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Mpr's Price Action Plays

post #1 of 20
Thread Starter 

Hey all,

Figured I'd post this to help out with the community.

I only trade options, but this thread can be used to trade the stock or ETF as well.

I don't use FA, only t/a primarily studying price action. (Channels, S/R lines... etc.)

yada yada yada....


Hopefully this can be a place where we come together and make good $ through successful charting.

I've found success, and hope to spread some of the love.




We will start it right off....

Past few weeks I've been primarily focused on SLV, but now that it's withering away, I moved focus to AAPL about mid-week. 

I know this is late and won't help anyone, but this is what you can expect to see from this thread.



We will start with WED AAPL chart, squeezed lower, looking to break down big time.




Thursday chart, broke below, buyers tried to bring it back and attempt to hold $345. Expected. I decided to wait for Fri morning action before grabbing the 35 puts that were about to expire.




And here's the final break-down. Rode my channel downward.




Here's the AAPL may $345 PUTS I chose to bank in on.




Bought around $1 this morning, sold around $4. This shot was taken before close, but it ran higher. Decided to play it safe.




post #2 of 20

That AAPL was a classic break down from consolidation, all those stops got hit.


Good trade thumbup.gif

post #3 of 20

Nice trade, looking forward to seeing some more plays broken down. Whole lot of trendlines on one chart lol.

post #4 of 20
Thread Starter 

Hope everyone has been enjoying the AAPL trade.

Here are a few other hands to play with...







I'll be flipping weekly options tomorrow. Possibly flipping a few more, like NFLX AAPL AMZN. I usually only flip 2 at a time. But look throughout a handfull throughout that day for a constant play. Tomorrow is option expiries on many weeklies, usually means big swings $.

post #5 of 20

We miss you :) Glad to see your still alive and kicking! Keep it up!! booyah.gif

post #6 of 20
Thread Starter 

Too lazy for commentary, but I want to start my way into getting a bit more organized into my studies. 

So here's a baby step in doing so; just charts, no commentary.



"The battle on the 50"








Setting up for a big directional move.

post #7 of 20
Thread Starter 

Bearish on $AAPL, SPY







Looking to short the next pop toward the top of the tri in aapl and spy. believe both will squeeze lower eventually.

Edited by mpr - 10/19/11 at 6:52pm
post #8 of 20
Thread Starter 

Vehicles I plan on playing calls with: GOOG AMZN SODA

post #9 of 20
Thread Starter 


Originally Posted by mpr View Post

AMZN found support at the 61.8% fib retracement level. Ascending triangle bullish formation. Looks like it wants the gap fill. Playing the call options.


I'll find out if it rallies tomorrow.








post #10 of 20
Thread Starter 


Originally Posted by mpr View Post


HEAVILY shorted with a rising wedge.
Everybody don't forget SODA is in play.





SODA STILL in play as well. Hit a high of 43.5 today, Still looking for higher prices. Approaching possible breach of the 200dma.



post #11 of 20

Good plays here, lets make some monies!

post #12 of 20
Thread Starter 


Originally Posted by mpr View Post



Definition of 'VIX - CBOE Volatility Index'

The ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, which shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. This volatility is meant to be forward looking and is calculated from both calls and puts. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". 

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp#ixzz1m1ehFG1c









The pop in the VIX today was overextended on retail. But nothing to be considered out of the ordinary. When the market is at an area where the current trend is being threatened, put contracts will be put on whether the intent be from a hedge or a bet on some downside. We have been in a long up trend, and just hit a potential topping area at last years highs. That explains why put contracts have began to be purchased the past few days. Look back on the vix chart and these pops are common at potential danger zones.



post #13 of 20
Thread Starter 

I still like think SODA is buy on 40 for a nice swing into earnings.

post #14 of 20
Thread Starter 


Originally Posted by mpr View Post



My facts about ES price:


-Immediate pullback to at least 1325. You can see how around 1350 has always became resistance for ES.

-Every time we've rejected 1350, we've never had a pullback shorter than 1325.

-1325 has a good chance of holding because of the regression channels rising support levels.

-if 1320-1330 doesnt hold, we'll be due for a pullback and 1300 (1290 begging for it) will be the likes of new support.

-but since we already tested 1300 and held, we'd be in a bit of a weak position at that level,

     and most likely the bounce wouldn't sustain. A test of that 1260 level will be in the cards.

-1260 has been the strongest support after failing 1350 the last few times.


Basically what I'm getting at is if we don't hold 1320/1330 range, We may be in for a change in the trend to the downside until 1260. 






Originally Posted by mpr View Post




To be even more specific, I firmly expect a test of that 20 day moving average around 1320.

I also expect that we hold the 20DMA as support, and continue higher into new yearly highs... against most the higher probability scenarios of testing further support like the scenarios I projected above.


Too many good looking charts. banana.gif


post #15 of 20
Thread Starter 

I think one of the best ways to capture a bull market would be by riding the trend in your favorite vehicle.

My vehicle of choice will be AMZN. 

I'll follow up with technicals later.

post #16 of 20
Thread Starter 

I'm absolutely killing amzn calls today.

post #17 of 20

Love your trading lately.  You're really maximizing gains right now.

post #18 of 20
Thread Starter 

Thanks man! learned from the best!

post #19 of 20

what have i taught you? biggrin.gif


Originally Posted by mpr View Post

Thanks man! learned from the best!


post #20 of 20

Hey just saw this thread. Subbing and will be watching.

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