

 

How long have you been investing for?

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by JTA View Post

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post #13 of 19

In my own theory (or not)...(1) the Bear market is the best time for value investors to go in. If he made a decent amount with the 'normal' recuperation... he could sell it for a tidy profit or just let it stay as it is.

The 'tough' part is to determine which company would survive the ordeal but I believe most company would... I need to study about the bear market. And I noticed the huge influence T.A. had on the market just because everyone who is playing the market knows of it.

 

(2) What's your exit plans? From what I've seen so far... I cannot really determine. Only when the company's management and intrinsic value changes?

Benjamin Graham's book are really intriguing, don't really feel that it drains my mind but takes me along the history lane and watch how different scenario unfolds.

 

post #14 of 19
Thread Starter 

Definintely the best time to invest. Even just looking at this past week there a more and more companies that are starting to have attractive prices as the market falls. I also beleive most companies would as well. Usually within a year or two they should be able to turn it around (whatever it is) so long as thier fundamentals don't change.

 

My personal exit plans are 1) I sell when the stock becomes overvalued. I sometimes sell just slightly above what I think the company is worth, but other times I would sell 10-15% above the value of the company, just to see a little bit of those speculative gains. 2) I would sell if I found something more attractive and I am still able to pull my money out without loss. 3) If the fundamentals of the company change I would get out of there. So yes if the intrinsic value changed to a level that was below what the price was I would get rid of it. Not necessarily if there was a change in management. Depends who they are.

 

Ha well they shouldn't be too draining. You don't really need super complex formulas and derivatives to evaluate companies. All you really need is adding, subtracting, multiplication, division and common sense. :)

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by FuzzyAason View Post

In my own theory (or not)...(1) the Bear market is the best time for value investors to go in. If he made a decent amount with the 'normal' recuperation... he could sell it for a tidy profit or just let it stay as it is.

The 'tough' part is to determine which company would survive the ordeal but I believe most company would... I need to study about the bear market. And I noticed the huge influence T.A. had on the market just because everyone who is playing the market knows of it.

 

(2) What's your exit plans? From what I've seen so far... I cannot really determine. Only when the company's management and intrinsic value changes?

Benjamin Graham's book are really intriguing, don't really feel that it drains my mind but takes me along the history lane and watch how different scenario unfolds.

 



 

post #15 of 19

I'm glad you got the post-I tried to edit it to add a fancy little emoticon, only to delete  the entire thing and give up.

 

I've been hooked in for about 8-9 yrs now, I guess.  My foray into the markets actually started with learning about real estate, mainly long term income properties.  I was attracted to the cyclical nature of markets, and never looked back.  I actually focus much of my 'market time' on short term strategies, trying to ride the waves of the markets with puts and calls.  I can see how they work together; even a successful short term trader is going to want to invest those gains for the long haul, someday. ;)

 

Justo, I tried my hardest to find out what the CSC exam was with no luck, just many different things.  Is it a financial certification of some sort?

 

Best,

JTA

post #16 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by FuzzyAason View Post I need to study about the bear market.
 
Your wish is the markets command it seems!  Live experience, though it can be painful at times, if you are in it, is very beneficial.  My take on the bull and bear, simply is that in the bull mkt, there is 1) an optimistic perception of future business 2) a perception of value 3) not much panic, if there are quick corrections, short lived.  In the bear market, I think you are right in your assumption about TA, because 1 & 2 are out the window, and 3 is just the reverse.  Everyone wants out, as quick as possible.  What I have seen on charts of individual companies, is that your trend lines, indicators and oscillators are worthless, the 'logic' that made them 'work' is not working because of the increased volatility, and because the price action is mostly "illogical", and based on fear and maybe confusion. That is confusing, I cant think of a quick, better way to put it. 
 
What I have seen is this, look for 50% levels from each rally; your top and your secondary correction are important.  At the top, you dont know it is a top, but as time goes on, you are at an important 50% mark, that first rally brings the second lower top; this is where you would normally start your trend line (second higher low if it were a bull env.)  All it is going to really do is give you an idea of an area where there will most likely be consolidation, a breather to judge the short term conditions.  Not for bottom picking, since it is futile anyway.  But, with the quick decline in market value, there are value opportunities that will come up. 


 

post #17 of 19
Thread Starter 

That's awesome that you used to be in real estate. What made you switch over?

 

Wow puts and calls that's awesome. I'm more of a longer term investor, although I will sell immediately once the company becomse overvalued. Lol my apologizes yes the CSC is the Canadian Securities Certificate. I would need it should I decide to go work at an investment firm/bank somewhere and "legally" advise people about investing/handling money etc. Although in my personal opinion I haven't really learned a whole lot from it yet, and there are some ideas in the texts that I do not agree with.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by JTA View Post

I'm glad you got the post-I tried to edit it to add a fancy little emoticon, only to delete  the entire thing and give up.

 

I've been hooked in for about 8-9 yrs now, I guess.  My foray into the markets actually started with learning about real estate, mainly long term income properties.  I was attracted to the cyclical nature of markets, and never looked back.  I actually focus much of my 'market time' on short term strategies, trying to ride the waves of the markets with puts and calls.  I can see how they work together; even a successful short term trader is going to want to invest those gains for the long haul, someday. ;)

 

Justo, I tried my hardest to find out what the CSC exam was with no luck, just many different things.  Is it a financial certification of some sort?

 

Best,

JTA



 

post #18 of 19

*Net Income Data-Yahoo Finance

*Bond Yield Data-http://www.jdsannuities.com/us_treasury_yields

*All other relevant data-Edgars

 

I had to create one and post it Justo! =)  I love the simplicity.  The CAT tables are not from the book, I created this one. The IV calculation concept is.  Lets hope there is much discussion, hopefully we can all learn something new from it. Best.

post #19 of 19
Thread Starter 

Nice I love it! I'm totally going to check out the book for some more insight. And I'm assuming the intrinsic value formula that you are using is (EPS*(8.5 + 2*average growth)*4.48)/2.39? I used 10 year corporate bonds as the denominator.

 

I noticed you used treasury bond yields is that what is used in the book?

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by JTA View Post

*Net Income Data-Yahoo Finance

*Bond Yield Data-http://www.jdsannuities.com/us_treasury_yields

*All other relevant data-Edgars

 

I had to create one and post it Justo! =)  I love the simplicity.  The CAT tables are not from the book, I created this one. The IV calculation concept is.  Lets hope there is much discussion, hopefully we can all learn something new from it. Best.



 

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