NFP Friday, Sept 7th

[wolf825]

Howdy folks--just a heads up for the newbies--the US NFP (Non Farm Payrolls--a critical and HUGE report on US job growth) is due out tomorrow--expect a large swing in movement possible depending on how the numbers come out...the market depending on how it has moved and set up this week will either be speculative & whippy ahead of it...or it can be almost flatline stagnent as things have been priced in--and as if braceing for the news.. BE CAREFUL...this is the 'big daddy' of reports to move the currency markets just short of the Fed chairman himself making comments...

This is one of the most dangerous reports of the month to have a trade open--so be careful if you are trading... My suggestion--close out any trades well ahead of this report if you have any open..don't re-open a trade until about 15 minutes after the report is out and the market has decided how it interprets things--usually 15 minutes is enough..but sometimes its just best to let the dust settle and come back on Sunday or Monday--seriously... The Market can turn against you and blow past your stoplosses and potentially wipe out your account in seconds if you are not careful or have a stop loss in place...and also opposite can happen if you should be on the right side of it--it can give you HUGE gains in a matter of seconds as well...but its a very very risky report to be in an open trade when it releases.. This report can cause a HUGE whipping action in major pairs accross the board--a pair may go up 60-80 pips instantly at release, and then suddenly reverse 120-150 pips on a comment or number--and keep on falling or then suddenly reverse again--very very quickly and without warning or reason.

Some folks play it--I find it fun to play on occasion--and sometimes I'll just open up a demo account to play a hunch and see if I was right without risking a dime--just for fun...but mostly I sit it out and watch. If playing for real it can be a very HUGE risk and is not for the faint of heart...and as important as these numbers are tomorrow--it could be a dud or it could be a HUGE catalyst for movement.. I'm thinking it could be the set up to send pairs back to their multi-year highs again against the Dollar into the Fall months...

A good read article on the NFP and the critical measure of this report tomorrow...
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...082740922.html

Suggest folks read the above article from Kathy Lein (a very good Forex analyst IMO)... Forecast is 135k, previous was 132k--revisions on the number may be released ahead of the report numbers...

GLTA..

-w

[techno791]

The last three of these have been pretty whipsawy. They used to follow a nice trend after a few minutes. Would love to see it go back to trending instead of werid whipsaws.

[wolf825]

Originally Posted by techno791

The last three of these have been pretty whipsawy. They used to follow a nice trend after a few minutes. Would love to see it go back to trending instead of werid whipsaws.

Seems you got your wish on that one techno.. Shortly after the first 15min candle printed a close--the moves were pretty solid and uneventful til the last 60 minutes or so in the day...everyone bailing out for the weekend taking their profits and running.. Next week is the FOMC minutes--hawkish statement, or will they refine it to be neutral, or will they confirm what the many predictions are forecasting based off the news to date--a rate cut, and potential for worse economic occurances in the US...

Either way, the US dollar seems to be keeping its bad to worse news thing going...and IMO this NFP generally sets the tone for the rest of the month and potentially into the Fall short of a FED miracle... Negative US moves and positive counter currencies.. Will this mean the EUR to 1.40...GBP to possibly 2.08 and CAD could come proprietary with the U$D?? Well in Forex, anything is possible...

-w

[techno791]

The one time I couldn't play ball. On Eur/USD it really retraced, but not at pre-NFP numbers before flying up up up in the air. Was close though.

[wolf825]

New month and the NFP data is due out tomorrow.... Lots of speculation--but things seem to point to a weaker number than forecast... Either way it will be an interesting report...and a potentially volitile day. Plus there is the "september effect" factor for carry traders of Yen pairs..and how they will fare.

The market IMO is in need of a decision to be made and a direction to be given...its been floundering for the past several weeks and has started to give some settling down..but not enough to be definitive.. Will tomorrow do it--perhaps...or it may leave the markets still scratching their heads and turning to the Fed for guidance... We shall see....

Here is a link to a good analysis of the NFP for Sept 7th by Kathy Lein I suggest folks check out...

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...102485077.html

Tomorrow could be hectic... Trade Safe and Trade smart!

-w

[techno791]

If I may be so bold.
I read somewhere this week a blurb about this quarter is the offical "lay-off" season. From labor day till Christmas.
The builders and mortgage industry is having a slow down, which even Mexico is feeling in it's remittances.
My old company, non-related to the industry just mentioned, feels like it has a hiring freeze, and the job openings section was purged. For one of the biggest companies, I don't even see them listed at a college career fair coming up in 3 weeks. They used to be ALWAYS hiring, everywhere, and everyone the last few years. Well, unless I wanted to work in a call center and then transfer *sigh*.
And a similiar thing it looks like for the other companies.

And then, today, as I've been speculating, World economic slowdown.

I don't know if 110k projection on the NFP is high or low, but I'm forecasting suck in the upcoming months. Until December, when we'll get the job creation from christmas hires. But if the suck is bad, that probably wouldn't even be high, and a blockbuster would be minimal in the Jan figures I speculate.

[wolf825]

110k is a big suck...typical in banner years the NFP report would be in the 250-300k range which is awesome....the 'average' generalized number is considered 175k-200k... Lately the numbers have been suck numbers....anything below 100 is extremely dreadful and has a major suck factor....

August is typically for reports decent on sales numbers--because of college and back to school.. for jobs between july and august its usually weak or as forecast--sept thru til xmas is mediocre at best...but the mortgage layoffs and recent declines and the woes of the housing and growth--this signals a major potential problem... FWIW--I am figuring a NFP report number around 75-85k at best....anything better or closer to 110k could be encouraging for the $...and anything higher than the forecast will be amazingly good for the Dollar...

We shall see....
-w