HotStockMarket Message Boards - Blogs http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php Top rated stock market forums, penny stocks, mid cap, large cap, live chat stock tips and educational videos - HSM Message Boards en Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:13:20 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/images/misc/rss.jpg HotStockMarket Message Boards - Blogs http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php On SPX http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=75 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:18:10 GMT I haven't posted much lately, I just want to add a little here since I have the chance right now. Obviously the market has run quite a bit since the March lows, and as we approach the end of the year it is almost as if everyone is expecting the market to run out of steam, yet it keeps astounding us month by month. Sadly, trends do not flourish indefinetly - inevitably they fail, and then newer trends are established. We must remember to look at various time frames when analyzing potential moves, and when looking at the broader picture we see that this rally is stupendous in nature, challenging even the magnitude of the collapse in strength and ferocity.

There are a few important things to note when looking at the market from a macro perspective. First off, the major thing you can notice here is how the market is approaching a ceiling here at the 50% retracement mark (1121) from the 07 highs to the 09 lows. Obviously, if this level is broken, and we close above it for a day or two, the market will likely make another significant push up (a push more severe than the recent undulations we've been seeing). Next, observe the RSI here, it has held a strong trendline since late 08, but has been weakening since early September. Setting a series of lower highs and lower lows, it is looking like it will be breaking that trendline soon. The MACD tells us a similar story, a relatively smooth rise since late 08, followed by a weakening in strength leading into a crossover, indicating a potential shift in market direction.



Looking a little closer here, we can see more detail in the situation we are facing. It looks like the market wants to test this trendline from August again. Note, on Thursday, we did bounce off of the 20dma (1084), which is strengthened by that same level acting as support for roughly the last two weeks. Despite that, it does look like the market is setting up to give back some gains before showing clear signs of its intentions. I do think that if 1085 (S1) and 1075 (S2) are not held today (Friday), then we will see a fairly quick move to the 50dma (106x). In any case, the major support level should be the trendline, followed by a last case scenario (for bulls) at 1033. If we drop below these levels, I don't think there will be much hope for the market to rally to new highs this year. One last thing to note here is that, though the market has been inching higher these past few months, the conviction in the moves has been steadly declining. This can be seen in the daily chart through the divergance in the RSI and MACD.



All in all, I think we are topping out here, and we may see a longer term drop soon after some chop in this range. We are closing in on the upper trendline from this major move down, which will certainly be a major factor in any further ascent/descent we see from here. In my own opinion, I think we will see-saw here through the end of the year, possibly testing support at the 200dma by years end. ]]> imsabah http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=75 <![CDATA[How are those ARM's coming along?]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=74 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:38:57 GMT This whole mess begin with mortgages, and its about to get a second wind which is why a lot of traders are expecting that the stock market is going... This whole mess begin with mortgages, and its about to get a second wind which is why a lot of traders are expecting that the stock market is going to drop into 2010.

Here is the Adjustable Rate Mortgage schedule beginning in Jan 2007:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=74 The importance of Profit Taking http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=73 Sat, 31 Oct 2009 00:47:06 GMT I was going to make this into a video because it would be way more interesting (and funny :D), but due to technical difficulties and the fact that... I was going to make this into a video because it would be way more interesting (and funny :D), but due to technical difficulties and the fact that Demonoid has been down for some time, I had to do it the old fashion way. :mad:

Profit taking is one of the most basic, yet crucial parts to being a successful trader. Taking profits early will not only preserve your initial capital, but also lock in gains so that you are guaranteed to make money on the trade. Think of it as an insurance policy. When the opportunity to take profits is there, it acts as a fail-safe mechanism to a good trade. Here I will show you a perfect example of profit taking from a trade of mine from September 2nd to the 3rd. I trade penny stocks (No pun intended Simon), so the importance of profit taking is even more important, due to the unpredictable nature of these stocks. This is one of my profit taking methods for stocks that go on big runs.


This is the chart for PWRM from September 2nd to the 3rd.



This is a screenshot of my executions for this trade.



My method for taking profits on plays like this is to sell half my shares when I have a 100% gain, then half of my remaining shares at 200%, then half at 300%, and so on and so forth. Sure, I could hold all of my shares and potentially make a lot more money, but with the unpredictable nature of penny stocks, I leave nothing to chance. Ask any seasoned trader about the importance of profit taking. It is absolutely crucial.

So as you can see, I sold half of my shares at .065, another half at .095, then the rest at .115. I figured the top was between .11 and .12 because as you can see, the long green candle topped out at about .12, then the price pulled back to .10 on the next candle. It tested highs again but failed to make the same high, so I placed a limit order for .115 which quickly executed, and as you can see the share price plummeted soon after. If I had held all my shares I could have risked a lot of my gains because of greediness.

So, remember to take profits and don't get too greedy. Greed will more times than not, turn a potentially great trade into a bummer trade. :Thumbsup: ]]> NoJobRob http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=73 <![CDATA[Simon's Lotto Watchlist]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=72 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:57:24 GMT Some high risk lotto plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by simonyadig View Post
RVGD - This broke through some long term resistance on heavy volume, now it's pulling back on lighter volume. It's also worth noting that the price is now trading on top of the weekly 50 MA. At the moment the spread is .0003 x .0004.



BBDA - You can see that the price has been struggling to get above and stay above the 50 MA, but it's close to doing that now. If it can start trading above that, it should have more upward momentum and could be good for a run. Spread is currently .0004 x .0005



HRNF - Currently trading at .0004 x .0005 and the 50 MA is right near .0005. There were a couple volume spikes in the past 6 months and those are what's responsible for the price testing the 50.



MONA - Other than the daily 50 MA being on top of the 200 MA, I really like the fact that the price broke over the weekly 50 MA and has been testing it for support. As long as it holds, this could be the bottom for a while and the start of a longer term trend reversal.



IVIT - This has already made one strong move up, but now it's pulling back and consolidating. The price is trading above the weekly 50 MA and the angle of the 50 is sharply up. Current spread is .001 x .0011, though it's been bouncing around a bit.



PMDP - Similar to IVIT, this already made the first jump, now it's consolidating and pulling back some. If it can break that previous peak and resistance around .0015, then it's set to run hard. Spread is .001 x .0011.
]]> simonyadig http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=72 Seeping Cracks? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=71 Sat, 24 Oct 2009 19:23:03 GMT I climbed the CN Tower today, a total of 1776 steps. I'm tired... so, congratulate me! Plus, its been a while since I lost posted in my blog? Time to update you folks on what I see while I recover from my stair climbing.

If you haven't read my previous blog, please do so here: Pullback or No Pullback?

Onto some Technical Analysis?


As I mentioned in my previous blog, I have been quite bullish for the past while. I still remain bullish but I have began pulling my money out of the stock market. And I am sure most of you have noticed that trend with these recent heavy sell offs. Although the uptrend is still intact, we should remain cautious because the lack of momentum and volume have questioned the durability of this/or any rally.

Remember I mentioned that I am watching some key indications to show me any weakness. Those key indications are BKX, DJT, NDX, IYR, VIX, and the US Dollar (UUP). Shall we take a look at those?












Compared to my previous blog, notice any seeping cracks? Although the S&P appears to be invincible at the moment, their is some weakness behind its move. So what am I looking for to signal a potential sell off?

BKX - Break of 46 support.
NDX - Break of 1725 support.
DJT - Break of 3800 support.
IYR - Break of 40 support.
VIX - Break of 26 resistance.
UUP - Break of 22.50 resistance.

I also watch copper and crude oil to determine strength/weakness in the market but I'm slightly too tired to post those charts up at the moment. Heh. ;)


Don't get me wrong, I still think we have one more last push to the upside, I'm looking at 1180, but I am just saying that this aggressive rally is starting to get tired. You can feed a man steroids to enhance his performance but if you keep feeding him steroids, his arms are bound to pop eventually.

To understand why I watch these indicators, one must know the weighting of the S&P. It doesn't explain everything but it'll give you a general idea of why individuals should watch certain sectors instead of just the broad markets. Just one of these larger sectors can bring down the market, just have to watch which one will lead.


Point being, 2010 has many unknown mysteries to it. The Debt-to-GDP is not something to be ignored. Brace yourself! Time will tell.

...and I'm off to a quick nap. My legs are killing me! ]]> Mr. Winky http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=71 Time to get out of longs? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=70 Thu, 22 Oct 2009 21:53:58 GMT The markets have been trading exactly as they should be. The move we have been experiencing to date is a perfect bear market bounce. There may be... The markets have been trading exactly as they should be. The move we have been experiencing to date is a perfect bear market bounce.

There may be some upside in select names, but the cracks are starting to show. Lower volume with increasing price, transports and real estate lagging the markets, all these could be early signals.

Like all bounces this too must end. Here are my expectations for this move:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=70 New Bull Market? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=69 Sat, 17 Oct 2009 22:16:04 GMT Using the 350/25 ema crossover for the past 20 years on the S&P 500 has accurately determined new bull and bear markets. As you Can see there were 4 bull markets, 3 bear markets, and 1 period of indecision indicated by the yellow box (this was the only period in the past 20 years where a false signal was given).

Currently the 25ema has crossed over the 350ema. Are we in for a new bull market?


Chart last updated Oct 17


Click here for larger image
]]> Crazed98 http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=69 Pullback or No Pullback? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=68 Sat, 19 Sep 2009 05:39:07 GMT That seems to be the common question these days. Most people claim that we are due for a pullback; perhaps that is true. But following the herd is... That seems to be the common question these days. Most people claim that we are due for a pullback; perhaps that is true.

But following the herd is not always the best course of action. Personally, I've found being contrarian to the herd has profited me well as opposed to following the herd.

Think of it this way, if the herd are saying sell, keep an open mind to buy. What's the worst that can happen? As long as you put your stops in place, you should technically only lose 5% of your cash. If it does prove valid, you will come out with a profit.

Not saying to do this all the time but keep an open mind to it. Do your TA, study the market behavior, and then make your own personal judgment.

Shall we move onto some technical analysis?


As far as I am concerned, I would be buying any dips available at the moment. Am I bullish? Yes, to an extent. I do think we are due for a pullback but I wasn't going to sit on the sidelines waiting while I see gains before my eyes.

I'm going to post 5 charts that I am watching to confirm any real downside.











Notice anything similar? All of the above charts are in a nice uptrend with some strong support.

To confirm for any real downleg, the following need to happen:

BKX = Break below 42.50
NDX = Break below 1625
DJT= Break below 3600
DJTREA (IYR) = Break below 35.00
VIX = Break above 28.50

If all 5 of the above happen, then I will start to change my stance in turning from bullish to bearish. However, I will continue to remain cautious.

Let's assume that we do pullback to those support levels, what happens if we do not break and bounce instead?

What I plan on doing is slowly scale into some equities that I have been watching (HUM, BDX, PBR, etc). I will buy small positions at the support level (or sell naked uncovered puts looking to get assigned). If we do bounce, then I managed to catch some upside. If we break, I will hedge with puts and slowly scale into those positions again.

That's my basic strategy and that is what I have been doing up to now. It has treated me very nicely. ;)

Remember though, what I post now can easily change the next week. The key is to move with the markets. If you are stuck thinking pullback pullback, it may never come. Patience and adaptability is the key to successful investing/trading, IMO.

Also, here's some food for thought for you Canadians.


Considering where we are, our Debt-to-GDP ratio isn't as bad as compared to our Southern counterpart.


A lot of problems and uncertainty lay ahead. Raise as much capital as you can in the meantime and take your profits when possible.

Good luck trading/investing folks! :Thumbsup: ]]> Mr. Winky http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=68 <![CDATA[Rob's Bottom Bouncer Technique]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=67 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 02:22:43 GMT You need good charting software like Equityfeed for example, to pull this off. TD Ameritrade's Strategy Desk works too. This is one of my plays from May 1st, 2009. Here's the 15 minute chart:



What you do is set up a filter that looks for stocks that have fallen 50% or more. Equityfeed is perfect because you can screen all intraday activity, in real time. Pay attention to the volume and number of trades, because that is key to liquidity.

Watch the stock as it falls, and finds support. When you see a sudden influx of volume, and the price leveling off, then that's usually a good place to buy. The longer it holds at that level the better. My personal style is to wait for an uptick to confirm the bottom. I've had over 80% success doing this, but be advised that it is very risky. I only put $300 tops into these plays, but I can usually turn it into $900 at least.

Pay attention to your indicators too. I look for a temporary increase in RSI, OBV, and Volume. Good luck and happy trading. I'll be back with more soon. Just getting started. Hey, I'm not NoJobRob for nothing! :LOL: ]]> NoJobRob http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=67 <![CDATA[Divergence in RSI on 60min S&P 500]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=66 Sat, 12 Sep 2009 18:47:54 GMT While over extended markets can remain over extended, eventually they always do fall.

The S&P may be due for a pull back soon though.

Thelongranger posted this chart yesterday:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=66 Weekend analysis http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=64 Sun, 06 Sep 2009 23:57:59 GMT The markets closed the week on a positive note, leaving us the long weekend to ponder on what is to come. Thelongranger put up this chart for us:... The markets closed the week on a positive note, leaving us the long weekend to ponder on what is to come.

Thelongranger put up this chart for us:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=64 Candlesticks with a different purpose http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=63 Sun, 06 Sep 2009 20:17:02 GMT I downloaded a pdf file from the East Lansing Police Department which has annual crime statistics. I entered them into Microsoft Excel and plotted a... I downloaded a pdf file from the East Lansing Police Department which has annual crime statistics. I entered them into Microsoft Excel and plotted a candlestick chart. As of now, it only shows bullish and bearish (uncivil and civil, respectfully) real body's, because I need the monthly data in order to redefine the highs and lows, thus creating wicks. I contacted the ELPD and asked them to send me monthly, weekly, and daily data for the last 5 years. I'm developing a system to predict future crime rates, just as candles are used in the markets to predict price movements. The real fun starts when I can apply technical indicators to it and see if my system works. Wish me luck. :) ]]> NoJobRob http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=63 <![CDATA[S&P 500 technical levels]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=62 Wed, 02 Sep 2009 03:22:00 GMT A nice chart by thelongranger in the Stock Market direction thread: Image: http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/2658/sppx.png A nice chart by thelongranger in the Stock Market direction thread:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=62 How far along are we in this bear? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=61 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:33:42 GMT Got a great chart sent to me by milezteg, here is the current bear market compared to a few others: Image:... Got a great chart sent to me by milezteg, here is the current bear market compared to a few others:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=61 <![CDATA[Alright. Let's get started.]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=60 Sun, 30 Aug 2009 03:45:28 GMT *cracks knuckles*

Okay, so, my trading strategy is rather simple: To buy at support and wait for the pop. It's safe, it's the most profitable, and it works. Over the last 7 months that I've been trading I've managed to turn my seed money of $400 into thousands. I don't even work anymore. :D

It's pretty commonsensical actually. When I first started I looked at the line chart and took note of the low points over the last 10 days. Then, I'd put in a buy order at that price, or at least very close to it and wait for it to fill. Sometimes it took a few days, but it was worth it. My first trade I turned my $400 into $700. I was psyched.

My strategy has a ridiculous success percentage. When I stick to my rules and technique I have 9 out of 10 successful trades. My bad trades usually only happen when I break my rules. So, if you want to follow my trades, then just see my video thread in the watchlist section. If you are new and would like to ask me any questions, feel free. If I don't know the answer to your question then I will either find out, or refer you to someone who knows.

Alright. Time to get off of here. Happy trading, good luck, and God Speed. :Thumbsup: ]]> NoJobRob http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=60