My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD

[strategist]

Forecast from 27.08.07



EURUSD
A pair broke through the top border of daily descending trend, that now opens a road for growth to the strategic aim 1.3856. A rally to this aim assumes a local aim 1.3765, and if it shows resistance, then support level will be found at 1.3673. From that level pair will go up to the strategic purpose 1.3856.

There is the second variant of events development as well:
There is a resistance level at 1.3700, if pair doesn’t pass through it, support level will be found at 1.3609. From that level events will develop on the first scenario.
Growth is also possible straight to 1.3856.
==================
Trade recommendation:
to buy at 1.3609 with target on 1.3856, if pair finds resistance on 1.3700;
to buy at 1.3673 with target on 1.3856, if pair finds resistance on 1.3765;
to buy at 1.3609 with target on 1.3856.








GBPUSD
A pair broke through the top border of daily descending trend, that now opens a road for growth to the strategic aim 2.0401. A rally to this aim assumes a local aim 2.0306, and if it shows resistance, then support level will be found at 2.0117. From that level pair will go up to the strategic purpose 2.0401.

There is the second variant of events development as well:
There is a resistance level at 2.0145, if pair doesn’t pass through it, support level will be found at 2.0029. From that level events will develop on the first scenario.
Growth is also possible straight to 2.0401.
==================
Trade recommendation:
to buy at 2.0029 with target on 2.0401, if pair finds resistance on 2.0145;
to buy at 2.0117 with target on 2.0401, if pair finds resistance on 2.0306.
to buy at 2.0029 with target on 2.0401.






USDCHF






USDJPY






GOLD




Dollar index

[wolf825]

Thank you for Joining us here at HSM.

Shall look forward to your continued contributions!

-w

[mister_doodi]

Excellent work. Are you from Russia or you speak Russian? I saw you post that on this Russian message board.

[strategist]

EURUSD

Trade signals:
Sell 1.3586, stop 1.3627, target 1.3475.







GBPUSD

Trade signals:
Sell 2.0131, stop 2.0205, target 2.0020






USDCHF
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/7886/chfh4ek1.gif - H4

http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/1359/chfd1er2.gif - D1




DXY
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/5770/dxyh4ev0.gif - H4

http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/7585/dxyd1be3.gif - D1




USDJPY and GOLD – look at previous forecasts

[strategist]

25.11.07


EURUSD
Trade recomendations:
sell 1.4863, take profit 1.4630, stop loss 1.4930


http://img160.imageshack.us/img160/4220/eurd1xt6.gif - daily



GBPUSD
Trade recomendations:
sell 2.0635, take profit 2.0425, stop loss 2.0760


http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/725/gbpd1bd5.gif - daily



USDJPY
Trade recomendations:
buy 108.80, take profit 110.05, stop loss 108.15


http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/2962/jpyd1hz0.gif - daily



GOLD
Trade recommendations:
sell 827.27 - 828.98, take profit 785.50, stop loss 835.


http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/9201/goldd1md5.gif - daily

[strategist]

Temporary consolidation


Dollar pairs slowed down their movement after starting to grow rapidly, but the trade goes on and it’s necessary to determine the trading range which is now offered by dollar. To determine also if the movement towards dollar’s growth will continue or the correction will start, and the depth of correction.


Dollar index
On the day’s graph the index has broken a descending green trend and the upper range of “double top” shape, what gives dollar a potential for further growth if the index remains above trends. Targets for further growth are high, and the correction may elongate up to level of 75.69.

Correction range determination using index let us trade in favour of dollar’s price reduction in following pairs:



GBPUSD
On a 4-hours graph the side trend continues. On an hour graph the side trend has also formed.


No rading recommendations:




EURUSD
The pair is set against an ascending green trend from the daily graph (see daily graphs in previous forecasts). When bounced of it, the pair formed a potential of growth to 1.4750, from where I expect further reducing as low as to 1.4200.
Of course, breaking of green trend from current levels is also possible.


Trading recommendations:
buy by market situation, but not higher than 1.4770 with a stop 1.4615 and a target 1.4750



USDJPY
I expect forming a “head & shoulders” shape on a daily graph with right shoulder’s end at price about 109.35. Forming of this shape is contributed by inability of rapid breaking of descending daily trend, and the divergence on a daily graph.


On a 4-hours graph the pair formed a “double top” shape with a target 109.35.
http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/7959/jpyh4ax2.gif - H4

Trading recommendations:
Sell at 110.15, target 109.35, stop 110.60
Buy 110.60, target 113.48, stop 110.15


GOLD
At Í4 Gold is in the side trend, having broken this trend it has a chance of growth to 807.00. I keep myself from trading for the time being.

[strategist]

Complex view at the market


Dollar index and Gold
The market continues consolidation, taking a direction. Gold at the daily graph forms a triangle and today it has broken a descending side trend at H4, opening a way of growth to 807.00. The growth to 820.00 is also possible, depending on the market situation after reaching the first target. Such picture says in a favour of dollar’s continued dropping.

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/9500/goldd1kv4.gif - daily

Dollar index is set on the support expressed in upper bounds of ascending H4 trend and “double bottom” daily shape. Upon breaking the ascending trend’s lower bound index will get ability of dropping at 75.15.

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/155/dxyd1bw1.gif - daily



EURUSD
As supposed, the pair has reached 1.4750 level, which showed a resistance. At the same moment, the pair set against the upper bound of a descending 4-hours trend. Upon breaking it, the pair will get ability of growth to 1.4841, possibly a key level from which forming of the right shoulder of a “head & shoulders” shape may start. The potential of forming such shape is expressed not only with the general picture of the main pairs, but also with the divergence at the daily graph.

http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/6214/eurusdd1ib1.gif - daily



USDCHF
On a 4-hours graph the pair has broken the lower bound of an ascending trend; this has opened a target 1.1020.




USDJPY
I supposed forming the right shoulder of a “head & shoulders” shape on this pair at 109.35 level, this scenario is not cancelled for the time being. If the pair won’t go up from this level, its target will become the support at 108.16.
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/5003/usdjpyh4lg5.gif - H4

[wolf825]

Great posts and TA!


w

[strategist]

Uncertainty before non-farm payrolls



Dollar index
Index has broken a neck line and the 77.84 level is its target. But since a turned candle “hammer” formed at the EUR/USD daily graph today, tomorrow is the time for very great news concerning employment market and the picture over all main pairs is clear to everyone, movement towards 77.84 is very possible, as well as reverse neck line breaking followed by decrease with 75.14 target.

http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/827/dxyd1ys1.gif - D1



GOLD
On a daily graph gold forms a “triangle” shape which may be broken either upwards or downwards (which is more probable). On a 4-hours graph a “head & shoulders” shape is formed. If tomorrow (December, 7) gold will manage to remain below neck line, then it will go down to “triangle” shape’s lower bound (779.38). In the case of its breaking gold will tend to grow to triangle’s higher bound (828.36) but in the path of this growth there will be a resistance at 820.50.
http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/4953/goldh4ex8.gif - H4
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/580/goldd1mg3.gif - D1



EURUSD
This night EUR/USD sharply broke a neck line (1.4634), after reaching a red ascending daily trend (1.4525) the pair rapidly bumped out of it and went back to a neck line. During this movement a turned candle “hammer” shape was formed. The pair’s situation is uncertain. Logically, after breaking a neck line a good descending trend should start, but forming of a turned candle assumes equal possibilities of going up or down.

Upon neck line bottom-up breaking (1.4643) there are two variants of consequences:
1. the pair may bump off an ascending green daily trend.
2. in the case of breaking of this trend, as well as breaking a descending 4-hours trend, the pair will forward to 1.4840.
In the event that the pair bumps off a neck line (1.4640) it will go towards an ascending red daily trend (1.4550) and on its braking will go at 1.4370. Strategically, if this situation develops, I expect the pair at 1.4200.

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/5086/eurusdd1jw9.gif - daily



GBPUSD
The pair broke a neck line (2.0414) of a “head & shoulders” shape, then rapidly dropped down, but a week’s ascending red trend (2.0179) showed a resistance to this movement. Bumping off it can give the pair a chance to bottom-up testing of a neck line (2.0420), but in this case a descending 4-hours trend will most likely be broken and then the pair may rise to 2.0523 and higher. If tomorrow the descending movement will continue and a red trend will be broken, the pair’s target will be 2.0010 level. Strategically, the pair will be forced to drop to 1.9600.

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7724/gbpusdd1ki5.gif - daily
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7...dweeklyed5.gif - weekly



USDCHF
The pair broke the higher bound of a descending daily trend (1.1282) and now its target is 1.1680. But since the situation about the rest of pairs is rather uncertain, usd/chf also has possibility to go down ignoring the descending daily trend’s higher bound.
On a 4-hours graph the pair is in a side trend (blue). In the case of breaking of its lower bound (1.1168), the decrease to 1.1020 will occur.

http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/228/usdchfd1yz3.gif - daily



USDJPY
As supposed, the pair formed a “head & shoulders” shape, the neck line was broken and now the pair’s target is 113.48. But then again let’s take a look over other main pairs and not to be so sure, that this shape will work properly. If the neck line will be broken top-down (110.85), the pair will have a great chance to drop at 108.23.
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7824/usdjpyh4lx2.gif - H4
http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/9892/usdjpyd1by3.gif - daily

[strategist]

Dollar growth is inevitable.



OIL
Dollar growth is inevitable. Primarily, we need to look at the oil graph as it shows more precise and global picture (it’s well-known that upon decrease of oil prices growth, dollar price rises). As the daily graph shows, an ascending daily trend was broken, after what a descending trend started forming. Also an ascending daily trend (blue) was falsely broken and the “diamond” shape at H4 graph had formed, which is already exhausted meaning the oil price growth at H4 comes to an end. If oil will manage to break this blue trend again, it will go down to support 89.50. If oil also overcomes this support, the target becomes 81.43 level.
http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/8814/oild1zz3.gif - D1
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/8215/oilh4me2.gif - H4



Dollar index
http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/4509/dxyd1si9.gif - D1
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/5293/dxyh4up3.gif - Н4



EURUSD
The daily graph shows that the pair is closed in the range between red and green ascending daily trends. I expect the red trend breaking and going down to the first target at 1.4371. My strategic target is 1.4200 (going down to the blue ascending trend), but again examining the pair behavior at 1.4371 is necessary.

At H4 graph the pair has a weak resistance at 1.4639 which is likely to collapse, but I’ll try to sell at it. I can’t see more exact resistances above, hence I won’t name the price. The pair trades in a descending trend, which is worth orienting to. Braking of this trend will put in doubt the pair’s willing to go down and in that case it has a good chance to grow to 1.4750. If the red trend (daily) will be repeatedly broken, the pair will head to the blue trend, and upon breaking it – to 1.4371. This course of events is the most probable due to pictures on oil, dollar index, gold and the rest main pairs.

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/6307/eurh4uk4.gif - H4



GBPUSD
At D1 graph we were having a “head & shoulders” shape which was successfully ignored by the market, because a very strong trend emerged in its way.. The pair bounced off this trend on 390 pips – the red ascending trend from W1 graph. Its breaking opens the way of going down to 1.9855 for the pair

At H4 graph the ascending trend was broken and a slightly deformed “head & shoulders” shape is forming. This shape is formed with a very important rule violation, hence we need to be careful with its neck line braking, it may be false. Now the right shoulder is forming. Its forming can long until 2.0450, where a strong resistance in a form of neck line of the daily “head & shoulders” is situated. Also, the pair may not reach 2.0450, if the lower bound of an ascending trend manages to show a decent resistance. I expect the breaking of neck line, followed by the red trend breaking and I will head to the strategic target at 1.9850.

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/3429/gbph4xd1.gif - H4
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7...dweeklyed5.gif - W1



USDCHF
At D1 the pair overcome all the resistances and has nothing else to do as go to 1.1679.

At H4 a “bull’s triangle” shape is formed, support at 1.1390.

http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/6871/chfh4tp7.gif - H4



GOLD
At D1 a “triangle” shape is formed, with breaking the lower bound of which the gold will go down to 746.00.

At H4 an ascending trend is broken, which opens the sure path of going down to the lower “triangle’s” boundary – 781.50.
Resistance is at 801.26. It may also be the lower bound of the ascending trend from H4 graph.