A forex vent

[techno791]

I have two issues with the forex.

Why's price do what it's supposed to the second after I sell? Doesn't matter if it's 5 minutes, or 5 hours. The moment where I go, okey that's enough, let's close it. 30 seconds later the price drops.
Today's cable drop after 10:30. Albeit I was forced to demo this trade though I'd do it for real(why's it take so long to open an account?). I decide 00 is going to be a psychological, it's bouncing close after a while, after 36minutes and knowing it's almost 11, I close it for a "scalp". Would you know that the next minute it broke and hit support at 9590? In a matter of seconds I guess.
They's say profit is profit, but I'm seeing a pattern.

Also. Some of my earliest systems involved the Moving average, and then I moved onto CCI. These were working really well, but recently something werid. At what point after a MA cross on a daily or hourly am I supposed to follow? Lately when the lines touch or the CCI crosses, instead of a "kabam" moment I'm getting a reverse. So now all the lines untouch and all the indicators just get edited. If you wait for too many candles, the moment would've already happen and it'll be missed. An easy entry is becoming a pain. I learned not to trust these on the 15min anymore. I get too many reversals in NY session.
Check the dailies using a 5 and 10EMA on yesterdays Aussie/dollar and kiwi/Dollar to see what I mean. Aussie isn't supposed to drop. I thought the setup was perfect, maybe I'm a day off? now it looks like it'll wait till next week?
Or does somethign that only happen twice a month still have a bad failure rate? I do have one idea for antoher criteria to hit before entering those trades...

Well, that's my rant for the bad stuff. I'm not going to rant about the good. Add your gripes in here.

And it's not a gripe, but who would've guessed a stronger canadian dollar after interest rate remains unchanged. I thought unchanged was expected, maybe I'm wrong.

[mister_doodi]

Your in a funk. I go through periods where nothing goes right some times and usally give back some of my gains.

I was Aussie short since tranding started on sunday and closed it for 20 pip gain this morning, a near perfect short. I was USD/CAD long bouncing off longer time frame moving average. You my friend, need a break.

[HititUP]

Originally Posted by mister_doodi

Your in a funk. I go through periods where nothing goes right some times and usally give back some of my gains.

I was Aussie short since tranding started on sunday and closed it for 20 pip gain this morning, a near perfect short. I was USD/CAD long bouncing off longer time frame moving average. You my friend, need a break.

Best advice ever

[techno791]

Originally Posted by mister_doodi

Your in a funk. I go through periods where nothing goes right some times and usally give back some of my gains.

I was Aussie short since tranding started on sunday and closed it for 20 pip gain this morning, a near perfect short. I was USD/CAD long bouncing off longer time frame moving average. You my friend, need a break.

I was AUS long yesterday. By using the daily chart. Moving average, sto, RSI. Usually works. Yesterdays candle must've killed me maybe.

I can't afford a break, my months of planning was for this point.
Oh well, I'll just spread bet the news for the rest of this week. That's a rush.
Plus, I can't believe how many methods and systems people have come up with out there.

A few days ago I d/l'd the new system for CMS's VTrader that was for stocks&commodities magazine. RSI ATR 30/70 I think, or something that sounds like that. Haven't really seriously played with any of those systems yet, but this ones working pretty well...on the 15min chart yet. It looks really promising.

[mister_doodi]

That NZD news trade few minutes ago was wild. I got slipped so much it's funny. Around 20 pips or so. Should have faded it. Down to -4 pips now.

[mister_doodi]

AUDUSD gapped up on sunday's open and broke the trendline but it's not a technical break, it's just the way the market works so I stuck with it and sure enought it made a topping pattern and went down, then it retested the resistance and failed.

[mister_doodi]

USDCAD bounce off EMA.

Whew made 10 pips on that NZDUSD news trade.

[techno791]

I need to write down all trendlines and resistances for now on.

The NZD release was intersting. It went up to the 23.6% fibo(on the release). If using 10min candles(or 5 even), enter at 4:49 and out at 4:51 with a good scalp using downward pressure. If the order would work like that that is. The 10 and five minute chart then changed to upwards for the second bar, even t hough it started down.
Strangely enough, the 15min bars, which I thought might be too long had three perfectly down candles. Hm...
Didn't see any good fibo plays though...except a "system" i downloaded somewhere, in it's 126 pages sounded like the setup might have been here. I'm on page 28.

I'm unsure about fading news. I'm always afraid of not getting a good bottom.

[mister_doodi]

AUD/NZD went to exactly 1 pip short of the previous highs in that run up. I coulden't belive it but I guess thats how successful faders play it, use fibs and mark support and resistance levels.

[wolf825]

What doodi said--you need a break...we all need one from Forex from time to time...trust me on that one. When you start having a bunch of losing trades its time to step back and watch for a few days or ignore the markets all together for a few days. Remember--not every day is a prime trading day. Look for the opportunities--don't try to force them. Forex has a high burn out tendancy..focus to trade when its good trading times...and when its not--take a break from it or check out other pairs. You'll last longer and stay sane...and Forex success happens in the "long term"....

As for why Forex does what it does--it may seem a lot like things happen after you close your position--and it probably does to some degree...but you have to remember the psychological aspect to Forex. All around the world at any given moment there are thousands of traders just like yourself thinking and doing the exact same thing around the exact same times--why--because we all can see the same data..the same Fibonacci's..the same EMA's..the same support and resistance...the same MACD crosses....the same news being released.. Trick is to figure out what those folks are doing and then try to think what is the "smart money" or "institutional folks" are thinking--cause its usually opposite or "more enduring" of that of the thousands of commercial and retail traders who lack the patience or experience to trade with deliberate angst. Once you can figure that mindset out---follow it and you will find that when you start thinking that way then you will leave that position open a little longer, or set your stop just outside that "zone" where it will get hit etc etc..and your successes will increase.

I don't have much time or energy right now to write much more on this--but trust me after you take a break and walk away for a breather things will seem better.

As for your CCI and EMA's etc etc--Forex markets also has a great tendancy to change and shift its moods and volitility. If you find that EMA's kicked butt for so many months and suddenly they go cold--realize this: There is no single indicator that works flawlessly 100% of the time in all market conditions...you have to be able to adjust your trading and indicators to match the changing markets... If a indicator starts to turn cold---ask yourself "what changed and why?"...and STOP uising it til you figure the answer out. Then look for another or "fallback" indicator to tell you information. Learn to recognize how and when indicators work their best magic for you and learn to be able to shift between them if you need to... Learn your indicators and when they work best--in trends, ranges, breakouts, days of the week/month (yes--that is possible), pre or post major news breaks, and learn how to take advantage of it and see those chart set ups.. When you learn to look for the changes and apply the psychology, you can learn to improve your calls. If the market changes--a trader has to change with it or they can lose all they gained. Overall--everything just takes patience, dilligence, practice and time to do that...Forex is like the tide and it is always in control--you just have to learn how to surf the waves when the tide changes...

For example on practice and learning to observe in detail--and this is hard to explain how it works exactly or what I do---but watch the moves on the 15min candle and how much it moves and how aggressively it moves....and also watch the TIME of when the moves in the candle are happening. The early part of the 15min candle I have found is either a "tease or a tell" to what is gonna happen--and how much it moves and how fast and WHEN in that 15minutes is the clue...the middle part of a candle time frame (usually 7min-12min in) is often the shake out/hesitation time...and the last few minutes of a candle will often print strong toward the overall move it started in the beginning--unless during that hesitation time it exceeds and breaks new ground opposite of the push. How many times have you bailed in the begining or middle of a 15min candle time frame, only to watch it plummet in your favor another 8-10 pips in the last two minutes before it prints a new candle? Very Often candles are the psycho-therapists of the Forex world, and this is one of the ways I look at candles to get a read on what is going on.. Oddly--its a very predictable cycle. I have found with striking accuracy that candles can tell you a lot about whats going on and what is gonna happen--if you look at the time when moves happen AND the "strength" behind the move. This works (at least for me) in the 15min charts...just sit there and try to THINK about what others are thinking about... I often will watch the candle and then look at a clock to see where I am in the print or time frame...is it early in the 15min period, middle of the period, or at the tail end of the print....try to assess what the psychology is going on during this...if you are thinking it--others are too...and the smart money is waiting out the folks hesitating or seeing the price fluctuate by 1-2 pips against them.. By doing this I have done well and gained extra pips or stayed in to catch another run this way....This is ESPECIALLY helpful when a candle if making new highs or lows for the day...look at where the hesitation is and look for when the hesitation is. I have ridden a trade into a new high or low for the day by doing this... That is one way--another way is to look at what the counter currencies are doing elsewhere..sometimes they will move before your pair will--and that can give you an idea as well..but that info is for another post.

dunno if that helps or confuses you....but its some stuff to think about. good luck...

-w