watch list for the week & into Fall....

[wolf825]

Howdy...
FOMC minutes due out this week--very significant...plus several EUR and USD reports--including US Existing Home Sales which may fall slightly from expectations. Watch the news--its the end of the month--hard to trade and often volitile.

Many of the currencies have come off their consolidations from the previous weeks.."noise" seems to have died down..now some significant levels are being touched or have been broken... I smell trade opportunities. Have to see what this week brings us for validations of moves--many stock and investment folks are NOT on holiday this last week of summer because of recent volitility in the markets... I expect things to simmer down a bit and begin to take shape for the Fall and this could present us some signifcant opportunities for trades with some nice gains.. Based on the DAILY charts---here is what I notice:

GBP/USD has broken after open today a significant 2.0150 resistance level.. This is important that it stays strong over this for it to continue up--a retrace below could put this pair off for another week. This pair IMO seems to be leading the way in showing signs of what we may see in coming weeks. Daily and hourly charts look to be setting up for a major continuation move... Whether it shall be a return consolidation back to 1.9800 and below, or a test further back to summer highs--we shall see.. Technicals as I read them seem to say they wanna go test the sumer highs and break them if we can get over the next level of 2.0220.. Given the status of the subprime mortgage issues (and don't forget the MASSIVE layoffs by lenders--that will play a big factor in Jobs coming up!), the dollars econ reports, the Fed band-aid placed on a gaping housing wound and current forecast situation for rate cuts before end of year--Could the GBP be *really* setting up to test 2.1000?? I'm goin out on a limb to say it--but from the chart levels and moves I see now and in past history--we could see an 800+ pip move UP progressively into the Fall on this pair...so IMO--a LONG play on this pair held onto for a while could pay off extremely well....

USD/JPY..I hate this pair. Daily MACD has crossed and turned to the upside...historically when it has done this--a several hundred pip move has followed... We could be looking at 119.00 on this pair shortly...and this may be the only pair that responds in a mediocre dollar positive manner...

EUR/JPY--simply put in the short term I am looking for levels up off 159.50 into the 162.00-163.00 area and is how my Long trade is set up... Longer term seems to show a test to 167.00 again..but need to see how much steam this pair is gonna get off the ECB... Could be slightly whippy and then move tomorrow...

USD/CAD... Wow..currently back down at 1.0500/1.0497..a slow "drift" into 1.0400 to 1.0335 seems likely in the short to mid term....a break up and over 1.0675 would negate this idea...but I don't think we shall see an upturn. CAD has a significantly more stable economy and currency to the USD, tho its showing signs of stress limits being pressed... I'm not expecting a huge amount of move from this pair...yet...CAD has a GDP report out on Friday--premature anticipation may keep this tightly rangebound (between 1.0650 and 1.0385) this week unless US news weakens.

EUR/USD...a possibly slow drift UPwards on this pair IMO is quite possible... 1.3800 seems to be a target but would need a strong ECB catalyst...did I mention Trichet was speaking about interest rates tomorrow morn? Watch for a spike whipsaw move on this pair in the NY session ahead of comments...

AUD/USD... Trade balance due out soon for this pair... Pair still needs to correct its "correction" move from previous weeks more IMO...currently at .8300--needs to be really sitting around .8500 IMO to balance itself for a big touch of the strong resistance above it.

A final word--These are ideas I am toying with and pairs that have caught my eye based off the Daily charts... Info and opinion shared is for amusement and thought producing discussion purposes..you are responsible for your own trades. Its Forex--it will do what it wants...last week several of my trade idea levels happened as I thought--but most were premature and occured days after I thought they would after a retrace stopped me out on the ideas... So nothing is set in stone until it actually gets there and shows validations. Take this for "watch" purposes only--base your trades off what YOU see and agree or disagree with...and we'll see where this all ends up in the next few days and weeks.

Trade Safe and TRade Smart!
-w

[bioman22]

Nice summary.

[techno791]

Great reminder. I forget FOMC Friday, AND Labor Day right after. Going to be interesting.
Need to do analysis myself, will edit later if I see anything to add, but I'm so close to being purely technical lately. Which I don't entirely like, I like having the big macro picture of things.

England announced something about personal debt hitting 100% of GDP last week. Not sure if it'll have any effect, but fundamentally it sounds like they could follow us at some point. Worlds going wonky.

UK Summer Holiday this Monday(today) also.

If you're a carry trader, all pairs might be worth a look IF the crash is over. Opportunities for ground floor are abound. But that's IF they don't reverse back down some more.

[wolf825]

Originally Posted by techno791

Great reminder. I forget FOMC Friday, AND Labor Day right after. Going to be interesting.
Need to do analysis myself, will edit later if I see anything to add, but I'm so close to being purely technical lately. Which I don't entirely like, I like having the big macro picture of things.

England announced something about personal debt hitting 100% of GDP last week. Not sure if it'll have any effect, but fundamentally it sounds like they could follow us at some point. Worlds going wonky.

UK Summer Holiday this Monday(today) also.

If you're a carry trader, all pairs might be worth a look IF the crash is over. Opportunities for ground floor are abound. But that's IF they don't reverse back down some more.

"...IF they don't reverse back down".... Exactly!

In Forex its always a tough call to find those tops and bottoms...we all want to think and believe we have seen a top or bottom only to be surprised...I know I am always surprised on some moves. Comparatively to last week I am seeing quite a bit more stability right now--but in Forex that can change in a flash or simply mislead folks very easily.. I have to say I love playin the technicals--and I love doing a detailed TA on charts in a bigger picture view of where the technicals "could" be pointing to..especially on the long frame charts and when I look at the future of where a pair looks like it may be going several months down the road. When I find those directions and I find those potentials--it opens up a lot of trade opportunities to keep a watch for on moves...and this is what I wanted to share with folks here. Lots of folks will scalp or day trade quickly--but a key thing is seeing the forest and not just the trees.

The catalysts in Forex that kick start those moves or toss the technicals into or out of play are the fundamentals and news.. Learning to find the "mix" and read the balance at the time for trading between fundies and technicals is crucial to success and survival in Forex. Have to learn to step back from a great technical set up and check out the analyst reports or news blurbs can help greatly to validate or give concern to perhaps step back and watch (and thus avoiding a potential hit) is an ongoing challenge to everyone in Forex no matter their experience or skill level. Everything can play in your favor or against you if you don't check out the fundamentals--sometimes everything just keeps on adding to a situation--but you always have to be on the watch for the twist.. Even a holiday can matter for a potential move either in delay or in providing a different entry level you did not plan on. A holiday for example can cause a pair to dwindle back from a rise down to a support area--even tho all the technicals point to a continuation of a rise...

Forex always will keep you on your toes and keeps your eyes always looking...
-w

[wolf825]

Nearly all the pairs have resumed previous levels tonite that we were at on Sunday/Monday.. We're back to the teetering points and critical resistance and support levels for breakouts for further moves against the Dollar, or reversal and failure back down.. Keep your eyes open for trade opportunities and breakouts....

-w