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Old Oct 11th, 2006, 05:50 PM   #1
dr_sean
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Stock Market Discussion: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

Welcome to the Stock Market discussion and analysis thread!

Here we focus on understanding, calculating and formulating analysis to help predict future moves in the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones.

Dow Jones Industrials Average ($INDU):


S&P 500 ($SPX):


Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX or IXIC):


Nasdaq 100 Trust (NDX or QQQQ):
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Old Oct 11th, 2006, 05:53 PM   #2
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Post Important Indexes to Keep an Eye on

Some other indexes, ones that I will refrain from posting charts of, worth keeping an eye on are the following (in my opinion):

S&P 100 - $OEX

Russell 2000 - $RUT.X

Semiconductor Index - $SOX.X

Dow Jones Composite - $COMP

There are others, these are just a few of my faves.

Keep an eye on XLE for energy, XOI for oil, and XAU for gold / silver.

Any other comments or suggestions are welcome.
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Old Oct 11th, 2006, 06:01 PM   #3
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Thumbs up NEWS

I will be posting pretty much all the news I find pertinent and helpful to our insight of broader market movement. I have an online subscribtion to the Wall Street Journal, so don't rat me out and I'll give you a nice little connection.

I encourage you to share any news you find important to our discussion.
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Old Oct 11th, 2006, 08:31 PM   #4
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The pullbacks this week have been minimal, despite negative news.

I was hoping to see a good long entry. It's a little weary to jump in what could be the top of the channel.

OEX rated very bullish.



I'm waiting for what kind of pullback I can get to enter a long.



OEX Intraday:

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Old Oct 12th, 2006, 01:02 AM   #5
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Cool NEWS about N. Korea Nuke

France: North Korea nuclear test was a failure

Pyongyang claims success; Japan imposes sanctions; U.S. readies resolution
Updated: 4:55 p.m. CT Oct 11, 2006

PARIS - France said outright for the first time Wednesday that North Korea’s proclaimed nuclear test produced such a small blast that it must have failed, and analysts warned such challenging talk could lead Pyongyang to try again.

North Korea threatened more nuclear tests and said it would consider additional sanctions an act of war, stoking tensions in an already jittery Asia.

U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said the United States will formally introduce a new draft U.N. Security Council resolution on North Korea on Thursday, with the hope that it would be adopted 24 hours later,


The measure comes as the United States and Japan have said they want the council to pass a resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea over its claimed nuclear test by the end of the week. Both countries have sought to overcome China's reluctance to punish its impoverished ally too severely.

World powers stepped up a hunt for clues about the insular communist regime’s test, with Britain sending refueling jets to join Japanese aircraft trawling the skies for any traces of radiation.

The blast from North Korea’s first nuclear weapons test was believed to have been the equivalent of hundreds or even thousands of tons of TNT, and was strong enough to send seismic waves as far as Japan’s main island.


Kyodo via Reuters
North Korea's No. 2 leader, Kim Yong Nam, said Wednesday that the country's stance on additional nuclear tests would depend on U.S. policy, Japan's Kyodo news agency reported.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


But verifying exactly what happened — or even determining conclusively whether it was a nuclear device — could take several more days, if not weeks, officials said Wednesday.

If some Western powers are to be believed, the alleged test announced Monday by Pyongyang had a force of one kiloton or less — equivalent to the explosive force of 1,000 tons of TNT but far less than the 15 kiloton force of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

France’s Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said French, American and other scientists had detected a blast of “relatively limited size.”

“In any case, if this was a nuclear explosion, it would be a case of a failed explosion,” she said on Europe-1 radio.

Speculation could be provocative
Such speculation about a dud test could be read as a challenge by Kim Jong Il, the North’s reclusive leader, to consider carrying out a second test to prove naysayers wrong, analysts said.

“The reaction could be exactly to carry out another explosion, to make sure it succeeds,” said Georges Le Guelte, a nuclear expert at France’s Institute for International and Strategic Research.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15217370/
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Old Oct 12th, 2006, 01:52 AM   #6
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The DJIA and OEX feel toppy to me. Both of them keep running into a wall, pullback then recover some. We are due for a significant retrace IMO.






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Old Oct 12th, 2006, 03:49 AM   #7
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Don't forget to keep an eye on the VIX. Definition and chart by Thomas G. Smith.



The VIX or the CBOE?s Volatility Index is basically a measure of the implied volatility of the OEX index option. Because the OEX index option holds such a dominant position in the marketplace the VIX index is generally considered by traders and investors as a good proxy for implied volatility of the market as a whole. VIX is basically calculated by taking the weighted average of the implied volatilities of eight actively traded OEX calls and puts that are at-the-money with an average time to maturity of 30 days. Because of Wall Street?s appetite for a similar volatility index for the NASDAQ technology market, the CBOE created the VXN or the CBOE NASDAQ Market Volatility Index. This volatility index is widely recognized as the benchmark index for the technology market that is based on the implied volatility of the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) option. The construction and methodology of the VXN is very similar to that of the VIX index.

From a technical perspective both of the volatility indexes mentioned above are popular with traders and investors and are considered to be important market sentiment contrarian indicators. Because these are
contrarian indicators they typically have an inverse relationship to the market. That is, the value of VIX or VXN increases when the market declines and decreases when the market rises. The directional trend and extent of the movement in the VIX or VXN are key factors that may alert traders and investors to a potential turn in the market weeks and months in advance. As with all sentiment indicators the VIX and VXN indexes should be deployed in conjunction with other technical analysis disciplines (ex: trend line analysis, moving average analysis, pattern recognition, retracement and other echnical indicators).

Methodology/Interpretation
The most basic interpretation is as follows: As the volatility indexes increase in value or reach historical highs, the market becomes more defensive as this reflects market participants? increased fear and anxiety. In rare o
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Old Oct 12th, 2006, 10:06 AM   #8
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Distribution count

distribution has jumped 1 step up yesterday.. 2 for both dow and nas..
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Old Oct 12th, 2006, 12:23 PM   #9
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12,000 not far off for the Dow.

How long is this going to continue.
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Old Oct 12th, 2006, 12:45 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amohedas
12,000 not far off for the Dow.

How long is this going to continue.
DOW 15,500,

with a pullback or too.

-------------------------------------------------------

Today's market action:
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