crude oil price

[fairstock]

Originally Posted by laundrysoap

If you try to go short oil in the long term, I think you're gonna lose.

The issue is not real "use" demand, it is paper demand - everyone from Goldman Sachs (who will no doubt be reiterating how confident they are oil will see $85 this year - because they would know) to hedge funds and pension funds looking to diversify and protect against inflation.

The weakening dollar is also very real (Dollar index closed below 80 Friday) and that will cause a bull market in all commodities as the year progresses.

I personally think, a few analysts in Goldman Sachs are out of their minds. If I was his/her boss, I would fired him/her for bring lack of knowledge (in other word, useless person).

[fairstock]

Ben worries about deflation. US government will eventually make billions of dollars from banks dividends before banks buying back prefered stocks. Those billions of dollars will use to pay off deficits.

[fairstock]

Big banks are safe. US government saved them. They are making profits. It's time for them to pay back US government slowly. It's like a college loan. Everything makes perfect sense. Banks didn't get the bailout money for free. They have been paying US government slowly in their prefered shares.

[fairstock]

By the way, I have been losing money on my investmests. If you are following my advises, you might be losing money as well. so...

[Jym]

It's clearly speculation driving the price of oil and gold up
If it was purely dollar driven, we'd be in the same range for both of those we were in in the early and mid 90's

[mmm...Jaz]

Okay...I don't think anyone's paying attention to the videos.

Originally Posted by mmm...Jaz

I talked about it here:

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums...ght=dialoguing

Here's some great videos when "60 Minutes" did an exposé on it called "The Price of Oil"

60 Minutes - The Price of Oil, part 1 of 2



60 Minutes - The Price of Oil, part 2 of 2

[veggrower1955]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1456...t-get-too-long

"Natural gas runs higher on the close to trade above the 50 day moving average; $4.06 in August. Buy the October $5/6 call spreads and sit for the next 60 days. We’ve been preaching this trade all week …did anyone get involved? No exposure currently in crude with clients because we cannot figure out a short-term direction - a break below $67 or above $72 should determine the next leg."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1456...le_lb_articles

"The price index for crude petroleum (domestic production) in the USA should grow by ~45% between June and December 2009 – from $66 to $112. Our simple model suggests a constant price increment over months, but actual monthly growth might not be even. In any case, the total price increase in 2009 should compensate the fall in 2008 and demonstrate some price “overshoot” relative to the trend line, i.e. the price will rise above the trend. "

[veggrower1955]

Originally Posted by veggrower1955

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1456...t-get-too-long

"Natural gas runs higher on the close to trade above the 50 day moving average; $4.06 in August. Buy the October $5/6 call spreads and sit for the next 60 days. We’ve been preaching this trade all week …did anyone get involved? No exposure currently in crude with clients because we cannot figure out a short-term direction - a break below $67 or above $72 should determine the next leg."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1456...le_lb_articles

"The price index for crude petroleum (domestic production) in the USA should grow by ~45% between June and December 2009 – from $66 to $112. Our simple model suggests a constant price increment over months, but actual monthly growth might not be even. In any case, the total price increase in 2009 should compensate the fall in 2008 and demonstrate some price “overshoot” relative to the trend line, i.e. the price will rise above the trend. "

http://thechartpatterntrader.com/

The 1st 7 minutes of today's video covers oil charts in depth

All of the above links are purely informational, I'm not saying any of these views are right. I'm just saying here is some interesting reading.

[Polsih1]

Originally Posted by fairstock

I personally think, a few analysts in Goldman Sachs are out of their minds. If I was his/her boss, I would fired him/her for bring lack of knowledge (in other word, useless person).

It is my belief that oil and many other commodities per say should be not traded via ceritcate, but traded with actuall delivery mandated. that would take alot of the "speculation" and paper driven demand out of the equation, and most likely lead to a more supply/demand related price.
we all know that the "real estate bubble" is the cause of our current recesion, but I believe that $140/barrell oil is what triggered the recesion and why it got so deep.
Inflation is not good period. but unnatural inflation due to massivley overpriced commodites downright sickens an already overstretched economy.

[veggrower1955]

Excellant videos, Jaz. Enron rears its ugly head from the grave and bites us once more.

I know people who worked for PGE in Portland, one of the utilities bought by Enron, who filled their retirement accounts with Enron stock thinking they would retire at 55. All the while, Enron execs were seeling their stock while reassuring employees it was a good investment. Now those people are hoping they can retire by 75. I know an attorney who is still practicing law at 78 because his Enron stock blew up his retirement account. Bad, bad people.