HotStockMarket Message Boards - Blogs http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php Top rated stock market forums, penny stocks, mid cap, large cap, live chat stock tips and educational videos - HSM Message Boards en Sun, 14 Mar 2010 16:41:24 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/images/misc/rss.jpg HotStockMarket Message Boards - Blogs http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php Chart of 1929 - 1933 stock market crash http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=81 Thu, 25 Feb 2010 03:34:38 GMT I updated some charts on the 1929 crash thread, here they are: ---Quote (Originally by StockJock-e)--- Good charts and commentary gentlemen!... I updated some charts on the 1929 crash thread, here they are:

Quote:
Originally Posted by StockJock-e View Post
Good charts and commentary gentlemen! :Thumbsup:

Lets focus for a second on the chart patterns, ignoring the time scale, here are some charts showing how similar the current market has been to the 1929 crash.

I am not advocating that we crash as hard as we did in 1929, but if we are now consolidating, and if that consolidation fails to the downside, then its spooky!!! ;)
]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=81 Time for the market to turn? Part II http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=80 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 04:47:15 GMT That last fib time extension worked out just great! It pretty rare to get an exact correlation like that, but sometimes the universe unfolds... That last fib time extension worked out just great!

It pretty rare to get an exact correlation like that, but sometimes the universe unfolds exactly as it should.

The next possible pivot point is currently being projected out around March 15th. Give three trading sessions of padding to either side of that date. At this moment it us too early to tell if the next turn point will mark a upturn or downturn, however, we have a fair amount of overhead resistance (thick red line) coming up on us this week, add to that the oscillators are starting to look short term overbought.

If we lose that green uptrending support line, then the odds increase that the March fib zone could be a low or test of support.

Keep in mind that it is exceedingly rare for fib time extensions to as accurate as they have been in my recent analysis. Use these indicators as a suggestion of what "may" happen rather than what will happen.

Protect profits and good trading!

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=80 Time for the market to turn? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=79 Thu, 14 Jan 2010 05:44:26 GMT Fibonacci time extension lines are suggesting that a possible pivotal time junction is upon us. This is not an exact science, but my fib... Fibonacci time extension lines are suggesting that a possible pivotal time junction is upon us.

This is not an exact science, but my fib projections did manage to nail the March lows and at least two more minor market peaks.

As you can see in the chart, not every time projection panned out.

There is another fib time zone approaching next week. While this may not mark the exact peak, this signal should be used to hedge yourself if you are long, or if you are aggressive, go for those puts.

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=79 Free Trader Tools http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=78 Tue, 12 Jan 2010 00:11:42 GMT I've been meaning to start a blog here at HSM, in an effort to share a few of the many things I've learned from other HSMers (and even a few things I've discovered myself). Let's start with something fun, shall we? I mean who doesn't like free stuff?!!

Free Charts

Hands down, the best free charts in the UNIVERSE are from thinkorswim's papermoney desktop trading platform; they require you sign up for an account and download the software. However, you don't even have to fund the account! The level 2 portion of this software is delayed, but the charts are streamed live. This software has pretty much any technical indicator and time frame you could imagine, not to mention pattern recognition and endless customization (...did I mention it's free?). If you've got a passion or interest in Technical Analysis, heck, if you think you just might SOMEDAY, you have simply got to try this out...

https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/disp...age=paperMoney

Stockcharts is my favorite place for free daily and weekly charts, although the free data only goes back 3 years. Customize your chart with up to 3 overlays, up to 3 indicators, and a time frame of 1 month to 3 years; don't forget about the "Linkable Version" hyperlink, too. This allows you to bookmark your customized chart and just plug in a stock ticker. Unfortunately, you can't hyperlink chart images on HSM... Also, this is one of the few places that has the PPO indicator, useful for finding those PPO/ADX pinch plays; here's a daily pincher chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ELY...d=p80328949440

Bigcharts has 3 things that stockcharts doesn't. They have free (albeit, delayed) intraday charts (hourly, 15 minute, 1 minute), you can hyperlink their chart images on HSM, and their data goes back at least a decade, in most cases. Despite that, I prefer Stockcharts but frequent Bigcharts often enough to make them valuable. The biggest turnoff is the lack of a linkable, bookmarkable chart that allows you to just plug in a ticker and hit refresh; you have to set up your chart manually each time you visit the site... There are fewer indicators and customization options, also.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/



Finviz and Profitspi are part of the HSM experience; [CHART] tags and [PCHART] tags in HSM member's posts are hyperlinked to charts from Finviz and Profitspi, respectively. Finviz sports simple pattern recognition and is the best place, imo, to get the combined technical and fundamental picture of an individual stock/ticker; they also have the best free fundamental stock screener, too. Profitspi has data on tickers that stockcharts doesn't include in their database, especially penny stocks (I can't count the number of times I've come across this phenomenom). They don't have customization like the others and lack the VBP indicator (one of my favorites); they do rival Stockcharts on other indicator selection and you can bookmark a link to your customized chart set-up, similar to Stockcharts.

http://www.finviz.com/



http://www.profitspi.com/stock-chart...&ca=1814034805 (one of my set-ups)



Stock Screeners

In a word, Stockfetcher. Free entertainment is a good thing and stockfetcher can keep the most obsessive trader busy as he plods through his search for the golden combination of indicators (a stage of trader development that most of us will go through...)... There's not much more I can tell you besides what has already been mentioned in this thread: Stockfetcher filter exchange (created by the man himself, StockJock-e)

Unfortunately, Stockfetcher only returns 5 stocks on a scan unless you are a paid subscriber... Fortunately, there's an easy way around this; modify the "close" line in small price increments:

Instead of:
and close is between 1 and 5
Try:
and close is between 0 and .01
then:
and close is between .01 and .05
then:
and close is between .05 and .10
etc.

Tweak those values and make numerous custom scans, have fun playing around with this fabulous FREE tool! Try out the 2.0 flash version, too. Consider contributing to the thread ;)

http://www.stockfetcher.com/

Finviz's screener is organized under 4 tabs titled "Descriptive", "Fundamental", "Technical", and "All". This screener is not only pimp, it's user-friendly; I use this for the bigboards. Searching for P/E ratios under 10 has never been easier, wheeee! It has replaced Yahoo Finance (in my book) as the premier stock research website due to it's clean look and wealth of well-organized information. Definitely worth a bookmark and your time.

http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx

GLHF! ]]> 22rowdy http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=78 What Is The Market Telling Me? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=77 Sun, 29 Nov 2009 07:10:38 GMT Sometimes people focus too much on technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics, etc) to help them forecast/predict market movements. What these... Sometimes people focus too much on technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics, etc) to help them forecast/predict market movements. What these people do not realize is that you can't rely on just these indicators alone - they just explain the market in their own special way.

Most industry professionals prefer the study of market breadth. What is market breadth? Market breadth is "a technical analysis theory that predicts the strength of the market according to the number of stocks that advance or decline in a particular trading day." (Investopedia). In no way is market breadth a forecasting tool. But it is a tool that should be used in gauging internal strength of the markets.

Onto some technical analysis? :)






The coming weeks should be interesting - anything can happen. I am sure more catalysts are coming in the near future that will determine the direction of the markets. ;)

Good luck trading folks. :Thumbsup: ]]> Mr. Winky http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=77 On SPX http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=75 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:18:10 GMT I haven't posted much lately, I just want to add a little here since I have the chance right now. Obviously the market has run quite a bit since the March lows, and as we approach the end of the year it is almost as if everyone is expecting the market to run out of steam, yet it keeps astounding us month by month. Sadly, trends do not flourish indefinetly - inevitably they fail, and then newer trends are established. We must remember to look at various time frames when analyzing potential moves, and when looking at the broader picture we see that this rally is stupendous in nature, challenging even the magnitude of the collapse in strength and ferocity.

There are a few important things to note when looking at the market from a macro perspective. First off, the major thing you can notice here is how the market is approaching a ceiling here at the 50% retracement mark (1121) from the 07 highs to the 09 lows. Obviously, if this level is broken, and we close above it for a day or two, the market will likely make another significant push up (a push more severe than the recent undulations we've been seeing). Next, observe the RSI here, it has held a strong trendline since late 08, but has been weakening since early September. Setting a series of lower highs and lower lows, it is looking like it will be breaking that trendline soon. The MACD tells us a similar story, a relatively smooth rise since late 08, followed by a weakening in strength leading into a crossover, indicating a potential shift in market direction.



Looking a little closer here, we can see more detail in the situation we are facing. It looks like the market wants to test this trendline from August again. Note, on Thursday, we did bounce off of the 20dma (1084), which is strengthened by that same level acting as support for roughly the last two weeks. Despite that, it does look like the market is setting up to give back some gains before showing clear signs of its intentions. I do think that if 1085 (S1) and 1075 (S2) are not held today (Friday), then we will see a fairly quick move to the 50dma (106x). In any case, the major support level should be the trendline, followed by a last case scenario (for bulls) at 1033. If we drop below these levels, I don't think there will be much hope for the market to rally to new highs this year. One last thing to note here is that, though the market has been inching higher these past few months, the conviction in the moves has been steadly declining. This can be seen in the daily chart through the divergance in the RSI and MACD.



All in all, I think we are topping out here, and we may see a longer term drop soon after some chop in this range. We are closing in on the upper trendline from this major move down, which will certainly be a major factor in any further ascent/descent we see from here. In my own opinion, I think we will see-saw here through the end of the year, possibly testing support at the 200dma by years end. ]]> imsabah http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=75 <![CDATA[How are those ARM's coming along?]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=74 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:38:57 GMT This whole mess begin with mortgages, and its about to get a second wind which is why a lot of traders are expecting that the stock market is going... This whole mess begin with mortgages, and its about to get a second wind which is why a lot of traders are expecting that the stock market is going to drop into 2010.

Here is the Adjustable Rate Mortgage schedule beginning in Jan 2007:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=74 The importance of Profit Taking http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=73 Sat, 31 Oct 2009 00:47:06 GMT I was going to make this into a video because it would be way more interesting (and funny :D), but due to technical difficulties and the fact that... I was going to make this into a video because it would be way more interesting (and funny :D), but due to technical difficulties and the fact that Demonoid has been down for some time, I had to do it the old fashion way. :mad:

Profit taking is one of the most basic, yet crucial parts to being a successful trader. Taking profits early will not only preserve your initial capital, but also lock in gains so that you are guaranteed to make money on the trade. Think of it as an insurance policy. When the opportunity to take profits is there, it acts as a fail-safe mechanism to a good trade. Here I will show you a perfect example of profit taking from a trade of mine from September 2nd to the 3rd. I trade penny stocks (No pun intended Simon), so the importance of profit taking is even more important, due to the unpredictable nature of these stocks. This is one of my profit taking methods for stocks that go on big runs.


This is the chart for PWRM from September 2nd to the 3rd.



This is a screenshot of my executions for this trade.



My method for taking profits on plays like this is to sell half my shares when I have a 100% gain, then half of my remaining shares at 200%, then half at 300%, and so on and so forth. Sure, I could hold all of my shares and potentially make a lot more money, but with the unpredictable nature of penny stocks, I leave nothing to chance. Ask any seasoned trader about the importance of profit taking. It is absolutely crucial.

So as you can see, I sold half of my shares at .065, another half at .095, then the rest at .115. I figured the top was between .11 and .12 because as you can see, the long green candle topped out at about .12, then the price pulled back to .10 on the next candle. It tested highs again but failed to make the same high, so I placed a limit order for .115 which quickly executed, and as you can see the share price plummeted soon after. If I had held all my shares I could have risked a lot of my gains because of greediness.

So, remember to take profits and don't get too greedy. Greed will more times than not, turn a potentially great trade into a bummer trade. :Thumbsup: ]]> NoJobRob http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=73 <![CDATA[Simon's Lotto Watchlist]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=72 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:57:24 GMT Some high risk lotto plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by simonyadig View Post
RVGD - This broke through some long term resistance on heavy volume, now it's pulling back on lighter volume. It's also worth noting that the price is now trading on top of the weekly 50 MA. At the moment the spread is .0003 x .0004.



BBDA - You can see that the price has been struggling to get above and stay above the 50 MA, but it's close to doing that now. If it can start trading above that, it should have more upward momentum and could be good for a run. Spread is currently .0004 x .0005



HRNF - Currently trading at .0004 x .0005 and the 50 MA is right near .0005. There were a couple volume spikes in the past 6 months and those are what's responsible for the price testing the 50.



MONA - Other than the daily 50 MA being on top of the 200 MA, I really like the fact that the price broke over the weekly 50 MA and has been testing it for support. As long as it holds, this could be the bottom for a while and the start of a longer term trend reversal.



IVIT - This has already made one strong move up, but now it's pulling back and consolidating. The price is trading above the weekly 50 MA and the angle of the 50 is sharply up. Current spread is .001 x .0011, though it's been bouncing around a bit.



PMDP - Similar to IVIT, this already made the first jump, now it's consolidating and pulling back some. If it can break that previous peak and resistance around .0015, then it's set to run hard. Spread is .001 x .0011.
]]> simonyadig http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=72 Seeping Cracks? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=71 Sat, 24 Oct 2009 19:23:03 GMT I climbed the CN Tower today, a total of 1776 steps. I'm tired... so, congratulate me! Plus, its been a while since I lost posted in my blog? Time to update you folks on what I see while I recover from my stair climbing.

If you haven't read my previous blog, please do so here: Pullback or No Pullback?

Onto some Technical Analysis?


As I mentioned in my previous blog, I have been quite bullish for the past while. I still remain bullish but I have began pulling my money out of the stock market. And I am sure most of you have noticed that trend with these recent heavy sell offs. Although the uptrend is still intact, we should remain cautious because the lack of momentum and volume have questioned the durability of this/or any rally.

Remember I mentioned that I am watching some key indications to show me any weakness. Those key indications are BKX, DJT, NDX, IYR, VIX, and the US Dollar (UUP). Shall we take a look at those?












Compared to my previous blog, notice any seeping cracks? Although the S&P appears to be invincible at the moment, their is some weakness behind its move. So what am I looking for to signal a potential sell off?

BKX - Break of 46 support.
NDX - Break of 1725 support.
DJT - Break of 3800 support.
IYR - Break of 40 support.
VIX - Break of 26 resistance.
UUP - Break of 22.50 resistance.

I also watch copper and crude oil to determine strength/weakness in the market but I'm slightly too tired to post those charts up at the moment. Heh. ;)


Don't get me wrong, I still think we have one more last push to the upside, I'm looking at 1180, but I am just saying that this aggressive rally is starting to get tired. You can feed a man steroids to enhance his performance but if you keep feeding him steroids, his arms are bound to pop eventually.

To understand why I watch these indicators, one must know the weighting of the S&P. It doesn't explain everything but it'll give you a general idea of why individuals should watch certain sectors instead of just the broad markets. Just one of these larger sectors can bring down the market, just have to watch which one will lead.


Point being, 2010 has many unknown mysteries to it. The Debt-to-GDP is not something to be ignored. Brace yourself! Time will tell.

...and I'm off to a quick nap. My legs are killing me! ]]> Mr. Winky http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=71 Time to get out of longs? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=70 Thu, 22 Oct 2009 21:53:58 GMT The markets have been trading exactly as they should be. The move we have been experiencing to date is a perfect bear market bounce. There may be... The markets have been trading exactly as they should be. The move we have been experiencing to date is a perfect bear market bounce.

There may be some upside in select names, but the cracks are starting to show. Lower volume with increasing price, transports and real estate lagging the markets, all these could be early signals.

Like all bounces this too must end. Here are my expectations for this move:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=70 New Bull Market? Update http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=69 Sat, 17 Oct 2009 22:16:04 GMT Using the 350/25 ema crossover for the past 20 years on the S&P 500 has accurately determined new bull and bear markets. As you Can see there were 4 bull markets, 3 bear markets, and 1 period of indecision indicated by the yellow box (this was the only period in the past 20 years where a false signal was given).

Currently the 25ema has crossed over the 350ema. Are we in for a new bull market?


Chart last updated Oct 17


Click here for larger image
]]> Crazed98 http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=69 Pullback or No Pullback? http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=68 Sat, 19 Sep 2009 05:39:07 GMT That seems to be the common question these days. Most people claim that we are due for a pullback; perhaps that is true. But following the herd is... That seems to be the common question these days. Most people claim that we are due for a pullback; perhaps that is true.

But following the herd is not always the best course of action. Personally, I've found being contrarian to the herd has profited me well as opposed to following the herd.

Think of it this way, if the herd are saying sell, keep an open mind to buy. What's the worst that can happen? As long as you put your stops in place, you should technically only lose 5% of your cash. If it does prove valid, you will come out with a profit.

Not saying to do this all the time but keep an open mind to it. Do your TA, study the market behavior, and then make your own personal judgment.

Shall we move onto some technical analysis?


As far as I am concerned, I would be buying any dips available at the moment. Am I bullish? Yes, to an extent. I do think we are due for a pullback but I wasn't going to sit on the sidelines waiting while I see gains before my eyes.

I'm going to post 5 charts that I am watching to confirm any real downside.











Notice anything similar? All of the above charts are in a nice uptrend with some strong support.

To confirm for any real downleg, the following need to happen:

BKX = Break below 42.50
NDX = Break below 1625
DJT= Break below 3600
DJTREA (IYR) = Break below 35.00
VIX = Break above 28.50

If all 5 of the above happen, then I will start to change my stance in turning from bullish to bearish. However, I will continue to remain cautious.

Let's assume that we do pullback to those support levels, what happens if we do not break and bounce instead?

What I plan on doing is slowly scale into some equities that I have been watching (HUM, BDX, PBR, etc). I will buy small positions at the support level (or sell naked uncovered puts looking to get assigned). If we do bounce, then I managed to catch some upside. If we break, I will hedge with puts and slowly scale into those positions again.

That's my basic strategy and that is what I have been doing up to now. It has treated me very nicely. ;)

Remember though, what I post now can easily change the next week. The key is to move with the markets. If you are stuck thinking pullback pullback, it may never come. Patience and adaptability is the key to successful investing/trading, IMO.

Also, here's some food for thought for you Canadians.


Considering where we are, our Debt-to-GDP ratio isn't as bad as compared to our Southern counterpart.


A lot of problems and uncertainty lay ahead. Raise as much capital as you can in the meantime and take your profits when possible.

Good luck trading/investing folks! :Thumbsup: ]]> Mr. Winky http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=68 <![CDATA[NoJobRob's Intraday Bottom Bouncer Technique using a 15 min chart]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=67 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 02:22:43 GMT You need good charting software like Equityfeed for example, to pull this off. TD Ameritrade's Strategy Desk works too. This is one of my plays from May 1st, 2009. Here's the 15 minute chart:



What you do is set up a filter that looks for stocks that have fallen 50% or more. Equityfeed is perfect because you can screen all intraday activity, in real time. Pay attention to the volume and number of trades, because that is key to liquidity.

Watch the stock as it falls, and finds support. When you see a sudden influx of volume, and the price leveling off, then that's usually a good place to buy. The longer it holds at that level the better. My personal style is to wait for an uptick to confirm the bottom. I've had over 80% success doing this, but be advised that it is very risky. I only put $300 tops into these plays, but I can usually turn it into $900 at least.

Pay attention to your indicators too. I look for a temporary increase in RSI, OBV, and Volume. Good luck and happy trading. I'll be back with more soon. Just getting started. Hey, I'm not NoJobRob for nothing! :LOL: ]]> NoJobRob http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=67 <![CDATA[Divergence in RSI on 60min S&P 500]]> http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=66 Sat, 12 Sep 2009 18:47:54 GMT While over extended markets can remain over extended, eventually they always do fall.

The S&P may be due for a pull back soon though.

Thelongranger posted this chart yesterday:

]]> StockJock-e http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/blog.php?b=66