<![CDATA[HotStockMarket Message Boards - Blogs - SJ's Stock Market Blog by StockJock-e]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?u=426 Top rated stock market forums, penny stocks, mid cap, large cap, live chat stock tips and educational videos - HSM Message Boards en Thu, 02 Sep 2010 17:40:39 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/images/misc/rss.jpg <![CDATA[HotStockMarket Message Boards - Blogs - SJ's Stock Market Blog by StockJock-e]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?u=426 Big Euro spike http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=96 Tue, 01 Jun 2010 16:12:17 GMT That was an impressive move we just saw on the Euro, thanks to some intervention from the ECB, the EURUSD pair just moved from 4yr lows +200pips to... That was an impressive move we just saw on the Euro, thanks to some intervention from the ECB, the EURUSD pair just moved from 4yr lows +200pips to 1.2351.

If you dont trade forex, that is a really big move in a very short amount of time.



Since the markets are watching the Euro for direction, if they can move the Euro like this, the markets may follow.

Tail wagging the dog? ]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=96 Morning Call - May 28 http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=95 Fri, 28 May 2010 14:05:40 GMT Good morning traders! Yesterday I said bias was to the upside and very much so if 1090 got taken out on the ES futures. Thankfully that worked out... Good morning traders!

Yesterday I said bias was to the upside and very much so if 1090 got taken out on the ES futures. Thankfully that worked out well and we got to see a sweet melt up!



Today is going to be like the morning after a huge frat party. We all got drunk and partied hard, now we are waking up a little groggy and not really sure who the girl lying next us is.

Im not doing much in the first hour, just watching to see how the market is opening up. Everybody was stumbling over themselves chasing stocks into the close, today we get to calm down a little ahead of a long weekend.

Consumer spending came in for the month of April as the worst since the same period last year, this is before the market tanked, so you can bet that June numbers will be bad.

Europe was relatively flat, not much action there.

AAPL is gapping up, Cramer was pumping it last night, sales of iPad are expected to start rocking in Europe.

Market sectors are mostly in the red which can be expected after the way everything closed on the highs.

It is still to early to tell, but it is possible that once the morning profit takers are done, we could get some lift, but then we have the long weekend ahead of us which could encourage some sellers to step in.

Im watching the Euro which had a great run yesterday, the low 1.23 area is support today, if the Euro can hold the supports, that would be bullish for the market sentiment.



We will probably see some chop to both sides today, Im just SOH (sitting on hands) for the first hour. ]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=95 Real Estate is doing great!.... NOT! http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=93 Thu, 20 May 2010 15:12:02 GMT From our friends Goldman via Zero Hedge:

Delinquencies and Foreclosures Rise Again

Data just released by the Mortgage Bankers' Assn show that more than one-tenth of all US mortgages are delinquent, a new record high. Homes in foreclosure edge up slightly as well. One caveat: the increases are driven by seasonal adjustment, which should probably be taken with a grain of salt given the huge shifts in this sector over the past few years.

Mortgage delinquencies: 10.06% in Q1 (Q4: 9.47%).
Mortgages in foreclosure: 4.63% in Q1 (Q4: 4.58%).

KEY POINTS:

1. The Mortgage Bankers' Assn Q1 report shows a further rise in delinquent mortgages, even in the 30-60 day range, somewhat surprising given the improvement in the economy and labor market in recent months. The increases are spread among both fixed and adjustable-rate mortgages, both prime and subprime; only FHA mortgages saw a lower delinquency rate than the prior quarter. One issue here is that the delinquency figures incorporate a positive seasonal adjustment, which should probably be taken with a grain of salt given the seismic shifts in this sector over the past few years (in fact, the MBA itself notes this issue; see http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/72906.htm). Before seasonal adjustment, the figures generally show improvement.

2. New foreclosures continue at a substantial rate of 1.23%, the 9th consecutive quarter where at least 1% of mortgages went into foreclosure. The total inventory of foreclosures (non-seasonally adjusted) rose to 4.63% of the stock of housing in the MBA's survey (just over 2 million homes in foreclosure).

From Goldman's Jan Hatzius.





]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=93 Black Swan! Dow -998! http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=91 Fri, 07 May 2010 03:33:00 GMT It sounds like this will all boil down to HFT (high frequency trading). We will get greater details in the coming days, I will update more at that... It sounds like this will all boil down to HFT (high frequency trading).

We will get greater details in the coming days, I will update more at that time.

Update 1: The drops in PG and MMM account for 400 Dow points. While the NYSE halted PG for 90 seconds, ECN's like ARCA traded around the temporary halt and at least 4000 trades went through at prices lower than the NYSE halt. Stocks like EXP traded down into the pennies when bids vanished but market sell orders kept coming in.

Update 2: So... its been a few days now since the "flash crash" as its come to be known, and guess what? Still not good explanation.

To quote the character "Data" from Star Trek quoting Sherlock Holmes:

"When you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains--however improbable--must be the truth."

It seems to me that the improbable fact is that what we saw was actual selling. The selling came in hard and the bids got pulled, simple as that.

The only thing the regulators can do is try put in some breakers to try stop it from happening again.


]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=91 More Euro weakness to come says Forex hedge fund http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=83 Wed, 31 Mar 2010 18:22:44 GMT Bloomberg's Asian stock vixen, Betty Lui, talks to John Taylor who runs the $9B hedge fund FX Concepts.

He is calling for the $1.20 level for EURUSD.

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=83 Chart of 1929 - 1933 stock market crash http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=81 Thu, 25 Feb 2010 03:34:38 GMT I updated some charts on the 1929 crash thread, here they are: ---Quote (Originally by StockJock-e)--- Good charts and commentary gentlemen!... I updated some charts on the 1929 crash thread, here they are:

Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post
Good charts and commentary gentlemen! :Thumbsup:

Lets focus for a second on the chart patterns, ignoring the time scale, here are some charts showing how similar the current market has been to the 1929 crash.

I am not advocating that we crash as hard as we did in 1929, but if we are now consolidating, and if that consolidation fails to the downside, then its spooky!!! ;)
]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=81 Time for the market to turn? Part II http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=80 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 04:47:15 GMT That last fib time extension worked out just great! It pretty rare to get an exact correlation like that, but sometimes the universe unfolds... That last fib time extension worked out just great!

It pretty rare to get an exact correlation like that, but sometimes the universe unfolds exactly as it should.

The next possible pivot point is currently being projected out around March 15th. Give three trading sessions of padding to either side of that date. At this moment it us too early to tell if the next turn point will mark a upturn or downturn, however, we have a fair amount of overhead resistance (thick red line) coming up on us this week, add to that the oscillators are starting to look short term overbought.

If we lose that green uptrending support line, then the odds increase that the March fib zone could be a low or test of support.

Keep in mind that it is exceedingly rare for fib time extensions to as accurate as they have been in my recent analysis. Use these indicators as a suggestion of what "may" happen rather than what will happen.

Protect profits and good trading!

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=80 Time for the market to turn? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=79 Thu, 14 Jan 2010 05:44:26 GMT Fibonacci time extension lines are suggesting that a possible pivotal time junction is upon us. This is not an exact science, but my fib... Fibonacci time extension lines are suggesting that a possible pivotal time junction is upon us.

This is not an exact science, but my fib projections did manage to nail the March lows and at least two more minor market peaks.

As you can see in the chart, not every time projection panned out.

There is another fib time zone approaching next week. While this may not mark the exact peak, this signal should be used to hedge yourself if you are long, or if you are aggressive, go for those puts.

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=79 <![CDATA[How are those ARM's coming along?]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=74 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:38:57 GMT This whole mess begin with mortgages, and its about to get a second wind which is why a lot of traders are expecting that the stock market is going... This whole mess begin with mortgages, and its about to get a second wind which is why a lot of traders are expecting that the stock market is going to drop into 2010.

Here is the Adjustable Rate Mortgage schedule beginning in Jan 2007:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=74 Time to get out of longs? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=70 Thu, 22 Oct 2009 21:53:58 GMT The markets have been trading exactly as they should be. The move we have been experiencing to date is a perfect bear market bounce. There may be... The markets have been trading exactly as they should be. The move we have been experiencing to date is a perfect bear market bounce.

There may be some upside in select names, but the cracks are starting to show. Lower volume with increasing price, transports and real estate lagging the markets, all these could be early signals.

Like all bounces this too must end. Here are my expectations for this move:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=70 <![CDATA[Divergence in RSI on 60min S&P 500]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=66 Sat, 12 Sep 2009 18:47:54 GMT While over extended markets can remain over extended, eventually they always do fall.

The S&P may be due for a pull back soon though.

Thelongranger posted this chart yesterday:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=66 Weekend analysis http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=64 Sun, 06 Sep 2009 23:57:59 GMT The markets closed the week on a positive note, leaving us the long weekend to ponder on what is to come. Thelongranger put up this chart for us:... The markets closed the week on a positive note, leaving us the long weekend to ponder on what is to come.

Thelongranger put up this chart for us:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=64 <![CDATA[S&P 500 technical levels]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=62 Wed, 02 Sep 2009 03:22:00 GMT A nice chart by thelongranger in the Stock Market direction thread: Image: http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/2658/sppx.png A nice chart by thelongranger in the Stock Market direction thread:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=62 How far along are we in this bear? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=61 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:33:42 GMT Got a great chart sent to me by milezteg, here is the current bear market compared to a few others: Image:... Got a great chart sent to me by milezteg, here is the current bear market compared to a few others:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=61 Refinery stocks to watch http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=51 Mon, 27 Jul 2009 17:06:21 GMT The biotech stocks I mentioned on June 17th all took off nicely, the biotech ETF made a nice pop this past week, so take profits there. Now lets... The biotech stocks I mentioned on June 17th all took off nicely, the biotech ETF made a nice pop this past week, so take profits there.

Now lets try find something else that has not run too much yet.

As usual, money looks for to go in uptrending markets like these. The refinery stocks have all been priced for doom, but a few have made some important technical patterns.

SUN has a possible double bottom around $22, no confirmation yet, but it has made a nice move off that support. Its good for a trade here until the downtrend gets challenged.



FTO I just noticed got mentioned on Fast Money, just up my alley.

A nice long support level @ $12, just making a move off it now.



Trading stocks near support lowers your risk/reward if you place a stop at that support level. If SUN starts heading back to $22, I will bail and wait to see if the support holds. Same for FTO @$12. ]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=51