Non-Farm Payroll 04/6/07

[reggiek1112003]

From what i've been hearing, it looks like we're in for some low number with the Non-Farm payroll report on friday morning. The Stock Market is closed, but we thankfully aren't.
Manpower and Monster have been predicting pretty low numbers and there are already some other worries about the US economy.
How do you guys think this will effect the USD in its pairs, especially its AUD, NZD, and JPY pairs?

I personally think we could be looking at a dip into the 117 territory for a short while, perhaps a very short while.

[techno791]

I had a gut feeling of a low one this time or the next. Probably next with all the subprime banking layoff's. Do people look for a new job in the summer more? I've been trying to predict on commonsense. People wait for the new year to quit for yearly bonsus. Christmas jobs hire a lot, etc. But I keep hearing, not from a lot of sources, a possible good number. So if their right, I'm going to guess good this time, bad next.
ISM report was bad. But this one may have the possibility of being good with all the other indicators.
It's always 50/50 isn't it? too bad hedgestreet doesn't let you bet on the numbers anymore. Think next month is bad. This one maybe good.

Disclaimer: I have no clue what I'm talking about, but my gut feelings hasn't been all that bad since last thanksgiving.
Double Disclaimer: If you couldn't follow my broken thoughts, disregard.

Might be a good idea if there's a JPY dip though. We should look for good support numbers for just in case.

[phatey]

I bet they come in close to +100K.

from BLS.

[mister_doodi]

Sub prime is not be all end all for the housing market. It only represents 20% of the loan market and about 5% of that are refi's with colletral. So about 15% of the loans are straight sub prime housing loans.

And as of febuary, there is 13% deliquency rate. So about 2% of sub prime loans are getting defaulted. Thats pretty low considering the type of loan.

I think it's going to blow over when CNBC has something else to talk about.

[techno791]

I dont' believe anything in the market is isolated. But if enough people get laid off at one time, may do something for these reports.
As far as subprime foreclosures go. It creates a perfect opportunity in other ways. Saw a graphic of Philadelphia 2000-2003 yesterday. Could've remade and take back the entire city just by sheriffs sales.

Other states dont' see it, but in the south, you'd have to wonder when they were going to stop building more houses than people. Shows in the toll brothers 79% earnings drop I think it was. Now creating a 9/11 style funding problem. Post 9/11 it took 3 years for hotels to get financing to build them again. They're not breaking ground on new downtown condo towers. Not like real human beings were buying them to live in, they got bought up for quick flips. Then comes my complaint about I wish incomes tripled in 3 years like cost of living.

But for NFP's, I'm talking about if a lot of companies lay people off in one months time.

[privatebanker]

stay away from trading this. It doesn't matter if the numbers are good, i have seen this go the other way many times. also, you can be hit with revisions 5 minutes later which can kill you. they lure you in with the greed of the quick 100 pips that you can make. imo, do not trade this news. i will look to trade GBP/JPY after it blows over.

[phatey]

Originally Posted by techno791

Other states dont' see it, but in the south, you'd have to wonder when they were going to stop building more houses than people.

Thats how it is where I live too. Who do they think is going to buy all these homes? We haven't even started to see the housing problem, imo. It becomes a problem when it bleeds over to the labor market, and I don't think that will happen soon, but we will soon see.

[techno791]

Apparently my broker lets you do a market order, but you can't set buy limit/sell stops, limits and stop losses before the numbers. But looking at EUrodollar, i could've done this 5 hours ago and have the same entry.

Disappointed so far. Chicago's open, but not my particular futures exchange. All numbers are good, and the spot market is slow and retracing. I'm going to keep a position open through a weekend gap if i have to! this needs to come down.